tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8256060.post3804892724658853256..comments2024-03-17T10:11:46.952-04:00Comments on Film Experience Blog: Today's Oscar Puzzle: Supporting Actress 2008NATHANIEL Rhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/11597109147678235399noreply@blogger.comBlogger37125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8256060.post-60451564525767694722008-12-02T07:31:00.000-05:002008-12-02T07:31:00.000-05:00I rambled on endlessly in response to Nathaniel's ...I rambled on endlessly in response to Nathaniel's post <A HREF="http://www.stinkylulu.com/2008/12/to-dos-day-stinkylulu-weighs-in-on-2008.html" REL="nofollow">here</A>. The highlights: Cruz is still the frontrunner for the nom and the win; things are about as locked as usual; Freida Pinto and Sophie Okenedo; Hiam Abbass, Elsa Zilberstein and Debra Winger to be most helped by the precursors; I think DeWitt's chances for a nomination are about 50/50; and don't forget about the <A HREF="http://www.stinkylulu.com/2008/11/introducing-class-of-2008-3nd-annual.html" REL="nofollow">3rd Annual Supporting Actress Blogathon</A>!StinkyLuluhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/11765533714740641857noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8256060.post-61492740389264416342008-12-02T03:24:00.000-05:002008-12-02T03:24:00.000-05:00I put Abbas as my prediction way back when the Act...I put Abbas as my prediction way back when the Actress Psychic Contest started, so I sure as heck won't change my mind now (except for changing Lead to Supporting, natch).<BR/><BR/>I also think that Huston (and/or MacDonald (and/or Rockwell, though in a different category :P)) will get more precursor love than everyone thinks for <I>Choke</I>. And although the film's poor reviews should stop any of them from getting nominated for the biggies... remember <I>The Golden Age</I>?Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8256060.post-27599966466282969972008-12-02T01:00:00.000-05:002008-12-02T01:00:00.000-05:00Anon @ 8.44 - Have you read the entry? Almost nobo...Anon @ 8.44 - Have you read the entry? Almost nobody is predicting Cruz will win.<BR/><BR/>At the moment I'm thinking... she will. I dunno.<BR/><BR/>Who will be this year's Amy Ryan? Hiam Abbas. That's my prediction and I'd love for it to come true and for her to land an Oscar nomination. Although I'd also be happy if Elsa Zylberstein became the critics favourite. Or Davis, too, but she's already right in the thick of things.Glennhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/08194113062830373898noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8256060.post-65860379350692380832008-12-02T00:27:00.000-05:002008-12-02T00:27:00.000-05:00Oh, and I think Cruz will win the globe fairly eas...Oh, and I think Cruz will win the globe fairly easily (maybe that can be the Javier moment?), but will lose the SAG, meaning oscar night will be tense.adam k.https://www.blogger.com/profile/13485604493059621307noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8256060.post-16598509146445824862008-12-02T00:25:00.000-05:002008-12-02T00:25:00.000-05:00I think supporting actress will be hard to predict...I think supporting actress will be hard to predict right up until the ceremony, with Cruz, Davis and Winslet all having precursors/things in their favor. And since there are three of them splitting votes, the final winner could even end up being a 4th (like last year). <BR/><BR/>I think Cruz will take NBR and/or LA to get her off to a strong start, David will take NYCC, maybe DeWitt will take NSFC, and the rest will be all scattershot between everyone.<BR/><BR/>It could end up a lot like 2002, when you had Moore with two nominations and lots of heat from that, CZJ as the fiery Hollywood entry (Cruz) and Streep, who almost won simply on merit (kinda like Davis). <BR/><BR/>I'm still thinking Cruz will pull it out - she deserves it, both for VCB and for <EM>Volver</EM> - but a lot really depends on what happens with Winslet.<BR/><BR/>I think the list will be Cruz/Davis/DeWitt/Henson/Winslet.adam k.https://www.blogger.com/profile/13485604493059621307noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8256060.post-18822645831066559002008-12-01T23:44:00.000-05:002008-12-01T23:44:00.000-05:001) A probable nomination, no win. The win will be ...1) A probable nomination, no win. The win will be Winslet's or Davis's. Though I can see a Swinton here with Rosemarie DeWitt winning.<BR/><BR/>2) No Henson I predict. Tomei instead of Henson.<BR/><BR/>3) Hiam Abass sounds really Shoreh Aghdashloo, doesn't she?