tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8256060.post2744341395311366480..comments2024-03-17T10:11:46.952-04:00Comments on Film Experience Blog: Oscar Predictions Revised: Picture, Director, Animation, Documentary, SoundNATHANIEL Rhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/11597109147678235399noreply@blogger.comBlogger55125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8256060.post-4042199157995968732010-09-18T03:58:10.936-04:002010-09-18T03:58:10.936-04:00just to let you know: i got to see "legends o...just to let you know: i got to see "legends of the guardians" the other day - and the animation really is amazing. plus the (very child friendly) story is quite touching and the voice cast brilliant. if it does okay at the box office, it should have a good chance of replacing the awful "shrek forever" in your top 5. it better...Unknownhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/17418401900836874754noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8256060.post-10129247245208615882010-09-15T01:17:18.263-04:002010-09-15T01:17:18.263-04:00Oops, I got an error message the first time I post...Oops, I got an error message the first time I posted my long comment and assumed it failed to go through, which is why I broke it into two parts and posted them again. Sorry I failed to notice! How do I delete the superfluous comments?Rob T.noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8256060.post-89314083506404749172010-09-15T01:15:09.471-04:002010-09-15T01:15:09.471-04:00(Continued from last comment)
Finally, I'm pu...(Continued from last comment)<br /><br />Finally, I'm puzzled by your contention that "Oscar tilted mainstream last year." Any mainstream that includes <i>A Serious Man</i> and <i>District 9</i> must be pretty broad indeed! My idea of a mainstream-tilting set of "best picture" nominees is the 2008 bunch, consisting of four variably serious-minded "prestige pictures" plus <i>Slumdog Millionaire</i>. Had AMPAS stuck with five "best picture" nominees last year, the lineup might have been equally "mainstream"--say, <i>The Hurt Locker</i>, <i>Precious</i>, <i>Up in the Air</i>, <i>An Education</i> and <i>The Blind Side</i>. Instead we also got the two cult classics mentioned above, the first animated nominee in 19 years, and two very different originally-conceived heavyweight movies to challenge <i>The Hurt Locker</i>.<br /><br />Post-finally, remember also that though AMPAS's membership skews old, its membership does change over time too; the film-savvy "film brats" are respected elders by now. The AMPAS that gave honorary awards to Roger Corman last year and Jean-Luc Godard this year isn't likely to honor the same sorts of films that the AMPAS of 20 or 40 years ago did.<br /><br />Finally for real, I think the preference voting system AMPAS uses for nominees is likely to favor movies with intense followings (even if non-mainstream) over more traditionally "prestigious" movies like <i>Invictus</i> or <i>Nine</i> that attract respect but not much love. Or to put it another way, don't give up on <i>Black Swan</i> just yet!Rob T.noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8256060.post-46638710392968079762010-09-15T01:13:42.650-04:002010-09-15T01:13:42.650-04:00Some notes on your "best picture" predic...Some notes on your "best picture" predictions, beginning with a couple of disagreements:<br /><br />"The Weinstein's lost that Miramax mojo some time ago." (What about <i>The Reader</i>?)<br /><br />"...they prefer his [Mike Leigh's] period pieces." (The only Leigh film to be nominated for a "best picture" Oscar to date is the contemporary film <i>Secrets & Lies</i>. Leigh has been nominated for "best director" twice, once for <i>Secrets & Lies</i> and once for <i>Vera Drake</i> (a period piece); both of these films also received nominations for their screenplays, along with <i>Topsy-Turvy</i> (period) and <i>Happy-Go-Lucky</i> (contemporary). Given this split, I'd say AMPAS very slightly favors Leigh's contemporary films, at least when they deign to notice them at all.)<br /><br />I'm inclined to agree with most of your predictions for "best picture" so far except for the sports movies and maybe <i>The Way Back</i> (unless it gets a late-year Oscar qualifying release). The two boxing films that won "best picture" Oscars both broke new narrative ground (<i>Rocky</i> by setting its inspirational story in a believably gritty urban context, <i>Million Dollar Baby</i> by focusing on a female character and by not shying from a controversial resolution); a third that arguably should have won, <i>Raging Bull</i>, broke new formal ground with its dazzling slow-motion fight sequences. <i>The Fighter</i> may be a worthy film, but it's not going to be nominated for "best picture" unless it delivers a new twist on its genre. That goes for <i>Secretariat</i> as well, plus I can't imagine "best picture" being its only nomination.