tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8256060.post6440805678032777562..comments2024-03-17T10:11:46.952-04:00Comments on Film Experience Blog: Collective Best Actress PredictionNATHANIEL Rhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/11597109147678235399noreply@blogger.comBlogger40125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8256060.post-14703744353945695432007-03-25T17:44:00.000-04:002007-03-25T17:44:00.000-04:00Carli did not have Beyonce Knowles predicted a yea...Carl<BR/><BR/>i did not have Beyonce Knowles predicted a year in advance no. I had Jennifer Hudson predicted for supporting a year in advance.<BR/><BR/>my top five a year in advance for Best Actress last year were:<BR/><BR/>bening -running with scissros<BR/>blanchett -good german<BR/>judd -bug<BR/>paquin -margaret<BR/>winslet -little children<BR/><BR/>with only winslet making it. <BR/><BR/>And you're totally right about consensus being not necessarily promising in terms of Oscar this far out.<BR/><BR/>For example. I was the only major pundit that I know of last year that did not predict FLAGS OF OUR FATHERS in their first lineup and along with Dreamgirls it was considered the shoo-in. famously neither of the top two consensus choices made it.NATHANIEL Rhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/11597109147678235399noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8256060.post-25880287642289555722007-03-25T09:39:00.000-04:002007-03-25T09:39:00.000-04:00carl, I tend to agree with the fact that "nobody k...carl, I tend to agree with the fact that "nobody knows anything" and the likelihood of a serious match with the consensus is minimal. I procrastinated predicting and ended up forgetting, so I'm not actually playing, but I'd argue that best actress is actually far more consistent than most other categories. First off, in terms of competition, I think last year was an anomaly. 2005 was a weaker year for oscar style performances, 2004 was fairly good, 2003 was weak again, etc.<BR/><BR/> I'm a bit surprised that there are those dismissing Blanchett's chances because it has happened only once (twice if you count O'Toole) before. There was a very consistent outcry when she lost in 98 and the feeling that she was robbed then hasn't really dissipated. But moreso, how many performers really return to oscar nominated roles in sequels? Oscar nominated films (in major categories) aren't exactly sequel whores.<BR/><BR/> Anyone wanna make a list?<BR/><BR/>I can think of Jack Nicholson (Chinatown, The Two Jakes), Al Pacino (The Godfather I and II), Peter O'Toole (Becket, The Lion in Winter), Anthony Hopkins (The Silence of the Lambs, Hannibal), James Cromwell (Babe and Pig in the City), Ian McKellan (LOTR films--hedging a bit, I know)Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8256060.post-58467986865859996442007-03-24T22:16:00.000-04:002007-03-24T22:16:00.000-04:00I am a little surprised at the relief and/or self-...I am a little surprised at the relief and/or self-congratuatory tone with which some in this thread are noting how many of their choices match the 'top five' consensus. The more years that pass, the more convinced I become of the wisdom of the oft-quoted first rule of Oscar prognostication - "Nobody Knows Anything". Note that Nathaniel's April Fool's predictions last year included (as memory serves) Beyonce Knowles and Nicole Kidman for roles that did not succeed, and Ashley Judd for a movie that was not even released in 2006. That latter problem could do in a lot of folks in this contest, as Nathaniel has already noted (and, having backed Judd this year in "Bug" as he did last year, I am all too aware.) In my humble opinion, the closer you are to the consensus, the less likely you are to be successful in this contest. <BR/><BR/>In my case, I have only one actress in the consensus on my list, and not for the consensus role (Natalie Portman in "Goya's Ghost"). I figure that her role in "The Other Boleyn Girl" is likely supporting (the other high-risk factor that could wipe out a lot of lists). And I have difficulty seeing the Academy giving Cate a second bite of the apple for a role they already nominated her for once, even if they did so for Al Pacino's Michael Corleone. It would have to be 'out of the park' better than everyone else, and this category has been pretty competitive lately. <BR/><BR/>You heard it here first...your contest winners will not have more than two consensus picks on their lists, and I would be even less surprised to see the winner have none.