tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8256060.post8416401930033256765..comments2024-03-17T10:11:46.952-04:00Comments on Film Experience Blog: Final Oscar PredictionsNATHANIEL Rhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/11597109147678235399noreply@blogger.comBlogger64125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8256060.post-27738456901692910062008-02-24T14:10:00.000-05:002008-02-24T14:10:00.000-05:00...and Bourne Ultimatum for Editing, which I forgo......and <B>Bourne Ultimatum</B> for Editing, which I forgot to post.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8256060.post-5186316943802612242008-02-24T14:06:00.000-05:002008-02-24T14:06:00.000-05:00Can I hijack this comment section to make my own p...Can I hijack this comment section to make my own predictions? I didn't mean to make them, but couldn't restrain myself. I blame this site. :D<BR/><BR/>Picture: <B>No Country for Old Men</B><BR/>Director: <B>Julian Schnabel</B><BR/>Actor: <B>Johnny Depp</B>. Cause what fun it is not to predict some <I>real</I> upsets? :) Five years ago nobody imagined DDL losing, too. And consider both how long Depp had gone ignored by the Academy until 2004, <I>and</I> that he must have enough followers there now to have gotten nominated three times since (and for non-obvious roles to boot).<BR/>Actress: <B>Julie Christie</B><BR/>Supp Actor: <B>Javier Bardem</B><BR/>Supp Actress: I agree with Nathaniel that every outcome is conceiveable here. I am going with an early favourite <B>Amy Ryan</B>. (<I>My</I> favourite would be the brilliant Saoirse Ronan. Just so you know I am not always swayed by my personal feelings... :)) <BR/><BR/>Orig Screenplay: <B>Tony Gilroy</B> (...sometimes I can't help being swayed, though. And I *desperately* want anything but <I>Juno</I> to win this. Could the goodwill for the <I>Bourne</I> trilogy help Gilroy defeat the stripper-turned-media-darling?)<BR/>Adapted Screenplay: <B>The Coens</B><BR/>Cinematography: My gut feeling is that the novelty factor will bring <B>Janusz Kaminski</B> his third statuette. That said, literally anything can happen here. (Including <I>Atonement</I>, which some people have written off - as the most "transparent", I suppose. Well, arguably, so were <I>Fellowship of the Ring</I>, <I>Memoirs of a Geisha</I> and <I>Pan's Labyrinth</I> in their respective years. Yet all of them won in large part due to memorable art direction, costumes and/or special effects.)<BR/>Art Direction: <B>There Will Be Blood</B>. I keep changing my mind all the time, though. The win for <I>American Gangster</I> is the only verdict in this category that would truly surprise me.<BR/>Costumes: <B>Atonement</B><BR/>Make-up: I fear it will be <B>Norbit</B>. Hopefully not.<BR/>FX: <B>Pirates of the Caribbean</B>. <I>Transformers</I> have "only" Giant F****n' Robots. <I>Pirates</I> keep surprising visually (and being a sequel to an already awarded film is an adavantage in such cases - ask LOTR). Compare the win for <I>What Dreams May Come</I> over <I>Armageddon</I>. <BR/><BR/>Sound Mixing: <B>No Country for Old Men</B><BR/>Sound Editing: <B>Bourne Ultimatum</B> (Yes, you read that right. I have just predicted near-complete shut-out for TWBB and a complete one for Transformers. So shoot me. :P)<BR/>Music: <B>Atonement</B><BR/>Song: <B>Once</B><BR/><BR/>Animated: <B>Ratatouille</B>. I am rooting for <I>Persepolis</I>, though, and I don't find it totally impossible. Especially if Remy is the one who slays the <I>Juno</I> Behemoth in Screenplay, or grabs a sound Oscar or two. Pixar is no Aardman - they do lose occasionally.<BR/>Animated short: <B>Peter and the Wolf</B><BR/>Doc: <B>No End in Sight</B><BR/>Doc Short: <B>Sari's Mother</B><BR/>Live Action Short: <B>The Tonto Woman</B> (by the votes of <I>3:10 to Yuma</I> fans, compensating for the shortage of nominations for that movie)<BR/>Foreign: This category is as unpredictable as ever. Most people are betting on <I>Counterfeiters</I> - is it because of the war theme? But there are two other war-dramas in play - with <I>Katyn</I> tackling the theme in a more "profound" way (even though the quality is god-awful if you look past it) on the one hand, and <I>Beaufort</I> in a more "typical" (and thus viewer-friendly) way on the other. All three will get their fair share of support. But in the end I am guessing that the votes will split between them and of the remaining two, the connection to the well-loved American classic will give <B>12</B> a win.