...make our break desired revivals for Cinderella Man, Joan Allen's Upside bid, and the debut of the Weinstein Co....ignite or douse the sudden contention of Pride & Prejudice.
...cement Crash as a big 8 contender.
...confirm December's stranglehold on the Oscar imagination or open the races up with whole-year acknowledgements for Capote, A History of Violence, and The Constant Gardener, among others.
...show just how deep their Renée Zellweger fanaticism runs. If she can manage another undeserved nod this year she ties Streep and Pfeiffer for most consecutive Globe noms (6). How scarily devoted are they? We'll find out in one month.
Things the Globes don't have the power to tell us this year:
...anything about Oscar's possible affection for Match Point, Oscar's reaction to Woody is a hard to predict and obviously unique relationship/thang.
...what to think of the Best Original Score race. Oscar's club in that regard is notoriously hermetic and ungiving, no matter the quality of various scores in any given year that seek entrance.
...whether or not Geisha and Munich are the two frontrunners to win as people are speculating.. They're the type of prestige dramas that can get major Globe attention even if they're disappointing otherwise (on name and timing alone), and because the field is wider at the Globes.
The truth is this: If the field of contenders is largely even the precursors have even greater power than usual to influence Oscar. And I agree with Poland's contention that the Best Picture shortlist race is fairly wide open and will possibly remain so. Although I must say I disagree enthusiastically on some of the individual takes --like claiming Munich deconstructs an entire genre, a claim he made without having seen the film. Ah well, faith is rarely rational. Which would explain why I'm so sure that Brokeback Mountain will place without having yet seen it and in spite of the Academy's lily-livered persona when it comes to controversial stuff.
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11 comments:
I seriously question David Poland's judgment. I actually don't think I much like him anymore, if I ever did. This guy thought Charlie and the Chocolate Factory was a brilliant film, and that Depp was oscar-worthy in it.
Um, OK. If you say so.
And now he's touting Munich and Geisha as frontrunners, and leaving Brokeback Mountain out of the mix entirely. I don't get that. That lineup is WAY too conventional... and without enough though behind it. I honestly think Brokeback will be the film to beat, though it may be beat by Munich. All awards season, no one will be able to stop talking about it. It is subtlely political but not overtly political (it is a LOVE STORY) like all the winners he mentioned. And it is deeply American and not a bit international. And has already been embraced by everyone who's seen it.
I agree with Nathaniel that Geisha will probably miss, and I think it will be Brokeback, Munich and Walk the Line fighting for votes, with possibly something else thrown in with a big fanbase.
I also am miffed that he's all "deconstruction of the thriller genre" before seeing it, but then I am already calling Brokeback a deconstruction of the western and the classic romance, so whatever. But at least people have SEEN that.
Bennett Miller ahead of Ang Lee!? You have to be kidding me.
And The Producers screenplay beating Brokeback's to a nod. That's ridiculous.
Poland's been confusing his opinion of the film with general reaction for some time. That said, I do think Brokeback Mountain will have a harder time of making it than we'd like to think.
I don't think it'll have trouble getting nominations, but a best pic win is probably less likely than I'm making it out to be. I just have a feeling, though. I know it will be a big deal.
If the NBR doesn't go for it, though, it could be in trouble.
"Brokeback Mountain" has a classical structure and it's a beautiful Ang Lee's work. It's a universal film. I think the Academy can, easily, fall in love with it. I guess macho directors like John Ford or Clint Eastwood wouldn't do anything much different with this material.
I know! I had issued with his Oscar charts and mentioned it on his blog. Some of those calls are rediculous. Capote for BP and Director? I mean, WHAT? That was a headscratcher. And ahead of Ang Lee and co was very strange. I still say Ang has a better shot that the movie, but I am gradually thinking the movie will indeed be nommed (I am predicting it but it's a shaky decision).
His comments about Munich were, quite literally, flabbergasting. I can sort of understand the "it'll win Best Picture" thing he's doing despite his bad track record on that sort of thing (Phantom of the Opera) but yeah that whole deconstruction of the genre is bizarre!
But, still, the thing that puzzled me most was his comment that appears next to Keira Knightley on the actress page. He has her placed #9 with this little ditty beside:
"Proud to have a Globe nod, Academy often prejudiced against mediocre movies"
:0
WHAT. THE. F...
Again, he's making comments on movies he hasn't seen. Or, I'm assuming he hasn't seen it. Or even read any reviews for it. He should check out Rotton Tomatoes.
-Glenn
Yeah, I cannot take him seriously.
The funny thing is, he's actually wrong, too, the academy is not prejudiced against mediocre movies at all (Gladiator, A Beautiful Mind, Gangs of NY, Seabiscuit, Ray, Finding Neverland) and especially not in the actress category (Monster and Something's Gotta Give spring immediately to mind). Not that P&P in mediocre... but David Poland's predicting skills sure are.
i know! That was going through my mind. P&P isn't mediocre AND the Academy isn't prejudices gainst mediocre movies. Monster's Ball and A Beautiful Mind are the ones that spring immediately to my mind when I think of mediocre big-time oscar winners.
-Glenn
I thought Monster's Ball was pretty decent, but Halle needs to give back that oscar right now so they can refinish it and give it to Nicole Kidman. And then Nicole, if feeling generous, can return her oscar so they can give it to Julianne Moore.
Mr. Rogers,
I really enjoy your analysis on awards' trends. The situation of Original Score at the Oscars puzzles me as well.
Congratulations.
Marcelo.
Very cool design! Useful information. Go on!
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