tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8256060.post3478179458057039184..comments2024-03-17T10:11:46.952-04:00Comments on Film Experience Blog: Hollywood's Only Oscar StrategyNATHANIEL Rhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/11597109147678235399noreply@blogger.comBlogger34125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8256060.post-42161061638370783202009-01-02T20:34:00.000-05:002009-01-02T20:34:00.000-05:00Nice work. Did I just notice a reference to this ...Nice work. Did I just notice a reference to this post in <I>The New York Times</I>? If I did, congratulations!The Film Doctor https://www.blogger.com/profile/03073505923746994988noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8256060.post-72424641081743445662009-01-01T00:26:00.000-05:002009-01-01T00:26:00.000-05:00I've thought that if Atonement had come out even a...I've thought that if <I>Atonement</I> had come out even a week earlier it would have missed Best Picture. It seemed to barely scrape in there and if it had been out in November then it's small amount of Best Picture buzz would have evaporated earlier.Glennhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/08194113062830373898noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8256060.post-78016016296530725322008-12-31T15:31:00.000-05:002008-12-31T15:31:00.000-05:00This comment has been removed by the author.atranehttps://www.blogger.com/profile/12168977356806560485noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8256060.post-25202154958320838212008-12-31T13:30:00.000-05:002008-12-31T13:30:00.000-05:00thanks for all the work you put into the charts.i'...thanks for all the work you put into the charts.<BR/><BR/>i've wondered exactly how those figures pan out...i appreciate your work here.<BR/><BR/>I'm so done with this strategy though...<BR/><BR/>please at least start releasing the goods in august/september.RChttps://www.blogger.com/profile/11340006144797496514noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8256060.post-45609738358507870992008-12-31T12:59:00.000-05:002008-12-31T12:59:00.000-05:00I think Nathaniel is aiming for much more (read: l...I think Nathaniel is aiming for much more (read: loftier) than appeasing and interesting us, with this rather focused, relatively thorough, even academic piece on the Year in Review. It's not even marking one's territory. It's heading for as professional-as-it-gets within a world mushrooming with professional amateurs. Good going!Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8256060.post-83886669072896313352008-12-31T10:36:00.000-05:002008-12-31T10:36:00.000-05:00I just read that one of the Fox honchos is blaming...I just read that one of the Fox honchos is blaming "the competition" as the reason that Australia is not doing well at the box office. So how does that explain the fact that BB, which has more prestige pics to compete with, has done better at the box office? I'm amused by how far the studios (and everyone involved) will go to put the blame elsewhere, after they plotted and planned the release date to the nth degree. <BR/><BR/>Regarding the December glut - I totally agree with you, Nat. It would have been interesting to see those graphs extended a couple of decades earlier, although the studio system then was quite different from what we have now. I think it has a lot to do with the shrinking ratings for the Oscars, as well as a lot of the contempt that "ordinary Joes and Janes" (the ones some might call "red staters" but in fact it's not that easily divisible) have for Hollywood, for prestige pics, etc etc - the sense of being left out. Who cares about Oscars if you can't see any of the films being nominated because the studios didn't think you, the great unwashed, were worthy of seeing it, only the folks in NY and LA? And, doesn't that also mean that these films are not really competing in an honest way (unlike Rachel, or VCB, or The Visitor, or Happy Go Lucky or any films/perfs that had to get out there and actually earn their buzz and their audiences?) <BR/><BR/>I still wonder about the situation with Atonement - last year you were saying that a late release actually hurt its chances, no?Janicehttps://www.blogger.com/profile/08049113750769117163noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8256060.post-88928786703067952622008-12-31T10:27:00.000-05:002008-12-31T10:27:00.000-05:00I think you mentioned a big factor (that hasn't go...I think you mentioned a big factor (that hasn't gotten enough discussion). I'm talking about the marketing angle. Studios don't know how to market most of these films outside the parameters of awards contenders, so they're happy to let award nominations take the place of actual marketing. <BR/><BR/>If they release their movie in September or October, then they'd have to come up with actual marketing strategies and spend $$.<BR/><BR/>Of course, this works against Oscar in the long run. No marketing means that fewer people have even heard of these movies which means lower ratings for the Oscar-cast.Roberthttps://www.blogger.com/profile/13178975866741187681noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8256060.post-29368200621791093292008-12-31T09:10:00.000-05:002008-12-31T09:10:00.000-05:00the know nothing...yeah the two movies i think we&...the know nothing...