<br /><br />(To be continued....)Rob T.noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8256060.post-10715974436714969652010-09-15T01:11:57.163-04:002010-09-15T01:11:57.163-04:00Some notes on your "best picture" predic...Some notes on your "best picture" predictions, beginning with a couple of disagreements:<br /><br />"The Weinstein's lost that Miramax mojo some time ago." (What about <i>The Reader</i>?)<br /><br />"...they prefer his [Mike Leigh's] period pieces." (The only Leigh film to be nominated for a "best picture" Oscar to date is the contemporary film <i>Secrets & Lies</i>. Leigh has been nominated for "best director" twice, once for <i>Secrets & Lies</i> and once for <i>Vera Drake</i> (a period piece); both of these films also received nominations for their screenplays, along with <i>Topsy-Turvy</i> (period) and <i>Happy-Go-Lucky</i> (contemporary). Given this split, I'd say AMPAS very slightly favors Leigh's contemporary films, at least when they deign to notice them at all.)<br /><br />I'm inclined to agree with most of your predictions for "best picture" so far except for the sports movies and maybe <i>The Way Back</i> (unless it gets a late-year Oscar qualifying release). The two boxing films that won "best picture" Oscars both broke new narrative ground (<i>Rocky</i> by setting its inspirational story in a believably gritty urban context, <i>Million Dollar Baby</i> by focusing on a female character and by not shying from a controversial resolution); a third that arguably should have won, <i>Raging Bull</i>, broke new formal ground with its dazzling slow-motion fight sequences. <i>The Fighter</i> may be a worthy film, but it's not going to be nominated for "best picture" unless it delivers a new twist on its genre. That goes for <i>Secretariat</i> as well, plus I can't imagine "best picture" being its only nomination.<br /><br />Finally, I'm puzzled by your contention that "Oscar tilted mainstream last year." Any mainstream that includes <i>A Serious Man</i> and <i>District 9</i> must be pretty broad indeed! My idea of a mainstream-tilting set of "best picture" nominees is the 2008 bunch, consisting of four variably serious-minded "prestige pictures" plus <i>Slumdog Millionaire</i>. Had AMPAS stuck with five "best picture" nominees last year, the lineup might have been equally "mainstream"--say, <i>The Hurt Locker</i>, <i>Precious</i>, <i>Up in the Air</i>, <i>An Education</i> and <i>The Blind Side</i>. Instead we also got the two cult classics mentioned above, the first animated nominee in 19 years, and two very different originally-conceived heavyweight movies to challenge <i>The Hurt Locker</i>.<br /><br />Post-finally, remember also that though AMPAS's membership skews old, its membership does change over time too; the film-savvy "film brats" are respected elders by now. The AMPAS that gave honorary awards to Roger Corman last year and Jean-Luc Godard this year isn't likely to honor the same sorts of films that the AMPAS of 20 or 40 years ago did.<br /><br />Finally for real, I think the preference voting system AMPAS uses for nominees is likely to favor movies with intense followings (even if non-mainstream) over more traditionally "prestigious" movies like <i>Invictus</i> or <i>Nine</i> that attract respect but not much love. Or to put it another way, don't give up on <i>Black Swan</i> just yet!Rob T.noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8256060.post-11501085243763246222010-09-11T11:45:23.369-04:002010-09-11T11:45:23.369-04:00I noticed your way back predictions (and comment h...I noticed your way back predictions (and comment here in the post) and I hope you're right! This could provide some nice texture to the award season & I'm ready to see Peter's film.RChttps://www.blogger.com/profile/11340006144797496514noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8256060.post-36128005894043192842010-09-11T10:01:48.107-04:002010-09-11T10:01:48.107-04:00Andrew R -- i seriously doubt anyone thought OSCAR...Andrew R -- i seriously doubt anyone thought OSCAR BAIT when they watched The Blind Side for the first time ;)<br /><br />it's all still speculative.NATHANIEL Rhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/11597109147678235399noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8256060.post-1425556702918679522010-09-11T07:11:49.861-04:002010-09-11T07:11:49.861-04:00"Maybe as hard as it was for Swinton last yea..."Maybe as hard as it was for Swinton last year."<br /><br />Except <i>Julia</i> made, literally, $65,108, played in a maximum of only 4 cinemas in May and barely received any press whatsoever.<br /><br /><i>Animal Kingdom</i> has made over $600,000 so far, is playing in 56 cinemas around the entire country (not just NY and LA) and has been receiving press non-stop since it came out of Sundance (where it won an award).