Cate Blanchett -The Golden Age
+25 (nom) -2 (fourth nom or more) -2 (prev winner) = 21 pts
Julie Christie -Away From Her
+25 (nom) -2 (fourth nom or more) +2 (early opening) -2 (prev winner) =23 pts
Marion Cotillard -La Vie En Rose
+25 (nom) +5 (first nom) +2 (foreign language) + 2 (early opening) =34 pts
Laura Linney -The Savages
+ 25 (nom) -2 (december opening) =23 pts
Ellen Page -Juno
nobody guessed her a year in advance so = 0 pts
and the one supporting nominee that was predicted in lead...Cate Blanchett -I'm Not There
+25 (nom) -20 (supporting) -2 (4th nom or higher) -2 (prev win) = 1 pt
To find out who won, what they won and where you ranked in this contest, click on over to the contestants page. Wanna play again this year?
p.s. on a more self-centered note, I had my best year ever for last april's year in advance predix (including 3/5 in this very category --a personal best). If you wanna have a huge time travelling mind-f*** you can go visit them.
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17 comments:
i'd like to thank the lovely laura linney
Sounds like a lot of fun. Wish I knew about it last year. I would like to try this.
I still wish I would've remembered to do this.
I better this year!
So I was right when I said that Stephen G would win...Anyways, it seems that Adam K and I tied, good game though and it must have taken hours to calculate during the whole year...So I guess we owe a thanks to you and it was really fun...
Ugh, I did awful. What was I thinking putting Natalie Portman. What a waste of a slot.
I'm fine with my 83 points considering I got screwed over with Paquin and Keener's movies being bumped to 2008 and that Linney's Jindabyne performance was missed.
Oh, darn. Seventh is still pretty darn good. Especially considering how awful I was doing throughout the comp until the final stretch.
Also, I am reminded of sometime back in the summer when we discussed whether all three major earlybirds - that'd be Christie, Cotillard and Jolie - could be nominated. I think, if I remember correctly, the general consenses was 2/3 and it looked like all three would get in for a while there, didn't it? Hmmm.
Can't wait to do this again!
i have to give you some major kudos on those early bird predictions. for year out picks, they are pretty damn good. the only 0-fers were sound and makeup, which are real tough to call so early. but 3 of 5 for picture, actress, and costume is great, and 4 of 5 for art direction is just insane. good work sir.
This was a lot of fun, so I hope it was worth the hours, Nathaniel.
Those are some awesome prizes too! Well done to the victors - 4/5 predictions is rather astonishing.
Roll on this year's competition!
Wow, if I hadn't gotten Cotillard right (she was a goldmine for points) I would've barely gotten any points at all.
Kudos to Stephen G. and the other winners.
This was awesome, even though I came in like 790th place. Definitely in for this year!
A bit of crowing along with my heaping serving of humble pie (and just where did Mrs. Lovett find Mr. Humble, anyway)...
Back on 22 March 2007 when Nathaniel announced the full list of contestants in his Actress contest, and several people were all aflutter with how closely their predictions matched the 'consensus' top five, I posted the following personal prediction,
"You heard it here first...your contest winners will not have more than two consensus picks on their lists, and I would be even less surprised to see the winner have none."
Now, technically, I can claim I was truly Cassandraesque since only Blanchett and Christie made the cut for the top five. But that would be disingenuous...Cotillard was tied for the fifth slot in the consensus and, since Portman's Anne Boleyn was a non-starter, that suggests the tie should break in Marion's favor. So the winners had, more or less, three of the top five and certainly half of the top six.
However, the winners also had Linney in their pick-fives. Had any contest entries matched the consensus five for five, they would have lost. Just a cautionary note for next time - if you submit a contest entry and your roster matches the consensus perfectly, be afraid. Be very, very afraid.
From the guy whose 22 point performance put him in the "also ran" list.
that's very true. thanks for pointing that out. This year was a little unusual though in that we had BLANCHETT reprising a role many felt she should have won the Oscar for and two performances (christie & cotillard) that were already generating significant buzz before we vote since they were already completed as films and early releases...
i wonder if we'll know less this year and think we know just as much.
i am trying to come up with a way to weight against consensus choices though.
FOR EXAMPLE. I suspect that everyone will vote for STREEP in DOUBT this year sight unseen. so she should erally be less points if that's guessed correctly, you know?
Streep should never equal less points :)
Thanks Nathaniel for organising this, a LOT of work. I was thrilled to win, since it was so close (and I languished towards the bottom or the middle of the heap right up till December).
My rule when picking was to go with perfs that had been seen and praised (Linney at Sundance, Christie at Toronto, Cotillard overseas), not just go with past winners/nominees (why I put in Cotillard even though she was foreign, cos there's nearly always fresh faces). And movies with solid-looking release dates (Sweeney Todd gave me pause here, but the others looked safe). Blanchett seemed an easy get, but started to look very iffy come September. I didn't want to put 3 from the beginning of the year, and dropped Jolie because of the jealousy factor (ie also why they don't seem to nom Brad Pitt), but then she turned out to be a lot closer than Linney for most of the race. I was plain lucky in my 5th slot picking Bonham Carter, since my back-ups were Anna Paquin and Natalie Portman in films that never got released.
Heaps of fun, look forward to putting in an entry for 2009 soon...
Well, I think it'll be downright silly to predict next year's roster would be something like Kidman, Pfeiffer, Moore, Streep, Winslet or whatever BIG name is there because it is never like that. I wonder who will be the Ellen Page or Catalina Sandino Moreno...
I think there should be a predict the Film Bitches. Which film will have the best sex scene? Or who will breakthrough?
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