tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8256060.post5100878987299477192..comments2024-03-17T10:11:46.952-04:00Comments on Film Experience Blog: Today's Oscar Puzzle: Supporting Actor 2008NATHANIEL Rhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/11597109147678235399noreply@blogger.comBlogger39125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8256060.post-35264299910260721892008-12-02T03:20:00.000-05:002008-12-02T03:20:00.000-05:00The thing that I think is really interesting in th...The thing that I think is really interesting in this entire Oscar race is the parallels to 2001.<BR/><BR/>1) The "It" couple of the time was Nicole Kidman and Tom Cruise who had just divorced. Everyone was thinking Cruise (for Vanilla Sky) and Kidman (Moulin Rouge! and The Others) could get nominations. One ended up with a bomb and no nominations, while the other got a big nomination and acclaim for both. That is flipped around this year with Brad Pitt and Angelina Jolie.<BR/><BR/>2) Independent film sensations that come out of nowhere take over come awards time. (In the Bedroom/Slumdog Millionaire)<BR/><BR/>3) Everyone has high hopes for a biopic/Ron Howard movie.<BR/><BR/>4) Both years have mega-blockbusters that are trying to break the mold and get a Best Picture nomination.<BR/><BR/>5) Baz Luhrmann is involved<BR/><BR/>6) Sean Penn, Marisa Tomei and Kate Winslet are all competing for acting prizes.<BR/><BR/>7) French movies are getting huge buzz like few French movies do<BR/><BR/>There might be some more stuff, but those were just off the top of my head.Nebhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/04400273356388638757noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8256060.post-48565946951946794532008-12-01T10:51:00.000-05:002008-12-01T10:51:00.000-05:001. Neither. I think that both Pitt and Downey Jr....1. Neither. I think that both Pitt and Downey Jr. will come off as too lightweight in a category like this one with all the drama contenders.<BR/><BR/>2. Nothing for Brandon Walters except some breakthrough citations maybe and the Critic's Choice award for Young Male Actor.<BR/><BR/>3. I don't think "Milk" will manage all three nods for Brolin, Franco, and Hirsch. Brolin first b/c of the combo of "W" and "Milk" this year plus "No Country for Old Men", "Elah", and the Tarentino ones. It's his "time." Then Emile Hirsch, but voters might not dig him after snubbing him for "Into the Wild", and he had that "Speed Racer" flop this year. Then James Franco last. He's inching toward a nod eventually, and "Pineapple Express" gave him some good exposure along wth the "Spider-Man" films. 1 nod for Brolin.<BR/><BR/>4. Yes for Bill Irwin! Veteran vote in full effect. I don't see him as a longshot at all but always in my final five.<BR/><BR/>5. Yeah, the critics will "validate" Heath Ledger's road to Oscar. I see him sweeping NYFCC/LAFCA/NSFC, Globes, SAG, BAFTA, and then Oscar. I don't think there's a strong enough or popular enough candidate around to topple him, and even critics won't be immune to this story.<BR/><BR/>6. They'll go along with the studio campaigns like they almost always do. They'll love to nominate PSH in supporting for "Doubt", and I've thought that Kate's getting double nods for months now, so no need to stop thinking that now.<BR/><BR/>7. Dev Patel has a solid shot in supporting. If they love "Slumdog Millionaire", the "Milk" guys disappoint, and Michael Sheen isn't campaigned in supporting, they'll have to nominate somebody. Why not someone new and foreign?<BR/><BR/>That was fun! More please!Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8256060.post-24209868115825949402008-12-01T06:10:00.000-05:002008-12-01T06:10:00.000-05:001) Robert Downey jr...Robert Downey jr...Robert Do...1) Robert Downey jr...Robert Downey jr...Robert Downey jr...it's time for a second nomination! and what a better occasion than rewarding him in the year of his greatest success (IRON MAN...a cool prof per se...but I think we must wait Saturn Awards or Mtv movie awards for this one...)?<BR/><BR/>2) can't say about Walker...the category seems very crowded<BR/><BR/>3) three contenders seem too much...but two is still possible: the Academy could reward Brolin for these awesome two years (in this case overlooking him in W. without problems) and Franco for his star-turn (sort of) as the long suffering companion...<BR/><BR/>4) at this point even Hathaway is not a lock...<BR/><BR/>5) I think Ledger's perf is going to be very awarded...and rightly so IMHO...