In this trying time of predicting pundits with awards shows ( like the BFCA) the Hollywood Foreign Press Association --better known as the Golden Globes, that original Oscar-influencing wannabe, needs and deserves your support more than ever. Talk about their choices. Support them. Argue with them. They make horrible calls sometimes. But they also actually vote for things they love instead of things that Oscar might love. Which is the only reason to have your own awards show; Voicing your own opinion.My feelings on each category HAVE BEEN POSTED on the main site here . Discuss here if it so pleases your Foreign Press loving hearts. Official changes to Oscar predictions (if they're be any... i'm pretty thrilled with the accuracy of my pre-precursor hunches) will arrive as scheduled on the 16th. Enjoy...
Posts
26 comments:
Well, I've done an initial analysis over on my blog
http://kamikazecamel.blogspot.com/
but here's the key points
-Munich got wounded
-the HFPA were ahead of us all (except maybe Nat, lol) by snubbing Memoirs in Drama
-Pierce Brosnan? Wow
-THE CONSTANT GARDENER!! So happy
-Their Top 5 for Drama is so applause worthy. They have shown enourmously good taste.
-I fear Joan Allen is slipping away... never to be heard from again...
btw, i was totally only online by accident when they were announced.
If I had gone to sleep when I originally planned do I would've missed them. Silly me.
Best Picture nomination for Squid and the Whale?
Fantastic.
Yet it did not score a screenplay nomination while...Crash did? Yikes.
For those wondering about Pierce, he was good -- but this seems more like a "play a crazy hitman having a meltdown" and grab a nom for your wicked one-liners.
NO JULIANNE MOORE........... sad. really, really sad. would have been a great surprise and really really fair. but brosnan?? no moore? she really should have been nominated for "The Prize Winner of Defiance Ohio". REALLY!!!
I've just seen The Family Stone and it's awful. As in awful. How Sarah Jessica Parker managed to score a Best Actress nod for it beats me: her performance is like nails on a blackboard. And Keaton's no great shakes either. Ghastly stuff.
The silver lining? Rachel McAdams, of course. *sigh*
I'm mostly OK with the line-up, save for a few omissions - Joan Allen, Viggo Mortensen, Ralph Fiennes, Jake Gyllenhaal, Amy Adams.
I also worry for Maria Bello, who has been done a considerable disservice by being promoted unnecessarily (it's support, it's support... it's SO support, and great support at that!)
I'm loving some of the braver omissions (Munich shut out of BP).
But I would have liked to have seen a few more "who the hell saw THAT coming?" nominations?
Depp was almighty in The Libertine (as was Rosamund Pike in support, though I think I'm the only one who noticed)... I would have loved to have seen him nommed for Drama for that turn rather than for the puzzler that was Willy Wonka...
Rob
Quite a stir the Globes have made.
No love for the big movies made with Oscar intentions. Can this really be the start of a new Hollywood, less hype and more quality oriented?
And OMG Gwyneth's nomination really made my day!
This is making me realize/remember that the globes have ALWAYS been kind to focus (and again here, with two pic noms), and that's encouraging, because focus always has quality product that will likely continue to be propped up by the globes.
I'm sad about Allen, too... if she'd bumped Ziyi, this would've been a sweet lineup.
And the Feinnes thing is bizarre... just like in BFCA, love for the picture, and Weisz, but not him... I can only conclude that he split a few votes with the baitier White Countess role both times.
SO happy to see Brokeback remain on top... and with practically nothing in its way. The only one they let go of was Gyllenhaal, and I think it's just cause they didn't buy his placement (it's weird, sometimes they're total sticklers about that... like with him and Bello this year, and sometimes they roll right over, i.e. Jamie FOxx last year).
I would've liked to see Heath nommed for Casanova to give him muscle against Hoffman in the drama race, but I had a feeling it wouldn't happen. But then, Capote didn't get the love either... so which of them is looking like the wiiner here? I kinda wanna say Ledger.
And I said earlier on my blog that Keaton was not the lock people thought (though I still had her second only to Johannson on my chart), because it's a mainstream family film and an equally weighted ensemble.
