tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8256060.post116826926198501970..comments2024-03-17T10:11:46.952-04:00Comments on Film Experience Blog: The Supporting Actor Oscar Race. It's Smokin' HotNATHANIEL Rhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/11597109147678235399noreply@blogger.comBlogger34125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8256060.post-1168665351048460682007-01-13T00:15:00.000-05:002007-01-13T00:15:00.000-05:00It's weird how people still doubt precursor leader...It's weird how people still doubt precursor leader Haley. I think he'll be in.<BR/><BR/><B>01. Eddie Murphy, Dreamgirls<BR/>02. Jackie Earle Haley, Little Children<BR/>03. Alan Arkin, Little Miss Sunshine<BR/>04. Jack Nicholson, The Departed<BR/>05. Michael Sheen, The Queen<BR/>--------<BR/>06. Djimon Hounsou, Blood Diamond<BR/>07. Mark Wahlberg, The Departed<BR/>08. Ben Affleck, Hollywoodland<BR/>09. Brad Pitt, Babel<BR/>10. Leonardo DiCaprio, The Departed</B><BR/><BR/>I can TOTALLY see AMPAS putting DiCaprio in lead for BD and supporting for TD. I mean, why wouldn't they vote the same way they voted at SAG.<BR/><BR/>But anyway, Murphy's an obvious lock--for a NOM, that is. Haley I'd say is the next in line. I mean, there were cheers for him when the SAG names were called (Leo got more and Adriana received the most overall). Plus, having Winslet as a cast member will help keep you on people's minds. It's a great benefit. But I think they love their comebacks enough to nominate him--and the 9 precursor wins don't hurt. Speaking of comebacks, Arkin's made a nice return to glory. Hell, he could actually walk away with the prize. He's in a beloved movie and is a hilarious old vet.<BR/><BR/>Now, Nicholson missed out and that IS telling. Even if he is dear old lovable Jack, if they REALLY loved this performance, wouldn't both he AND Leo have gotten in? Methinks that would be the case. However, if the Academy listened and replaced Blood Diamond with The Departed, then Leo should stick in lead and Jack in supporting. Then, I think Sheen will upset by riding in on Mirren's coattails. Pitt feels out--he NEEDED SAG. There's Babel love, but it's ALL for the ladies. Affleck has disappointed and might seem like one of those potential bridesmaids who was left out of the bridal party this year. And Hounsou, SAG nod or not, might not be the type of performance the Academy will support--but there's certainly enough support there that he could still make it. I just not sure how many will rank him high on their lists. After that, I'd say Wahlberg might only get in if The Departed love is so strong, it's unstoppable. And there are plenty who feel he deserves more attention than Jack and Matt combined.ePastor Jameshttps://www.blogger.com/profile/09650421834002422666noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8256060.post-1168638203958756302007-01-12T16:43:00.000-05:002007-01-12T16:43:00.000-05:00Or Pan's Labyrinth's Sergei Lopez. How cool would ...Or Pan's Labyrinth's Sergei Lopez. How cool would that be?Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8256060.post-1168635336150295112007-01-12T15:55:00.000-05:002007-01-12T15:55:00.000-05:00You know what I'd love? For Oscar to throw a curve...You know what I'd love? For Oscar to throw a curveball and nominate someone like Stanley Tucci or Steve Carell.Glenn Dunkshttps://www.blogger.com/profile/05424659636310160482noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8256060.post-1168625231353717732007-01-12T13:07:00.000-05:002007-01-12T13:07:00.000-05:00What I just also noticed is that Brad Pitt's track...What I just also noticed is that Brad Pitt's track record is looking like Nicole Kidman for Moulin Rouge...she was snubbed for the BAFTA'S AND SAG but she was nommed for Ensemble...and that's looking exactly like Brad's...but I think his two co-stars are taking away his light...and it doesn't matter if he wins the Globes cause the votes are already in...Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8256060.post-1168625093342428262007-01-12T13:04:00.000-05:002007-01-12T13:04:00.000-05:00Haley has 9 wins now (!!!) and his latest is from ...Haley has 9 wins now (!!!) and his latest is from Iowa were Little Children also took Best Pic, and Leo took Best Actor for The Departed....and Jackie has a great chance of being nommed and even has a chance to win...Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8256060.post-1168586272344630082007-01-12T02:17:00.000-05:002007-01-12T02:17:00.000-05:00Hmmm, I guess I'll guessArkinHaleyMurphyNicholsonS...Hmmm, I guess I'll guess<BR/><BR/>Arkin<BR/>Haley<BR/>Murphy<BR/>Nicholson<BR/>SheenVertigo's Psychohttps://www.blogger.com/profile/17701774152300870403noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8256060.post-1168584173160870212007-01-12T01:42:00.000-05:002007-01-12T01:42:00.000-05:00this is definitly the most exciting race of the ye...this is definitly the most exciting race of the year.<BR/><BR/>I'm certainly cheering for Hounsou and Michael Sheen.<BR/><BR/>--RC of strangeculture.blogspot.comRChttps://www.blogger.com/profile/11340006144797496514noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8256060.post-1168568831925057762007-01-11T21:27:00.000-05:002007-01-11T21:27:00.000-05:00i would actually say that anyone with the excepti...i would actually say that <B>anyone </B> with the exception of Hounsou, Wahlberg or Sheen could still win -- but they have to get nominated first.<BR/><BR/>the race to win is so different than the buildup to get the nomination. kinda like in politics ;)NATHANIEL Rhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/11597109147678235399noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8256060.post-1168566410571910862007-01-11T20:46:00.000-05:002007-01-11T20:46:00.000-05:00I think its..ArkinHaleyWahlbergNicholsonMurphyLook...I think its..<BR/><BR/>Arkin<BR/>Haley<BR/>Wahlberg<BR/>Nicholson<BR/>Murphy<BR/><BR/>Look for Haley or Arkin to win.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8256060.post-1168564840246817962007-01-11T20:20:00.000-05:002007-01-11T20:20:00.000-05:00In order of potential:1) Murphy2) Nicholson3) Houn...In order of potential:<BR/><BR/>1) Murphy<BR/>2) Nicholson<BR/>3) Hounsou<BR/>4) Wahlberg<BR/>5) Arkin<BR/><BR/>6) Sheen<BR/>7) Pitt<BR/>8) Haley<BR/>9) Affleck<BR/>10) Nighyevermoonhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/04665189293344870822noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8256060.post-1168563561121744782007-01-11T19:59:00.000-05:002007-01-11T19:59:00.000-05:00I was confident about Wahlberg but now have him as...I was confident about Wahlberg but now have him as a dark horse - just not sure if the supporting actor category can carry two actors from the same field. It happens fairly frequently for Supporting Actress (Godsford Park, Chicago and likely, Babel) but, to my memory, is rare in Supporting Actor. Stephen G, 1991 is over a decade ago (but thanks for the info, dude! - I've been trying to find it)! - also, more noticeably, it didn't happen at SAG this year.<BR/><BR/>I'm going for:<BR/>1. Murphy<BR/>2. Nicholson (someone from DEPARTED will get in and he's the most likely)<BR/>3. Arkin (support for SUNSHINE is strong)<BR/>4. Haley (a little-seen film but buzz from Winslet will help drive voters to it)<BR/>5. Housou (SAG shows a lot of love and DiCaprio's BFCA and Globe noms show - bizarrely! - support for the film)<BR/><BR/>Dark Horse: Wahlberg<BR/><BR/>Check out Red, Hot + Oscar at http://www.geocities.com/redhotoscarAnonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8256060.post-1168561688305706952007-01-11T19:28:00.000-05:002007-01-11T19:28:00.000-05:00Somebody please enlighten me! Is it really possibl...Somebody please enlighten me! Is it really possible that Leonardo Di Caprio gets a nomination in the supporting category for The Departed?Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8256060.post-1168559463874864242007-01-11T18:51:00.000-05:002007-01-11T18:51:00.000-05:00You could argue for anybody really, but my thinkin...You could argue for anybody really, but my thinking is:<BR/><BR/>Murphy<BR/>Nicholson<BR/>Arkin<BR/>Wahlberg and<BR/>Hounsou<BR/><BR/>I've finally given up on Sheen from the lack of mentions, but maybe a BAFTA nod will put him back on the radar. All the critics awards help Haley but, in a tight race, a more likeable role and a more widely seen film would help.<BR/><BR/>It's been a while since we've had 2 Supp Actors in the one film (cf Supp Actress) - 1991 (Bugsy), but it happened a lot in the 80s (Platoon, Terms of Endearment, Ordinary People) so it's hardly unprecedented.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8256060.post-1168557772481565752007-01-11T18:22:00.001-05:002007-01-11T18:22:00.001-05:00Yeah, Foxx definitely won the most critics awards....Yeah, Foxx definitely won the most critics awards.