<br /><br />Yes, it will be hard to get Academy members to see the film, but the supporting category doesn't look too wide at the moment and if a couple of critics awards give her the prize then the nomination is hers for the taking.Glennhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/08194113062830373898noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8256060.post-29628194234939305272010-09-10T20:50:04.021-04:002010-09-10T20:50:04.021-04:00Hey Nat, just some info to the foreign category he...Hey Nat, just some info to the foreign category here from Denmark.<br /><br />The committee has chosen three films they will watch again and then chose one of them on September 23rd.<br /><br />The prison drama "R", Thomas Vinterberg's "Submarino" that was in competition in Berlin, and Susanne Bier's "In a Better World" which will play at Toronto IFF.Michael W.noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8256060.post-88966926972495851542010-09-10T18:37:00.969-04:002010-09-10T18:37:00.969-04:00Secretariat is NOT a Best Picture nominee. Film Mi...Secretariat is NOT a Best Picture nominee. Film Misery's head saw it and said he didn't think it was Oscar bait, even with a "Blind Side" slot.Andrew R.https://www.blogger.com/profile/08656464274438644356noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8256060.post-33046683869807793822010-09-10T16:14:30.561-04:002010-09-10T16:14:30.561-04:00I said "DVD blow out." Like what happene...I said "DVD blow out." Like what happened with Fight Club, if you need clarification. And I say disappointing box office because, well, Little Miss Sunshine, a similarly quirky disfunctional family "indiewood movie" was 4 years ago and got 3x that at the domestic BO. Unless tastes really are changing that fast and, if so, bad on our culture.Volvagianoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8256060.post-35356657820622749182010-09-10T15:12:19.209-04:002010-09-10T15:12:19.209-04:00Nathaniel - I haven't seen it but I know Weave...Nathaniel - I haven't seen it but I know Weaver and the whole film seem able to impress the Academy (or anyone) and indeed, "Julia" was not that well-recieved (I forget that because I loved it) but... will they see it?James Thttps://www.blogger.com/profile/16055933146552583102noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8256060.post-31721783954342970082010-09-10T15:04:07.813-04:002010-09-10T15:04:07.813-04:00bill & rob -- i'll have to update that. th...bill & rob -- i'll have to update that. thanks.NATHANIEL Rhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/11597109147678235399noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8256060.post-43337385498162417272010-09-10T14:56:17.225-04:002010-09-10T14:56:17.225-04:00volvagia -- also i think it's an exaggeration ...volvagia -- also i think it's an exaggeration to call the Kids are all right a "blowout" $19 million is not a bad take at all for adult-oriented drama nowadays. especially with non bankable stars.<br /><br />i mean The Hurt Locker only made $12 million ;)NATHANIEL Rhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/11597109147678235399noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8256060.post-38146688406636260622010-09-10T14:55:02.994-04:002010-09-10T14:55:02.994-04:00James T -- have you seen the movie? If they will o...James T -- have you seen the movie? If they will only watch it she has a *very* good shot at a nomination.<br /><br />Volvagia -- why on earth would THE KIDS ARE ALL RIGHT have that type of gap when the studio pushing it is very aware of how to campaign for Oscars? Watch it get a DVD release during voting on the precursors. November and December releases always have a longer gap to DVD if they're in the awards race.NATHANIEL Rhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/11597109147678235399noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8256060.post-59239793964159394832010-09-10T14:51:42.811-04:002010-09-10T14:51:42.811-04:00As Rob T. said, the John Adams music for "I A...As Rob T. said, the John Adams music for "I Am Love" is not original; it's all taken from already composed works. Adams didn't write anything specifically for the movie.