This proves once again that if you're a mainstream type nominee that needs box office to be taken seriously, then you have to have it already for the globes to nominate you (see King Kong and Family Stone). They go for stars, critical darlings, and commercial successes THAT HAVE ALREADY PROVED THEIR WORTH. It's a pattern with them.
My thoughts:
Best Surprise Everyone Saw Coming: Brokeback Mountain takes the cake
Best Surprise I didn't see coming: Rachel Weisz-sure some people pegged it, but I had lost hope, now it's rekindled
Biggest Letdown: Ralph Fiennes (I'm also bummed about Jake and Diane, though)
Nicest Omission: Renee Zellwegger
What it does to the Oscar races:
Actor-It's Ledger v. Hoffman, or, I fear, Swank v. Bening, part deux (with a male twist)-come on Heath!
Actress-It's Huffman v. Witherspoon (you know both will win their trophies)-I'm gunning for Reese, to break the curse.
Supporting Actor-I'm starting to suspect that Clooney wins here to make up for his loss in Director
Supporting Actress-Watch out for Michelle Williams (long-suffering wife, hot young thing, best picture creds)
I forgot to add:
Weirest attribute of the race: What was the deal with The White Countess?!?
On Best Actor, Drama: The lack of Capote love (not even a screenplay nod, which shocked me) makes me think that Ledger might be able to pull out a win here, given the overwhelming support for BBM.
On Best Actress, Drama: Hmmm. Logic says that Huffman will win here (I still say she'll lose the eventual Oscar to either Dench or Witherspoon), but I think she may be a surprise loser here. To whom? I honestly don't know...it's just a hunch (or perhaps a hope disguised as a hunch, as I am not a fan of hers) at this point.
Random feelings:
Viva the year of Clooney! GNaGL is good to go for an Oscar Best Picture slot, and I think he'll get end up with at least one Globe and one Oscar at the end of the year.
Hooray for the practical no-show for Memoirs of a Geisha, though I feel like someone should call Zhang Zhi and tell her there's been some mistake, and she has to give her slot to Joan Allen.
Anyone else thinking that Jeff Daniels could reach out and grab that 5th Best Actor slot?
- Julia
The thing that confuses me about this year's crop of best actresses is that so many people are saying that the category is weak (which it is). But when pressed to name award-worthy performances, Joan Allen's name is not brought up as much as it should be. Not only has she given one of the best performances of the year (male and female) for The Upside of Anger, but she was also in Yes and Off the Map, which are both strong performances. Why her name was left off of the Globes list is unbelievable! If she isn't nominated by AMPAS, then the voters haven't done their homework - plain and simple.
Erik
re: Joan Allen
I'm not Nathaniel-level in love with this performance, but I thought it was very very good and deserves to be nommed (certainly more than Knightley, and I assume, Ziyi).
But remember, the globes have never been overly fond of her. They passed her over for Nixon, and were the first body to snub her for Pleasantville, getting the ball rolling for that travesty of a snub.
Her BFCA nod bodes well for her, so I think she may yet make the list, though the lack of love from LA and NBR (plus the globe snub) is troubling... I really thought she'd make the globe list.
Still, when AMPAS members are sitting there with their ballots and they have a choice between Allen and Knightley... I mean, come on.
Check out the video link from CNN's frontpage on the GG noms. The anchor tries a little unconvincingly to let it be known that he's barely even heard of BBM or Jake Gyllenhaal. A bunch of macho bullpoop.
kamikaze ---agreed that their drama choices are commendable. i don't much like Constant Gardener but it's a film that I understand why others do and it's not the embarrassing choice suck-up that Geisha woulda been.
nick m --i watched crash again recently and i agree that squid shoulda had its spot. the screenplay is, opposite of seemingly public opinion, the weakest element in an otherwise quite effective film. it's just too on the nose. awkwardly so.
hello --you know i worship the Moore but her Prize Winner performance is not top 5 material (although more deserving than Ziyi in drama at least)
tim r --can rachel mcadams do anything wrong? the next 5 years of her career should be a sweet thing to behold
rob --i skipped depp as i don't believe in one-week qualifiers and people kept telling me it was awful. he was really that good?
