Ahhh, for the love of BEST ACTRESS, my fav category. Films keep on arriving and failing. My early-bird pet (Joan Allen, beeyotches. Pour her another!) is looking like a stronger bet. Hooray. In one month the NBR kicks this off. Let's hope they go with someone who needs/deserves a jumpstart. The revamp of the Actress page is complete. This isn't the exact lineup... I think I'm but one player off. My crystal ball isn't so cloudy.I might eat it on my continued lack of faith in two possibly major players: Felicity (too fussy. film not liked) & Ziyi (Li and Yeoh stealing her thunder). But you gotta make some tough calls. If you can't, you can't play the pre-precursor Oscar predix game (when it's actually quite hard to play). Read the rest -- now updated with new text and trivia on the dozen leading competitors. More categories soon...
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16 comments:
Glad to see you'e moved Natasha way up... she's on the brink... a Globe drama nomination will seal the deal.
Minor tech hiccup: the word 'Actress' links to the supporting actress page.
Why the total falling out of Julianne Moore? Have you seen Freedomland? Is it that bad?
Also, I think the NBR will seal the deal for Allen.
moved to 2006
Oh damn. It probably sucks then.
Is Savage Grace actually happening still or has it gone the way of the Flora Plum? Julianne really doesn't seem to have many prospects these days...
I'd swap Natasha for Charlize (I see both getting obvious Globe nods, but I can't see her sneaking in for something that is fading fast).
Interesting trivia - no Asian actress has ever been nominated in this category. Whoever's promoting 'Memoirs...' should remind voters or that every chance they get.
I'm prepared to lock in Reese for the win as of....now.
I REALLY don't think Knightley is coming to pass. She just seems like such a "Globes only" possibility. Focus will be busy handling Brokeback and while the role is "classic", it's not exactly "baity", especially when she's bound to be unfavourably compared to Jennifer Ehle.
If they're going to go very young and a classic role, I think they'll go for Q'Orianka, who would fulfil their "diversity" trend and who has a famous auteur behind her (she also doesn't have the aura of 'mediocrity' around her that Knightley does). And again, while Elizabeth Bennett is a great role, it doesn't come with Oscar hooks like Brandon Teena, Leticia Musgrove and Aileen Wournos.
I think the Globes will nominate Renee (though her Oscar chances are practically non-existent).
I appreciate your stubborness re: Huffman. I, for one, was holding out re: Theron until Keaton got moved and then I just couldn't not predict her.
The category is just looking so effin' empty beyond Reese and Judi.
And Desperate Housewives crossover love is bound to help Felicity at SAG and HFPA who proved last year with Foxx and Swank that they suffer from 'let's check someone we like eveywhere he or she is eligible' sydrome.
Even David Poland (who's poo-pooed on the film all over the place) gave in this week.
So if she misses, I salute you.
I really WANT to say Natasha will make it. Merchant-Ivory are great at getting women nominated (including Natasha's mother twice over), the role is baity and she's a lovely actress with connections.
So why oh why is SPC still keeping the film under such tight wraps. Especially now that it's completed and some people have seen it...
Just noticed SPC has a link for The White Countess website. It's still under construction but a trailer can't be far off now.
www.sonypictures.com/classics/whitecountess/
I also think the globes will nominate Renée (if in fact they go for Cinderella Man). After all, they've never gotten the chance to nominate her for dramatic actress before, and I'm sure they've wanted to. After all, she's managed a "WTF!?" style nomination before (just last year with Bridget 2) so I'd put nothing past them. And this would make it 6 years in a row! Sweet Jesus.
And I really want to know which category Huffman and Knightley will be placed in by the HFPA. It could really affect their (and others') chances.
And is Transamerica supposed to be bad? I've read some very good things, and the trailer looks quite fun... if not exactly oscary.
I think Knightly will (and should) be pushed in the Drama category. It's all about the tone with Austen, I guess. Emma was very much sold as a comedy (winning the comedy score Oscar when the Academy briefly split that category), yet Sense & Sensibility was the Globe winner for Best Drama.
Somehow the tone of P&P lends itself more to the drama category in my mind, though the performances of Blethyn, Hollander etc would more appropriately be deemed comedic.
Oh, who the hell knows? These are the people that nominated Bjork for Drama actress rather than Musical actress, but went the other way for Jamie Foxx.
Rob
I continue to be a little flummoxed by all the "Charlize won't place because North Country is fading fast" talk. First off, the film may indeed be fading, but the notices for Charlize are not. Second, NC crapped out at the box-office ... but so has everything else this year. If we're waiting on the box-office to prop up our Best Actress nominees, then we're left with Jodie Foster in Flightplan. The only Best Actress nominees with a chance to have a hit are Reese and Zhang.
I agree that North Country's box-office won't affect it. It'll affect the FILM but not Charlize. It's not like Upside of Anger made a lot of cash. Transamerica won't.
But then, that's why I think Keira could get in. Besides the fact she is indeed great in the film (she handles the dialogue with aplomb) and it's a period film, I'm sure the movie will be able to make a decent amount of cash. It's been a huge hit in the UK and Australia and I'm sure if Focus releases it properly then it could easily make $50mil. But I'm not American so I don't know how you guys take to these sort of movies. UK and Australia eat them up with a spoon.
I wouldn't lock Reese in for the WIN just get. The Academy loves some Judi Dench and I'm sure they'd get much more enjoyment out of awarding her a BEST ACTRESS trophy over the supporting one she already has for an 8 minute perf.
My current predix are the exact same as Nat's though. Allen, Dench, Knightley, Theron & Witherspoon
-Glenn
So does this mean the deglam trend is over!? FINALLY? Has Swank been working on something under the radar all year that might be released next month? Neither Reese, nor Judi, nor Joan (who I think has a shot at the win for being overdue). It seems only Huffman could continue the trend, but even her role is not really the same, since she's older, plus it's sort of a comedy. So it seems the hard times/hard looks trend has officially died. Key word being 'seems'...
Nathaniel, I do think you're underestimating Huffman, for the same reason emmy predicters were underestimating her (most went for Cross or Hatcher). She's very well respected: she's a noted stage actress who's actually started a major theater company w/ David Mamet and her husband. She's definitely a great actress, and has managed to sustain buzz much better than Joan Allen has (people have been discussing this film since she won at Tribeca). There is virtually no downside to her nomination here.
I'll make a wager right now that she'll the critics race (minor and major wins) in this category.
well people hating your film can really damage your prospects and Transamerica is not popular. Also not all critics are won over. I've heard her called "fussy" in the role... not that Oscar doesn't like that. But --well. Maybe it's wishful thinking.
if she's in the de-glam thing continues UGH.
On the Hilary Swank matter, when does Red Dust get released over there?
-Glenn
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