<BR/><BR/>6) Academy is quite polite with Fraud Category: sometimes they are punished (Watts, Johansson...), sometimes they are accepted (Hutton, Hudson, Blanchett...), and sometimes Academy does the right thing (Keisha Castle-Hughes campaigned as supporting but nominated as leading)...Father Flynn will stay among the supporters, but I'm confident THE READER will have some leading...<BR/><BR/>7) Whatever you can think about Patel's perf...he's the leading man in Slumdog...no doubt about it!!!<BR/><BR/>mirkoAnonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8256060.post-81242305377414835272008-12-01T00:46:00.000-05:002008-12-01T00:46:00.000-05:001) I think rdj has a strong chance to get nominate...1) I think rdj has a strong chance to get nominated. pitt was strong, but i think has almost no chance (i would have voted for malkovich over him). i think downey's performance was by far one of the best of the year. that said, it would be an extraordinary recognition for such an offensive film.<BR/>2)nope. havent seen it, but HIGHLY doubt it.<BR/>3) i think brolin is a solid bet, but the other two are unlikely. havent seen this either, but dont think the others will make it.<BR/>4)i think he is a possibility, but definitely not very likely.<BR/>5)i echo what others said, i could see shannon, brolin, and other possibilities scoring some.<BR/>6)i think they will for the most part<BR/>7)i completely agree with you. nothing superior, by no means a stunning breakthrough, and this seems like category fraud that does not need to be recognized anyways (as hoffman may)<BR/><BR/>to pick five in order:<BR/><BR/>heath ledger<BR/>michael shannon<BR/>phillip seymor hoffman<BR/>josh brolin<BR/>robert downey jr.<BR/><BR/>i think the last one or two , maybe maybe three are in danger of getting replaced. the people i see coming to fill those spots, in order, are.<BR/><BR/>ralph fiennes (the reader)<BR/>james franco<BR/>liev schreiber <BR/>bill irwin<BR/>dev patel<BR/><BR/>ps. i really hope that eddie marson reenters this race. hopefully he wins some precursors because i think he is very deserving but underbuzzed right now.<BR/>-frankAnonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8256060.post-8094573764457127432008-12-01T00:45:00.000-05:002008-12-01T00:45:00.000-05:00Sean D I agree, John Malkovich was the best thing...Sean D I agree, John Malkovich was the best thing in Burn, and one of his funniest best roles. I'll be surprised if he is over looked. At least in the comedy section of the golden globes.<BR/><BR/>Brolin and Franco and Hirsch, OH my. all three of them deserve nominations for this. Although Hirsch did a great job, it's probably more likely to see Brolin or Franco get this spot.Chris Na Tarajahttps://www.blogger.com/profile/06545312034833563234noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8256060.post-39958704588940667242008-12-01T00:15:00.000-05:002008-12-01T00:15:00.000-05:00I think Emile Hirsch is this year's Romola Garai. ...I think Emile Hirsch is this year's Romola Garai. Many people seem to think he's the best thing about Milk, but for some reason, the traction doesn't seem to be there. (That logic would indicate that James Franco is this year's Vanessa Redgrave. Odd analogy.)<BR/>As for Bill Irwin, I think he has a shot if the awards bodies unite behind him, but they'll probably choose Michael Shannon. Last year they solidified the Casey Affleck nomination when Javier Bardem was the clear Oscar favorite and I think they'll push someone other than Heath Ledger. They don't owe him the way the Academy does as many of them awarded him for Brokeback.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8256060.post-29592893939508700372008-11-30T21:39:00.000-05:002008-11-30T21:39:00.000-05:00nick -- good point about the amorphous = anything ...nick -- good point about the amorphous = anything goes. But I suspect that the critics will all want to hop on the Heath bandwagon. Just so's they can say they did, you know?NATHANIEL Rhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/11597109147678235399noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8256060.post-42707400314201155332008-11-30T21:30:00.000-05:002008-11-30T21:30:00.000-05:00I wasn't impressed with Brolin or Franco in Milk, ...I wasn't impressed with Brolin or Franco in Milk, although I thought Franco actually fared better. Hirsch gave a touching, stirring, and funny performance and played off Penn masterfully. God I wish he would get nominated over Seymour Hoffman.Billy Dhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/15773336429810369206noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8256060.post-78731855444815565962008-11-30T21:08:00.000-05:002008-11-30T21:08:00.000-05:00Re: Milk--I think only Brolin will get a supportin...Re: Milk--I think only Brolin will get a supporting actor nomination. Franco and Hirsch, both fine, just don't have showy enough roles or one big scene.