Tuesday, September 18, 2007
still tampering...
...with the updated Oscar race prediction charts. If you see anything I miss (just noticed I hadn't added some Into the Wild and Diving Bell stuff) feel free to comment or send tips.
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10 comments:
Considering that Denmark got in this year for the meh-ish "After the Wedding", their chosen film for this year's Oscars, Peter Schønau Fog's "The Art of Crying" looks very set for a nomination. I've seen it, and it's fab. It has all that Oscar craves as well: Troubled kids, rural landscapes, humor, sadness, and milk.
Seriously. It is very, very good. I wouldn't be surprised to see it beat Romania.
I already sent you an email about Before the Devil Knows Your Dead but ya.
Having seen Lars and the Real Girl, I think it has a very good chance of being a runaway hit. The actors, giving some of the best performaces I've seen this year so far, have a fair shot at a nomination. Gosling has a better chance of getting nominated than anyone on your list after Viggo. Same as Emily Mortimer and Paul Schneider.
The Orphanage has been getting raves.
So I'm very curious how the new foreign nominating process will affect the chances of Persepolis. I think last year's line-up was easily the best this decade. True, the great masterpiece Volver didn't make the cut, but in all fairness, the critics didn't rally behind it like they should have, so while the snub was definately painful, I can see why the final committee didn't feel like it was a big deal to pass it over. So they ended up choosing four really good movies and a so-so Water, which in my opinion is still better than some recent winners. I assume if Persepolis continues to get the raves it's been getting, that final body of 15 will have no problem shortlisting it. It's the broader voting body I'm afraid of. They are so afraid of unconventional stuff, it may be difficult to even break the longlist of nine. I can't believe it, I'm actually rooting for France this year. Strange though, as much as they love to nominate France, they always choose to pass her up when she actually submits something great, like 8 Women.
Yeah, is Romania going with 4m3w2d? Stupid question, but is it official yet?
The Spanish submission will be announced late next week. If they choose The Orphanage, I'm not sure what its chances are for a nomination, being a horror film and all.
vv
Just noticed Cronenberg's low rank in the Director category. Don't you think he could get in due to his fellow directors loving his new movie, just like happened with Lynch back in 2002?
He certainly won't win, but I think he could very well get a nomination this year.
Some comments to think about.
1) Chris Cooper in Breach. His performance received rave reviews, but was this way too far back?
2) I think Viggo Mortenson and Cronenberg can get an extended boost. The film so far seems to be doing well in the press.
3) Ben Foster for supporting nomination in 3:10 to Yuma? I am not sure if his villainous performance will be overshadowed by that of Javier Bardem.
4) I have a suspicion that In the Valley of Elah will be the Flags of Our Fathers this year. Early buzz isn't so great.
What about Michael Cera for Supporting Actor for Juno? Sure everyone's raving about Page, but they compliment him right after they finish with her. Just a suggestion.
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