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8256060.post-65603783143804450862008-02-24T09:38:00.000-05:002008-02-24T09:38:00.000-05:00Yay, more snarky crap about biopics. Whatever. ...Yay, more snarky crap about biopics. Whatever. They're not going away anytime soon, and many people adore them and find much worth in them, including the Academy.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8256060.post-17026796011298205982008-02-24T08:30:00.000-05:002008-02-24T08:30:00.000-05:00kamikaze, thanks for clarifying your position. How...kamikaze, thanks for clarifying your position. How can famous actors even look at themselves in the morning when they refuse to acknowledge that the recreation of <I>another</I> famous person is their true calling in life!?NATHANIEL Rhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/11597109147678235399noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8256060.post-33355815424899507432008-02-24T04:28:00.000-05:002008-02-24T04:28:00.000-05:00Daveylow, Javier Bardem in Before Night Falls and ...Daveylow, Javier Bardem in <I>Before Night Falls</I> and Jamie Bell (<B>sigh</B>) in <I>Billy Elliot</I> were the same year so no matter who won that year there'd be a "so and so was robbed!" aspect. Which is always the way.<BR/><BR/>I read at AwardsDaily recently that they were disappointed <I>Into the Wild</I> was "robbed" of a best picture spot. But if it had taken <I>Atonement</I>'s place they'd be saying <I>Atonement</I> was robbed. <BR/><BR/>On the Marion vs Julie factor - well, people know my stance. Marion Cotillard <I>is</I> Edith Piaf. Julie Christie is a COLD HEARTLESS WENCH WHO DOESN'T EVEN PORTRAY ANYONE FAMOUS!!!!! So, naturally, she's the worst actress on the face of the Earth. MARCEL!!!Glenn Dunkshttps://www.blogger.com/profile/05424659636310160482noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8256060.post-89035327382309837552008-02-23T17:38:00.000-05:002008-02-23T17:38:00.000-05:00MARCEL!MARCEL!Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8256060.post-1766608729078685742008-02-23T16:33:00.000-05:002008-02-23T16:33:00.000-05:00Such divided love can only mean one thing: they'll...Such divided love can only mean one thing: they'll all cancer each other out, Cate Blanchett will win her first BA Oscar, and Nathaniel will have a stroke.<BR/><BR/>And that was today's fantasy scenario.<BR/><BR/>PS: I think it'll be Cotillard.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8256060.post-1958917361673150402008-02-23T15:20:00.000-05:002008-02-23T15:20:00.000-05:00ok. gotcha. anyway... the cotillard/christie war h...ok. gotcha. anyway... the cotillard/christie war has prompted me to post something else now.<BR/><BR/>it's an olive branch. maybe i'm more compassionate than i was in say 2004... ;) but it's sad to me that whoever wins tomorrow night... so many people will be sad.NATHANIEL Rhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/11597109147678235399noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8256060.post-50099667023802895812008-02-23T15:07:00.000-05:002008-02-23T15:07:00.000-05:00I'm talking about AwardsDaily. Geez, keep up.I'm talking about AwardsDaily. Geez, keep up.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8256060.post-23695619015955369652008-02-23T15:01:00.000-05:002008-02-23T15:01:00.000-05:00Page is Canadian so if she won it could still be a...Page is Canadian so if she won it could still be all non-AmericanAnonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8256060.post-11503781644661737742008-02-23T14:34:00.000-05:002008-02-23T14:34:00.000-05:00anon i don't recall daveylow saying those things.i...<B>anon</B> i don't recall daveylow saying those things.<BR/><BR/><I>i've</I> probably called it "theatrical" and "biopic mimicry" but I would think even her greatest champions would admit that those adjectives qualify.<BR/><BR/>and when it comes to the fan rage... well, this is not the only site who has noticed that Marion Cotillard's army of supporters are more than a little out of control in the way they attack and police any comment made about her or any praise for any of her competitors.<BR/><BR/>it's a very strange Oscar season in that way. I can't recall the last time a performance seemed to make people so angry <I>against</I> other fine performances.<BR/><BR/>very strange development this whole seasonNATHANIEL Rhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/11597109147678235399noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8256060.post-22291699244205549712008-02-23T14:22:00.000-05:002008-02-23T14:22:00.000-05:00Yes you have. You've called Cotillard's performan...Yes you have. You've called Cotillard's performance amateur, theatrical, biopic mimicry, and have made every change to belittle and condescend to her fans as being silly, overwrought fanboys. Don't backpeddle now and act like you've never said a bad word about her or her supporters, b/c it would be a lie.