Sunday, September 17, 2006

New Oscar Predix: The Men

Previous Updates: The Women
Post Toronto, it's time to rethink Oscar Predix.

BEST ACTOR [full page o' details]
If the Toronto buzz holds, a soon-to-be legendary performance by Forrest Whitaker will be duking it out with the legendary actor who has never won: Peter O'Toole. Which means (if the buzz holds) that it may be something like 1992 again when Oscar had to make it up to the legendary Al Pacino allowing him to beat the still ascending Denzel Washington for the gold.

new predictions:
Matt Damon The Good Shepherd or The Departed
Richard Griffiths History Boys
Peter O'Toole Venus
Brad Pitt Babel
Forest Whitaker The Last King of Scotland

If this race stays as weak as it seems right now, Ben Affleck's Hollywoodland handlers might want to think about shifting him over here (although they'd have a better chance of winning in supporting).

Speaking of...

BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR [full page o' details]
I still think that when we get closer to Dreamgirls release that the men are going to start getting attention. This could come down to comeback (Murphy) vs. comeback (Affleck). Or its entirely possible we haven't a clue... Supporting clears up last after all.

new predictions:
Ben Affleck Hollywoodland
Brian Cox Running With Scissors
Tobey Maguire The Good German
Eddie Murphy Dreamgirls
Jack Nicholson The Departed

Earlier Related Posts: Hollywoodland * Favorites (so far): Actor * Favorites (so far): Supporting Actor * Top 100 Actors of the Aughts *

Tags: Jack Nicholson, Ben Affleck, Eddie Murphy, Oscars, films, Academy Awards, movies

27 comments:

Gerry said...

After having been at Toronto - where these were the two performances that received as much talk between them as all other male performances combined - I agree with the assessment of everyone (including Nathaniel) has of the race. Whitaker vs. O'Toole. Barring some sort of real surprise.

Whitaker is way better but I think Venus will be deemed 'good enough' for O'Toole to win. Who wants to send Peter O'Toole home having lost for the eighth time?

The category is indeed very weak, which got O'Neil and Wells talking about the same issue "Peter O'Toole for sure...Forest Whitaker for sure...and I don't know who else there is". I'd have more faith in Brad if he was an actual lead. I feel he could have a shot at the win in supporting (much like Clooney last year).

By the way, Jackie Earle Haley is the person you have to add to your top twenty-five in supporting. After Winslet, he was the only actor to really got people talking in his own right. The character is not the AMPAS sort; but he surely still belongs "on your list".

Great seeing the updates.

adam k. said...

Agreed on Jackie Earl Haley.

Also, may I reiterate that Brad Pitt and Sigourney Weaver both won SUPPORTING awards at some recent festival (forgot which). I think Pitt and Blanchett may both go supporting in Babel. As may Weaver in Snow Cake. Though if they think they can get Pitt and Bernal both noticed, then Brad will end up in lead. But so far that seems doubtful.

Is Affleck's role really big enough to be considered lead? I guess I should see Hollywoodland.

NATHANIEL R said...

the thing with Pitt is this --with true ensembles, Crash aside, they usually promote one actor to lead. Since he's the big star it makes sense that it'd be him.

but obviously either he and Affleck could both keep flipflopping throughout the season.

Anonymous said...

Yeah, at this juncture, I can't fathom a scenario where voters opt Whitaker over O'Toole. One thing bound to help O'Toole, in addition to his 8 nominations, is that they'll actually see themselves in the character-- an aging, veteran actor lusting after young women. Sounds like the Academy to me.

Beau said...

Give Weaver a nom, for Pete's Sake. The fact that that woman doesn't have an Oscar yet is almost as tragic as Kate's not owning one.

NATHANIEL R said...

looks like Weaver may be going supporting if Canadian critics are any indication.

Gerry said...

I also thought I'd add that Joan Bergin (of Jim Sheridan fame) in The Prestige's costume designer.

Anonymous said...

So you don't think Ewan McGregor in 'Miss Potter' stands a chance then huh?

Beau said...

You really think Damon will get a nom? It just looks highly unlikely to me... but then again, I haven't seen a preview of The Good Shepard yet, but the trailer to The Departed makes it looks like the film belongs to either Scorcese, DiCaprio, or Nicholson. Damon just looks there.

