Sunday, December 16, 2007
Oscar Charts Updated
The long awaited Oscar updates are up at the main site with new commentary in many of the top categories. Too tired for a standard Oscar column tonight and everything gets shaken up again this week with the SAG nominations anyway. But peruse and enjoy. I'd especially like to hear your thoughts on two things: The top eight in Best Picture -how would you order them? And that 5th spot in Best Actress? That's a nail biter, isn't it?
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46 comments:
1. No Country
2. Sweeney
3. Atonement
4. Michael Collins
5. Into the Wild
6. Juno
7. Diving Bell
8. Blood
Actress: Jolie gets the fifth, Adams the fourth.
Your Best Actress predictions seems possible. So does your Best Picture predictions. But your supporting actors choices....John Travolta? Really?
edot, As I and others have said many times - the Academy won't have any connection to Divine's performance in the same role and, like many regular cinema-going folks, probably got a big kick out of seeing their pal John in drag singing and dancing again.
On the matter of your top eight BP I'd say my order would go NCOM, Atonement, Sweeney, Michael Clayton, Into the Wild, There Will be Blood, Diving Bell, Juno. But who knows, really?
Also, Michael Clayton did not get a Golden Globe nom for screenplay (something I predicted, yay me).
Your Best Pic list looks solid, I think.
In a perfect world, I think your Actress list would look as it does, but swap Page for Adams.
Actually, in a perfect world, Linney would be there, too, but it's not looking good.
With best picture I would rank it like this (likeliness to get a nomination, not win):
1. No Country for Old Men
2. Atonement
3. Sweeney Todd
4. Juno
5. The Diving Bell and the Butterfly
6. There Will Be Blood
7. Michael Clayton
8. Juno
I just think that Michael Clayton (despite its success) and Into the Wild are more vulnerable than people think. Michael Clayton is really going to suffer under the preferential vote system that happens at the Oscars. It's a great movie, but I don't know anyone who would say its their favorite movie of the year. That is where films like There Will Be Blood will probably get a big boost. I am just non-plussed about Into the Wild, and its dismal showing at the Globes was not a good sign (especially when there were 7 Best Drama nominees).
For actress, I think Amy Adams will definitely be there and Helena Bonham Carter and Keira Knightley will be duking it out for the final spot. The Academy aren't quite as big starfuckers as the HFPA and also Best Actress Drama was probably the weakest of the major categories. Most of the good female performances this year were in the musical/comedy category.
Also in my best picture list I meant 8. Into the Wild
Vanessa Redgrave was NOT nominated for a Golden Globe.
LINNEY!
Nathaniel, I understand and share your affection for Linney but she doesn't have more chance than Bonham Carter or Blanchett.
By the way, I'm more than glad to see that ONCE finally fell off your top 10. Heh.
I'd swap out Into the Wild (as much as I love it so) for Diving Bell in your Best Pic predictions.
Top 4 in Actress seem right to me (so glad about Jolie and Christie). But that 5th spot, I just don't think they'll go for Knightley - sad to say. I used to think it would be Linney, but now I think Adams and Blanchett have more of a chance for it. Which is unfortunate as those two performances are fading the fastest for me.
Also if anyone's interested about Supporting Actor, there's a great quote from Javier Bardem on Hal Holbrook's imdb page in the comments section. Bardem calls Holbrook's performance in Into the Wild "one of the best performances I've ever seen" and goes on to elucidate. That's especially touching as they'll hopefully be competing against each other at the Oscars.
Here's the link:
http://imdb.com/name/nm0001358/board/nest/91100595
I love that you predict Ronan.
I'm still one of the few that doesn't think Knightley will get nominated, though.
"I just think that Michael Clayton (despite its success) and Into the Wild are more vulnerable than people think."
I hope it's more vulnerable that people think. I reckon the Academy will warm to it more than the HFPA. I reckon it as another Crash or Capote.
anonymous -- i understand the argument about MC failing inthe preferential voting system but I also try not to think too hard on that system because films that you'd never think in a million years would get @ 1 votes, do.