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8256060.post-32623416873778234692008-02-23T12:39:00.000-05:002008-02-23T12:39:00.000-05:00but see daveylow one must never speak in any way a...but see <B>daveylow</B> one must never speak <I>in any way</I> against Marion Cotillard. It's treason! ;)NATHANIEL Rhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/11597109147678235399noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8256060.post-28553415884092218262008-02-23T12:19:00.000-05:002008-02-23T12:19:00.000-05:00Nice hostile post anon. I have never said Cotillar...Nice hostile post anon. <BR/><BR/>I have never said Cotillard was awful in any of my posts.gabrieloakhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/00460263240309976652noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8256060.post-1076667904384638262008-02-23T12:15:00.000-05:002008-02-23T12:15:00.000-05:00I think it's a little stupid at this point to rely...I think it's a little stupid at this point to rely on the precursor formula as of now. According to the precursors, Into the Wild was a lock, Atonement was out and Tommy Lee Jones and Laura Linney died long ago. <BR/>Cotillard doesn't have the vast majority of critics on her side, but she's picked up an incredible momentum that we can only hope will be a victory.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8256060.post-78988875494297181192008-02-23T12:05:00.000-05:002008-02-23T12:05:00.000-05:00This comment has been removed by the author.gabrieloakhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/00460263240309976652noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8256060.post-51098171468875717902008-02-23T11:32:00.001-05:002008-02-23T11:32:00.001-05:00daveylow, how are the Marion Cotillard fans any di...daveylow, how are the Marion Cotillard fans any different than you running your mouth whenever you can about how awful Marion Cotillard is, how her fans are just silly fanboys, and how amazing Julie Christie is? You pull that same shit at AwardsDaily, so cut it out.<BR/><BR/>And no one's taking the BAFTAs to mean more than they actually do. But if that contingent of British voters (who do overlap in the Academy) voted for Marion Cotillard over their own Julie Christie, then that does indicate a strong voting block that could tip the scales in a close race (note "close" -- don't pull the "Atonement" in BP argument there, b/c that's not a close race for "Atonement" -- it is between "No Country for Old Men" and "There Will Be Blood", with maybe "Michael Clayton" or "Juno" benefitting from a vote split).Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8256060.post-61026398478789761262008-02-23T11:32:00.000-05:002008-02-23T11:32:00.000-05:00Ian McKellen losing for "God's & Monsters"...Ellen...Ian McKellen losing for "God's & Monsters"...Ellen Burstyn losing to Julia Roberts....Sissy Spacek losing to Halle Berry.....aughhh. This crap happens over and over in the past few years. My hope is Julie Christie wins - clearly the very best. I've read Marion Cotillard is campaigning big time & hitting the Hollywood party circuit & even has a dvd mailing of her "behind the scenes" transformation (it's also on YouTube). Actors like Julie Christie, Sissy Spacek, Ellen Burstyn - simply don't care to do stuff like that. They may not win (recently) - but good for them. BTW - good luck to Sissy Spacek's husband. I also blame Oprah for some recent bad decisions - she blabbed on & on about CRASH...Denzel....Halle...she has her agenda too. Her taste is all in her mouth....take a look at some of her "book club" slections.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8256060.post-8340210539838841522008-02-23T10:40:00.000-05:002008-02-23T10:40:00.000-05:00I'd love for Swinton to take the (well earned) gol...I'd love for Swinton to take the (well earned) gold but I really don't think she has much of a chance. Why? <BR/><BR/>If she wins that means - save for a Page upset in the lead actress category (as if...) - the four acting awards will go to Non-Americans. This is unprecedented; as far as I can tell, the most there's ever been is a 50/50 split between natives and foreigners in the acting categories and as much as the Academy lurves those transatlantic thesps with cut-glass accents and pallid complexions, they want to celebrate their own too. <BR/><BR/>Thus Ruby Dee, riding a wave of sentiment and jingoism, will probs scoop this one. To be fair she's also *quite* good considering the odious script and her miniscule sreen time. Amy Ryan could still pull through - wasn't it The Film Experience itself that pronounced on the Academy's championing of White Trash females?