<BR/><BR/>4) Kate Winslet will be hurt by critics, since many will award her as Lead (either in The Reader or for body of work). I can see DeWitt benefitting from critics, as well as Tomei.<BR/><BR/>5) It's becoming more possible every day and would be something definite if Best Actress was not so empty. Changeling may have suffered too much for Angie to get nominated.<BR/><BR/>6) How awesome would it be to have Julie Delpy as a nun in a period film who secretly reads "forbidden" books and writes poetry?Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8256060.post-34909421105888756432008-12-01T20:44:00.000-05:002008-12-01T20:44:00.000-05:00I'm sorry, but I don't know why everyone is predic...I'm sorry, but I don't know why everyone is predicting Cruz for the win. I saw the movie and I thought she was kind of overrated. She will be nominated, but a win hell no.<BR/><BR/>It's Winslet vs. Davis.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8256060.post-38769873390145459812008-12-01T20:43:00.000-05:002008-12-01T20:43:00.000-05:001. Nomination, likely (though I'd still rank DeWi...1. Nomination, likely (though I'd still rank DeWitt has higher, honestly), win doubtful.<BR/><BR/>2. Groupthink solidifying this early is more likely right then wrong, I'd wager. I'd point to 2006's best actress category as an example. Nathaniel, it's worth pointing out that you yourself had four of the five nominees in the supporting actress category in November in 2006, and only because you stubbornly excluded Blanchett (it changed by December, but I don't know when).<BR/><BR/> The big thing is that a lot of the contenders haven't come out yet. From that ones we've seen, we feel comfortable about Cruz and DeWitt. I think confusion about category fraud could rule out Winslet. If Revolutionary Road has coattails, Bates may be the surprise contender.<BR/><BR/>3. Stealth attack? Right now, I'm thinking Vera Farmiga. Why? Well, screeners are out to voters already, she's had a noteworthy run these past few years. Everyone who's worked with her seems to respect her. She's playing a "real" person.<BR/><BR/>4. A scattershot race benefits... the ones who've been out the longest (time enough to gather partisans - example: Castle-Hughes over Kidman in 2003) and those who get early traction with critics awards (example, Gay-Harden in 2000 over Ziyi and Zeta-Jones).<BR/><BR/>5. I doubt it. 1995 was one of the strongest years for leading ladies EVER. You can make four different line-ups that would demolish 1994's. This year is not so strong.<BR/><BR/>6. Maggie Gyllenhaal. Viktoria Winge.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8256060.post-11032904442780040952008-12-01T19:16:00.000-05:002008-12-01T19:16:00.000-05:00Allison Pill as stealth nominee?Allison Pill as stealth nominee?Billy Dhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/15773336429810369206noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8256060.post-8365126961917456482008-12-01T17:58:00.000-05:002008-12-01T17:58:00.000-05:00I would be disappointed if Adams is nominated for ...I would be disappointed if Adams is nominated for Doubt. It's not that great a role unless they've made it more interesting than in the play.<BR/><BR/>The supporting actress category right now is one of the hardest to predict at the moment, though it does look like Cruz is close to a lock.gabrieloakhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/00460263240309976652noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8256060.post-40382432014212932082008-12-01T16:06:00.000-05:002008-12-01T16:06:00.000-05:001) She's got the nomination, but I personally thin...1) She's got the nomination, but I personally think she will fail to win. Someone else in a more "serious/dramatic" role will take it.<BR/><BR/>2) It's true that nobody knows anything, but these nominees seem pretty possible right now. <BR/><BR/>3) Elsa Zylberstein in I've Loved You So Long? <BR/><BR/>4) Over the place, defenetly. That will help girls from 'Rachel Getting Married' and Marisa Tomei.<BR/><BR/>5) I think borth get nominated. But, yes, DeWitt has stronger chances than Hathway right now.<BR/><BR/>6) Kate Winslet. If it finally gets her the Oscar.Cohttps://www.blogger.com/profile/00513460213305003463noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8256060.post-84689232790298918522008-12-01T15:33:00.000-05:002008-12-01T15:33:00.000-05:001): Cruz is definitely a nominee but I don't think...1): Cruz is definitely a nominee but I don't think she'll get the win (unfortunately). I think Viola Davis or DeWitt (if they like RGM enough) will take the prize.