For those 100+ souls who joined that early bird Actress Psychic Oscar Contest months ago I've updated the point totals here. (I've also added my personal points in per your requests) There's a 5-way tie for the lead currently but expect much shuffling when the fall films hit. We've barely begunSince we last spoke in mid June...
+ 3 Nikki Blonsky (Hairpsray opened + box office pts)
+ 2 Angelina (EW small cover inset + b.o), Danes, Streep & Redgrave (Evening opened + b.o. though the movie met horrid reviews so these will probably be the last points)
+ 1 Blethyn, Hathaway, Lopez, Roberts & Marion Cotillard (pts for opening --the first three, EW small cover inset, and box office respectively)
[related reading: Best Actress Oscar Predictions]
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22 comments:
Why do you give two points for having the world premiere at Toronto, but none for having it at Venice? That seems like an unfair penalty for the movies being shown at both festivals.
the point system is based on Oscar season thingamajigs plus random easy-to-track media stuff. TIFF is now the premiere launching pad (festival-wise) for Oscars. hence the points
but if people enjoy it this year i'll tweak the system next year. it's the trial run.
It's a blast! I'll definitely participate next year too.
My only problem is that I am now semi-rooting for five contenders that I (after having seen some of them) really don't want to be nominated at all :)
once i had the system set up it hasn't been that much of a bear so maybe it can be expanded into more than just Oscars next year so that it's fun before the big season too.
we'll see.
I don't know if you counted but Jennifer Lopez's El Cantante just opened this weekend too. :)
"The Queen" premiered at Venice, no?
... and Vera Drake?
oops. fixed.
anonymous, you are of course correct - those films did premiere at Venice. And Atonement is showing there as well this go-round.
That said, I don't think anyone seriously doubts that Toronto is the biggest launching pad festival towards the oscars. Hollywood certainly treats it that way.
Another way of putting it: of Nathaniel's best picture predictions, all of the top ten are playing at TIFF and eight are premiering there (only the Coens and Atonement were/are elsewhere first).
My point is just that a film having its North American premiere at Toronto (after being shown at Venice the week before) is using Toronto as a launching pad just as much as it would if it wasn't also at Venice.
To take the example of Atonement here. Does being the opening film at Venice and then having a North American premiere at Toronto very soon after really give it less of an Oscar profile than it would have had if there had only been the Toronto presence?
No. But I would argue that Toronto + Venice = Toronto alone. Venice is virtually negligible in the oscar race. It's not like Nathaniel's taking away points for appearing in Venice (which is what you seem to be arguing).
I don't understand all these algoriths well enough to say anything infomred, but it does seem as though the Venice premieres were huge pre-Oscar platforms for Brokeback and Far from Heaven (no wonder Focus is going this route with Atonement, too) and for Vera Drake and The Sea Inside, and I think The Hours also. I don't think Nathaniel should change any of his point system, or that he's even wrong to privilege Toronto, but Hollywood seems to be using Venice much more savvily than they used to (and Venice has been more open to Hollywood and Hollywood-ish product of late).
But Nathaniel is> effectively taking points away for appearing at Venice. Because movies now appearing at both don't get any points while they would have gotten two if they had skipped Venice.
What if a movie opens in January?
Rottentomatoes, you have 85% or higher by January 1st. Isn't Sweeney Todd opening in January?
It's a blast! I'll definitely participate next year too.
My only problem is that I am now semi-rooting for five contenders that I (after having seen some of them) really don't want to be nominated at all :)
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I think it'll be a bit more fun if the contest started in August , 6 months before the nominations, that way people won't feel that way. People will also have a better idea of whast films would be coming out for the rest of the year.
Well, I doubt I'll be anywhere near the top when all is said and done. I totally blew it with Redgrave and Judd.
That being said...I LOVE the contest. I think it came at just the right time of the year also. Too close to Oscar season would probably see everyone picking the same people.
I'd love it though if maybe it expanded to Best Pics and Best Actor too.
I'm pretty sure Sweeney Todd is getting the late Decemeber-limited treatment, and the opening wide the second week of January. I'm pretty sure.
From anonymous@ 6:03: But Nathaniel is> effectively taking points away for appearing at Venice. Because movies now appearing at both don't get any points while they would have gotten two if they had skipped Venice.
I reread his rules, and they don't say that. Under the festival points it says
..
+2 Acting prize at Venice
+2 World Premiere at Toronto (+1 more if film wins audience award)
..
Did he change something, because TIFF + Venice = TIFF (provided no prizes are won).
Nick, I agree (and you forgot The Queen) that distributors are beginning to use Venice with saavy (unlike Toronto, the relatively small number of films allows one or more to stand out more easily, and yeah, Venice is definitely more Hollywood centered than Cannes or Toronto. The prize for Ben Affleck, any one?)
yes sweeney todd is opening in december. if it only opened in january it wouldn't be eligible for the oscar race at all.
even a qualifying release will give it enough reviews to get an RT rating.
and the point system: please remember that this is a rough draft experimental contest. there's no way to test it out but to play it. it will definitely get a tweaking.
You guys should check out this website called, blackfilm.com. It's kind of cool, it gives you the latest news on African Americans in films.
They also have movie reviews and interviews.
They don't only focus on Black Actors and Actresses. They review all films, including Becoming Jane, Rescue Dawn , basically any movie that comes out Wide or Limited.
They've also interviewed just about everyone in Hollywood, Denzel, Kate Winslet, Salma Hayek, Leonardo Dicaprio, Johnny Depp and most recently Matt Damon.
It's not really an Oscar site, per say, but the reviews are pretty decent.
Nat, I hope you do the actors next year.
Arkaan, if a movie is shown at Venice it cannot possibly have its world premiere at Toronto. This means it won't get any points from Toronto and that it will therefor have to win the acting price at Venice in order to just break even.
Anonymous, thanks. I misread that completely. And now I feel really stupid, so I shall slink quietly into my corner.
I'm out....I totally blew it with Jane Fonda. Washington Post, last week, gave JLo a terrific review...in fact most of the review of the movie focused on her.
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