<BR/><BR/>Though this is a rather similar situation.adam k.https://www.blogger.com/profile/13485604493059621307noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8256060.post-1168556286798436782007-01-11T17:58:00.000-05:002007-01-11T17:58:00.000-05:00Felix, I believe that would be Paul Giamatti two y...Felix, I believe that would be Paul Giamatti two years ago.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8256060.post-1168553959560091742007-01-11T17:19:00.000-05:002007-01-11T17:19:00.000-05:001 Alan Arkin2 Jackie Earle Haley3 Djimon Hounsou4 ...1 Alan Arkin<BR/>2 Jackie Earle Haley<BR/>3 Djimon Hounsou<BR/>4 Eddie Murphy<BR/>5 Jack NicholsonAnonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8256060.post-1168553678744942682007-01-11T17:14:00.000-05:002007-01-11T17:14:00.000-05:00I am predicting:Alan ArkinLeonardo DiCaprio (The D...I am predicting:<BR/><BR/>Alan Arkin<BR/>Leonardo DiCaprio (The Departed)<BR/>Djimon Hounson<BR/>Eddie Murphy<BR/>Jack Nicholson<BR/><BR/>Alt: Michael Sheen<BR/>Surprise: Jackie Earle Haley<BR/><BR/>And I totally agree with your comments. By far, this is the most exciting race of this year's Oscar.Kamilahttps://www.blogger.com/profile/02427390262750578341noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8256060.post-1168551921861776972007-01-11T16:45:00.000-05:002007-01-11T16:45:00.000-05:00Jackie Earle Haley's role is kind of similar to th...Jackie Earle Haley's role is kind of similar to that of Tim Robbins in Mystic River, but now that I think of it, that side of his character was almost eliminated in the movie. I was thinking of the book. <BR/><BR/>It would be a first, but I think Haley is going to make the cut.<BR/><BR/>My snapshot picks: <BR/>Haley<BR/>Murphy<BR/>Wahlberg<BR/>Sheen<BR/>ArkinAnonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8256060.post-1168550026977404482007-01-11T16:13:00.000-05:002007-01-11T16:13:00.000-05:00Murphy seems locked, Nicholson seems likely... Wah...Murphy seems locked, Nicholson seems likely... Wahlberg also seems likely since he just won NSFC and that award has a way of pushing people over the edge (plus he's overdue, and people love his movie). Earle Haley is the bona fide critical favorite, and in a movie that people are actually watching (for Kate, mostly), and he has SAG, so I think he's in. And of course Arkin has the loved film and he's been everywhere but the globes (not a huge star). So I'm saying:<BR/><BR/>MURPHY<BR/>NICHOLSON<BR/>WAHLBERG<BR/>HALEY<BR/>ARKIN<BR/><BR/>Pitt is so hard to read. On the one hand, ALL he has is the globes, which always love him On the other, he's the third piece in the <EM>Babel</EM> puzzle, and it turns out people like the film... and SAG has reasons to pass on him. I say he's 6th.<BR/><BR/>And Sheen once seemed like a lock, but how often does someone make it without BFCA, HFPA, or SAG? Hardly ever. And when they do, they're late bloomers and true surprises. If people loved him in this, he'd have gotten more love. But still, it's possible...<BR/><BR/>And I'm assuming oscar voters just won't love <EM>Blood Diamond</EM> the way other groups have... if they can't nominate Leo, maybe they won't nominate Djimon either. Maybe they'll think he got his due with <EM>In America</EM>. Who knows.<BR/><BR/>And of course Damon and Carrell are actually not out of the question either. Tough one...adam k.https://www.blogger.com/profile/13485604493059621307noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8256060.post-1168548282134556842007-01-11T15:44:00.000-05:002007-01-11T15:44:00.000-05:00It's probably not likely, but I can't help thinkin...It's probably not likely, but I can't help thinking that Eddie Murphy could be a surprise snub. I've read on more than one occasion over the years that he has a reputation for burning bridges in Hollywood, for turning on producers, crew, et al after production wraps. That could bite him. On the other hand, he's made Hollywood an awful lot of money, and never played a character like this. <BR/><BR/>But I'm going with Sheen, Honsou, Nicholson, Murphy, and Damon, who I think could finally show up on the awards radar where it really counts. They love The Departed, and he's half of the setup. Wahlberg's also pretty popular there.<BR/><BR/>It's probably stupid not to include Arkin on that list, but I feel like he and Carrell are going to cancel each other out. But who the heck knows. This is one tough category to predict.