<BR/><BR/>yeah the two movies i think we're really foolish to wait for december this year you hit on the nose: THE WRESTLER (needed a lot of discussion to be received on a larger scale as something more than a low budget performance drama) and WENDY & LUCY (which was too small for christmas. It should've just followed its festival buzz into release) <BR/><BR/>not to mention about 10 other miniscule movies that had no hope of getting anyone talking amidst the huge star epics and the holidays. <BR/><BR/>but December is wise for some movies. it helps BENJAMIN BUTTON be a frontunner and also FROST/NIXON and DOUBT were probably smart about waiting this long. They're both "fun" in a way and they have big themes/bait elements but they're hardly masterpieces. This way everyone can still vote for them when they're fresh and before they have a lot of time to consider whether this truly is "best filmmaking"<BR/><BR/>maybe i'm naive about the whole thing but i tend to think the movies that are great don't need December to get nominated and the movies that only <I>seem</I> great at first glance really do need December.<BR/><BR/>or am i projecting my own anti-december feelings onto it? ;)NATHANIEL Rhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/11597109147678235399noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8256060.post-18508928250605712742008-12-31T08:47:00.000-05:002008-12-31T08:47:00.000-05:00Love the artwork Nathaniel, I've been waiting for ...Love the artwork Nathaniel, I've been waiting for someone to do something about these 3 women in particular, and as always you do so in an inspired fashion. Bravo! Very funny!Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8256060.post-20152131832320716452008-12-31T08:36:00.000-05:002008-12-31T08:36:00.000-05:00On the other hand, the late release date seems to ...On the other hand, the late release date seems to have backfired last year for "Atonement" - or did it fail to impress AMPAS for other reasons? (The voters seemed to have been in a very dark mood last year.)Janicehttps://www.blogger.com/profile/08049113750769117163noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8256060.post-78454379686147362482008-12-31T07:30:00.000-05:002008-12-31T07:30:00.000-05:00It's frustrating to see even smaller films trying ...It's frustrating to see even smaller films trying this strategy though. Look at a great movie like "The Wrestler." If that had been released around late summer/early fall, it might be where "Slumdog Millionaire" is right now. It's just now getting a steady rollout, which is ridiculous. Same thing with "Children of Men" two years earlier.The Pretentious Know it Allhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/13279181033628364368noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8256060.post-72209575915889153682008-12-31T07:21:00.000-05:002008-12-31T07:21:00.000-05:00The only thing the Academy will do to "correct" th...The only thing the Academy will do to "correct" this problem is what they've already done periphreally to solve another problem -- up the telecast of the Oscars to try to prevent rampant marketing from super-aggressive, statue/money-hungry studios. That would in turn force studios to alter their release strategies (re: set opening dates somewhat earlier in the calendar like October or November -- can't go too crazy with that out-of-sight, out-of-mind no man's land of February to April) to accommodate the new airdate. It seemed to have worked for awhile with strong contenders coming out in early fall or earlier("Mystic River," "Ray," "Little Miss Sunshine," "Crash," "Capote," "The Queen," etc.) and being recognized for getting that early traction. But that all seemed to change again this year. They'd never do something like a half-year semifinals round. It would be too much work on these lazy voters, and someone down the line would surely bitch about these early-year films having an improper advantage over the year-ends if they toppled the other (the irony). <BR/><BR/>Really I think the writers strike just about screwed up everything -- not only new development for the upcoming television season, but also for completed and upcoming films down the pike (and the 2008 holdovers still awaiting a 2009 release). The country's in a recession, ticket prices are up, sales are down, and speciality film divisions are going belly-up left and right. It's not too hard to figure out why these films are getting the December treatment. Reluctant studios don't have proper faith in these films or their audiences' intelligence, nor do they know of a better way to sell these tough-to-market films other than through the prestige Oscar factor hook. That's how they put these films in a tidy marketing package and hope that the adult audiences respond accordingly, which then drive box office receipts, DVD sales, more Oscar talk, and buoy international sales. They don't know how to do anything else nowadays beyond marketing to 15-year-old white boys. Sad, but that's the reality of things.