Rankings can be deceiving. Especially in the BEST ACTOR Oscar race. Hoffman may be locked, but I consider spots 2 through 8 to be fairly equal in nominatability. We never know as much as we think we do in November. No combo of 4 of these 7 men would surprise me as Hoffman's competitors. Bana, Phoenix, or Ledger could just-miss even if their films have strong nomination tallies and support. It wouldn't be the first time. Just ask DiCaprio (1997), Crowe (2003), Giamatti (2004), etc...
Tuesday, November 08, 2005
Oscar Updates Complete: Best Actor
Rankings can be deceiving. Especially in the BEST ACTOR Oscar race. Hoffman may be locked, but I consider spots 2 through 8 to be fairly equal in nominatability. We never know as much as we think we do in November. No combo of 4 of these 7 men would surprise me as Hoffman's competitors. Bana, Phoenix, or Ledger could just-miss even if their films have strong nomination tallies and support. It wouldn't be the first time. Just ask DiCaprio (1997), Crowe (2003), Giamatti (2004), etc...
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I'm hoping Jake Gyllenhaal has a chance.
Wait, what other gay roles has Hoffman done? (weird, whenever I type/see "hoffman" I think of Dustin) Boogie Nights and what else? Was he gay in Magnolia? Ripley? Oh right, Flawless. Well, I guess that's three right there.
I'm not seeing Murphy as a nominee... seems too cooky and interesting... probably just a globe comedy nominee and that's it.
And speaking of which:
Joaquin Phoenix
Matthew Broderick
Nathan Lane
Cillian Murphy
and who else (for the globes?)
Carrell? Martin? Murray? Someone else? No one is sticking out to me. Is Daniels' role considered comedy?
For the Christmas season also: christmas cartoon movie , might as well get in the spirit early this year!
i'm currently predicting PITT for MRS & MRS SMITH for a comedy slot
wow the races are really exciting at this point. it's when we come to late december and all of the nominees are spelled out that the proceedings become boring (see 2003/2004). but i hope this year will be different.
in any case, if match point, new world and brokeback mountain all become the masterworks they're expected to be, 2005 will morph from pedestrian to outstanding.
I think Hustle & Flow will be deemed "musical", thus giving a nod to Terrence Howard, alongside Broderick, Lane, Murphy and Phoenix.
Good work, Nathaniel, apart from the fact I don't think Ralph Fiennes is coming to pass. Don't see why he'd be Globed or BFCAed over the likes of Crowe, Depp and Strathairn, and that'll probably do him in.
Take it from someone who's seen it- Brokeback AIN'T getting into Art Direction.
There is absolutely nothing special about the sets (which aren't that "period" anyways), and are completely absent for about 40% of the movie.
Overall, your Best Actor lineup seems solid (I'm still a *tad* skeptical to put Hoffman in the green...though he's admittedly very very close to that status), if it weren't for the fact that it's lacking a "star".
I suspect Fiennes will end up going for one of Clooney (if the film is good), Crowe (if they forgive him and the campaign does the trick) or Depp (if Weinstein push hard enough and he gets the Globe nod- from there popularity ought to do the trick, bad film or no).
A lead actor lineup lacking any a-listers would be...odd.
Still, gotta love your work, and glad to see Howard rising. Just wish I had more faith in him.
Oh, and also thought I'd add that only Swicord and Wright are being credited on the MoaG script and Kushner is taking sole credit for Munich.
I'm going with Hoffman (ick, ick, ick), Phoenix (boring nod though), Ledger (wishing and hoping for the nod), Fiennes (wishing and hoping for the win), and, I don't know-Tommy Lee Jones (sort of an Ed Harris for Pollock thing). The fifth slot is wide open here, imho.
i don't think holding on to fiennes is as risky as most think. he will get media resurgence with Harry Potter for sure. And then three weeks later White Countess premieres and then top ten lists remind everyone about his comeback in Constant Gardner.
i don't think its farfetched.
nathaniel, why are you so down on Colin Farrell? If New World is going to be such a big player in most other categories, as you seem to think it will, shouldn't the lead be in the mix?
Clearly he has a very mixed (to be polite) track record, but he has shown signs of a true acting talent in the past.
i'm not down on him at all. I actually really love him -thought he was just fine in Alexander and Home at the End of the World despite what everyone said.
i just don't think Oscar will be ready for him until after he gives a great performance. not as he gives one. if you see what i'm saying
Pitt from Mr. and Mrs. Smith? Is that a joke?