<BR/><BR/>I don't want this to happen... so counter-arguments/ exposure of holes in logic DEFINETLY appreciated!Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8256060.post-8293876227711459062008-02-23T08:42:00.000-05:002008-02-23T08:42:00.000-05:00well, it is IMDB. they're catering to their crowd ...well, it is IMDB. they're catering to their crowd is all methinks.<BR/><BR/>originally i did think Page might start surging but didn't that buzz notion quiet real quick?NATHANIEL Rhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/11597109147678235399noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8256060.post-89100193416999493322008-02-23T08:29:00.000-05:002008-02-23T08:29:00.000-05:00imdb's question of the day is"Ellen Page is favore...imdb's question of the day is<BR/>"Ellen Page is favored to win the Best Actress Oscar for Juno; do you think any other nominee has a chance at winning the award?"<BR/><BR/>Since when did she become the favourite?Joelhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/16638478847775628906noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8256060.post-20172457824406458222008-02-23T02:00:00.000-05:002008-02-23T02:00:00.000-05:00I really should be prepared for Christie to lose. ...I really should be prepared for Christie to lose. Several of my favorite performances have lost over the years--and some weren't nominated. <BR/><BR/>Let's see: there's Heath Ledger, of course. Paul Newman in Nobody's Fool, The Verdict. Imelda Staunton in Vera Drake. Kenneth Branagh in Henry V. Ian McKellen in Lord of the Rings. Emma Thompson and Kate Winslet in Sense and Sensibility. Laura Linney in You Can Count on Me. Isabel Adjani in The Story of Adele H. Javier Bardem in Before Night Falls. Anthony Hopkins in The Remains of the Day (far superior to his Hannibal Lecter). Michael Caine in Educating Rita (probably my favorite performance of his, next to his pairing with Connery in The Man Who Would Be King). Audrey Hepburn in Two for the Road (not nominated). Cicely Tyson in Sounder. Michelle Pfeiffer in The Fabulous Baker Boys. Jamie Bell in Billy Elliott (not nominated). David Thewlis in Naked (not nominated).<BR/>Ziyi Zhang and Michelle Yeoh in Crouching Tiger (not nominated)....<BR/><BR/><BR/>Anyway you get the point.gabrieloakhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/00460263240309976652noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8256060.post-27524838147675100452008-02-23T01:29:00.000-05:002008-02-23T01:29:00.000-05:00On Roger Ebert's taste: I always remind myself tha...On Roger Ebert's taste: I always remind myself that he wrote Beyond the Valley of the Dolls.The Jaded Armchair Reviewerhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/05511211427198395696noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8256060.post-44984880542458688692008-02-23T01:06:00.000-05:002008-02-23T01:06:00.000-05:00speaking of ties, no joke, i dreamt a three-way ti...speaking of ties, no joke, i dreamt a three-way tie in supp'tress just a few days ago. first blanchett, then ronan, and then for some reason i was there, and then for some reason i was getting an oscar -- i mean, it was just a dream. anyway, been on this site much?Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8256060.post-29365995554056035462008-02-23T00:00:00.000-05:002008-02-23T00:00:00.000-05:00daveylow this is one thing I really hate about the...<B>daveylow</B> this is one thing I really hate about the Oscar punditry game. there seems to be a very thin line, perception wise, in prediction versus "should" so <BR/><BR/>if I predict a loss for Christie it somehow distorts itself in the cosmos as to me not having faith in how brilliant she is or whatnot.<BR/><BR/>it's very strange.<BR/><BR/>I think Christie is the best this year by a significant margin. But that has absolutely no bearing on whether or not she'll win the Oscar. I don't vote. My predictions don't influence votes, etcetera.<BR/><BR/>hee...<BR/><BR/>obviously i'm not roger ebert who can get these bandwagons started for Juno or Crash or what have you. too bad with all that power his taste isn't better ;)<BR/><BR/>certainly i won't be surprised if Christie wins at all. crossing my fingers.NATHANIEL Rhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/11597109147678235399noreply@blogger.com