<BR/><BR/>I think the kid in Australia deserves to be nominated but he will probably be overlooked.gabrieloakhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/00460263240309976652noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8256060.post-30702895663342123822008-11-30T20:46:00.000-05:002008-11-30T20:46:00.000-05:00It was a different time, but: George Sanders in Al...It was a different time, but: George Sanders in <I>All About Eve</I>?<BR/><BR/>It was a quadrangled film, but it tilted toward the women: Jim Broadbent in <I>Iris</I>?<BR/><BR/>In a category this amorphous, critics awards could really matter. If Irwin wins even one, stuff could move around. There's no way that so many people on this board are into the performance and no one in AMPAS is even noticing, or is positively <I>immune</I> to noticing if traction starts to build. Viz. Marcia Gay Harden, Amy Ryan, William Hurt, etc.NicksFlickPickshttps://www.blogger.com/profile/04607501848596529493noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8256060.post-65773683900505789352008-11-30T20:22:00.000-05:002008-11-30T20:22:00.000-05:00it's interesting to me that people disagree so muc...it's interesting to me that people disagree so much on MILK's supporting players ~ which is why i wonder if we'll get two.<BR/><BR/>but on the IRWIN thing... i do agree that being the man in a women's films doesn't have the same awards pull as being the "girl" in the man's film. Not sure why that is but I think it is. sadly.NATHANIEL Rhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/11597109147678235399noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8256060.post-63973922529735177262008-11-30T19:19:00.000-05:002008-11-30T19:19:00.000-05:00Yeah, I don't think Basinger really drives LA Conf...Yeah, I don't think Basinger really drives LA Confidential on the level as Spacey, Crowe and Pearce. Maybe on the same level as Cromwell and DeVito.<BR/><BR/> My point was more that the only female/male presence in a predominantly male/female film can actually be boosted because of it - they're more like to stand out. It doesn't always work, as Connie Nielsen, Kelly MacDonald, Maria Bello etc, but I don't think we can rule Irwin out specifically because it's predominantly a women's film.<BR/><BR/> But again, I think he's my favourite supporting actor of the year.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8256060.post-40788648691891122132008-11-30T18:59:00.000-05:002008-11-30T18:59:00.000-05:001) downey or pitt? neither 2) walters - no3) broli...1) downey or pitt? neither <BR/>2) walters - no<BR/>3) brolin - yes, franco - yes if he picks up some critics prizes for both 'milk' and 'the pineapple express' <BR/>4) irwin - wishful thinking (but possibly nyfcc award)<BR/>5) televised awards go to heath, press to a wide range of others<BR/>6) category fraud is an established ploy nowadays<BR/>7) dev - nopar3182https://www.blogger.com/profile/03647653154201086767noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8256060.post-53150156413993502342008-11-30T18:52:00.000-05:002008-11-30T18:52:00.000-05:001) I think neither of them will make it, but if I ...1) I think neither of them will make it, but if I had to choose, I'd pick Pitt. I found Tropic Thunder quite deceiving (= not laughing) on the whole. And Pitt was a nice surprise in BAR.<BR/><BR/>6) Categories fraud. This is the first time I watch the awards season from the very beginning and I'm about to quit ;) How can they be so restrictive with other categories such as Foreign Language Film, Score, etc and so lax in supporting/lead actors categories? Ah, most voters are actors... oh, well.<BR/><BR/>As for the rest of the assignment, as an overseas reader that will see most of these movies some time in (probably) 2009, I think I got the perfect excuse not to fulfill it.<BR/><BR/>IggyAnonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8256060.post-59536081319429961612008-11-30T18:44:00.000-05:002008-11-30T18:44:00.000-05:00This comment has been removed by the author.par3182https://www.blogger.com/profile/03647653154201086767noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8256060.post-73016304275435906722008-11-30T18:39:00.000-05:002008-11-30T18:39:00.000-05:00"Being a Man's film didn't hurt Kim Basinger for w..."Being a Man's film didn't hurt Kim Basinger for winning for LA Confidential."