I think the Terrance Howard nod makes a lot more sense. I wouldn't discount Bill Murray either.
I also think Feinnes will get in... White Countess is actually putting out ads now, right? I think he (along with Allen) will get just what the need from the NBR in December...
But, Adam, this is the Globes. Globes likey big stars in big hits, and at the very least one of the comedy nominees will have absolutely no Oscar value. Pitt seems like a perfectly sane choice to me, especially since MR. AND MRS. SMITH was a hit in a year with precious few success stories.
I know it's the globes... I guess what's weird to me is that Pitt would randomly get in without Jolie, when it's such a two-hander (not that I've seen it). AND it's also not considered a very good movie. It just seems so obviously "we couldn't find anyone else, so let's go with Pitt." I just don't see it. I could see Steve Carrell more easily for a well-received hit like 40-year-old virgin. Or Terrance Howard (who I don't personally think has any real oscar value... I actually don't anyone from this category stands any kind of real chance except Phoenix, who will win.)
I think the spot Nat is saying will got to Pitt will actually go to Steve Carell. He also has "The Office", and he's a great guy and a decent actor (and he wasn't involved in a divorce this year).
Plus, I thought Angelina Jolie was actually REALLY good in Mr & Mrs Smith, and if the comedy actress field wasn't so crowded, I'd predict her to get in.
Anyway.
I... don't really have much to say. It all seems pretty good to me.
The Brokeback Mountain soundtrack is available now btw. It's pretty good from what I've heard. Althought hearing Willie Nelson sing "He Was A Friend Of Mine" is sort of odd. Does he know what the movie is about?
And, on the matter of BM, I was also skeptical about it's Art Direction and Costuming. Cause it's set 40 odd years ago. It's not 100 years ago. Or 100 years in the future. It doesn't seem like a very frequently nominated period...
-Glenn
I'm gonna guess that Hoffman is actually snubbed. Well liked character actors get their oscars in support (see Broadbent, Cooper, del Toro). Leading men (see Penn, Foxx, Washington, even Brody) win in the leading category.
Hoffman probably won't get snubbed, but he won't win either. And then later people will say "but he lost for Capote!" and give him an oscar for support.
Is Brokeback really out of art direction? I think if they really love it, it could place even without fancy sets. Who knows, though.
Yeah, I doubt Hoffman will be snubbed, but I doubt he will win.
Although, he does have that "schlub" thing going on that Paul Giamatti has in spades. At least here Hoffman isn't capitalising on it. But, still, he IS the "character actor" thing that will probably work against him.
It is odd though to pick who else could win. Out of the lineup that Nat gives, I wouldn't know who to predict.
Although, to everyone who doubts Ledger's ability to win I point them in the direction of a young man by the name of Adrien Brody.
-Glenn
Adrien Brody was older, though, and he was still the youngest winner ever, right? Plus, the "everyone else we can vote for has already won" factor undoubtedly cinched it.
Although I don't think it's impossible for Ledger. If Brokeback takes off, anything is possible for him. I particularly think it's possible that he'd win the globe for drama. But I think the oscar win is headed to Feinnes or Pheonix.
Ledger is 26 I believe. Brody was 29. And wasn't the general concensus in 2002 that Brody won because of a Day Lewis/Nicholson split or something. Cage and Caine were non-factors in that race. Plus, it was a well-loved movie (actor, director and screenplay). If BB is loved and if Ledger is indeed as good as people are saying then he could be a legitimate contender. Maybe if there's a Hoffman/Phoenix/Feinnes split. Lol.
God, I love speculation!
But, yes, i think he could be a very good bet for a Globe.
And while at the start of the year I thought Jake would get the NBR award for Best Actor (cause of his three movies) I hadn't even thought that Ledger would get the most positive reviews for the film. Hmmm... Plus, actors make up the largest section AND they could possibly want to welcome him to the big league? Oh, i dunno. I just love the thought of Heath freakin' Ledger winning an Oscar!