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8256060.post-29720756657799697542007-03-24T20:48:00.000-04:002007-03-24T20:48:00.000-04:00touchetoucheGlenn Dunkshttps://www.blogger.com/profile/05424659636310160482noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8256060.post-36257804176308166352007-03-24T16:44:00.000-04:002007-03-24T16:44:00.000-04:00After "It's Hard out there for a Pimp" won the Aca...After "It's Hard out there for a Pimp" won the Academy Award for Best Original Song, I think anything is possible.Mariushttps://www.blogger.com/profile/14606970820680869047noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8256060.post-23141481811273227572007-03-24T11:26:00.000-04:002007-03-24T11:26:00.000-04:00That made me laugh. I'd be the first to bow down t...That made me laugh. I'd be the first to bow down to you if it turns out to be true, but I honestly don't see that happening. Not at all.<BR/><BR/>Aren't the pretty actresses meant to win the Oscar and <I>then</I> make the silly superhero movie? <B>:P</B>Glenn Dunkshttps://www.blogger.com/profile/05424659636310160482noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8256060.post-73582605928598413632007-03-24T04:00:00.000-04:002007-03-24T04:00:00.000-04:00I am pleasantly surprised I am the only one with a...I am pleasantly surprised I am the only one with a vote of confidence in Miss Alba. I have faith she will play a blind woman as we've never seen before. If the character is anything like the original "The Eye," it will be a challenging dual role for her. (After "The Departed," the Academy are gonna be suckers for HK-remakes!)<BR/><BR/>Plus, acting classes from Oscar nominee Felicity "tough cookie" Huffman were so intense, Alba cried.<BR/><BR/>Her newfound hobbies are "turning down roles" and telling studio bosses to kiss her a--. Clearly she is doing this because she is following the footsteps of Rachel McAdams and being very selective what roles she takes.<BR/><BR/>The sleeping giant has awaken and her name is Jessica Alba, Oscar nominee 2008. <BR/><BR/>I wished you guys had the option to change your predictions. Good luck! :)Unknownhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/16277438380965440822noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8256060.post-91202108821612397292007-03-24T00:35:00.000-04:002007-03-24T00:35:00.000-04:00LOL @ Natalie being best actress...I'm 100% positi...LOL @ Natalie being best actress...I'm 100% positive she's supporting...who called it first? ;)Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8256060.post-23485961594121968512007-03-23T23:08:00.000-04:002007-03-23T23:08:00.000-04:00they could get such great play out of that with th...they could get such great play out of that with that SNL Dakota Fanning ShowNATHANIEL Rhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/11597109147678235399noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8256060.post-60158374365054228262007-03-23T23:02:00.000-04:002007-03-23T23:02:00.000-04:00Nat, I haven't read the book and it seems like Ark...Nat, I haven't read the book and it seems like Arkaan clearly knows more than I do. I was just guessing. I doubt they'd stick both Phoenix and Ruffalo into Lead, and if there are three women (Connelly, Sorvino and Fanning) gunning for Supporting, they'd probably bump one up to Lead (Connelly). Yeah, I was just using common sense, but obviously it's too early to tell.<BR/><BR/>Wouldn't it be hilarious if <B>ELLE</B> Fanning got an Oscar nod before Dakota. I think the world would spin off it's axis.Glenn Dunkshttps://www.blogger.com/profile/05424659636310160482noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8256060.post-74459788219286233352007-03-23T20:30:00.000-04:002007-03-23T20:30:00.000-04:00SPOILERS TO RESERVATION ROAD!!!! SPOILERS SPOILERS...