And the final piece of the puzzle for figuring out Oscar's acting categories has been put into place...Best Ensemble
Brokeback Mountain
Capote
Crash
Good Night, and Good Luck
Hustle & Flow
* Good news for Capote
* Cool! Hustle & Flow
* Snubs that sting Squid and Whale
Best Actor
Russell Crowe, Cinderella Man
Phillip Seymour Hoffman, Capote
Heath Ledger, Brokeback Mountain
Joaquin Phoenix, Walk the Line
David Strathairn, Good Night, and Good Luck
* Good news for Crowe --which means bad news for more deserving candidates. ARGH
* Snubs that sting: Jeff Daniels Squid and the Whale and Ralph Fiennes Constant Gardener who both really needed this.
Best Actress
Judi Dench, Mrs Henderson Presents
Felicity Huffman, Transamerica
Charlize Theron, North Country
Reese Witherspoon, Walk the Line
Ziyi Zhang, Memoirs of a Geisha
* Good news for Zhang --which means bad news for more deserving candidates. ARGH!
* Snubs that sting: Joan Allen The Upside of Anger and Keira Knightley Pride & Prejudice
Best Supporting Actor
Don Cheadle, Crash
George Clooney, Syriana
Matt Dillon, Crash
Paul Giamatti, Cinderella Man
Jake Gyllenhaal, Brokeback Mountain
* Good news for Crash --managed to get two guys in there.
* Snubs that sting: Frank Langella Good Night and Good Luck and Donald SutherlandPride & Prejudice since SAG likes the vets this was their best chance to get in the game.
Best Supporting Actress
Amy Adams, Junebug
Catherine Keener, Capote
Frances McDormand, North Country
Rachel Weisz Constant Gardener
Michelle Williams, Brokeback Mountain
* Good news for Amy Adams Junebug --I thought this was too small to make it to SAG or Oscar
* Snubs that sting: Maria Bello A History of Violence and Shirley Maclaine In Her Shoes
BIGGEST GAINER TODAY: CAPOTE
BIGGEST LOSERS: A HISTORY OF VIOLENCE & THE SQUID AND THE WHALE
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23 comments:
So... I guess we still don't know much ha?
i know. I LOVE how difficult this year is. i'll update all my predix tomorrow but for now I need to observe and think on it.
Well.
I hate that Crowe and Theron made it in. I really wasn't expecting it. I wonder why they're hanging onto Ziyi, since they didn't nominate Gong. Maybe it's her time. Walk the Line's ensemble snub I guess gives Dench more hope at the globe.
I suspect Maria Bello's snub is category split, and my guess is more will go to supporting in that time. I would say that the race is between Michelle Williams and Rachel Weisz. Delighted for Amy Adams.
Disappointed Hoskins was snubbed. Cheadle instead of Howard?
I think these nominations were very safe, apart from 1 or 2 very random choices. I love that its so unpredictable. Hope the winners will be that way too :)
you can't have category split at SAG though because they aren't allowed to choose which category in which to vote for someone. SAG's rule is that the studio decides.
The Oscar voters are free to put the names wherever they want.
So this is very bad news for Maria Bello. which makes me super angry. but oh well...
But doesn't SAG seem to leave out at least one "sure thing" every year? I say she still gets in. Supporting Actress is such a fab category this year. I could definitely see the Globes, SAG, and Oscar each having a different winner.
I was a little saddened that Keira got snubbed. And WTF with Russell Crowe?
My biggest complaint is the no-show of Joan Allen in favor of Charlize and Ziyi. However, Nathaniel is shaping up to be right: In a year of strong comedic performances they are finding a way to skew dramatic. Nleh.
This proves that actors are dumb.
North Country? Crash? Cinderella Man? Memoirs of a Geisha?
Yikes.
Or that they all truly aspire to star in earnest, "important" dramas?
Oh.. Well in that case, it's a strange omission. I still don't think she's out though.
I agree with you that it's like 2003 actress. I really don't think Theron will make it, and I'm very doubtful about Ziyi. I also agree with Joe about the supp actress. The globe could go to Weisz, SAG to Keener, Oscar to Williams. It's very possible.
I was thinking Globe to ScarJo, SAG to Williams, Oscar to Bello/Weisz, but there are tons of permutations.
I was thinking globe to ScarJo, SAG maybe to Weisz? And oscar to Weisz/Bello/Williams. I do think they'll all go different ways.
I've long thought of Williams as a possible surprise oscar winner, which I still think she may be. I think the actual oscar race is between Bello, Weisz and Williams now.
I also agree on the Supporting Actress split (I believe the same thing happened in 1998). The Globes go ScarJo, the SAGs for Weisz (more actorly), and the Oscars with Williams.
I can't stand that Charlize is scoring so much here-did they not see Joan Allen, Naomi Watts, etc? Unfortunately, I think she's in after this-you can't ignore this many precursors...
I seriously think now that the oscar lineup might be Huffman/Witherspoon/Dench/Theron/Allen.
I always saw Keira having some trouble. And I never saw Zhang making it in.
