I've noticed that many people are still calling Cate Blanchett the frontrunner for Best Supporting Actress for her "Katharine Hepburn" in The Aviator. And I'm wondering why.
She didn't win the NBR. Didn't win the Globe. Didn't win the BFCA. She lost the three major critics awards (NYFCC, LAFCA, and NSFC). Yet, people still proclaim her the frontrunner. Hmmmm. Conspiracy of wishful thinking or good common predictive sense about her connection to a majorly nominated film and the film's no-chance status in the other acting races?
Wednesday, February 02, 2005
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After seeing every major film this year, I'd say she deserves it. After all, if Marisa Tomei can come out of nowhere with her "My Cousin Vinny" win, why can't Cate? At least Blanchett won a couple of awards, and is well-liked by everyone. I'm not sure who the frontrunner is in this category right now (a couple of them have already won big prizes), but if she wins the SAG award (:crosses fingers:) then I'll consider her the frontrunner.
I'm thinking, Nathaniel, that it's three parts "good common predictive sense" and one part "wishful thinking" thrown in for good measure. I still think she's the best bet, but it is certainly odd that both Supporting Actor and Supporting Actress have supposed frontrunners (Blanchett and Freeman) who really don't have any major precursors to speak of.
-- Joe
Others have come overcome similar obstacles to win oscars in their years... like Marisa Tomei, Russell Crowe, Halle Berry, etc. And it helps a lot that Blanchett is due and plays a legend, and is in the Aviator. My thinking: if the Aviator DOES win best picture, Blanchett will probably win. If if DOESN'T win, she'll still probably win because it kinda needs to win in a top category. Kind of like Catherine Zeta-Jones and Chicago. Also, though she didn't win major critics awards, she was the official runnerup in several races. Also, I would call her the odds-on favorite for the SAG, where Portman is not nominated and Madsen's film is smaller than Cate's. Linney is dead in the water. Okonedo won't win. Leachman, I suppose, could win on sentiment for being an old past oscar winner who never had the chance to win a SAG before. But not really. She's playing Katharine Hepburn, in the highest grossing film of the bunch. And SAG owes her for screwing her over for Gwyneth last time. Once she wins SAG, she'll be the clear frontrunner. I don't think it's wishful thinking.
Others have come overcome similar obstacles to win oscars in their years... like Marisa Tomei, Russell Crowe, Halle Berry, etc. And it helps a lot that Blanchett is due and plays a legend, and is in the Aviator. My thinking: if the Aviator DOES win best picture, Blanchett will probably win. If if DOESN'T win, she'll still probably win because it kinda needs to win in a top category. Kind of like Catherine Zeta-Jones and Chicago. Also, though she didn't win major critics awards, she was the official runnerup in several races. Also, I would call her the odds-on favorite for the SAG, where Portman is not nominated and Madsen's film is smaller than Cate's. Linney is dead in the water. Okonedo won't win. Leachman, I suppose, could win on sentiment for being an old past oscar winner who never had the chance to win a SAG before. But not really. She's playing Katharine Hepburn, in the highest grossing film of the bunch. And SAG owes her for screwing her over for Gwyneth last time. Once she wins SAG, she'll be the clear frontrunner. I don't think it's wishful thinking.
Slightly off-topic re: Blanchett... her Elizabeth was one of my least favorite of her performances, and I'm not sure that she was incredibly better (or better at all) than Paltrow was that year. Either way, they would have been my 4th and 5th picks out of that admittedly sub-par roster. Am I alone? Compared to the lunacy that overtook Best Actor (at the win level) and Best Supporting Actress (at the nomination level) in '98, the alleged Blanchett/Paltrow snub has never been that persuasive to me....
I'm kind of with Nick here on the Paltrow / Blanchett thing. I did think Blanchett was better but she wasn't my favorite of the year. My preferences were the totally ignored Holly Hunter for Living Out Loud and the only marginally rewarded Ally Sheedy for High Art, both of whom I thought gave interesting, inspired, and unpredictable performances in non-Baity roles.
But given the consistency of Blanchett's work --I count only one bad performance "The Shipping News" and one mediocre one "Bandits" in her already lengthy filmography-- I think she's well past due for some sort of Oscar recognition. So, I'm pleased she finally managed a second nomination.
Oh, don't hold Shipping News against Blanchett... I'm sure she was only doing what Hallstrom wanted. The main thing that annoys me about Paltrow winning (even though I was rooting for Shakespeare to beat Ryan, in my first major oscarwatching experience) is that it was so clearly another example of a flitty hollywood princess in a love interest role, with the less challenging or impressive performance, beating out the quintessential Strong, Independent Woman (Elizabeth I). Even if Blanchett wasn't the true best of the year. Plus Blanchett has in the years since proven herself a more consistent and versatile talent than Paltrow.
1999's Oscars frustrate me because my favourite film of that year was Pleasantville and they didn't even nominate Joan Allen, which I found kind of odd considering she had done very outside of that. But, Cate's was my favourite female perf that year, although Shakespear In Love was the better film.
And, whoa, I think I officially lost some respect for Nathaniel when saying Cate's Bandits perf was mediocre. I sorta think it's one of her best... don't ask me why. But it is.
(only kidding about the respect thing...i lost all of that for you a LONG time ago. cheers!)
But on a serious note, I think the reason Cate is the frontrunner is, along with all the other reasons, she's playing Katherine Hepburn! No E!/ET/Anything STARTING with an E, it sounds like a perfect fit. Current Hollywood Royalty playing previous Hollywood Royalty in a film about Hollywood Royalty being directed by Hollywood Royalty... and Katherine died sorta recently! If Jamie FOxx is getting Ray Charles death votes then wont Cate get some too?!
Plus, she's almost always the best dressed on the night!
-Glenn
It's basically just a case of frontrunner-because-she's-due syndrome. I think if Winslet had managed the double for Neverland she'd be be the recipient of the same buzz right about now in that category.
Although Blanchett's Elizabeth performance was, to my mind, better than Paltrow's work that year, I always thought Fernanda Montenegro was the standout in that category. (And it's also worth checking out Kathy Burke's performance in Nil By Mouth, which I'd rate as worthy runner up.)
Back to this year though, I still think Supporting Actress is Madsen's to lose.
Rob
Um. I never said Blanchett was mediocre in Elizabeth. I just don't think it was the "best" performance of that year. I would be happy to see her win this year but I have trouble envisioning her as the frontrunner due to her lack of wins in the pre-season is all. I think at least 3 of the nominees have a real shot on Oscar night in this category.
Sophie Okonedo's very firmly in the Happy To Be Nominated Category, Natalie Portman's young and still has the Star Wars beast tailing her, Laura Linney's movie is being very neglected, and not many people had both heard of Virginia Madsen and remembered her existence before Sideways came along. All the last three may be able to overcome these obstacles, but Cate has none to overcome. Strong movie, strong reputation.
I said you called her Bandit's performance Mediocre, not Elizabeth.
But I was joking about the losing respect for you part. I just happen to really like Cate in Bandits (and the movie as a whole, colour me surprised)
It's sort of strange to realise that Cate Blanchett and Laura Linney are only on their second nominations. AND SO IS HILARY SWANK. egads, the world IS going mad.
-Glenn
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