<br /><br />I'm sure it's a l-o-n-g shot, but I still think Alexandre Desplat's score for "The Ghost Writer" is one of the best of the year.Bill_the_Bearnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8256060.post-4475887273901263232010-09-10T14:46:18.745-04:002010-09-10T14:46:18.745-04:00That was with 5. With 10? Quite possible. But it n...That was with 5. With 10? Quite possible. But it needs to be a hit more than any other contender (except maybe a summer slot. Sorry about The Kids Are Alright Nat, but I think DVD blow outs after dissappointing theatrical showings are 1:2000 shots. And we don't even know if that event would be able to influence The Academy at all, especially since the DVD release could be after the voting period is OVER. Take I'm Not There: Theatrical release: November. DVD release: May. Month math on The Kids Are All Right if it gets the same time gap: February.Volvagianoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8256060.post-18423223891588060632010-09-10T14:15:50.954-04:002010-09-10T14:15:50.954-04:00What made Seabiscuit a nominee (and totally rewatc...What made Seabiscuit a nominee (and totally rewatchable) is that its beautifully shot. Secretariat on the other hand...well just look at the trailer.bbatshttp://www.twitter.com/alex_bbatsnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8256060.post-44945567435240473502010-09-10T09:42:59.832-04:002010-09-10T09:42:59.832-04:00Glenn - I think it's hard for Weaver. Maybe as...Glenn - I think it's hard for Weaver. Maybe as hard as it was for Swinton last year.<br /><br />And even though predicting her might help, it would turn the predictions to "wishes" which would make things completely different.James Thttps://www.blogger.com/profile/16055933146552583102noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8256060.post-69527184673532985182010-09-10T00:37:30.275-04:002010-09-10T00:37:30.275-04:00Nat, you can forget about South Korea this year. T...Nat, you can forget about South Korea this year. They chose the movie that has absolutely no chance at all.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8256060.post-48711368538157547452010-09-10T00:04:34.862-04:002010-09-10T00:04:34.862-04:00PLEASE predict Jacki Weaver for Best Supporting Ac...PLEASE predict Jacki Weaver for Best Supporting Actress. Kris Tapley has her at #6! Maybe if people actually see her being predicted they will be forced to see the movie she's in.Glennhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/08194113062830373898noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8256060.post-90384899861166220662010-09-10T00:03:56.041-04:002010-09-10T00:03:56.041-04:00Do we really see Rabbit Hole evening opening in 20...Do we really see <i>Rabbit Hole</i> evening opening in 2010? I don't. It's looking for a distributor at TIFF if I read correctly.<br /><br />Also, as for Original Score... well, I still say to keep an eye on <i>Mao's Last Dancer</i>. It's been cited by multiple awards bodies, is exotic, the film is music-related and it's doing pretty well at the US box office for an foreign yet english language film that isn't British.Glennhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/08194113062830373898noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8256060.post-15158755502195337052010-09-09T23:35:32.888-04:002010-09-09T23:35:32.888-04:00Another possible addition to Original Song - "...Another possible addition to Original Song - "Lay My Burden Down" from Get Low. It's got the Robert Duvall hooplah on top of previous Oscars performer Allison Krauss crooning. What are it's odds Nathaniel?? I actually really like the song...Lukehttps://www.blogger.com/profile/13607763027974538119noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8256060.post-64225530090476112772010-09-09T22:45:06.908-04:002010-09-09T22:45:06.908-04:00The Way Back will get a 2010 release. Weir has adm...The Way Back will get a 2010 release. Weir has admitted just at Telluride, it'd be silly not to as much crap they have had to go through to get it made and then find distribution. All it needs is to make one theater in December and it qualifies. I'm glad ( from the reviews I have read ) that Weir stayed close to the source material ( The Long Walk )The book was riveting.<br /><br />Also The Tillman Story WILL be nominated. One of the better reviewed doc's of the year and personally my 3rd fave overall film so far. Non-sports fans might not be intrigued by the story but for those that didn't know... Pat Tillman left a multi-millionaire job as an Arizona Cardinals safety, and gave all that up to join the Army after 9-11. How many people do you know that would have done that ? And then he gets killed by his own troops, and our own government tried to cover it up. I saw it in May and it's a captivating and also frustrating movie going experience. It's very moving.<br />And on the Animated front... don't count out Legend of The Guardian: The Owls Of Ga'Hoole. Just from the trailer, that's some of the best animation I have seen, plus it has a good voice cast and a cool story.No Bad Movieshttps://www.blogger.com/profile/06953359754737036858noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8256060.post-5555949916410551562010-09-09T22:43:59.349-04:002010-09-09T22:43:59.349-04:00Interesting that you picked True Grit for score. ...Interesting that you picked True Grit for score. Isn't it kind of insane that Burwell has never been nominated?John O'Neilhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/17099159131271879099noreply@blogger.com