What to make of all this King Kong excitement? Sasha Stone went nuts for it. Tim R @ mainly movies says it's the movie of the year. Still and all. It has so many strikes against it with Oscar: Remake of classic. Big apes. Dinosaurs. Jackson already amply rewarded just 2 years ago. But regardless of Oscar chances isn't it nice that December is so exciting after a very rough year? ...cinematically speaking. (Kong moves up on my Oscar charts)Tomorrow the first major awards are announced. This time it's not the NBR but the Los Angeles Film Critics Association who are kicking it off. So without further ado my predictive stabs in the dark...
PIC Brokeback (alt: Capote, Munich)
DIR Spielberg (alt: Lee, Cronenberg)
ACTRESS Witherspoon (alt: Huffman, Allen)
ACTOR Ledger (alt: Hoffman, Fiennes)
SUPP ACTOR Hurt (alt: Dillon, Pepper)
SUPP ACTRESS Keaton (alt: Williams, Li)
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12 comments:
I told ya "King Kong" would rock your feet...
What is interesting about KING KONG is that it's not so much a remake in the classic sense as a spectacular homage to one of the classic films in movie history. I think AMPAS will love that. The reviewers sure seem to.
naomi watts is in the top ten on the actress chart now, so check it out. Still... the last time a pure genre performance was nominated was 20 years ago with Sigweavie in Aliens. so uphill battle...
I would consider Watts a contender now, but I'm not holding my breath.
I really don't know what to make of King Kong. Not EVERYONE loves it... I've heard some negatives. But if it makes Star Wars type money and gets many many raves, I suppose it might be nominated. A win, though, is out of the question... if only because Jackson JUST won for ANOTHER fantasy film.
I think LA will go for:
Pic - Good Night (alt: Brokeback)
Dir - Lee (alt: Spielberg)
Actor - Hoffman (alt: Mortensen)
Actress - Dench (alt: Allen)
Supp Act - Dillon (alt: Hoskins)
Supp Actr - Bello (alt: Weisz)
...and welcome back!
Rob
OK, now wait, Nat, a little while ago you said you were confident that Crash would be a GG drama nominee and now you've abandoned it for... Capote? Memoirs, which is flailing about wildly in a sea of bad reviews? I think you are afraid of good things happening to you and those (films) you care about.
I am no longer hedging and I am predicting Brokeback to recieve 8 globe nods. I believe in the Ang.
er. i know i did say that. i should probably change that. I don't actually love CRASH but i don't like Geisha much at all --hence the worry.
Very random to see Naomi Watts getting Oscar buzz for this sort of film. I think she got a nod for 21 Grams due to a groundswell of "sorry bout 2001" votes. I'm not sure she can pull it this year. BUT it is a strange field this year with only 2 candidates unlikely to fall. The rest is up for grabs. Do we have another 2003 with surprises.
Oh, And I figured a way to realise whether King Kong will be HUGE when it comes to awards. If the NBR reward it. They never did that with LOTR except for production Design for FOTR and Ensemble for ROTK - sort of a obligitory one I think.
Also, Memoirs' fall from grace is sort of staggering. I figured even that one would be able to weather the storm. I still don't see Capote getting BP or BD, which Poland is suggesting. Nor do I see Capote getting a Drama nod at the Globes.
Naomi Watts has garnered some of the strongest critical notices for any actress this year. Almost every review for King Kong on Rotten Tomatoes is a rave for her performance, even those who have mixed feelings about the movie itself. Stop thinking about how the past Oscars have gone and look at the situation now. Best Actress is weak and Naomi Watts turns in a critically acclaimed movie-elevating performance in the blockbuster of the year. She will be nominated.
If you want a parallel, look at Johnny Depp's performance in Pirates of the Caribbean. He was in a freaking Bruckheimer/Verbinski movie and he still got nominated. He didn't even have the advantage of Peter Jackson and a possible Best Picture nomination. Just like Watts, he made the movie better than what it could have been and he got massive critical praise for it
Nice call on Supporting Actor, my friend! [Even if I still don't get that performance.]
"Stop thinking about how the past Oscars have gone and look at the situation now."
But that's half the prediction game! Looking at what has come before it.
Uma got massive critical raves for Kill Bill, and nothing came of that. Last year there was only 6 real contenders by the end of it!
I'm not saying Naomi ain't a candidate, but it'll take some convincing. If ROTK couldn't get an acting nod...
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