<B>SPOILERS TO RESERVATION ROAD!!!! SPOILERS SPOILERS SPOILERS SPOILERS</B><BR/><BR/> This was one of my favourite books of the late 90's (how favourite? I remember being ticked off when <I>The Hours</I> beat it for The Pulitzer Prize. That said, I haven't read it in years, so if you have a correction, please make it<BR/><BR/> The narrative follows two tracks. The first track is of the Learner family (Joaquin Phoenix and Jennifer Connelly are the husband/wife; Elle Fanning is their daughter and Sean Curley plays their son) as they learn to deal with the <B>MEGA FUCKING SPOILER</B> death of their son (Curley's character - named Josh Learner) from a hit and run. In terms of bait, it's Phoenix's story first, Connelly's next and Fanning's last (she's clearly supporting and yeah, the potential for bait is there: she gets a scene where she blames herself for the accident. It's heartbreaking to read). The main thrust comes from their struggle with grief (obviously), with a second really moving thread coming from the difficulty of trying to parent in such a situation.<BR/><BR/> The second track comes from Dwight Arno (Mark Ruffalo). He's in a shitty relationship with his ex-wife (played by Sorvino) and is struggling to have a better one with his son. He's a bit of a sadsack type character... anyway, he's the one who hits (and kills) Josh Learner.<BR/><BR/> If Ruffalo is pushed supporting, it'll be more like Blanchett's situation (where she was a leading character but if you could only choose one lead, you'd choose Dench) as opposed to McAvoy or Foxx in Collateral (where they were inarguably THE leading character and suggesting otherwise would drive one to embolism), but as I see it<BR/><BR/>Lead: Phoenix, Ruffalo<BR/>Borderline: Connelly (it really depends on how they adapt the story: she could easily fade a bit)<BR/>Supporting: Sorvino, Fanning.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8256060.post-70647534860325644852007-03-23T12:44:00.000-04:002007-03-23T12:44:00.000-04:00thanx nathaniel, i see myself in the lsit now.thanx nathaniel, i see myself in the lsit now.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8256060.post-11568395224571458182007-03-23T10:20:00.000-04:002007-03-23T10:20:00.000-04:00I think Kidman is going to be in the frame for a d...I think Kidman is going to be in the frame for a double nomination this year. Margot At The Wedding sounds promising for a Best Actress nom, but I actually think her best chance of a nomination will be in the Best Supporting Actress catergory. It's hard to envision Kidman not knocking an ice cold bitch like Mrs Coulter in The Golden Compass, out of the park.<BR/><BR/>Margot At The Wedding could be one of those little oddities that critics don't support or doesn't find an audience (ie The Life Aquatic, Birth, The Good German ect). I'm more confident of Kidman getting in for The Golden Compass.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8256060.post-77878701233449904922007-03-23T10:03:00.000-04:002007-03-23T10:03:00.000-04:00kamikaze, what are you basing that on?do you know ...kamikaze, what are you basing that on?<BR/>do you know the material. please elaborate. i need all the help i can get with the year in advance nightmare ;)NATHANIEL Rhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/11597109147678235399noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8256060.post-16271851852621307122007-03-23T09:32:00.000-04:002007-03-23T09:32:00.000-04:00Hmmm... I match 2/5 with that. Bishil is my predic...Hmmm... I match 2/5 with that. Bishil is my prediction for that "breakout" nom. Let's see how I score. This should be fun.Sidhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/16647511701225586270noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8256060.post-78462222921183172082007-03-23T09:22:00.000-04:002007-03-23T09:22:00.000-04:00BTW, Reservation Road should really be:LEAD:Joaqui...BTW, <I>Reservation Road</I> should really be:<BR/><BR/>LEAD:<BR/>Joaquin Phoenix, Jennifer Connolly<BR/><BR/>SUPPORTING:<BR/>Mark Ruffalo, Mira Sorvino, Everyone elseGlenn Dunkshttps://www.blogger.com/profile/05424659636310160482noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8256060.post-50594189411742034362007-03-23T09:11:00.000-04:002007-03-23T09:11:00.000-04:00Ja, In my entire early bird predictions I have Sar...Ja, In my entire early bird predictions I have Sarandon down as a Supporting Actress prediction for <I>In the Valley of Elah</I>.