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8256060.post-1168548010735773052007-01-11T15:40:00.000-05:002007-01-11T15:40:00.000-05:00I predict Alan Arkin, Jack Nicholson, Jackie Earl ...I predict Alan Arkin, Jack Nicholson, Jackie Earl Haley, Eddie Murphy, and Michael Sheen.<BR/><BR/>Insane category.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8256060.post-1168547227920820882007-01-11T15:27:00.000-05:002007-01-11T15:27:00.000-05:00Oh, and another reason why I think Hounsou has a g...Oh, and another reason why I think Hounsou has a good shot is that he has the most appealing and good-natured character out of the bunch. As simplistic and condescending as the part is (the noble native who sacrifices all), it's likely more enticing for an Academy member to embrace than a child predator, or mob boss, etc, etc. Even Murphy's character isn't all that likeable, and Wahlberg (asshole at times) and Arkin (creepy grampa) also have some dark moments.<BR/><BR/>I'm not saying he has a better chance than Murphy, Arkin or whoever simply because his character is heroic and unmarked, only that it's perhaps understandable why he has lasted this long while the film overall has been largely forgotten.Yaseen Alihttps://www.blogger.com/profile/05908587347677660287noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8256060.post-1168547195932046382007-01-11T15:26:00.000-05:002007-01-11T15:26:00.000-05:00LOCKS:Eddie MurphySTILL INCREDIBLY LIKELY:Jack Nic...<B>LOCKS:</B><BR/>Eddie Murphy<BR/><BR/><B>STILL INCREDIBLY LIKELY:</B><BR/>Jack Nicholson (Come on, he's Jack!)<BR/><BR/><B>TOO MANY PLACES, LIKELYNESS LIKELY:</B><BR/>Mark Wahlberg<BR/>Djimon Hounsou<BR/><BR/><B>A SURPRISE? I DON'T KNOW ABOUT THAT:</B><BR/>Brad Pitt<BR/><BR/><B>ALTERNATES:</B><BR/>Jackie Earl Haley<BR/>Alan Arkin<BR/>Ben Affleck<BR/>Michael Sheen<BR/><BR/>That's what I predict. It'll probably stay the same till the end.J.D.https://www.blogger.com/profile/17126912928153855523noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8256060.post-1168546181166326152007-01-11T15:09:00.000-05:002007-01-11T15:09:00.000-05:00Ahh, I will just have some funJack Nicolson - The ...Ahh, I will just have some fun<BR/><BR/>Jack Nicolson - The Departed<BR/>Eddie Murphy - Dreamgirls<BR/>Jackie Earle Haley - Little Children<BR/>Alan Arkin - Little Miss Sunshine<BR/>Brad Pitt - BabelMichael Parsonshttps://www.blogger.com/profile/17668853285292187310noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8256060.post-1168545823571189692007-01-11T15:03:00.000-05:002007-01-11T15:03:00.000-05:00Neat, I was just going to do a post about this, bu...Neat, I was just going to do a post about this, but I'm glad you did instead. Usually, I am so disinterested in this race, but this year it's the total opposite. Not for the fact that any of my favourites will make it in, but that we're sure to be surprised on nomination morning.<BR/><BR/>My take: Pitt and Sheen are out; if the former has not been able to sway any voting bodies outside the Globes, I'm not thinking he has much love in the actors' community presently. In September, I thought Sheen would be a lock, but sadly he's pretty much lost all steam.<BR/><BR/>I thought Hounsou and Earle Haley were dead until SAG. Since NBR has a shocking accuracy with nominees in this category, I think the former is in despite the weaknesses you bring up. I'd put Earle Haley sixth right now; it's just such a dicey role, and although I'm sure many respect the fearlessness in the performance, it's not one you can really *love*.<BR/><BR/>I think both <I>Departed</I> boys are in (despite SAG, Oscar looooves Jack, and there's lots of good will toward Wahlberg right now), barring a DiCaprio vote splitting fiasco (that's the real question right now - what messiness will result if votes are sent off in every direction?).<BR/><BR/>Steve Carell and Alan Arkin fight it out for the last spot, and I'm thinking the overall career/comeback love overcomes the comedian exercising dramatic capability.<BR/><BR/>My predix as of now:<BR/>1. Eddie Murphy, <I>Dreamgirls</I><BR/>2. Jack Nicholson, <I>The Departed</I><BR/>3. Mark Wahlberg, <I>The Departed</I><BR/>4. Alan Arkin, <I>Little Miss Sunshine</I><BR/>5. Djimon Hounsou, <I>Blood Diamond</I>Yaseen Alihttps://www.blogger.com/profile/05908587347677660287noreply@blogger.com