I can understand people liking them but #1 ... i mean Chocolat, Finding Neverland, Ray, there's a ton of headscratchers not that I mean to compare Michael Clayton to those inferior movies... just that it seems like opinions are broader in terms of best than they appear to be under the homogeny of the precursors
I sincerely hope John Travolta isn't nominated for Hairspray-- like the movie, but why honor the worst thing about it-- his accent oh so bothered.
And please will someone acknowledge Laura Linney in The Savages-- it's her movie and she's wonderful in it-- by far one of my favorite performances this year.
I still kind of think Juno will make it in though-- maybe it's just wishful thinking.
I trully believe that if Jodie Foster gets a SAG nom, she will make it. Her nearly ´´come out of the closet´´ may have changed her position on the game, do you remember her speech when she won for Silence of the lambs N? She basically thanked the support from everybody who understood her choices, well that can´t hurt, can it? But, you know I would bet my money on Kiera to the 5th spot.
It´s really about the SAG now, but I really don´t think that Angelina should be here, cause her perf is great but bitch can´t make an accent to save her life!
For me the most nail-biting category is the actor race (i'm bored of the actress race). The bar for Best Actor has been raised, even though the Best Actress bar has dropped.
There are so many award-worthy Best Actor candidates this year, who i can see getting in and i love them all. Its just Denzal Washington's nom which i'd be spitting nails at. He's great but its the same old, same old.
No chance for the Kite Runner? That surprises me, although I have no real desire to see it myself.
Is there any chance Atonement doesn't win the whole shebang? I don't see a way.
WOW Ratatouille is up for best visual effects.
My Oscar Top 5: No country for old men, Atonement, Diving Bell and Butterfly, Michael Clayton and Sweeney Todd. I somehow feel confident that "Diving Bell" is going to make it to the shortlist.
I can't imagine best actress shortlist without Keira, although it will be nice to see something interesting in the mix, then let's say Amy Adams.
I pretty much agree with all this except I think that Anderson will get the lone director spot, that Adams will get in over Knightley and that Sarah Polley will get a screenplay nom.
1 no country
2 atonement
3 sweeney
4 into the wild
5 the diving bell
6 michael clayton
7 juno
8 there will be blood
I saw Knightley in Atonement over the weekend and thought she was terrific. Her 1930s screen siren moves with just a bit of the mannered acting of the period made perfect sense when the final conceit of the story was revealed at the end. I predict she'll have the 5th spot, but I'm really high on her performance right now.
I don't want to beat a dead horse here, Nathaniel, but I REALLY think that the reaction (box office and critical) to "The Golden Compass" really firmed up our three Visual Effects nominees.
This is a category that pays the bills and they clearly love the crews of both "Spidey" and "Pirates," not to mention the fact that water stunts and stuff like Sandman are at the top of the list of things the F/X committee loves. Flops are almost never nominated. (I realize "Poseidon" was nominated last year but that was an incredibly weak year.)
If they want to mix it up, I honestly and sincerely think they are more likely to look to "I am Legend."
I AM LEGEND? ewww.
the effects were so bad. but then again, you're right that they love the big smash hits here.
my basic feeling on spidey and pirates was my basic feeling on shrek 3... isn't everybody kind of done with them despite their success. i mean who is talking about any of those three movies?
i guess i was assuming they'd vote on quality (my bad! ha ha) and I think Golden Compass has some pretty impressive visuals.
otoh i don't see an animated movie ever making it in here but if they'd really consider those from the bakeoff one can make a case for ratatouille and beowulf as deserving too
1. NCFOM
2. Atonement
3. Sweeney Todd
4. There will be blood
5. Juno
I really think that will be the shortlist--I just cannot see Into the Wild getting in there, and I see Michael Clayton falling fast. And if not Juno, then maybe Diving Bell?
To be honest, I don't quite agree that Ellen Page is quite the lock that everyone says she is. At the end of the day it's still a small and rather un-Oscar like film, and the voters might not appreciate the humor. The SAG nods will make that clearer though. I honestly think she's the one ripe for an upset.
