Film Experience Blog: Statistics

Tuesday, January 31, 2006

Statistics

FWIW. My scores Oscar prediction-wise 85% of the main categories * 87% if you include the techs * 79% of EVERYTHING. (that's if you include the things that very few predict like foreign, documentary, shorts, etc... everything). The crazy thing about spending so much time Oscar prognosticating is I correctly foresaw 28% of all nominations when I did my "year in advance" predix. Not too shabby. There's one category Visual Effects when my guess was better one year ago than it was after seeing all the films. Ha ha.

I'm afraid of me.

14 comments:

Glenn Dunks said...: I haven't calculated mine, but i probably did really bad because I got bored and went overboard with crazy bonkers nominations.

However, is it time to call the effects category a farce? NARNIA? And as little as I liked the film, Star Wars' snub here is quite frankly the strangest miss of the day.; 3:23 AM
Glenn Dunks said...: Okay, here are my scores.

Of the big 8 I scored 75% - but as I said, I went bonkers.

Of the rest excluding doco, animated, shorts, i got 68%.

When you include doco, animated and animated short (i didn't predict doco short or live action short) then I got 67 correct from 100 which is 67% obviously.

I did alright considering people like Javier had thought I'd gone "insane"!; 3:37 AM
OhMyTrill said...: good job.; 8:11 AM
John T said...: I believe I got 85 in the big eight and 74 in the rest of the categories (my math's a little rusty)-overall a good year for me.

Also, I have to agree on the Star Wars snub for Visual Effects (and this is a film I would NOT normally say should be called out for the Oscars)-it deserved a Visual Effects nod over Narnia (I would have been happy had the much-improved HP4 gotten the nod, but Narnia, a fine if bland film-I don't think so).; 9:44 AM
Anonymous said...: For the award tallies, you've got only 2 for Cinderella Man, when its really 3. Supporting Actor, Makeup and Editing.; 12:00 PM
adam k. said...: Narnia REALLY didn't deserve the visual effects nod. The Star Wars effects were far superior, as were the harry Potter effects... and both those films were higher grossers than Narnia anyway, so what gives?

The effects were just totally distracting the whole time. I could not bring myself to care about those goddamn beavers and wolves. Aside from the "Aslan's sacrifice" scene and other occasional fun with Tilda Swinton, that whole movie was a big bore (and I was a fan of the books as a kid).; 2:43 PM
Anonymous said...: How about the statistic that only 1 film that won Best Picture in the past 25 years but wasn't nominated for Best Film Editing? Uh huh... Brokeback's going down and thank God for that. It is BEYOND overrated.; 3:49 PM
Glenn Dunks said...: Wow, i can't believe I'm saying this THREE posts in a row, but... it's always the anonymous people who are the snarkiest around here. GET YOURSELF A NAME, JACKASS!

omg, whatever.

Narnia was shite, as was Star Wars but at least Star Wars was way more pretty to look at.; 6:03 AM
Anonymous said...: So Kamikaze? Who cares? My statistics are solid. A movie that won Best Picture must get an Editing nod. The last time this occured was for Ordinary People.

Watch Crash take home the top honor Oscar night. Just watch.; 1:29 PM
adam k. said...: It may be somewhat close now, but Crash is NOT winning. The editing snub was a weird fluke. The "film with most noms winning" stat is also pretty solid btw, so Crash has quite the uphill battle there.

This does provide a little bit of suspense, though, which is kind of fun. Crash is clearly THE only threat now, but how big of a threat? Not too big.; 11:52 PM
Glenn Dunks said...: Yeah, if that's the case the race is between Crash and Munich.; 2:17 AM
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Anonymous said...: !!!ya!!!ya!!However, is it time to call the effects category a farce? NARNIA? And as little as I liked the film, Star Wars' snub here is quite frankly the strangest miss of the day.; 7:53 PM
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