tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8256060.post1817098909504172524..comments2024-03-17T10:11:46.952-04:00Comments on Film Experience Blog: Prediction Revamps: Best Actor & Supporting ActorNATHANIEL Rhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/11597109147678235399noreply@blogger.comBlogger35125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8256060.post-84418423408175101912008-11-17T14:13:00.000-05:002008-11-17T14:13:00.000-05:00What do you all think about Heath Ledger's perform...What do you all think about Heath Ledger's performance in Dark Knight? I think he's really worthy of the Oscar...your thoughts?<BR/><BR/>I found a post on Peterman's Eye about supporting actors in general. Thought I'd share since it seems to come into play here.<BR/><BR/>http://www.petermanseye.com/anthologies/why-i-like/360-quite-the-character<BR/><BR/>Cheers!Unknownhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/10077498001565563455noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8256060.post-45542307267195498712008-10-29T02:54:00.000-04:002008-10-29T02:54:00.000-04:00i think this is the year of the clint backlash. c...i think this is the year of the clint backlash. changeling so-so recieved, although jolie still strong contender for actress. torino looks bad, but i dont think it necessarily will be terrible. that said, i do not think clint has this locked away by any stretch. he pulled off the two oscar worthy films in one year with flags of fathers and iwo jima, but the backlash has already begun with the negative reception of changeling. jolie has a solid chance with the nom, but if clint puts out another mixed review film (which definetely seems possible, did you see the trailer?) revoking his acting nomination will be the perfect payback. <BR/>even if torino does well, i predict the year of the pretty boys, meaning pitt and dicaprio make it in. that would make my predictions list penn, rourke, dicaprio, pitt, and langella.<BR/>langella, pitt and dicaprio are in danger of getting replaced, but i would give the edge to richard jenkins, not clint. jenkins has stayed relevant in everyones mind all year, whereas last year i think people forgot about tommy lee jones and he scored a nomination anyways.<BR/>ps. that magic emporium movie is too fresh in everyones mind for hoffman to pull this one off.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8256060.post-61410999540754795992008-10-27T20:15:00.000-04:002008-10-27T20:15:00.000-04:00Victor S said:"About "The Reader" and the "they're...Victor S said:<BR/><BR/>"About "The Reader" and the "they're both supporting" thing: Dont be surprised if Harvey put the kid who plays the young Ralph Fiennes as lead and both top billing stars as supporting. I know, its ridiculous, but its Harvey..."<BR/>----------------<BR/><BR/>I wouldn't even say it's ridiculous. Just judging from the book, Winslet's role could very well be considered supporting and David Kross might actually get the most screen time. He's a good actor, too (seen him in two films so far).Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8256060.post-33884260936159180902008-10-27T17:53:00.000-04:002008-10-27T17:53:00.000-04:00When did PSH go supporting?When did PSH go supporting?Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8256060.post-46963710590303891802008-10-27T16:23:00.000-04:002008-10-27T16:23:00.000-04:00I have not seen any of the movies for Actors... ex...I have not seen any of the movies for Actors... except Richard Jenkins ... whom I hope with all that is in me gets a nomination. I would probably take Eastwood out of your five choices and keep the rest.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8256060.post-60841133340004811622008-10-27T14:31:00.000-04:002008-10-27T14:31:00.000-04:00Clint won't stop until he has a best actor Oscar t...Clint won't stop until he has a best actor Oscar to add to his ton of Oscars he's won already. That "Dirty Harry" meets "M$B" meets "Crash" meets "Mystic River" trailer has me convinced. He's winning best actor. I'm calling it already. He'll be the late-surge establishment (re: old vet that the Academy membership can feel more than comfortable in picking) choice that'll beat out the critics favs (Penn or Rourke or Langella) and the popular choice (LEO!). And my beloved Viggo won't even be in this lineup this year, which I'm still fuming over.