Honestly? I'd say Smith's gonna get that nom. The trailer just screams Oscar bait, but sometimes (on very rare occasions) the voters recognize that a film exists solely for awards consideration. That's the only reason I can see such a syrupy film like that gets made.
personally, i find that watching any trailer with such an obscene amount of unabashed sentiment sends me reeling and ranting about the sad condition of the movie industry. but that's just me.

Beau said...
This comment has been removed by a blog administrator.
adam k. said...

Ewan McGregor is not even on the radar screen.

If they didn't nominate him for Moulin Rouge!, there's no way in hell they'd nominate him for Miss Potter.

Does anyone think it's still possible that O'Toole's film Venus might get a bad enough reception that he falls out of consideration altogether? Cause unless that happens, I think we have our winner.

adam k. said...

Also, I can't think of any time a studio campaigned the big star in an ensemble film in lead and had it pay off.

Last year, for example, some people wanted Clooney to go lead for Syriana, but the studio smartly opted against that, and look what happened. I say Brad goes supporting.

Kamikaze Camel said...

It really does seem inevitable to have O'Toole win. Plus, Best Actor is much more common to have an old geezer win than Best Actress (Hi Helen Mirren and Meryl Streep!).

BEST ACTOR
I'm surprised at Will Smith's low ranking. I'd put him snug in at #6 right now, just waiting to push through. No way would someone like Ryan Gosling get in over some of the others.

BTW, you need to change the CON for Derek Luke. You got him mixed with Jude Law.

SUPPORTING ACTOR
Yeah... I dunno. It all seems right. I don't see Nicholson getting a nod, but I suppose he probably will because he's the Jack. Who else sees a Training Day situation happening with Whitaker and McAvoy. Apparently McAvoy is the true lead.

BTW, The box-office for Hollywoodland is pretty bad ($10mil in 2 weeks).

I wish Alan Arkin had been nominated several years ago for Thirteen Conversations About One Thing.

Anonymous said...

adam- re: ewan mcgregor
That's pretty much what I thought, but I wanted to see somebody else confirm it. Thanks.

Kris said...

Someone hasn't been reading In Contention. ;) The costume designer on The Prestige is Joan Bergin.

Kris said...

And Nat, Pitt is supporting. That comes from Vantage. And he would never have had a shot in lead.

Kris said...

Oh - didn't realize Gerry cleared up the costume designer jazz.

Witchiepooh said...

Nathaniel:

Any thoughts on DiCaprio's chances for either The Departed or Blood Diamond? I noticed you didn't even mention him.

And I saw Hollywoodland this past weekend. Affleck is the best thing in it, a charming turn that manages to cloak a deeper sadness. While I wasn't that impressed by the film as a whole (though better than I expected), he was a bit of a surprise. I hope they stick to Supporting because I don't see him getting a nomination in Lead.

NATHANIEL R said...

Pitt going supporting eh? I stand by him either way. I wouldn't say "never say never" --especially given how anemic Best Actor is this year. It's like 2003 again or worse.

Kris said...

We're also likely to see Richard Griffiths in supporting. His role has been shortened considerably and is the sort that would have a better shot in supporting.

Just finished interviewing JohnC ameron Mitchell, Nat. Have you seen Shortbus? AMAZING.

douglas said...

i agree shortbus was amazing!!! awesome, by far i think it is the best ive seen

NATHANIEL R said...

Shortbus --i can't wait till it's open because I'm so curious to see how people react to it. I also enjoyed it a lot.

Anonymous said...

Any thoughts with Ryan Phillippe for Best Actor for Flags of Our Father?

NATHANIEL R said...

t'would surprise me.

but of course nothing is impossible.

Anonymous said...

Ok.. just wondered since he didn't even make it into your top 25 list LOL. And just wondered why since FoOF will probably in the race for Best Picture and Director. Hence wouldn't the actor for a BP and BD movie be at least on the list for the possible nom?

Just curious why.. that's all.

adam k. said...

Is Ryan definitely the lead? I totally didn't even know that.

Anonymous said...

The only Jack we should be talking about is Jackie Earl Haley. Why? Go see Little Children.

That's Right,

HMK