<BR/><BR/>But Arkaan, If I remember, Kim's character drives part of the story and she's one of the four "co-leads" (With Russell Crowe, Guy Pearce and Kevin Spacey). <BR/><BR/>I saw the film and Bill Irwin is fantastic in Rachel getting Married, but I'm sorry, the story is about Kim (Anne Hathaway) and Rachel (Rosemarie DeWitt) not about Paul (Bill Irwin). His character is in second degree instead hathaway and DeWittAnonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8256060.post-54754134288793361032008-11-30T18:10:00.000-05:002008-11-30T18:10:00.000-05:001) None, although Downey Jr. may get Globe and SAG...1) None, although Downey Jr. may get Globe and SAG nominations, I think Oscar won't follow. <BR/><BR/>2) I don't tink he'll get any attention.<BR/><BR/>3) I think 'Milk' will do two (most probably Brolin and Franco). Three us just too much.<BR/><BR/>4) Wishful thinking<BR/><BR/>5) I think they will all go for Heath. (I would). <BR/><BR/>6) I think Philip Seymour Hoffman will go away with it. The Reader having no lead seems like a big issue to me. Don't know what to say about that. <BR/><BR/>7) I don't really know. Haven't watch the film yet.Cohttps://www.blogger.com/profile/00513460213305003463noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8256060.post-31125164972026325152008-11-30T18:06:00.000-05:002008-11-30T18:06:00.000-05:00Being a Man's film didn't hurt Kim Basinger for wi...Being a Man's film didn't hurt Kim Basinger for winning for LA Confidential.<BR/><BR/> That said, hearing a majority of the people say wishful thinking makes me wonder if I rationalized my wishful thinking, but I really do think he's a solid contender.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8256060.post-47409950859413367342008-11-30T17:41:00.000-05:002008-11-30T17:41:00.000-05:00The Supporting Actor race is certainly the most pu...The Supporting Actor race is certainly the most puzzling and vague <BR/><BR/>1) No for both of those candidates. Pitt's lack of screen time and overall lightweight performance won't give him any awards traction (By the way, did anyone else think John Malkovich was the best one in that film? I'd probably nominate him for Supporting Actor for the sheer hilarity of his performance). Downey Jr. is a little more likely, but the film dosen't seem likely to get attention. <BR/><BR/>2) No. Because of the reviews, I think the film won't make any impact on the major 8 categories. <BR/><BR/>3) I think Brolin will get in, because of his surely affecting performance (I have yet to see the film, but reviews of Brolin seem positive), as well as No Country goodwill, and possibly W. goodwill, if anyone was impressed with his performance. I wouldn't be surprised to see Franco get in, but I don't think the film will have enough power to get 3 acting nominations in one category. <BR/><BR/>4) Sadly, it probably is just wishful thinking, unless critics organizations love the film and give him an award or two. Then he could become a contender <BR/><BR/>5) I think critics might spread the wealth around, but the majority will probably go to Heath. <BR/><BR/>6) Category Fraud will be honored, as it always has been. <BR/><BR/>7) Patel's in my top 5 currently. I think love for Slumdog Millionaire could be a stable force that breaks through this vague, uncertain category.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8256060.post-54759750098992852092008-11-30T17:28:00.000-05:002008-11-30T17:28:00.000-05:001. While I enjoyed Brad Pitt's "BAR" perf. more th...1. While I enjoyed Brad Pitt's "BAR" perf. more than any of his recent work, it ain't no Oscar material. Downey Jr., on the other hand, was killer -- I'd love to see him get in.<BR/>2. For me, Brandon Walters went from being cute to a redundant ploy for aw-shucks audience admiration. If one kid should get in, I'd give the edge to Asa Butterfield in "The Boy in the Striped Pajamas."<BR/>3. I'm hoping Brolin gets the spot. He's been making such prestigious choices lately -- in two years, he's built a resume that most actors pursue their entire careers. He was great in "Milk" and he deserves it.<BR/>4. I enjoyed Bill Irwin, but he surely wasn't the standout. I'd guess he'll have to settle for some ensemble trophies.<BR/>5. I say they all pile on the accolades with perhaps the occasional exception...and more power to 'em. Is there, or will there be, a supporting male this year that even comes close to what he achieved? Doubtful.<BR/>6. I don't really know how to answer this, but I will say that I sure do hope they push Kate for supporting in "The Reader" (if they haven't already). More than anything this year, I want to see Winslet up for two awards...and winning one of them.