November 6th Prediction Updates for PICTURE and DIRECTOR. Obviously the big drop being Sam Mendes and Jarhead... though I do feel the film is being criticized for strange reasons. Not that there isn't something to criticize. Just not the same ones that are happening. I am still predicting a 3/5 split between these two categories... though I should note that that is always easier to imagine before the precursors begin the homogenization process. Once all those similar sounding and Academy influencing lists come out it might be a different story entirely.
Sunday, November 06, 2005
Picture and Director
November 6th Prediction Updates for PICTURE and DIRECTOR. Obviously the big drop being Sam Mendes and Jarhead... though I do feel the film is being criticized for strange reasons. Not that there isn't something to criticize. Just not the same ones that are happening. I am still predicting a 3/5 split between these two categories... though I should note that that is always easier to imagine before the precursors begin the homogenization process. Once all those similar sounding and Academy influencing lists come out it might be a different story entirely.
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Okay, that's interesting! I predicted Crash just the other day, so I feel chuffed that somebody else is thinking along the same wavelength. I think the "passionate" vote will mean a bit this season.
It's seems odd but the nomination I feel most assured off in both Picture and Director is Walk the Line. If Ray can do it then surely this one can, which looks immensely better. If Taylor Hackford can get in the lineup for what was arguable one of the most sporadic movies of last year, then surely Mangold can.
Maybe it's just because I liked many of Mangold's other movies such as Cop Land, Identity and Girl Interrupted...
I still don't think Cronenberg will happen. You mention Lynch and Almodovar on the page, but unlike those two Cronenberg's movies have been pretty much ignored in the past by the Academy haven't they? Lynch had three nominations before Mulholland Dr. and Almodovar received Oscar love for All About My Mother.
I know it's silly to not be thinking about Clooney for director, but haven't the actor/directors in the past all made Oscar-tastic films to get nominated? Redford had a suburbian family drama while Costner and Eastwood had western epics. Clooney's little black and white film about television... it's definitely a possibility but I definitely don't have him as high as you.
-Glenn
As always, excellent prognosis. I have to agree on Walk the Line and Brokeback Mountain-they're looking a bit lockish at the moment, even though it's only November. Munich also looks good.
I'm thinking Mrs. Henderson and Match Point look better for the final five, though-Good Night and Crash seem too small.
As for Director, I'm in major agreement over Allen, Clooney (he'll be the different one between the two), Lee, and Spielberg-I'd swap Mangold for Cronenberg, but otherwise I like this lineup-well done.
Can't wait for Best Actor!
See, I don't think Brokeback is anywhere near a lock. It's not even released yet, and even then it has a big hurdle to get over in terms of the Academy.
And, er, if GN&GL is considered small, then what's Match Point? Isn't that coming out at the very last minute?
-Glenn
This is more irreverent than anything else, but I was just thinking that if you ever bump CRASH up higher on the list of Best Direction or Best Original Screenplay contenders, you could always use this pic:
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Image:Hag.jpg
Ew.
Brokeback is as close to a lock as anything we have seen this year. It's been getting rapturous reviews from every festival it goes to. Ang Lee is a well-respected director who the Academy would love to award. This is going to be THE hot-button issue movie this year, which never hurts a movie's Academy chances (the Academy is a liberal enough body to get over the gay hurdle at least to nominate something). Combine that with its apparent high quality and you have at the very least a nomination. It's not a movie that will likely win Best Picture, but it definitely will garner a nomination. The only things I can see derailing Brokeback Mountain's chances are a bunch of unexpected movies that come out of nowhere in late December a la Million Dollar Baby (King Kong is shaping up to be much better than anyone could have anticipated, even with Peter Jackson, and that is going to have huge box office regardless of its quality) or if there is a sort of Sundance Syndrome happening and it ends up being not as good as everyone says it is outside the festival scene (but it's across the board raves make that seem not likely).
The only thing I can actually see beating Brokeback (this is for the WIN) is Munich. I mean really... Mrs. Henderson Presents? No. Walk the Line? Doubtful (but possible). Crash? For the win? No. I really think all the "controversy" press will only help it. Anyway, it is getting raves not for being controversial, but for crafting a universal story out of this hot-button issue. I'm actually glad Lee made it instead of Van Sant, cause his version surely would have been more "fringe" and making it universal and accessible to the masses (well, as much as possible) was such a better idea. I just really have this feeling about Brokeback, that it's gonna be a HUGE huge thing. I really think the race is down to Brokeback and Munich, and maybe Walk the Line... unless, say, Rent shocks everyone with its greatness and the academy falls head over heels... or they're suddenly overcome with a desire to honor Merchant/Ivory's last film... but that is highly unlikely. Brokeback will be fighting it out for the big prize, mark my words.
I've always thought "King Kong" will be a (good) surprise regarding its quality. It's being awfully underestimated for awards chances.
I'm also very looking forward to see what Nat thought of "Jarhead".
Match Point may be small, but it has one big name attached to it-Woody Allen. Never mind that he loathes the Academy, the Academy loves him the same. If people crow enough about Allen's return, this will be in.
In spite of Woody's 20 career nominations, his films have only ever been BP nominated twice. So I think Nathaniel's current tally for Match Point (Director, Supporting Actress, Original Screenplay) is spot-on, unless Dreamworks wakes up from the hole they've been living in. December 25th is not a good release date for something like this, especially when it's been finished for so long.
The Producers may not get nominated, or even be a contender, but surely it has a better chance than stuff like Breakfast on Pluto and Jarhead?
Advance word is very strong. Even if Oscar doesn't take it seriously, HFPA are very likely to, at least giving it the look of a conteder.
I agree that The Producers would be a much better bet than quite a lot of films atm.
-Glenn
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