Read the predix and discuss. Agree. Disagree? I think the important categories to watch in terms of Oscar are Best Actor Drama (I'm not entirely convinced that Forest Whitaker isn't just a critics darling --this'll tell us if he can actually make a run for the Oscar against Peter O'Toole) and obviously Best Supporting Actor since it's been the most confusing category this year.
Another note for you Globe revellers... ModFab is hosting a live chat starting at 7:45 PM on Monday night which I'll be popping into briefly. And for those who've been missing the comic stylings of Joe Reid --we'll be doing a post-show discussion for your reading pleasure like we did last year)
I'll post three or four FB Awards tomorrow for sure. Thanks for your patience!
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32 comments:
GO JHUD!
yea for upsets!
And why not...
the nominees for this years awards are cookie-cutter...
so maybe the winners can be a little more surprising from this point forward?
I agree that Little Miss Sunshine could win, and yet... you'd think it would've gotten more noms. Why didn't they nominate its screenplay? Why didn't they nominate Greg Kinnear in best actor? They chose Ejiofor over him? Makes me feel like they don't love the film.
And since it looks like JHud, Eddie, and Beyoncé's song will all win, it seems the film's along for the ride, no? It makes me feel better at least that Beyoncé will almost certainly lose best actress; Dreamgirls can't win all five awards.
And I'm feeling for some reason that Babel will win best picture. I mean, why wouldn't it? They like to split up the wins. Scorsese for director is enough.
My no guts/no glory pick will probably be an upset in screenplay. The globes have thrown this award to some really random things in past years, so I see no reason why a win for Notes on a Scandal or Little Children should be ruled out.
Interesting. Conventional with doubts. Good predicts. Here what I think:
BEST PICTURE, DRAMA: Babel or The Departed. I can't figure out who they're gonna honour. It could be Babel because it got the most nominations, like Brokeback Mountain, and the fact it is all over the globe. But The Departed is the frontrunner. I'm gonna go out on a limb and say Babel.
BEST PICTURE, MUSICAL OR COMEDY: Dreamgirls. I really don't think Little Miss Sunshine is going to win. It a very good chance, but I don't think so.
BEST ACTOR, DRAMA: Forest Whitaker has a better chance, I think. He'll win. I guarentee it!*
(*-Guarentee void on planet Earth-*)
BEST ACTRESS, DRAMA: What do you think?
BEST ACTOR, MUSICAL OR COMEDY: As sad as it is to say, I have to say Sacha Baron Cohen. I'll be intensly happy with Eckhart, but it just diesn't seem likely. [sighs] Oy.
BEST ACTRESS, MUSICAL OR COMEDY: The winner will be... Beyoncé. [laughs out loud!!!] Oh god, that's funny. Streep beyond doubt.
BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR: Murphy. No doubt. But buzz could die. No, still thinking Mushu will win.
BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS: You're expecting me to say Hudson, aren't you? Well, I am. But this is more of a paranoia state then M/C Picture. I keep having this gut feeling that Kikuchi will steal it. If she does, oh boy, I'll be happy. But my brain doubts it A LOT.
BEST DIRECTOR: Scorsese. Eastwood = vote split. No one can contend.
BEST SCREENPLAY: Babel vs. The Queen. Again, I say Babel. It seems like something they're going to reward. The thing that shocks me the most here is that Little Miss Sunshine! (?!?!?!?!?)
QUICKIES:
BEST ANIMATED FILM: Cars
BEST FOREIGN LANGUAGE FILM: Pan's Labyrinth
BEST ORIGINAL SCORE: Gustavo Santaolalla for Babel
BEST ORIGINAL SONG: "Listen" from Dreamgirls\
That's it. Wow. I am going to suck tomorrow.
Both "Little Miss Sunshine" and Will Smith will win at the Globes and go on to win at the Oscars.
Especially Smith. I can't see how it isn't staring people in the face.
And, "Jack", if that is your real name, Will Smith has won nothing. The basic law of Oscar is: The winners of major awards must win something before the Oscars.
Hell, even Crash won the Chicago critics (basically the Ebert Awards).
Little Miss Sunshine has more of a chance to win than Smith.
It'll be Idi Amin. Or Lawrence of Arabia. Either way, it's not the Fresh Prince. Great performance, but not an Oscar-winning one.
"The Pursuit Of Happyness" was a big hit (over $100million) and that was all because of Will Smith, and he's popular.
He'll win the Globe and the SAG and then he will have won something before the Oscars.
Then he'll win that aswell.
Guess what was also a big hit? The Departed. More people would feel better voting for DiCaprio here than Smith, since LeDiCa has proven he can act more than once before this. Smith only had Ali. DiCaprio had a few thing, especially The Aviator, which he won here two years.
