So the DGA chose the following five:
GEORGE CLOONEY, Good Night, and Good Luck.
PAUL HAGGIS, Crash
ANG LEE, Brokeback Mountain
BENNETT MILLER, Capote
STEVEN SPIELBERG, Munich
So I was both horribly right (very confident that Haggis would place) and horribly wrong (equally confident that Miller would not). Which is the way this season is going.
Officially dead again
Cinderella Man. If these Howard lovers didn't go there. Not gonna happen. Period.
Also quite dead and buried
King Kong As I always suspected they've had their Jackson fill for awhile after the 11 Oscar sweep just two years back.
Officially a huge threat for multiple nods despite not seeming all that Oscary initially
Capote.
Officially as strong as I've been saying for months
Crash.
Another thing I've been saying all year:
December is not always a good time to release Oscar hopefuls. In some cases it's downright stupid.
Officially hard to read all of a sudden:
Walk the Line. It has all the Oscar elements, plus it's a hit. The SAG ensemble snub is not really a snub. But the combo of no DGA and no WGA might mean sayonara. Submarined by memories of Ray perhaps? Which is weird since it's better.
Officially hard to read pt. 2
Munich. Shunned by GG, SAG, PGA, AND WGA only to show up here, the most predictive Oscar bellwether. Where is the support coming from?
Officially certifiable?
I still think Cronenberg could get an Oscar nomination.
Thursday, January 05, 2006
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11 comments:
Congrats to the directors for being as boring as the actors. Do these little groups throw gatherings to decide the level of dullness or what?
Please nominate David Cronenberg for Best Director.
You said its weird that WTL isn't doing as well as Ray. Well, it isn't generating the type of buzz that Jamie Foxx did. Really, what do people love about WTL? Why, apart from box office numbers, is everyone saying its safe?
I always think of Almost Famous in these instances -- hit every precursor imaginable (DGA, PGA, SAG, WGA, even won the m/c Globe). Still got snubbed. For effing Chocolat. [Bitter? Me? Hell to the no!]
So Capote and Crash are not necessarily stone cold yet. Though, unfortunately, it's probably Capote that is less locked at this point. Dammit.
People love Reese Witherspoon in Walk the Line.
And really, the only surprising snub is DGA, which means little, since Mangold was never expected to make the director list anyway. The WGA snub is a little bit worrying, but not really. The screenplay was never the selling point. And I never expected it to make SAG ensemble, since it's really just about the two leads.
Walk The Line will be one of quite possibly two best picture nominees without a director nom. I think it's quite safe still. People get so in a tizzy about a little DGA snub... it's really no reason to abandon the film entirely.
It is the only one with significant box office, the only big studio film, the only really oscary film, the only poticially safe film, and it has two huge performances behind it. And it's probably winning the M/C globe. If it loses the globe, I'll get a little scared. But till then, no.
I'd say it's:
1) Brokeback Mountain
2) GNaGL
3) Crash
4) Walk the Line
5) Capote or Munich, or perhaps something else entirely... very tough all, this one... I still don't see Capote as a pic nominee...
If WtL misses in picture somehow, though, Reese might not be winning. I think a lot of her potential to win hinges on the best pic nom.
Capote will not be a best picture nominee. It's altogether too un-AMPAS. Crash, like you say, will be. It's the most AMPAS-friendly of any 2005 release. Cronenberg and Woody (for screenplay) will make the cut.
Why is it the most AMPAS-friendly? More than GN&GL? More than Walk the Line? I don't think so.
Yeah, I can't help but hold onto Cronenberg as well.
very interesting. Walk the Line will have made $100mil by the time nominees are announced. THe next highest possibility will be around the $35mil mark that movies like The Constant Gardener made. That's why people think it's safe.
I still don't think Capote can do it. It doesn't seem to have any of the calling cards of a small art film that can make the final five. No important issue, no big box office ($10mil atm) and only a big performance to hang its hat off and that's hasn't helped in the past.
Everyone compares Walk the Line with last year's Ray (and for obvious reasons), but Phoenix is not getting the buzz that Foxx did (not a single precurser award). I believe that Capote is more attuned toward grabbing that "Ray" slot in the top five, with Hoffman's performance pushing it over the top. It is a much better film than Walk the Line (and Ray).
Overall, it's down to a six way race, just like last year, but at this point I would have to say Walk the Line plays teh Hotel Rwanda card and loses out.
Capote should not be included with Best Director or Picture... Cronenberg has been way too overlooked... hope for a surprise for him in the Oscar race.
Cronenberg was inneligable from the DGA apparently because he's not a member. Same for Meirelles apparently.
But that's Dave Poland speaking, so...
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