<BR/>7. I think he's got a good shot -- the film's SO easy to love. While I agree with your 'adequacy' comment, I was rather impressed with his focus and naturalism -- not bad for a relative newcomer. But on the subject of category fraud, despite the large flashback chunk, is this not a leading role?Kurtis Ohttps://www.blogger.com/profile/07946031309738374597noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8256060.post-11532734030617777012008-11-30T17:09:00.000-05:002008-11-30T17:09:00.000-05:00my top 5ledgerfrancoshannondowney jnrhoffmanmy top 5<BR/><BR/>ledger<BR/>franco<BR/>shannon<BR/>downey jnr<BR/>hoffmanAnonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8256060.post-72661063245236624092008-11-30T17:03:00.000-05:002008-11-30T17:03:00.000-05:00I'm not down for RDJ or Pitt.BUt, I do think the c...I'm not down for RDJ or Pitt.<BR/>BUt, I do think the category is weak...so, anything is possible.<BR/><BR/>My picks are <BR/>Shannon<BR/>Franco<BR/>Jamie Bell<BR/>Heath Ledger<BR/>and Hoffman<BR/><BR/>I know Jamie Bell is a long shot, and I would also like to wishful think Bill Irwin into this category, because he was brilliant.<BR/><BR/>HIrsch, I think, is a bit of an ass, and hasn't really showed me he deserves an Oscar nom yet. Bell, on the other hand, was snubbed for Billy Elliot, and has consistently been great...so, one of these days, I want to see him getting a nom. Plus, he's a great kid and well liked.<BR/><BR/>If there are two noms for Milk, Brolin is the other one. <BR/><BR/>I'm sticking with these for at least until I see DEFIANCE.Sally Bellehttps://www.blogger.com/profile/00522865527270681536noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8256060.post-24249941533533963972008-11-30T16:49:00.000-05:002008-11-30T16:49:00.000-05:001. Neither. I don't think there's room this year. ...1. Neither. I don't think there's room this year. But if one sneaks in it'll be Downey because of Iron Man.<BR/><BR/>2.Haven't seen Australia, but there does not seem to be any love out there for the movie. So no dice.<BR/><BR/>3. Probably only Brolin will get nominated. He was great. However for me Franco was the performance that grounded the movie. More because of his warmth and beauty though.<BR/><BR/>4. I hope Bill Irwin gets a nomination. Loved his and Winger's characters more than the leads.<BR/><BR/>5.Def a lock, strong possibility for a win.<BR/><BR/>7. You are right, the performances in this movie are the weakest link. A la full monty, maybe best pic but no actors love.Murtadahttps://www.blogger.com/profile/13708403648510141998noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8256060.post-57750338246602118982008-11-30T16:17:00.000-05:002008-11-30T16:17:00.000-05:00Sorry my lineup:1. Heath Ledger: LOCK2. Michael Sh...Sorry my lineup:<BR/><BR/>1. Heath Ledger: LOCK<BR/>2. Michael Shannon: LOCK<BR/>3. Josh Brolin: SOLID BET<BR/>4. James Franco: SOLID BET<BR/>5. Phillip Seymour Hoffman: LIKELY<BR/><BR/>-----------------<BR/><BR/>6. Dev Patel: LIKELY<BR/>7. Emile Hirsch: LIKELY<BR/><BR/>(The fifth spot is between Hoffman, Patel and Hirsch)<BR/><BR/>8. Liev Schreiber: LONG SHOT<BR/>9. Robert Downey Jr.: LONG SHOT<BR/>10. Brad Pitt: LONG SHOTAnonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8256060.post-25616314439713793782008-11-30T16:13:00.000-05:002008-11-30T16:13:00.000-05:001) I don't think so, maybe a few considerations. D...1) I don't think so, maybe a few considerations. Downey jr. nominated at BFCA and Pitt at GG: That's all<BR/><BR/>2) Australia is now walking the line... if Revolutionary Road and The Curious Case of B.B. gets good reviews, Australia is out and like johnny said, if they didn't nominated Freddy highmore for "Finding Neverland", when that was a BP nominee and he was a SAG Nominee... Plus: Next year's Koby Smit-McPhee.<BR/><BR/>3) Interesting point, two spots are very posible but three is not crazyness after all, if Milk is BELOVED at AMPAS. Brolin and Franco are in the top five but Hirsch is close enough for: Into the Wild love + Young American star + Best Picture Lineup<BR/><BR/>4) Maybe a few nomination and reference at SAGs, but Bill Irwin is out, RGM is a women's film<BR/><BR/>5) Without a doubt Ledger is a LOCK for nomination and strong posibilities for winnng, maybe one of Milk's guys and especially Michael Shannon could fight hardly, but Ledger will win GG, SAG, BFCA, NBR and NYFCC/LAFCA (He won NYFCC in 2005, but not both)<BR/><BR/>6) Maybe is me but I think Philip Seymour Hoffman is not a LOCK after all. He could be snubbed in benefict for another actor... Maybe another time Ralph Fiennes.<BR/><BR/>7) If the British vote at AMPAS is important, maybe Patel could get an Oscar nomination esecially if Slumdog millionaire is a Fox hit...Anonymousnoreply@blogger.com