Smith won't win sh*t. Or at least anything important.
DiCaprio won't win. He should, as 2006 will go down as the year that he finally REALLY became the actor that everyone had been predicting since "Gilbert Grape" (you could say that that happened in 2004, but "The Aviator" wasn't quite enough).
However, he doesn't seem like enough of the main character in "The Departed" to win an Oscar for the lead role in it. He has to share too much time with Damon and Nicholson.
"The Pursuit Of Happyness" is all about Will Smith, and it was a hit, and it is the kind of safe choice that the Academy love (which "The Departed" isn't) and he's very popular.
The Globes will give it to him because he's a star, SAG will give it to him because he's popular, Oscar will give it to him for all those reasons.
Plus, just a side not - two actors who I know won Oscar without a critic award:
1997 - Robin Williams for "Good Will Hunting" (SAG win; Satellite and Globe nomination)
1998 - James Coburn for "Affliction" (SAG nomination)
I did not see any greatness in Smith's performance, if only Jackman was in this list then it would be more interesting.
My horses: Leonardo diCaprio, Jennifer Hudson, The Departed, Meryl Streep
go go go
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Um, how is The Departed not Oscar safe?
It's the frontrunner for Best Picture!!!!!!!!!!!
The Pursuit of Happyness' only nomination will be Best Actor, but it won't win. And I never said DiCaprio will win. I said Whitaker will win. He WILL.
Switcheroo: Peter O'Toole.
Smith won't win. The nomination is basically a lock, and I actually gave it my personal silver medal, above DiCaprio!
But he won't win. Of probable nominees [that I've seen], he is my vote. BUT HE WON'T WIN!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
Isn't SAG an award?
It used to be.
I SAID AWARD AT ALL.
And James Coburn was a pity Oscar, like John Wayne edging out Dustin Hoffman (Mightnight Cowboy) for True Grit.
You're just not getting it.
Whitaker has the most of any Best Actor competitor this year, seconding by O'Toole or Gosling.
Smith has GG & SAG noms. That's enough for a nom, but NOT A WIN!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
Forest Whitaker will become the third person from Fast Times at Ridgemont High to have an Oscar. Nicolas Cage and Sean Penn are the others.
IDI AMIN, not CHRIS GARDNER.
I want Blunt to win.
...please?
:(
*sighs*
But JHud was magnificent. Honestly, any of those supporting actresses could win and I'd be happy for them, all were impressive. I'm anxiously looking forward to Streep's speech, simply because whenever that woman takes the podium, poetry is spread throughout the room.
I <3 her.
(And while Whitaker was good in 'Last King', I'm still rooting for a DiCaprio knockout. One can hope.)
I think best actor is really a tight tight tight 3-way race. I feel very strongly that Smith will win the SAG, because everyone's seen his movie. Literally about 50X more people have seen his movie than Forest's and Peter's combined. Whitaker seems likely for the globe cause he's on a streak now. But they could honor Will. Or they could be all "give him the oscar!" and honor O'Toole (they of course did that for Marty in 2002, though it didn't work).
Really tough to say. But I think Smith will take the SAG and thus become a contender.
I would be shocked if Babel wins Best Picture. It's for The Departed all the way. If not that, then The Queen. Babel doesn't have the mainstream support that's needed at the Globes (or at the Oscars, for that matter) to go all the way. It's the Cold Mountain of this group.
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just had to do that :)
I think Will Smith will have his Oscar one day, but I don't see it being this year. In terms of international BO draw, he's up there with Tom Cruise. For really big BO stars, I think there can be a perception that their megastar status is its own reward. He may rack up another nom, but will probably have to wait for his own Erin Brockovich before he gets a win.
By "his own Erin Brockovich", I mean a starring vehicle that gets multiple noms including Best Picture and is Dramatic, but also plays to the strengths that make him so popular (including his charisma and comedic ability).
Julia Roberts got to play a real character without sacrificing her looks or her charm or her "megawatt smile" so people could still enjoy EB as a Julia Roberts movie not as a desperate "give me an Oscar" Acting-with-a-capital-A showcase.
BEST DRAMA: "The Queen" /I would be surprised to see "The Departed" winning. In fact, I also predict "The Queen" to win best picture at AMPAS/
BEST COMEDY/MUSICAL: "Little Miss Sunshine"; I don't think "Dreamgils" caught as much fire, many people dislike it;
BEST ACTRESS, DRAMA: Helen Mirren
BEST ACTOR, DRAMA: Forest Whitaker
BEST ACTRESS, COMEDY: Meryl Streep
BEST ACTOR, COMEDY: Sacha Baron Cohern
BEST SCREENPLAY: Patrick Marber "The Queen"
BEST DIRECTOR: Martin Scorseese
BEST SCORE: Gustavo Santaolalla /and that's probably the safest bet, I think, even over Mirren. Globes haven't awarded Kate Winslet yet and they might./
BEST SONG: "Listen"
BEST FOREIGN FILM: "Pan's Labyrinth" because I don't think they are silly enough to give 'foreign' award to an American film
BEST ANIMATED FILM: "Happy feet" but if they nominated "Monster House", maybe they have actually seen it? And if they have, maybe they have noticed how strong it is. In fact I don't give a damn about this category but I know you'd be happy to see "Monster House" winning.