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8256060.post-27270754055184707232008-10-27T13:29:00.000-04:002008-10-27T13:29:00.000-04:00Gran Torino looks like a recycled The Brave One, b...Gran Torino looks like a recycled The Brave One, but with a male lead, Eastwood nonetheless, maybe it can make some shortlists. Although I'm not impressed by the trailer.<BR/><BR/>Not impressed with Hoffman's trailer either. The dude rocks, but this film looks completely ignorable.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8256060.post-76584224667412103012008-10-27T00:26:00.000-04:002008-10-27T00:26:00.000-04:00anon 7:58 (people please make up a name so it's ea...<B>anon 7:58</B> (people please make up a name so it's easier to talk) the Fincher thing was just a momentary loss of faith. If you notice the "previous" history, last month was the only month I didn't have BENJAMIN BUTTON and Fincher predicted. I recovered my faith in the Oscar potential of the movie ;)NATHANIEL Rhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/11597109147678235399noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8256060.post-64790321135623540122008-10-26T23:28:00.000-04:002008-10-26T23:28:00.000-04:00I sort of imagine Christopher Nolan as the front-r...I sort of imagine Christopher Nolan as the front-runner for Directing at this point, though sight unseen, Fincher (not really Van Sant) could be a threat.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8256060.post-21829069234341620262008-10-26T21:33:00.000-04:002008-10-26T21:33:00.000-04:00I'm surprised Fincher is your number one... last m...I'm surprised Fincher is your number one... last month's predictions didn't even include Benjamin Button in the best picture top five.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8256060.post-67271118539081943372008-10-26T19:58:00.000-04:002008-10-26T19:58:00.000-04:00Fiennes has also been getting very good write-ups ...Fiennes has also been getting very good write-ups for <I>The Duchess</I> where he is a supporting player so it's like Winslet again but, ya know, far less likely.<BR/><BR/><I>Last Chance Harvey</I> just looks like one of those movies that gets shoehorned into the race every race and people clamour to be the first to predict it and then it debuts and people realise that it's nothing special.Glenn Dunkshttps://www.blogger.com/profile/05424659636310160482noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8256060.post-89240066294649818032008-10-26T19:23:00.000-04:002008-10-26T19:23:00.000-04:001. The Clint Factor negates that.2. preaching to t...1. The Clint Factor negates that.<BR/>2. preaching to the choir.<BR/>3. exactly<BR/>4. i hope you're right. i'd love to see him in play.NATHANIEL Rhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/11597109147678235399noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8256060.post-30703366216581888422008-10-26T19:11:00.000-04:002008-10-26T19:11:00.000-04:001. Gran Torino looks horrible.2. Small Films + D...1. Gran Torino looks horrible.<BR/><BR/>2. Small Films + December = crap idea. Why don't distributors realize this? This is why The Visitor still has a shot (and the fact that a lot of films are being pushed back helps)<BR/><BR/>3. Che? Not gonna happen. Basically, what IFC is doing is releasing it for one week (qualifier) AND then splitting it into two films in the new year. So, if they send out DVD screeners (no guarantee), they're relying on voters to sit down and watch a four and a half hour structuralist epic. And then they're relying on them to LIKE IT. Soderbergh's a longshot directorial candidate if only because I think he's got admirers who are really impressed that he's got the creativity to try anything and the clout to get funding.<BR/><BR/>4. I think we're underrating Hugh Jackman's chances. Yes, romantic leads don't always get the nomination (see Ewan McGregor and Leonardo Dicpario). But they do sometimes (Ralph Fiennes, Jude Law) and I think if Australia makes a strong showing (and I don't mean overwhelming, I mean strong - 6-8 nods), he's in. He's a respected star who knows how to work a crowd (so he'll be excellent on the campaign circuit). Frankly, I think I'd rate him higher than Brad Pitt or Clint Eastwood.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8256060.post-71560194306092591672008-10-26T18:50:00.000-04:002008-10-26T18:50:00.000-04:00Supporting Actor:Jeffrey Wright - Cadillac Records...Supporting Actor:<BR/>Jeffrey Wright - Cadillac Records<BR/>[first to predict nom].