(this post is too long)
-Glenn
i don't think PITT AND JOLIE are unlikely. Even when they can make perfectly rational choices for musical/comedy they often go somewhere towards a star they love unquestioningly like Zellweger in Bridget Jones 2 or Stone in the Mighty or whatever. they've made a lot of really weird choices in the past in this category. although I remain quite grateful that this category exists at all because it definitely enlivens the Oscar race.
I like that you've still got Fiennes in the mix. A lot of people are dropping him from their short list.
As long as he gets nominated I think Fiennes wins. But I'm still not sure he gets nominated. Weird, very weird.
White Countess screens this weekend at Denver and Ft. Lauderdale and SPC's Academy screenings have started.
Still not much buzz. Weird, very weird.
Hmm... well I guess there is still one comedy female slot that could sort of go anywhere... though I would pencil in Streep, Allen, Dench, and WItherspoon right now. I thought the last spot would go to Knightley, Huffman and/or Parker (not to mention Thurman, Aniston, and some other options) but really I guess it could go to just about anyone. So many choices! A lot depends on what category Huffman and Knightley get put in. I'm really curious to know.
I also love the comedy categories and their potential to house everything from the unholy to the sublime. Last year's Renee nod REALLY pissed me off, though. I mean, Jesus. TRY to mask your fanaticism for her just a LITTLE bit. Lindsay Lohan really did deserve that nod.
If Z gets nommed in drama this year for C Man I may just have to write hate mail.
You know, I just had an interesting thought: if the Globes really wanted to make a bitchy little statement - and grab some ratings, to boot - they'd nominate Pitt for Mr. and Mrs. Smith, and then bump Jolie from the list in favor of Jen Aniston for Rumor Has It. Mmm, scandalous.
I think they're going to nod Pitt, Jolie AND Aniston so they can have the trainwreck of a red carpet showdown. And Aniston will bring the rebound Vaughn.
And then Vaughn gets nominated for Wedding Crashers, and ... madness.
Elle Driver quotes that remind me of....
Brad Pitt - "I might never have liked you. Point in fact, I despise you. But that shouldn't suggest... I don't respect you."
Renée Zellweger regarding her Bridget 2 nom - "Thought that was pretty *beeping* funny didn't you? Word of advice, *you big beep*, don't you ever wake up!!"
Charlize Theron - "Oh, you don't owe her $hit!"
Hilary Swank regarding her win over Kate Winslet - "Right now, the biggest R I feel is regret. Regret, that maybe, the greatest *actress* I have ever met, met her end at the hands of a simple-minded, one-dimensional, instantly forgettable performance like yours!"
Random Academy voter referring to Uma Thurman: "That woman.... deserves her revenge. And we---we deserve to die."
Uma: "You and I have unfinished business."
Voter: "Baby, you ain't kiddin'".
Someone shoot me now. I promise not to go on a revenge quest later on.
They should have a special golden globe category called "stars we most want just to be here just cause we and/or the tabloids love them". Why beat around the bush.
AND THE NOMINEES ARE:
Jennifer Aniston
Angelina Jolie
Brad Pitt
Vince Vaughn
Renée Zellweger
AND THE GOLDEN GLOBE FOR "HFPA PIMP" GOES TO:
Renée Zellweger
Now, take your 4th statue and go away.
It would be funny to see any number of these scenarios unfold.
(Hilary Swank isn't that bad, she just wasn't Oscar worthy)
The Uma Kill Bill quotes were so true. She does deserve her reward, except they sorta don't deserve to die cause if they do we wouldn't all be here!
-Glenn
This from PageSix:
"ON Nov. 21, the entire N.Y.C. community of actors, moguls, socialites and just plain rich folk converge on the Paris Theatre for the premiere of the final Merchant-Ivory film, "The White Countess" (producer Ismail Merchant died in May.) Stars Ralph Fiennes, Natasha Richardson, Vanessa and Lynn Redgrave promise to attend. Dinner at the Metropolitan Club. This benefits Dr. Roger Lobo's research at Columbia Medical Center on women's health issues. Call (212) 935-6700.
Hope you're either a socialite or just plain rich Nathaniel. I'd love to hear what you think.
Sorry... that was from Liz Smith, not Page Six
Here's an interesting interview with Ralph Fiennes talking about The White Countess.
The link is at Rotten Tomatoes' The White Countess page.
www.rottentomatoes.com/m/white_countess/
I guess I'm flogging a dead horse but I still really want to see this movie.
Keep up the good work »
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