Let us all pause for a moment to consider the death of the wide-open spaces in these here Oscar races. It's kinda like this every year (give or take a few films/performances). Until the precursors begin anything seems possible. Then suddenly, like a thunderclap, possibilities are snuffed out as things get homogenized. With the LAFCA, BFCA, NBR, and NYFCC all announcing in the next 3 days the sometimes maddening narrow-down process commences at warp speed.[sigh] Oh for wide open races when we can still dream (or at least Amy Taubin and I can) that A History of Violence might survive the great and terrible funneling of contenders.
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I'm going to cry when Weisz and Fiennes are plucked from contention: they are both terrific, Oscar-worthy, and my love for them both knows no bounds. I will be glad to gain some semblence of order in Supporting Actor, though (not enough so that it turns into last year's Best Picture race, but I'd like at least a stab in the dark at ONE of the nominees).
I'm still feeling that something completely unexpected is going to rise up. I don't know why. I suppose it's just because i refuse to believe that the season will be as predictable as we think.
Is it really that predictable? The nominees are still pretty up in the air. The only thing that's assured at this point is that Brokeback will do well.
And that Reese, Joaquin, Hoffman, Allen, etc. will be in contention... but there are still tons of wide open spots.
A History of Violence is the best picture of the year (so far), whatever the Oscars have to say about it.
It will be sad to see AHOV go, should it not do well this weekend.
Okay, no, let me restate. It isn't predictable in that we know what will get nominated, but it's predictable in that appears to be out of 8 or so contenders for every category. Everybody's diving into the same pool of nominees.
I hope something completely unexpected rises up.
This is where, hopefully, Memoirs of a Geisha will finally be dropped out of the race completely.
[/wishful thinking]
I saw it last night, and it is one of the worst films I have seen in a while.
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