My own predictions:
Cotillard (sure)
Christie (sure)
The other three from these four women, in order of likelihood:
Adams
Jolie
Page
Blanchett
Bonham Carter
Knightley and Linney are out of the race, methinks.
I don't think Travolta should be nominated... far too many more worhty performances...
Knightly was very good nin Atonement but I think Linney or Blanchett were much better in more pivotal roles...
MacDonald from No Country for Old Men should not be on the list.
Although I think Wilkinson is an excellent actor, I felt he hammed it up in Clayton...
I would put Paul Dano for There Will Be Blood in his slot/
I'm kinda psyched that the Academy's giving animated films a chance in visual effects. For my money, "The Incredibles", "Finding Nemo", "Ratatouille", etc., could stand up against any of the bombast of films like "Transformers" (which is winning this BTW), "Pirates", "Spider Man", etc.
i saw eastern promises i could not see what was great about mortensen at all,i know a lot of people on here hate showiness u inc nat but come on where was the nuance,the character,he hardly said a word,his body language was the same,i think people are remebering the naked fight scene and nothing more.
i get a bit fed up with this oohh it's all in her eyes,show me someone acting with every fibre of themselves marion cotillard deserves best actress although i do hold high regard hor jc and have no problem if she won but alzheimers pts do not continue to look as ravishing as she and as a mental health professional i should know,that bit rang untrue.
mortensen does not deserve a nom plus the film wasn't v good.
Wishful thinking, perhaps, but I only agree on the first three in your 16 December Best Actress call. I still believe the depth (such as it is) shown by Adams, Linney, and Bonham-Carter late in the race will keep Jolie from being remembered when ballots go out. The SAG folks are independent enough to actually go for nominations on the merits - if Bonham-Carter and Linney can eke out SAG nominations, they will be in. Thus, my forecast:
Helena Bonham Carter
Julie Christie
Marion Cotillard
Laura Linney
Ellen Page
Until I see all of the films in your Best Picture forecast, I have no business offering a guess. Lots of cinematic goodness to unwrap, though.
my basic feeling on Helena is that the mediocre singing will be just enough of a deterrent that she wont' have enough votes she really struggles in two numbers one of which is her first song and that's a problem
(that and that the part isn't quite as large as it is in other sweeney incarnations --in todays' f'ed up world of Oscar this could easily be considered supporting though it is still a co-lead)
Although I haven't yet seen "There Will be Blood," (I live in Phoenix), I'm rooting for it to win, just based on the trailers I've seen! "No Country" would be my second choice.
Ms. Linney deserves to be the 5th place best actress nominee. I'm voting for Cotillard to win.
i sure hope Adams gets the 5th spot in best actress. wouldn't mind seeing jolie out of that race, maybe have linney slide up in there real nice like.
also: under adapted screenplay predix: you should switch the pictures for #2 and #3 (TWBB and atonement). sorry if i'm being a pain.
oh, and praying macdonald comes clean with the supp actress nomination, and that affleck beats out travolta for supp actor.
maybe i should just do my own damn predictions.
Dammit, why didn't he just make Depp and his girl take serious singing lessons? That surely would've helped. I'm not against casting them in the roles, but for God's sake, make sure they can sing it. You have all the time in the world to get it right. It's not like they're singing it live. They could've spent months getting it right.
OR failing that, he could've just dubbed them. What ever happened to the good ol' days when if stars fit the roles and were bankable, you cast them and then dubbed them? It's better than letting them sing the roles badly.
Does Joe Wright have a realistic shot to win? I'm already doubting his nomination.
He's a modernist, not keen on method, and like David Lynch, he completely embraces film as an artist' canvas. The effect on his film, is obviously dividing people.
With the Coens, Burton, PTA, in the running this year, i'm doubting that Wright will get enough noms.
um Casey Affleck should be #2 he's definitely giving Javier Bardem a run for his Oscar. Why is he so low?