PicD - The Queen
PicMC - Dreamgirls (as Adam said, I'd predict Little Miss Sunshine if it had more than one more nomination)
Dir - Scorsese
ActD - Whitaker
ActrD - Mirren
ActCM - Cohen
ActrCM - Streep
SuppAct - Murphy
SuppActr - Hudson
Screenplay - The Queen
Score - The Painted Veil (for shits and giggles)
My No Guts No Glory pick is, obviously, Babel going home empty handed, although it could easily take home at least 3 awards or more. I also really wanna predict Ben Affleck for some reason, but...
J.D. Judge, you said:
"Will Smith has won nothing. The basic law of Oscar is: The winners of major awards must win something before the Oscars.
Hell, even Crash won the Chicago critics (basically the Ebert Awards)."
And I was merely pointing out that at this point in 1998 and 1999, Robin Williams and James Coburn hadn't won anything either.
In fact, Robin Williams is a perfect comparison. Burt Reynolds (who was the Whitaker/O'Toole of the year) was winning everything in sight at this point, and the critics weren't even nominating Williams, but come the Globes and the SAG, he suddenly appeared like a winner, because of his popularity and the fact that his film was a hit and that he hadn't won before.
It isn't that I "don't get it", it's that I'm looking at this from Oscar's perspective.
When was the last time Best Actor was won by someone in a small, little-seen but critically loved film that wasn't nominated for Best Picture? That would be Nicholas Cage in 1995, and even "Leaving Las Vegas" was being talked up for a Picture nomination, so if you don't count that, the last time was Jeremy Irons in 1990.
What I'm saying is, for the last 16 years (or 11 if you're starting from "Leaving Las Vegas"), Best Actor has gone to either someone from a Best Picture nominee, or a big movie star (aka Tom Hanks for "Philadelphia" or Denzel Washington for "Training Day").
Whitaker and O'Toole just don't seem like they're going to happen. Based on the last few years, it will be DiCaprio or Smith, and my money's on Smith. The Globe and the SAG will turn it around for him.
i agree that Smith is still a "win" threat. I'm hoping the Globes don't jumpstart a final sprint.
I liked the performance actually and I also thought he was strong in Ali but I don't think it's in any way superior to any of the people he'd be beating. None of them in fact. It'd be a case of worst nominated performance winning (again not that it's bad just not up to the level of DiCaprio, OToole, Whitaker, Gosling, etc...)
Don't you think that Hellen Mirren could win the Globe for Elizabeth I (television), thus leaving the field open for Kate Winslet (or even Penelope Cruz) to win best actress? I think it is a possibility.
I'm calling it now: Babel gets nothing.
I don't think they are so cruel; "Babel" will get Globe for original score.
And, well, nothing more. Even if Hudson doesn't make it, the Globe goes to Blunt /not Blanchett/
I'll die of happiness if Cruz or Winslet will get this.
" Don't you think that Hellen Mirren could win the Globe for Elizabeth I (television), thus leaving the field open for Kate Winslet (or even Penelope Cruz) to win best actress? I think it is a possibility. "
She'll win both. There is nothing that says she can't. It would be a nice surprise if Winslet (whom I've been rooting for since Titanic) or Cruz would win, but the chances of that happening are at least 100:1. Mirren will win both.
It's a possibility, but incredibly slim.
i'd agree with judge here. if we've learned anything from the history of awards is that when someone is that year's "it" person no amount of prizes are enough. look at that completely unneccesary double nom for Jamie Foxx at the Oscars in 2004. all because they couldn't get enough of him that year.
the Globes are like that too: see She Who Must Not Be Named's incredible streak of nominations.
If Mirren wasn't up against herself in the TV category I'd say she would win for all three nominations.
For some reason, I just can't see Hudson or Murphy winning. I'm saying Barazza and Pitt, don't ask me why.
And I have a sneaky feeling "The Queen" will win, even though I'm rooting for The Departed.
Maybe Mirren will tie with herself in TV actress and thus win all three awards.
I think that Babel has more of a chance to win Picture this year. But, as I predicted Babel to upset, The Departed seems more likely. I still stand by Babel.
GO RINKO!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
Nevermind - JHud won.
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