<BR/><BR/>2): That's definitely been the consensus but things could change right? If buzz about the Reader continues to grow, Winslet might not be able to pull of the category fraud. Also, with Blanchett getting a lot of buzz for BB, maybe the Academy won't reward Henson. I would watch out for Bates or Winger off of the academy's love them and Abbass or Zylberstein if they really love the corresponding lead performances (Jenkins and Scott-Thomas).<BR/><BR/>3): Umm, other than Abbass and Zylberstein I think Beyonce Knowles or Emma Thompson could get a globe "star-f**kers" bump and possibly make it in. Crazier things have happened right? Both have baity roles...<BR/><BR/>4): I agree that the critics will go all over. I think it means good things for Cruz, who the academy already knows and DeWitt, who has an easily identifiable role in her film.<BR/><BR/>5): I think it is a possibility that DeWitt could make the cut while Hathaway misses. With Blanchett's buzz the Actress race is suddenly at 7 competitors for 5 slots (Hathaway, Blanchett, Winslet, Streep, Hawkins, Jolie, Scott-Thomas). Yet, I think both will make it.<BR/><BR/>6): Samantha Morton would be great as would Helen Mirren. As for younger actresses, I think Claire Danes or Emmy Rossum might make a good nun. Ha, I'd pay to see Scarlett Johansson in a nun outfit just for the novelty.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8256060.post-69820959259359574222008-12-01T15:07:00.000-05:002008-12-01T15:07:00.000-05:00emma thompson may be the only satellite nominee th...emma thompson may be the only satellite nominee that has a chance of winning some precursors and maybe reentering the race. i didnt see this but it was a well reviewed performance when it came outAnonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8256060.post-9899918862723322008-12-01T15:03:00.000-05:002008-12-01T15:03:00.000-05:001) Nomination, sure, but win, I'm not 100% convenc...1) Nomination, sure, but win, I'm not 100% convenced of the win. Especially for Winslet effect<BR/><BR/>2) Cruz/Davis/DeWitt/Henson/Winslet is a great lineup. I think marisa will be snubbed<BR/><BR/>3) The Satellite Nominations gives us an interesting idea:<BR/>*Sophie Okonedo: strange!.<BR/>*Beyonce Knowles: I'm scarred, but yes, she's received fine reviews, and plus: biopic with physical transformation...<BR/>*Hiam Abbass: Maybe Richard jenkins is in the line, but the israeli actress could get Shohreh Aghdashloo's effect...<BR/>*elsa zylberstein: I don't know about her, maybe she's out...<BR/>*Vera Farmiga: If the film is fantastic like Toronto, she's IN.<BR/><BR/>4) Winslet, Davis and Cruz<BR/><BR/>5) If Hathaway is out, DeWitt is out. If Hathaway is in, MAYBE DeWitt is in.<BR/><BR/>6) Kate Winslet! I remember her in Extras!Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8256060.post-84070535155910883472008-12-01T14:47:00.000-05:002008-12-01T14:47:00.000-05:00Yay, round 2!1. I hadn't thought about that. The ...Yay, round 2!<BR/><BR/>1. I hadn't thought about that. The costar of your film, current boyfriend, and last year's champ in supporting actor rewards his girlfriend with an Oscar. That could be a spectacular "Oscar" moment. I think that after "Volver", the Academy has a newfound respect for Penelope Cruz, and they're wanting to diversify their nominees and winners, so why not her? It could definitely happen.<BR/><BR/>2. I have Adams/Cruz/Davis/Winger/Winslet in my predictions. Henson is right there at my number 6. This bleeds into #3, but I don't see too many nominees on the horizon to overtake the anointed frontrunners.<BR/><BR/>3. People have seemed to discount Amy Adams, but she's a hot commodity and far better known than her co-star, Viola Davis. But here's someone to watch out for. ALISON PILL! Seriously, she held her own against Patricia Clarkson in "Pieces of April", is a Tony nominee for "The Lieutenant of Inishmore", and is the de-facto lady in a sea of dudes in "Milk", so instant notice. I'd say to watch out for her.<BR/><BR/>4. I think that supporting actor will all be in lockstep for Heath Ledger, but in supporting actress, it will likely be more of an "anything goes" approach.<BR/><BR/>5. I think that Anne Hathaway has already cemented her nod in the final five, so no, I don't see a "Georgia" situation happening with Rosemarie DeWitt in supporting actress over Anne Hathaway in lead. I think the only way DeWitt gets in is if Anne Hathaway is also nodded. OR more likely DeWitt is snubbed for Winger. OR Hathaway alone.<BR/><BR/>6. I think Amy Adams is getting nominated! Did you all hear that Natalie Portman was this close to landing the role instead of Adams, but refused it b/c she couldn't picture herself playing a chaste character? I think that Scarlett Johansson could have pulled off this role. Maggie Gyllenhaal too.<BR/><BR/>Fun game!Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8256060.post-56642661243536344332008-12-01T14:37:00.001-05:002008-12-01T14:37:00.001-05:00This comment has been removed by the author.Kurtis Ohttps://www.blogger.com/profile/07946031309738374597noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8256060.post-11738414959770640442008-12-01T14:37:00.000-05:002008-12-01T14:37:00.000-05:001. Wow, I hadn't even thought about the Bardem-as-...1. Wow, I hadn't even thought about the Bardem-as-presenter aspect. That would be quite a sight. I'm sure she'll land the nom but I've little faith in the win. I would've liked to see Rebecca Hall get a little more attention as Vicky. She lacked Penelope's fire, but I'm set to do a 'snubbed by Oscar' piece in Feb. and she's likely to make my list.<BR/><BR/>2. Very warm, I hope. I like the lineup. But I wouldn't count out Adams. While I surely don't swear by Karger, he seems to think "Doubt" is gonna clean up and a whole year's gone by since two actors from the same film ended up in the same category...or is that reserved for the right-hand men in "Milk?" Personally, I'd love to see Tomei sneak in there.<BR/><BR/>3. Winger. Yes, she looks regal. Yes, she exudes mystery. Yes, she gets to slap the little princess. But would this tiny role be getting so much buzz if it weren't such a tease of a comeback? ...Or, is that the whole point? Next question.<BR/><BR/>4. For God's sake, please spread them all over the place! Last year, I was all but ready to gut-punch anyone named Amy or Ryan because I was so sick of hearing or reading the combo of the two.<BR/><BR/>5. That'd be a shame -- I'm really rooting for Annie. On the other side of the coin, I don't want to see her get recognized if DeWitt doesn't. Both women blew me away, and if I weren't so achingly anticipating a Winslet victory somewhere, I'd be fine with both of them winning.<BR/><BR/>6. Zellwegger -- let's see just how much puffier her face can get when squeezed into a tight habit. Saw VI will need some competition in the horror arena, right?Kurtis Ohttps://www.blogger.com/profile/07946031309738374597noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8256060.post-76225555436027334502008-12-01T14:33:00.000-05:002008-12-01T14:33:00.000-05:00iggy... in 1993 we had two double nomineesEMMA THO...iggy... in 1993 we had two double nominees<BR/><BR/>EMMA THOMPSON -remains of the day (lead -lost) in the name of the father (supporting -lost)<BR/><BR/>and<BR/><BR/>HOLLY HUNTER -the piano (lead-winner) the firm (supporting -lost)NATHANIEL Rhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/11597109147678235399noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8256060.post-66137541959018936462008-12-01T14:19:00.000-05:002008-12-01T14:19:00.000-05:00Taraji and Kathy Bates are the two I think could e...Taraji and Kathy Bates are the two I think could easily get in the mix depending on how the films are widely received. BB may not be an acting showcase, but if its get rolling noms could be all over the place. Plus, the age transformation, if done well, is sure to impress. I think your top 3 are pretty much locks, but the other two could go to anyone. I love THE WRESTLER, but don't see a Tomei nom in the works unless the film really picks up once it is released and gets more noms than people are expecting now.James Hansenhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/09650436008918093617noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8256060.post-81951114787362609942008-12-01T14:17:00.000-05:002008-12-01T14:17:00.000-05:001) Cruz will definitely be nominated, and I'm expe...1) Cruz will definitely be nominated, and I'm expecting her to win as well.<BR/><BR/>2) I'm not completely sold on Henson, Winslet, or DeWitt yet. I think Winger is still a viable candidate and will probably receive a SAG nomination or perhaps one of the "Big 4" critics awards. <BR/><BR/>3) I would say Winger, but I don't think she's under the radar. Beyonce has been receiving some buzz lately, and, while I don't see her being nominated, she'll definitely receive a Golden Globe nomination.<BR/><BR/>4) I think it could be all over the place, but I'm expecting Cruz to take 2-3 of the "Big 4." Winger, DeWitt, and Davis seem most likely win some awards after Cruz.<BR/><BR/>5) Very possible. I can't help but feeling that Hathaway's buzz is slightly fading. Maybe that's just me overanalyzing the day-to-day shifts in the race, but it appears that I'm not alone.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8256060.post-2324794907622094242008-12-01T14:14:00.000-05:002008-12-01T14:14:00.000-05:001.- I just hope that if she wins, Javier won't be ...1.