Some thoughts:
1. The more I think about it, the more likely Michael Clayton is that Mystic River type film that gets about 6 nominations total, all major categories, and half of them in acting. I know Oscar voting is a numbers and ranking game, but I think that the broad actor support will put it on enough ballots.
2. Does anyone else think that the Best Picture list will look a LOT like the Best Actor list? Especially if Josh Brolin gets a much-needed SAG surge.
Anon 7:39,
I can't see Wright missing out. The film is a threat for the win (I am actually expecting it - I think No Country will be too dark for their tastes) and, beyond that, I imagine the directors will be (justifiably) impressed by the Dunkirk sequence.
Having seen There Will Be Blood but not the Kite Runner, it still seems to me that the latter has a somewhat higher chance to be nominated, and perhaps even go all the way in the Best Picture race.
I think that after all the moaning and groaning about Iraq-movie flops, this reportedly "heart-breaking, inspirational" tale could be seen as the redemption of that trend, even if its only marginally more successful financially than Lions For Lambs and In the Valley of Elah were.
(and yes, I know it's about Afghanistan and not Iraq. But I still think it can play that role.)
The SAG Awards depends of the fifth slot. Now we have:
Lock to nomination and even win: Julie Christie, Marion Cotillard and Ellen Page...
Long shot: Only Angelina Jolie. (in the begining, for much I adore her performance I didn't think she could have any change, especially por her next film "The Changeling" but now... I'm glad!!!)
Perspective:
Likely: Amy Adams and Cate Blanchett (With the critics choice of their sides)
Possible: Helena Bonham Carter, Laura Linney (Beloved by the actors) or Keira Knightley (Now, she lost the Satellite and if she hasn't that nomination, her only hope is if she'll win the Globe but Julie and Angelina have an incredible presence so I doubt it)
Surprise factor: Nikki Blonski?? Jodie Foster!!??
anonymous Casey lover --i know Casey is giving Bardem the only run for his $2 million in the critics awards but that doesn't always translate. Peter Sarsgaard, Dennis Quaid etcetera. multiple critical citations keep your name in the game but they don't guarantee anything.
i love the performance but i just question if enough of them will watch and respond well to the movie. he's definitely got a good shot though, yes. But i think all six of those men do. one of them will be snubbed.
I don't think that "Michael Clayton" will make it too far in the preferential vote either -- it'll have to inspire passionate support to get to that level, and I don't see it materializing. But then I can't stand the film either, and it's pretty sad that this is the film that's getting Tilda Swinton mainstream attention. If the film can really manage three acting nominations, screenplay, and maybe some techs (editing, cinematography, score?), who knows.
"This is a category that pays the bills and they clearly love the crews of both "Spidey" and "Pirates,""
You could say that about Star Wars as well, and yet episode six strangely missed out on an effects nomination. And Nat, they nominated Narnia and those effects were very dodgy. Although I haven't seen I Am Legend so I can't comment on it's effects.
Adam, when I was reading People Magazine's Sexiest Men Alive piece (uh) in the article for Johnny Depp and they wondered what it was that made him so sexy and they suggested it was partly his carefree attitude before giving the example that - omg - he didn't do ANY vocal training for Sweeney Todd.
As if being a lazy git is attractive?
True enough, Kamikaze re: Star Wars. But Narnia was a way bigger hit and way better reviewed than "Golden Compass," which is already getting a rep as a historic flop.
I actually thought that Casey was number 2 BEFORE the critics awards.
I think Knightley has a better shot than Jolie at this point, so I'd reverse their positions (your BA lineup looks pretty good to me right now, though).
After seeing the Southeastern Critics results for Best Actress and her runnerup, I'm wondering if Page and Cotillard might split the "young newcomer" votes and allow my fav Christie (deservedly, IMO- I'm thrilled she's done so well with the critics) to take home the big prize. Also, the fact Christie's not fighting it out with her two main rivals at the Globes isn't going to hurt her chances, either (I'm assuming Christie will win the BA- Drama Globe without a problem from Knightley or Jolie).
I hope you're right about Travolta-it should have been a "gimicky" star turn, but he made Edna ring true with sassy gentleness.
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