OK... I've started the Oscar page updates and I figure I'd tackle the behemoth Best Picture first and work my way from there. For the first time in two months I've changed my predicted lineup. Munich leaves the Oscar predicted circle for the first time in my predictions since September and October where it stayed just out of range.My four point reasoning for dumping it? Read the whole thing but it boils down to: 1. Release Date. 2. The "Anointed One" Status. 3. Temperature. 4. DGA vs. Oscar Spielberg history.
Previously 'Doubting Thomas' Post on Munich:
Weird Oscar Equations Munich (Scroll to October 29th)
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12 comments:
I dunno... you have a point with the Spielberg DGA phenomenon, and the dark and challenging nature of the film, but I still don't see capote as a nominee. There was also that issue of Munich on getting screeners out to orgs like the PGA, which could make it look less loved than it is. But yes, it is looking to be sort of a Cold Mountain... but then Capote is even LESS oscary than Lost in Translation. Very weird. Very much a 6-horse race. Bennett Miller is looking pretty good for one of those lone director slots, though. I think this will be one of those years like '95 where the picture and director nominees are wildly different.
I recognize there is a lot of anger in the orgs due to the screening issue and the movie was released late in the year, but Munich is far superior to both Capote and Cold Mountain. I still think it has a decent chance to be nominated. I saw Capote in November and can barely remember it--that's how slight the movie was for me--whereas Munich will get a 2nd and maybe 3rd viewing for me. Cold Mountian was risible and can't compare to either of these movies.
Now, see - I think there is a real possibility the members of the Academy are going to look at these early precursors and say "we can't in our right mind have an Oscar telecast that looks like that" -- not when everyone is screaming about the death of movie theatre attendance, etc.
I really expect a surprise or two come nomination morning.
Well, Walk the Line is definitely in, but what option is there even for a bigger blockbuster? King Kong isn't even the obvious blockbester choice anymore, cause it couldn't even outgross Narnia. WtL is definitely the populist pick of the bunch.
But I still don't so much believe in Capote.
This sounds convoluted, but: Isn't is possible that early shut-outs could inadvertently help Munich's BP prospects by rallying its supporters? Sounds like everyone in the industry thought the film was a complete shoo-in for all these awards, so they may have "wasted" votes on other films, like Capote, because they assumed Munich didn't need their help. Now, perhaps people will be more proactive in their support -- by naming it their first rather than their fourth or fifth choice. That's probably how I would think were I offered an Oscar ballot (ha!).
Anyway, like everyone, I just don't know. We hear it's a six-horse race, but I just can't help but wonder if that fifth BP nominee'll be a true left-fielder, say Cinderella Man (popular with the actors) or, lord forbid, the Chronicles of Narnia (popular with the techies).
I can't agree that Capote should be included in Best Movie or Director...... If not for Hoffman's performance, it was just another movie. I agree the the commentor who said it was forgettable almost immediately.
but people ---the voters have already filled out there ballots. Statistically most of the ballots are returned the first week (the first week is nearly over) which means that the SAG results and the DGA and PGA results were not known to some of those who were filling out ballots. It can have some effect but it's not like the AMPAS voters don't already have their ballots in hand.
there's not much time for anyone to turn anything around.
I do think Munich will make it... it just won't be a conender for the win. There was enough explanation - the lack of screeners, the presumption of fruntrunner status - to explain it's conspicuous absenses. And I just don't see Capote in there. I really wouldn't be surprised either way, I guess.
But I think it will be: Brokeback, Crash, GNaGL, Munich, Walk the Line
And for director: Clooney, Cronenberg, Lee, Miller, Spielberg.
Actually, either way, I think that will be the director lineup... the uncertainty is which way best pic will swing.
The odd thing is about Munich, Capote and Crash is that they aren't movies the academy can nominated for 7+ awards even if they do get into BP. Crash can get BP + director + screenplay + supp. actor + editing = 5. Good number.
Capote? BP + Actor + screenplay? Three nominations? I doubt Keener will show up on the Oscar shortlist, but I suppose it could happen.
Munich? BP + Director + ...Screenplay? Doesn't seem to be that much support for that. The cinematography and such don't seem that exciting. Sound? I dunno.
But just think about last year. All nominees had 7 or more nominations excluding Sideways, which had 5.
Then there's The Constant Gardener which could get BP + Director + Supp Actress + Cinematography + Editing + possibly even Song.
AAANYWAY
My predix right now are
Brokeback Mountain
The Constant Gardener
Crash
Good Night & Good Luck
Walk the Line
with a 3/5 split with director. WtL and Crash missing out for any number of guys.
BTW, i LOVE the image for Walk the Line on your BP page. They're a glamourous pair, huh?!
Oh, interesting to note that you didn't put Hustle & Flow in your Top 25 candidates despite a SAG ensemble nomination. Surely that will get more votes than The Family Stone or Rent. But that's just slight nitpicking.
your right about hustle and flow in the top 25. it just didn't occur to me since it had never been on the list previously
oh on the # of nods thing, it's less dire than you think. BP nominees usually score well in techs too. So if we see Capote there it's not too outlandish to consider it's very well done sound, cinematography, and editing in the mix too.
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