<BR/><BR/>GG Comedy:<BR/>we shouldn't leave out Brad Pitt & George Clooney (if the year is weak, and it is in this category, they'll remember Leatherheads)Alex Constantinhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/09940311552608814201noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8256060.post-81815143272608316822008-10-26T18:45:00.000-04:002008-10-26T18:45:00.000-04:00About "The Reader" and the "they're both supportin...About "The Reader" and the "they're both supporting" thing: Dont be surprised if Harvey put the kid who plays the young Ralph Fiennes as lead and both top billing stars as supporting. I know, its ridiculous, but its Harvey...Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8256060.post-64332766391643527582008-10-26T18:13:00.000-04:002008-10-26T18:13:00.000-04:00It'll be funny to see Philip Seymour Hoffman nomin...It'll be funny to see Philip Seymour Hoffman nominated as Best Comedy Actor for a movie in which he cries ALL THE TIME.Pivohttps://www.blogger.com/profile/11719346296085121038noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8256060.post-66254530321584736912008-10-26T18:08:00.000-04:002008-10-26T18:08:00.000-04:00anon and various peoples --i suspect a lot of rele...<B>anon and various peoples</B> --<BR/><BR/>i suspect a lot of release date stuff will clear up soon. I've noticed on IMDB that they rarely change the release dates even when the plan for the film changes so basically everything says 'December'. And some movies even say December when they have no distributor... as if it's a goal rather than a schedule.<BR/><BR/>as for Fassbender... even if that new December release pans out (just a week or two ago it was spring 2009) he's not going to get any Oscar play. the film is way too harsh for AMPAS and it's not a typically baity performance. Furthermore I'm not sure why IFC thinks it should schedule multiple releases for December --if you're previously unsuccessful at getting nominations what's with the shotgun multiple film December approach rather than a careful release / plan / strategy?] <BR/><BR/><B>as for GG COMEDY</B> it all depends on how they categorize things. some possibilities...<BR/><BR/>(seems likely if they're so categorized)<BR/>HOFFMAN -Synecdoche<BR/>BROLIN - W.<BR/>DOWNEY JR -iron man<BR/>HOFFMAN -last chance harvey<BR/><BR/>(and there's always...)<BR/>ROCKWELL -choke<BR/>SMITH -hancock<BR/>STILLER -tropic thunder<BR/>CARELL -get smart<BR/>FRANCO/ROGEN -pineapple express<BR/>CERA -nick and norah's...<BR/>BARDEM -vicky christinaNATHANIEL Rhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/11597109147678235399noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8256060.post-89030210482023013292008-10-26T17:23:00.000-04:002008-10-26T17:23:00.000-04:00Speaking of Brolin, Nathaniel, don't you see him a...Speaking of Brolin, Nathaniel, don't you see him as the frontrunner of GG comedy/musical race, deserving at least the Top10 at the Oscars? ["W." a comedy??? Yeah, just like "Charlie Wilson's war".] By the way, this is soooo far the weakest sub-category of the year: J.Brolin+D.Hoffman+....+....+....??? Maybe Downey Jr. for "Iron man"?Pivohttps://www.blogger.com/profile/11719346296085121038noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8256060.post-46606567489400113382008-10-26T16:55:00.000-04:002008-10-26T16:55:00.000-04:00I agree that it sounds ridiculous but it is actual...I agree that it sounds ridiculous but it is actually much more accurate than most category tampering that we see. Fiennes is probably only in 1/3 of the movie. His scenes (where the actual reading comes in) are probably the most emotionally affecting, but they make up a very small portion of the run time. The book centers around his character at three different stages in his life, and I believe the younger actor is used for the first two, when the crux of the narrative happens.<BR/><BR/>Winslet is much closer to a lead than he is, but has the obvious complicating factors. Anyway, this is certainly not as bad as Dev Patel for Slumdog Millionaire or Casey Affleck last year. Maybe they can campaign the kid as lead actor...