jose --i was happy for Gwynnie's nod too. She's not anywhere close to my fav actress but i think it was a better choice than some places they could have gone (ahem. zellweger)
adam --agreed on the box office. now next year when i have to make this same argument about whatever dumbass studio moves a crowdpleaser into december and everyone disses me i hope you'll all remember this. i can't believe that so many oscar pundits (won't name names) were saying the move to december was good for the family stone. If you're a mainstream wannabe HIT type of film rather than an artsy endeavor, December is about the last place you wanna be. Especially since Christmas films do their best box office at Thanksgiving time. DUH!
and i don't think Knightley has to fall for Allen to rise up. I think Theron has to. end of story.
gerry --i don't think supporting actor is quite THAT narrow yet. but we'll see how the rest of the critics awards and SAG shake out.
For the record, Nathaniel, I was with you on the Family Stone move the whole time. It seemed like a good thanksgiving movie. Maybe they were thinking since it was a "Christmas movie" it should've been released at christmastime? Whatever, still a bad move.
So you really think 3 of the 5 actress nominees will be from comedy? That never ever happens. Especially when at least one of the other two (Huffman) also gives a relatively comedic perf. I guess Theron gets points for being the only truly dramatic nominee in the pack, then. If they choose Allen instead, then EVERY nominee will be at least a little bit comedic.
That said, I do think Aeon Flux will hurt Theron a lot. Do they really want to nominate her for another oscar while that movie is in theaters? It's clear evidence that she's going the way of Halle Berry (though I do still like Charlize more).
Re: Crash screenplay -- exactly, Nathaniel. Exactly.
Oh, and as for who's winning Supporting Actress: at least as far as the Globes are concerned, Scarlet's taking it. 4 noms in 3 years and no wins yet? Yeah.
Well, strictly speaking, Aeon Flux will be long gone from theatres by the time Oscar nods happen.
But it should've still been there, had it truly been a success ; )
Oh whatever. It's probably moot, since people don't seem to have any problems nominating her right now. But I remain hopeful that she'll be passed over.
As soon as Jake didn't show up in Supporting Actor it became obvious they chose him for Lead. Because the supporting actor race is a bit odd, if they placed him there he would've placed easily. But, yeah, it seems obvious now that they threw him in Lead and he had too much competition to overcome.
I am not predicting Theron anymore (haven't for a while) but am now also doubting Allen.
When I saw Crash all the way back in april (we got it about a month before you guys I believe) I thought the screenplay was the worst part of the film. I always found it odd that that was the aspect of the film that seemed locked and sealed for a nomination. Strange indeed.
Lack of Capote love makes me interested in how it's going with the Academy. Will they fall on the HFPA of the equation or one of the critics groups? Hmmm. I have a hunch that says the former. They already have a their homo quota filled with Mountain.
I agree with Bruce Packer who asked about Dave Poland. I don't really get him anymore. the HFPA produced a remarkably untainted list, that he thinks they are indeed tainted, then that just makes him cynical (never could spell that word).
And, seriously, couldn't we all sniff Oscar disaster about The Family Stone when they released the poster? That was an awful poster, especially for a film trying to get Oscar gold. since then I've only seen it placing Supporting Actress and barely getting into screenplay - but now I think I'm gonna drop even that. The December release was just the sour icing on the lumpy cake.
It still looks like a good movie though!
I'm seeing King Kong tonight! I'm pumped. Although three hours is scaring me. This ain't Titanic.
Nat - your sources are sound; The Libertine kinda stank. The performances, however, did not.
Rob
Rosamund Pike won Best Supporting Actress at the BIFAs btw.
I didn't know that - yay! I figured it was one of those "Elisabeth Shue in Mysterious Skin" type supporting turns that I'd notice and nobody else would!
(Do you see how I sneakily tucked an FYC in there?!)
Rob
I'm really happy for MATCH POINT and A HISTORY OF VIOLENCE.
Joan Allen is slipping away, yeah, but her film is horrible.
Down with Anonymous people who criticise prefectly good films (Upside of Anger) yet praise bad ones (Defiance Ohio).
or, ya know... if you gave us a name I'd be much more accomodating...
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