Given that the Oscar race is looking so tight in Best Picture I'm assuming the technical categories are volatile as well. Can Dreamgirls really lose best song? Do you think I'm in tune or out of key with these predictions? Discuss.
Monday, February 19, 2007
Do They Hear What We Hear?
With just six days to go until Hollywood's High Holy Night it's time to finalize predictions. Herewith my quick take on Oscar's aural categories
Given that the Oscar race is looking so tight in Best Picture I'm assuming the technical categories are volatile as well. Can Dreamgirls really lose best song? Do you think I'm in tune or out of key with these predictions? Discuss.
Given that the Oscar race is looking so tight in Best Picture I'm assuming the technical categories are volatile as well. Can Dreamgirls really lose best song? Do you think I'm in tune or out of key with these predictions? Discuss.
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I think you're pretty much right on there. My only concern for Melissa would be that the film will get reward elsewhere (Docu Feature), so that may remove the global-friendly liberal itch. Consequently, I think "Listen" will take it.
Rob
Won't the three song from Dreamgirls split the votes? ... I've been thinking about this, although "Listen" does seem like the strongest... I just don't see either Cars nor An Inconvinient Truth winning...
I think you're right that Etheridge takes the song, Dreamgirls takes Sound Mixing and Desplat takes the score (I'm so happy he's going to get an Oscar I don't care that he'll beat Glass, who is my favorite.)
However, I am betting on Letters from Iwo Jima for Sound Editing (and I know as much as you do about the differences between the two.)
I really think, at this point, that it's "Listen"'s Oscar to lose. "Love You I Do" and "Patience" are both great songs, but they lack the build up that "Listen" has been getting and will consequently cancel each other out. No one has heard the Cars song, so "Listen"'s only major competition is Melissa Ethridge---and I don't think that's going to be enough to stop her.
It's really a shame that the Academy didn't include Beyonce in the nominations for "Listen". It's her best contribution to the film. Did Henry Kreiger really need all three of those nominations?
I'm just excited that Melissa may be performing (is there confirmation? i haven't been following) she's SO great live. I've only seen her in concert once but it was just freaking amazing, the sort of crowd power she has. That wouldn't translate exactly televised of course but she definitely has a gift with live performance and connecting with the crowd.
Yeah I think Dreamgirls is winning both sound and song. Films with three nominations in the category always win, generally because two of the songs are usually "filler" type noms and cancel each other out, while the third (Listen) screams WINNER!
Plus Inconvenient Truth will win documentary and one oscar will be enough. But I agree that it'll be close.
As for score, I'm predicting Pan's Labyrinth, I think. I just don't see how anyone would vote for The Queen here. It's SO nothing, especially if you've ever heard anything else by Desplat. And I think all the Queen's love will be focused on Helen. Newman could win, but that score is not really special either.
Pan's has that hummable, identifiable central theme that often signals a win here (like with Brokeback last year). But this one's also gonna be close.
Yeah I forgot to say, I agree that Letters will win sound editing. Never underestimate the lone best picture nominee.
I just don't see them awarding Pirates over it. Visaul FX is enough.
"Did Henry Kreiger really need all three of those nominations?"
Well, if three of the songs from Dreamgirls got nominated, he better get cited for all three songs. He's the original composer of the musical and the composer of the new songs. I'm pretty sure that if he were still alive, Tom Eyen would be the lyricist for all the new songs and not Beyonce.
Is there any chance "Love You I Do" could win Original Song? I mean, if they're voting for Jennifer, why not vote for the song she sings as well? Personally, I prefer this song over "Listen" for the sole fact that it sounds more in the period than "Listen" ever will. "Listen" is very much a contemporary pop song. Beyonce is no longer listed as a songwriter, so I see the song losing steam. Will people know who Siedah Garrett is? And if so, does that mean that "Love You I Do" can win?
I'm not sure...
What would be the "hippest" choice, since that's what the Academy likes to vote for?
~Steven
listen is my least favourite of the nominees; it reminds me of an american idol self-esteem power ballad they force the winner to release
the last two winners in this category have been unexpected; hopefully they'll surprise us again
I'm hoping hoping hoping Etheridge wins this one. Such a great song; it avoids the trap that many "message" songs fall into by being too specific... it's really applicable to almost anything.
I question the strength of the Academy's love for Dreamgirls (genius that I am) since, though it had broad support through many of the branches, it obviously didn't have enough to crack the top five.
It almost seems to me that many of the nominations came from a "well, what else were we going to nominate here?" mindset, and I think that's especially true of the song nominations. They usually make such terrible choices with their nominees that it's almost like they're sleepwalking. So I'm hoping the music branch just nominated three songs because they came from the "powerhouse musical".
Also, I'm not sure I buy the logic that because no film with three nominated songs has ever lost this category, Dreamgirls must be in a similar position. I believe that's only happened twice (with Beauty and the Beast and The Lion King), so I don't think you can use two incidents to establish a pattern.
"No one has heard the Cars song,"
$230million dollars at the box office would suggest otherwise. Whereas An Inconvenient Truth made about $200mil less. Hmm. And consider "Our Town" is featured right smack bam in the middle of Cars and not as a credits-only song (I love how people were all "It's Hard Out Here For A Pimp is essential to the movie and wasn't just over the end credits so it deserved to win" yet they drop that stance when "I Need to Wake Up" is nominated for simply being over the credits. Ugh. I love Melissa though. Just not that movie or the song.)
Newman ain't gonna win it though, neither will "Patience". I have a feeling that "Love You I Do" will actually take it. As Steven suggested it's a song performed by Jennifer and it is very periody and such. However, I think "Listen" will win.
Dreamgirls is gonna take Sound too. Sound Editing though will go to Iwo Jima methinks, simply cause it's the only BP nominee and some people just tick off those sorts.
Score? I don't see them rewarding Santaolalla two years in a row. Instead I think they'll give it to Oscar newcomer Desplat for his BP nominee, but yeah, Navvaro is a big threat. I'll probably change my mind several times before Monday. The Good German? Unfortunately for Newman, it hasn't even made $1.2mil at the box office.
I'm with you on Song, though it is going out on a limb. But a week after I saw Dreamgirls, when the noms came out, I couldn't separate the 3 songs in my mind.
And they passed over Phantom of the Opera for The Motorcycle Diaries, and went for Pimp last year, not to mention Eminem a few years back, so this at least is a category where they don't vote in the expected manner.
Well, those wins actually give credence to a Dreamgirls win because they were all incorporated into the film instead of just being sung over the credits. So, yeah, if people wanna use that argument then they should be cheering for Dreamgirls.
It was good, actually, to see a musical incorporate it's original song into the actual movie, unlike The Phantom of the Opera, The Producers, Chicago.
Exactly what Camel said. Plus, who could pass over "Al Otro Lado Del Rio"? It's such a beautiful song. "Learn to Be Lonely" was boring, even when Beyonce tried to riff it up. The song from The Producers was pointless. And "I Move On" wasn't even written for the movie of Chicago. With three completely incorporated songs from a musical, I think it's Henry Krieger's to lose.
~Steven
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