Saturday, January 21, 2006
Oscar Predictions
The pre-nomination campaigning for Oscar is over. Voting is now closed. Nothing else can possibly affect the outcome of the nominations. I haven't updated the Oscar pages for two weeks so starting tomorrow each page will be updated with my final predictions (might take a few days). Cross your fingers for your favorites. Nominations are announced on Tuesday morning, January 31st.
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6 comments:
ooh, the anticipation is so thrilling, but also disheartening. Knowing that several great things will be ignored. Ziyi in 2046. Pride & Prejudice for adapted screenplay. And I have a feeling Jake Gyllenhaal isn't gonna make it. eep.
weird. i just said "eep" to someone else moments ago.
it's getting very twilight zone in here.
I too am fearing a snub for Jake. I just think he might go the way of ScarJo in LiT. Other awards groups have been relucant to go for him in supporting. SAG did, but they were forced to vote for him there and there only. I have a feeling he could miss it due to their rejecting his classification. And part of me hopes so, cause it is kind of silly and fraudulent. There is a slight rationale in terms of it being a subject/object, less complex role thing, and slightly less screentime, it really being about Ennis etc. but please, Leo in Titanic wasn't put in supporting to boost his chances, and people never would've bought it (though Leo was the "top"). So it makes me wonder if people will buy this.
But...
(SPOILER ahead if you don't know BBM)
... Jack does die as a martyr to the cause of ending bigotry, so they might jump at the chance to nominate him. Oscar does love dead victimized gay men.
**CONTINUING THE SPOILER**
But compared to Ennis, Jack Twist is a much less internally frustrated young man. He is the initiator, he goes south of the border to pick up prostitutes, and it could be said that he is an extremely unlikable character who never did love his wife one bit (unlike Ennis who did, but not in the way a hetero man loves his wife). Plus, Jake is young and AMPAS loves their supporting men older. Preferable dying.
Plus, Jack doesn't die via AIDS or something, so...
**END OF SPOILER** (do we really need them though? lol - i haven't seen the movie but I've read the story and peoples comments so it's not like i'm ruining it for myself)
BTW Nat, found an interesting article
http://www.nytimes.com/2006/01/22/movies/22kauf.html
I sent that e-mail to you a while back and you've done posts on it before (including the opening of your Best of 2005 piece). Nice to see others acknowledging it. Such a shame.
So... the sound editors have nominated a total of 33 movies. Will that affect your predictions any? I'll all three Sound F/X Editing and all five Sound nominees will be on that list, eh? At least that indicates they have no intention of being used by Oscar prognosticators.
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