- I just hope that if she wins, Javier won't be the reason. However, if Winslet finally goes supporting for The Reader, I think she has no chance of winning. Would it be so unlikely to have two actresses double nominated, i.e. Winslet for RR and the Reader and Cruz for Elegy and VCB? Has that ever happened?<BR/><BR/>To abstew: Javier spent most of his time at San Sebastian Film Festival (last September?) refuting his supposedly previous statements on many issues. One of them was the "one year to rest". He said it was false, and that he always takes his time in between movies, and that this time took him longer than usual. I know, I don't buy it either. Maybe he should choose a different publicist. ;)<BR/><BR/>IggyAnonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8256060.post-20989831044550251762008-12-01T13:57:00.000-05:002008-12-01T13:57:00.000-05:00I haven't seen a whole lot of the performances unf...I haven't seen a whole lot of the performances unfortunately, but I'd be perfectly happy if they gave all 5 noms to the female cast of Synecdoche NY. Any of the 5 - they were all tremendous.<BR/><BR/>I initially thought that the "who should play a nun?" question was a serious one, so I was thinking that author Miriam Toews (who was great with very little dialogue in "Silent Light") would have a great face for a nun. But given the other answers, I'll go with Portia De Rossi and, to add some spice, Asia Argento...That would be a helluva nunnery.Bob Turnbullhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/02243657105760780425noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8256060.post-23439295835526468142008-12-01T13:38:00.000-05:002008-12-01T13:38:00.000-05:001) definite nom. if she wraps up a bunch of critic...1) definite nom. if she wraps up a bunch of critics awards, it's hers.<BR/><BR/>2) seems about right, but as more and more positive Benjamin Button reviews pour in, a likely sweep could put Taraji Henson back in the running.<BR/><BR/>3) see above - i'm rooting for her just for the scene in the trailer where she sees her 'baby' come home.<BR/><BR/>4) I feel like Davis and DeWitt will most likely reap the critics awards. if it's all over the place, DeWitt benefits for the size of her role, Davis suffers for the size of her role.<BR/><BR/>5) Still counting on Hathaway to get a nomination - she's still my performance of the year. hope springs eternal.<BR/><BR/>6) monica bellucci. in fact, some italian movie must surely have gone there already. Liv Tyler? Pouty lips + bambi eyes + nun's habit = wait, are we talking oscar fantasy or just plain fantasy?Danielhardy23@gmail.comhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/17755560281480938452noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8256060.post-11499718422851091152008-12-01T13:30:00.000-05:002008-12-01T13:30:00.000-05:00penelope will be nominated for VICKY CRISTINA BARC...penelope will be nominated for VICKY CRISTINA BARCELONA, without a DOUBT (see what i did there? viola davis, you are in as well.)<BR/>but i feel that they are going to wait until next year to have her win for NINE. she's sexy! she's singing! remember how much we loved her last year in that woody allen movie? lets give it to her now!<BR/>she will just narrowly win over angelina jolie in the role of her career as a gangster's moll who becomes a gun-toting nun in the witness protection program. vengence has a new name and its...sister angie!abstewhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/06475102741113713421noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8256060.post-76854798230262223382008-12-01T13:27:00.000-05:002008-12-01T13:27:00.000-05:001) Oscar winner I don't know...but Oscar nominee a...1) Oscar winner I don't know...but Oscar nominee and Oscar presenter it's pretty sure!!!<BR/><BR/>2) I hope Winslet will go (and eventually win as) lead. So the line-up could be: Cruz-Davis-De Witt-Henson-Tomei and maybe Beyoncé...or that's just my wishful thinking...<BR/><BR/>3) Beyonce...why not? the reviews are good...it's a biopic...the role is baity...she's a star...even her perf in DREAMGIRLS generated a small buzz despite the outshining she suffered...<BR/><BR/>4) Henson, Tomei or <BR/>Davis could benefit a lot...<BR/><BR/>5) definitely possible...unfortunately. I wish Hathaway will be among the fab five...together with Winslet, Streep, Scott-Thomas and Jolie...<BR/><BR/>6) Beyonce...she could be the most sensual nun since the girls in The Black Narcissus...ok...I know, I know...that was a masterpiece and Kerr and Byron (shamefully both of them overlooked at the Oscars that year) were great actresses...but you can joke...I think...<BR/><BR/>mirkoAnonymousnoreply@blogger.com