I still don't see Theron making it, but it's a very close call there. It just feels too "what is North Country?" to me. That film has vanished and SAG would've voted around the time this movie was coming out and was all popular. Same goes for Zhang Ziyi.
Odd that Hustle & Flow got an Ensemble nod but no Terrance Howard solo nod.
Way to go to Amy Adams who I've been predicting for a while. I don't know why. And after a lull, my belief that Crash was heading towards a nod in one of the big two (way back in, like, August) is finally starting to look much more likely.
Not to get all know-it-allsy, but the SAG ballots were mailed on 12/2 and due by this past Tuesday (acoording to Oscarwatch). North Country had already come and gone well before that, so it wasn't "coming out and all popular" when SAG voted. So something has kept Charlize and McDormand in voters' minds. Somebody seems to like them. They're not locks, but I think the idea that they don't have any real support has been debunked several times by now.
oh okay - i didn't know that (i can't be fugged researching, ya know). It seems now though that one of them is keeping the other alive. Much like a leech - one is attaching itself and not letting go. Is it Frances to Charlize, or vice versa? Will they both get into Oscar or both miss? Hmm... intriguing.
And you know what i've just realised. Ann Hathaway is this year's Sandra Oh! She's the fourth member of a predominately four-member cast all of whom are winning awards except for her. And not through lack of performance (apparently) i suppose, it's just that Michelle Williams is getting all the attention ala Virginia Madsen.
Which means Hathaway will go on to star in a medical drama and get nominated for Emmys and SAGs galore in no time...
Rob
Where are the SAG nominations for A History of Violence? They had to be Best Ensemble and Best Supporting Actress at least! Actors can't estimate their colleagues. Dear members of Academy, remember this: Dave Cronenberg deserves the nomination! And Maria Bello and the screenplay too!
I've loved certain deciasions SAG has made in the past-- they were the only awards body to breathe life into the flailing THE STATION AGENT last year, buoying my hopes that the one Peter Dinklage would secure a Best Actor berth (but alas.) They were also tremendously kind to Patricia Clarkson that same year; although the fact that STATION AGENT got an ensemble nom then, but SQUID & WHALE couldn't secure one now is a bit disconcerting, although I'm thrilled for HUSTLE & FLOW, which is where I imagine all that idiosyncratic energy went (try as I might to register compliants against it, I love this movie; see also CRASH.)
At the time, I was so happy with the Clarkson and Dinklage decisions that I developed a mental picture of SAG as one of the more inspired awards voting bodies, but I'm just now perusing their awards history and one has to journey back to nominations for Billy Connolly in 1997 (not a superb performance, but I have a soft spot for him something fierce) and the co-leads in UNHOOK THE STARS in 1996 to find any similarly out-of-the-ordinary good calls. They've seldom made any other exciting decisions in the past ten years IMHO- more regularly, they're the inaugurators of wack nominating trends, as per Ethan Hawke's coming out of nowhere to nab the extraordinary Steve Buscemi's 2001 Supporting Actor Oscar slot after they gave him a push. Overall there's no reason to be particularly thrilled about any of the selections they've made this year. I'm hesitant to even mention the names of certain folks I'd like to see nominated, for fear they'll be jinxed!
I understand that the flavour-of-the-month popularity contest that the Oscars amount to means we place altogether too much stock in them, 'cause of how seldom they reward genuinely affecting art and blah blah blah-- but more than that there's a sense of history, of an Oscar nom securing someone a place in the record books, that makes me so actively engaged in rooting for or booing certain decisions AMPAS makes.
(That's why I've over the moon about the new ever-so-slightly idioyncratic slant of many of their decisions in the past two years: Djimon Hounsou and Shohreh Aghdashloo in particular, but also Ken Watanabe, Imelda Staunton, and affirmation of their appreciation for folks like Del Toro and Samantha Morton. Even when they've nominated a beloved performer of mine for weaker-calibre work (Naomi Watts or Patricia Clarkson), I can't help but be overjoyed given that they, a body the names selected by which get bronze-casted and enshrined in the history books, have been thinking recently, in just the right numbers, about performers who really belong in them books. Perhaps I'm making too much of a hullabaloo over it, given they've always made good decisions in small numbers and that-- but somehow, over the past two years, the Academy's sensibilities are approximating 'thoughtful' in a way that means more to me than it ever did. Which makes it doubly disappointing that this business didn't start in full force in 2001, when folks like Buscemi, Watts, Brian Cox, Tilda Swinton, and Charlotte Rampling-- who might've scored berths if the Academy had gotten wiser, earlier- needed support, and now seem like they might've gotten it from the same folks who forced Billy Crystal to pronounce the names "Aghdashloo" and "Hounsou" on Oscar night.
theophilus --word!
I totally agree. There is a belief out there, you know,that actors are essentially a stupid breed and more susceptible to things like campaigning and gimmicks than other awards bodies. Knowing only a dozen or so actors I have no way of verifying if this is true of them as a "group" but that's what ya hear.
and it's certainly true that they go all ga-ga over actorly hooks that are really makeup achievements --too numerous to mention.
What a great site
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