<BR/><BR/>I do believe you are right about Philip Seymour Hoffman though. Mostly I want more people to pay attention to Benicio del Toro's immense performance in Che. The Cannes prize has to count for something, no?rosengjehttps://www.blogger.com/profile/06346399198525494946noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8256060.post-24196483651961726522008-10-26T16:44:00.000-04:002008-10-26T16:44:00.000-04:00I'm agree for most of the predictions (With the ex...I'm agree for most of the predictions (With the exception of Clint Eastwood) but... What about Michael Fassbergen for Hunger? I didn't say he gets an Oscar Nomination per se, but I think he could be in the running. Fantastic performance and should be in consideration, especially for the release date in December 5. Maybe is just ME, but I think Fassbergen has better chances instead Hugh Jackman (I don't know why, but I think he'll be out even if Australia is a hit).<BR/><BR/>Don't count out Dustin Hoffman (VEteran nominee + Likely character + "Comedy" spot + Respect from Hollywood comunity)Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8256060.post-39764015715489997352008-10-26T15:40:00.000-04:002008-10-26T15:40:00.000-04:00true but i bet even the academy would laugh at a n...true but i bet even the academy would laugh at a non-ensemble movie claiming it has no leads.<BR/><BR/>could you imagine AUSTRALIA, for a random example, trying to campaign both Jackman and Kidman as "supporting" --- Hee<BR/><BR/>i mean it's so absurd as to be laughed out of any nominations. So maybe i hope a studio dares go there someday -- perhaps it'd help the academy realize how foolish they are constantly allowing the supporting categories to be corrupted instead of doing what they were created to do: honor character actors and non-lead talent.NATHANIEL Rhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/11597109147678235399noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8256060.post-33686404610473674722008-10-26T15:36:00.000-04:002008-10-26T15:36:00.000-04:00Well, Weinsten as the awards pig he is, will proba...Well, Weinsten as the awards pig he is, will probably want to to campaign them in their most-likely-to-get-nominations category.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8256060.post-87059461451833862322008-10-26T15:34:00.000-04:002008-10-26T15:34:00.000-04:00rosengje --i can't imagine the academy will be int...rosengje --i can't imagine the academy will be into SYNECDOCHE but maybe i'm wrong. I mean I often love cerebral stuff that others might deem "pretentious" and i thought it was a very difficult sit without much by way of audience enjoyment. i can't imagine anyone with middlebrow-leaning taste would enjoy it at all.NATHANIEL Rhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/11597109147678235399noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8256060.post-58395587039214482852008-10-26T15:32:00.000-04:002008-10-26T15:32:00.000-04:00but do you all really think that they would dare c...but do you all really think that they would dare campaign BOTH of their leads as supporting?<BR/><BR/>which is to say it's primarily a story about the relationship between two people (Fiennes and Winslet)... and that would mean a two character epic would be billing itself as a film without any leads (since they're currently intending to push winslet supporting to avoid REV. ROAD)<BR/><BR/>very strange.NATHANIEL Rhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/11597109147678235399noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8256060.post-29450447883150690652008-10-26T15:20:00.000-04:002008-10-26T15:20:00.000-04:00Hate to repeat everyone's sentiments, but I think ...Hate to repeat everyone's sentiments, but I think that both Benicio del Toro and Philip Seymour Hoffman should be elevated in the Best Actor race at the expense of Ralph Fiennes and maybe Dustin Hoffman.<BR/><BR/>I am really excited for Fiennes to once again figure into the Oscar derby, but I think it is much more likely in the supporting actor category. With the good will engendered by his turns in In Bruges and The Duchess, I think The Weinstein Company will eventually make the switch. Having read the script, the case could easily be made that his is the supporting role, and would be a much less obvious case of category fraud than that of his co-star, the lovely Kate Winslet. Anon is correct that it is a Briony scenario, but his character is even more in line with Vanessa Redgrave and Romola Garai's than Saiorse Ronan's.rosengjehttps://www.blogger.com/profile/06346399198525494946noreply@blogger.com