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8256060.post-38689040540721820702008-12-30T23:17:00.000-05:002008-12-30T23:17:00.000-05:00That "December" poster is the funniest thing I've ...That "December" poster is the funniest thing I've seen on this site all year. "One of the best months of the year!" OMG that was too funny! Bravo, sir!Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8256060.post-42175414906422405582008-12-30T22:43:00.000-05:002008-12-30T22:43:00.000-05:00I agree that Cate did the most impressive actual a...I agree that Cate did the most impressive actual <EM>acting</EM> in <EM>Benjamin Button</EM>. She had the biggest arc (easily), what with... well, that'd be a spoiler. But between the dancing (if that was really her... you never know with a movie so enamored of digital replacement), the aging, the emotional changes, the romance... it was quite an impressive perf. And I'm not even a huge Blanchett fan.<BR/><BR/>I also disagree with the notion that she could've/should've gone supporting. I suppose she might've gotten away with it if she'd tried, but with Henson to compete with, it only would've confused. This is a romance through and through, and she's the female lead. The second half of the film is pretty much hers (whereas the first half belongs to Pitt). And she also anchors the whole thing through the deathbed framing. She's 1/2 the film. She is a lead.adam k.https://www.blogger.com/profile/13485604493059621307noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8256060.post-41474910523176339052008-12-30T21:48:00.000-05:002008-12-30T21:48:00.000-05:00Interesting data. I wonder if the pretty much com...Interesting data. I wonder if the pretty much complete corporatisation of film has something to do with it. I'd guess that many of these films are only greenlit/distributed as potential awards contenders. They're not expected to turn a profit or break even without the aid of awards nominations so holding off until December might be the only chance for a production company/ distributor to be rewarded for their efforts -- if not financially, then at least with some critical prestige.Alex F.https://www.blogger.com/profile/04936856281000888335noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8256060.post-73880216782043291502008-12-30T21:41:00.000-05:002008-12-30T21:41:00.000-05:00In regards to the "more movies being made" I think...In regards to the "more movies being made" I think Tim is right, but the thing is there are far more things these days to take away from going to the movies. People can watch movies on DVD, download them illegally, watch DVD, go on the internet or do any number of social things. Going to the movies isn't what it once was many people (evidenced by that strange "stat" that on average people only go to the movies two or three times a year). And these days there is an dwindling supply of people willing to see upwards of 50 movies a year, yet because of things like the internet there are more and more movies coming to our attention and just not enough time and money to see them all so it becomes physically impossible to see something like 30 films in December when you have not only big Oscar hopefuls but small arthouse films (<I>Wendy & Lucy</I>, <I>Hunger</I>, etc).Glenn Dunkshttps://www.blogger.com/profile/05424659636310160482noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8256060.post-79313177574377186182008-12-30T21:35:00.000-05:002008-12-30T21:35:00.000-05:00Couldn't you have made that lovely rendering of th...Couldn't you have made that lovely rendering of the world's 3 best actresses BEFORE I made my Posters of the Year list?Kurtis Ohttps://www.blogger.com/profile/07946031309738374597noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8256060.post-88041719704905816472008-12-30T21:30:00.000-05:002008-12-30T21:30:00.000-05:00Insightful as always. There's not much more frust...Insightful as always. There's not much more frustrating than having to suffer through ten and a half months of what Hollywood thinks 14-year-old boys want to see, just to spend all of the holidays in front of a movie screen, and I like to imagine that I'm not the only person who's a little bit gleeful that the December strategy seems to have backfired, at least somewhat, this year. Also, great work getting all those stats together. It's kind of scary, isn't it?<BR/><BR/>(And no, <I>Doubt</I> would absolutely not be an Oscar hopeful if it had come out in, say, September).<BR/><BR/>Just one big caveat, though: you theorize that there are more movies getting released than there used to be, which I'm virtually certain is incorrect. Back in the '30s and '40s and into the '50s, recall, movies weren't an artistic vocation, they were a <I>job</I>, and the studios cranked them out like an assembly line. There's a reason John Ford made almost 150 movies, and it's not because he was a workaholic.Timhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/09491952893581644049noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8256060.post-53337310329580244232008-12-30T21:16:00.000-05:002008-12-30T21:16:00.000-05:00Eastwood's Mandela seems like an almost certain fi...Eastwood's Mandela seems like an almost certain film that Oscar will be fawning over. Freeman, at the very least, seems likely to hit a nomination.John