<BR/><BR/>John T, don't even consider the prospect of there being someone who's <B>not</B> on there. It is possible that a foreign one could come along (in the Catalina Sandino Moreno vein). Cannes will tell us if there's any foreign film that has an early chance of breaking out (as we saw with <I>Volver</I> and <I>Pan's Labyrinth</I> last year).Glenn Dunkshttps://www.blogger.com/profile/05424659636310160482noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8256060.post-47707053100535457592007-03-23T08:49:00.001-04:002007-03-23T08:49:00.001-04:00Actually, it's like throwing darts at Paris Hilton...Actually, it's like throwing darts at Paris Hilton blindfolded and wearing a yellow tutu with green stockings from 113 miles away while punching a baby kangaroo and being punched by it's mama.<BR/><BR/>Wow, that's an amazing mental picture, lol.J.D.https://www.blogger.com/profile/17126912928153855523noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8256060.post-4740437603900244242007-03-23T08:49:00.000-04:002007-03-23T08:49:00.000-04:00JS the general consensus on Georgia Rules box offi...<B>JS</B> the general consensus on Georgia Rules box office in terms of your guesses seemed to be in the $50s. but there's people guessing as low as $16 and as high as $125ish.<BR/><BR/>if it hits, say $54 though this tiebreaker question won't help much. heeNATHANIEL Rhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/11597109147678235399noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8256060.post-26837643936923291152007-03-23T08:47:00.000-04:002007-03-23T08:47:00.000-04:00This comment has been removed by the author.J.D.https://www.blogger.com/profile/17126912928153855523noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8256060.post-6344631661637520932007-03-23T08:36:00.000-04:002007-03-23T08:36:00.000-04:00Adam K-Streep was my sixth choice, but I figured t...Adam K-Streep was my sixth choice, but I figured that she'd go supporting for that one for some reason, so I went with Fonda instead (it could turn out to be that they both go supporting, who knows?)<BR/><BR/>Nathaniel-This is exciting! I can't wait to see how this plays out (particularly if there's a Best Actress nominee that not even 112 people can predict-proving that at a year in advance, it's like throwing darts blindfolded). I'm also excited that three of my predix are listed in the Top 5.John Thttps://www.blogger.com/profile/12778817752411507792noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8256060.post-75531461160361989392007-03-23T08:04:00.000-04:002007-03-23T08:04:00.000-04:00boyd the rule is that you can't be nominated twice...<B>boyd</B> the rule is that you can't be nominated twice in one category (for actors. offscreen people can. there have been reprise performances nominated again like Al Pacino in the Godfather films.<BR/><BR/><B>16</B> everyones ballots ARE posted. just click on any of the "contestant board" links and you'll see all 100 plus.<BR/><BR/>that page will evolve as soon as the spreadsheets are done and the points begin.NATHANIEL Rhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/11597109147678235399noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8256060.post-64671759640805470122007-03-23T07:34:00.000-04:002007-03-23T07:34:00.000-04:00These are interesting predictions. Two actresses f...These are interesting predictions. Two actresses from my list are there. But, I still have high hopes on my other Oscar Best Actress Nominees hopefuls.Kamilahttps://www.blogger.com/profile/02427390262750578341noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8256060.post-68146164886039868042007-03-23T06:17:00.000-04:002007-03-23T06:17:00.000-04:00Not to be the one to spoil all the fun, but isn't ...Not to be the one to spoil all the fun, but isn't there an Academy rule that states that actors cannot be nominated for playing the same role twice? Wouldn't that mean Blanchett is out?Boydhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/08911661238937757140noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8256060.post-69479739276625716962007-03-23T04:45:00.000-04:002007-03-23T04:45:00.000-04:00ok nathaniel, I'm martin again, I already send it ...ok nathaniel, I'm martin again, I already send it back again... I hope you receive it this time... If not well, I'll play from my house... It's just that I feel so confident about my predictios (or at least I wold love to see that happening).Anonymousnoreply@blogger.com