Biggest Winners? I'd say there's three of them. Brokeback Mountain with 8 nominations. Crash with its much needed Director and Picture nominations (as well as two Supporting bids). And, finally Catherine Keener who after this weekend looks to be in the hunt despite a non-typical performance. She's great in Capote. I just wasn't expecting her to do so well in precursor season given the very background and quiet nature of her character.Biggest Losers: The Family Stone, A History of Violence, and Match Point. Two of which went entirely unmentioned. History should've done better but then, this is not a true "critics" group (it's more a mainstream journalist/talking head group) so it's not that shocking.
Most Vindicating Feeling This Weekend: I've been right about more things than usual this year. I was right about Brokeback Mountain all along. It wasn't a popular entry in my one-year-in-advance writeup. I was correct that Crash would resurface in a powerful way. I was right about Memoirs and Munich being shakier than expected. I was right about Rachel Weisz and Joan Allen still being in play... all of these things are things I took heat for in Oscar watching land so na-nee-na-nee-boo-boo haters!Still...
Maybe I was wrong about Cinderella Man's death. Ugh.
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11 comments:
Good going on your predictions, Nathaniel!
A question: how do you feel about Gyllenhaal being placed in Best Supporting Actor (not only here, but in the overall campaign)? I'm not really happy with it (fraud!), but I'd like to know what you think about it.
Memoirs Best Picture nod aside, this list is a lot better than I expected. Along with the nods for Allen and Costner, my favorite nomination is Maria Bello for Violence. Go Maria go!
Yikes. Big uh-oh for Match Point. It doesn't really seem like the BFCA's kinda thing anyway, but not even a Johannson? That shocked me. Maybe she isn't as locked in as I thought...
But so happy for the Brokeback dominance. On my blog, I called a best picture oscar win for Brokeback before the LA or BFCA announcements, and I expect to be right. I think it will get 8 globe nods as well, win both the globe and the BFCA award, and probably the NBR. It will be a tsunami. And the box office so far is terriffic. To be honest, I see no real competition... Brokeback is the oscar frontrunner. So amazing... you know, if movies like this had been out being successful and winning oscars like 5 or 10 years ago, it would've been a hell of a lot easier to come out as a teenager. Seriously.
I didn't realize Terrence Howard wrote a song for Hustle & Flow... perhaps that's the category they'll reward him in this year? I don't see him making the cut, despite this best actor nom... Feinnes and Bana are still looming (and weird that Feinnes was snubbed and Weisz was not... hm.)
I would add to the "winners" list King Kong, which now solidifies itself as something award-worthy. I'm not totally sold as of yet, but if it does gonzo box office, it's chances are quite good.
Is it me or Bob Hoskins is in a very uncomfortable situation right now?
Can i state for the record, that I thought Crash was up for big things BEFORE NATHANIEL!!!
Okay, that was going too far. But I feel vindicated in feeling it was gonna go somewhere all those months ago when I felt something in my metaphorical oscar predicting waters.
I'm pleased also because I actually LIKE the movie. Funny how that works.
Who reckons the BFCA just gave us our Best Actress line up + one extra? I do (Theron being the extra).
And that Amy Adams just keeps on popping up.
And it should be noted that, yes, Memoirs got a Best Picture nomination - but it also got zilch anywhere else. Same goes for Munich - well, except for Director.
Why wasn't Millions nominated for Family Film (Live Action)? That's a head scratcher.
Oh, and WTF is with "Seasons of Love" being nominated? It ain't original.
Can I make a modest proposal? Why even discuss the BFCAs? I'm an intravenous awards junkie like the rest of y'all, so I'm not on any righteous soapbox, but given how absolutely NO merit or credibility has ever attached itself to this group or its choices, I make a point of never knowing what's nominated, when it's on, or even who wins until the blurbs show up in the trade ads. Why don't we all just ignore it?
As far as I'm concerned, it's like the People's Choice Awards, except for Publicists, and it only happens to fall during awards season. When you can't even match the Golden Globe voters for integrity and originality of vision, you've not only got a problem, you just suck. (No comment intended on any BFCA members personally; I don't know any of them, and institutionally, the group seems to have a braindead non-mind of its own that trumps any possible list of constituents.)
And I'd be all set to agree wholeheartedly with you, Nick, except ... Upside of Anger! Whee!
We discuss the BFCAs because they matter in terms of what will make it to oscar, even more than the globes. That's the only reason.
I think both Theron and Knightley might be ousted by a new face, but the other four are looking solid to me (thought the NYFCO win boes well for Keira).
For the record, I was thinking for a while that Keaton wasn't the lock people thought... if they don't go for the film at all, they won't go for her either, since she's just one of the ensemble. But I DID think Scarlett had her place in the lineup etched in stone, so her ommission is rather shocking... but you can bet she'll be in the globe list... I still expect her to win that race.
I feel like Hoskins and Hurt now are the only ones in supporting actor outside of the BFCA list with a good oscar shot, so that category's been cleared up considerably.
And a big ouch to Feinnes and Bana.
One again, proving that blinding following the crowd does not make great Oscar predicting, I must offer you full-hearted congrats, Nat.
As for Cinderella Man, I wouldn't get TOO discouraged just yet. Remember that the BFCA is to Russell Crowe what the HFPA is to Nicole Kidman.
And what a pleasant suprise for Costner!
But with Scarlett Johnasson, part of the reason why everyone thinks she's so certain to be nommed is because she was snubbed in 2003. Most of these critics groups haven't done so, they don't owe Scarlett anything.
The BFCAs are incredibly annoying in the "we'll nominate what's hot right now". I mean, seriously. Memoirs is below 30% at RT, how can that be a critics choice nominee over something like Wallace & Gromit or Batman Begins or History of Violence, or... you get the picture.
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