Thttps://www.blogger.com/profile/12778817752411507792noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8256060.post-63950622946033444472008-12-30T21:11:00.000-05:002008-12-30T21:11:00.000-05:00Indeed. It was only a few years ago that a movie r...Indeed. It was only a few years ago that a movie released in May (that'd be <I>Crash</I>) won Best Picture. And lest we forget <I>Silence of the Lambs</I> was released in February. The problem is that the studios - probably quite rightly - don't have faith in the Academy or critics for that matter to still be in love with great movies later in the year. Melissa Leo has so far been an early year hit contender and <I>The Dark Knight</I> and <I>WallE</I> certainly are too but where did <I>The Visitor</I> go? But, then, I do wonder too if <I>Frost/Nixon</I> had been given an early summer release for instance whether it could have made an easy $50mil on the back of being good with an adult friendly director and ended up being a solid Best Picture contender instead of a "well, maybe for the final spot?" type of nominee.<BR/><BR/>Besides, I don't know about others, but if I saw a movie earlier in the year and by January can still claim to be as in love with it as I was at the time then I would most certainly put that down over something that I liked in December, but am not entirely certain about.Glenn Dunkshttps://www.blogger.com/profile/05424659636310160482noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8256060.post-50473674621656786982008-12-30T21:07:00.000-05:002008-12-30T21:07:00.000-05:00To carry forward Brian's thought about DVDs: Might...To carry forward Brian's thought about DVDs: Might a well-timed DVD release actually help a midyear film's buzz, thereby improving its chance at a nomination? Maybe I'm all wrong here, but I was under the impression that the mid-December DVD release of <I>Little Miss Sunshine</I> got people talking about it all over again, and people who had missed it in theatres in the late summer had a second chance to see it and start lobbying for it as an Oscar prospect.<BR/><BR/>This is why I find the last week's reappearance of <I>VCB</I> in the local first-run multiplex baffling (it first played here in August). Wouldn't the film be better served by a DVD release now?Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8256060.post-41145975582598382002008-12-30T18:42:00.000-05:002008-12-30T18:42:00.000-05:00I agree so much with this...This year's best movie...I agree so much with this...<BR/><BR/>This year's best movies opened ALL before december...<BR/><BR/>Slumdog<BR/>Wall-E<BR/>Rachel Getting Married<BR/>The Dark Knight<BR/>Milk<BR/>Burn After Reading<BR/>Happy-Go-Lucky<BR/>Vicky Cristina Barcelona<BR/>Australia<BR/><BR/>Only The Wrestler and Wendy and Lucy opened in December...Jorge Rodrigueshttps://www.blogger.com/profile/14773926428295140628noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8256060.post-17081789764802484962008-12-30T18:38:00.000-05:002008-12-30T18:38:00.000-05:00Oh yeah...didn't you love how distinctly Hepburnes...Oh yeah...didn't you love how distinctly Hepburnesque (circa Guess Who's Coming to Dinner) Blanchett looked in that one draped smock in her 60's?Haydenhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/13622435513032131426noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8256060.post-90933285466455974772008-12-30T18:37:00.000-05:002008-12-30T18:37:00.000-05:00I wouldn't be too phased by her SAG snub. They're ...I wouldn't be too phased by her SAG snub. They're a much less exclusive body when it comes to nominating unknowns who are arguably more deserving than members of the AMPAS club, and in such a crowded year it's hard to make excuses for specifically WHY an actress didn't make it in. <BR/><BR/>What makes it interesting is that in Best Actress different actresses in the top 7 or 8 are getting nommed and ignored in different places, so it's tough to predict who's safe and who isn't. I just think that Blanchett gave the kind of performance that older Academy members love, in a film they may just go nuts for. <BR/><BR/>I just can't see them nominating Brad Pitt for that lazy, easy performance (or Henson merely for being adorable--see my blog) and not Blanchett, who did the film's heaviest lifting. And who they love, love, love.Haydenhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/13622435513032131426noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8256060.post-38709981010000063642008-12-30T18:07:00.000-05:002008-12-30T18:07:00.000-05:00For as much as i was very meh over BB, Cate Blanch...For as much as i was very meh over BB, Cate Blanchett was the best part of the movie. Her understated emoting really hit the elegaic theme of the better parts of the movie. I only had a problem with her on her deathbed, where her voice sounded too different from her younger one. <BR/><BR/>I was thinking about where i HAD heard that voice, and then it struck me: old Kate Hepburn, and wouldn't that be kind of ironic if they nom'd her again here.<BR/><BR/>The only surprise to me is that a confirmed category fraudster is going for lead in a borderline-sized performance.Unknownhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/02190784812790989314noreply@blogger.com