Paul Thomas Anderson -There Will Be Blood
The Coen Bros -No Country For Old Men
Tony Gilroy -Michael Clayton
Sean Penn -Into the Wild
Julian Schnabel -The Diving Bell and Butterfly
how'd I do on my predictions?
4/5 from the predix I submitted to Tom O'Neill's panel of experts, missing only Julian Schnabel (I still didn't quite believe that Diving Bell had garnered enough steam to compete for Best Picture at the Oscars --I could be wrong) thinking that maybe Reitman would get his first notice for Juno instead --even though I didn't see him making it to Oscar's shortlist.
what it means
The Best Picture race at the Oscars has been combative all season but this is a very good sign for Michael Clayton ... I've been confident about its prospects for months but others haven't so it's nice to see some vindication. Into the Wild and No Country still look like the frontrunners for the win. Schnabel (Diving Bell) and Anderson (Blood) are most definitely in contention for the directors' shortlist --they always were-- even if their films don't come through for Best Picture. Prediction updates will be up tonight in both categories. (my time is finally freeing up this evening)
previous blather
...will be announced very shortly. Refresh your screen to see the results when they come in. The DGA sometimes offers up twists. Complicating the matter is that their list often reads closer to Oscar's eventual Best Picture list than what you'd think of as a directorial list. So you might see names you haven't been hearing under "best director" like, say, Jason Reitman for Juno or Tony Gilroy for Michael Clayton. Or you might just hear the usual suspects: Anderson, Burton, Coen Bros, Penn, Schnabel or Wright. That's 8 names already and we haven't mentioned DGA favorite Ridley Scott. We shall see. News should be up around 1:00 PM EST.
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53 comments:
I hope I hear Joe Wright! Him and PT Anderson would make my day
Now I'm thinkin'
P.T. Anderson
Coen Brothers
Schnabel
Penn
Reitman
I have a strange, unsettling feeling that Tim Burton might get snubbed :(
DGA Predictions:
Sean Penn
Paul Thomas Anderson
Coen Brothers
Joe Wright
Sidney Lumet (but it could be Ridley Scott)
And Nat, I think you should consider moving David Fincher up your Oscar prediction list, definately above Haynes or Gilroy. I get the sneaking suspicion that he'll be the lone director nominee this year.
Predictions:
Anderson
Coens
Gilroy
Penn
Wright
Though that kinda reads like a wishful thinking list, as I love all of them.
I believe --
Coens
Anderson
Schnabel
Penn
And the fifth slot goes to Burton or Wright. I'm not feeling good about Reitman's chances but you never know!
i would LOVE it to see FINCHER in the list but that feels like wishful thinking to me.
it'd be so cool to have a 3/5 year this year eventually with Oscar but who knows...
i would love it more than anything if brad bird got nominated, but we all know it must not count as directing if it is animation, so that's a major stretch.
I thought the noms were happening at 10am est?
DGA predix, from most to least likely:
1. Coens
2. Anderson
3. Penn
4. Wright
5. Schnabel
-------------
6. Scott (ugh)
7. Reitman
8. Burton
9. Gilroy
I...I don't even remember a David Fincher film this year, so he won't get nominated.
Oh. Zodiac. Folks...give up on Zodiac. Heartbreak's a-comin'.
And this just in, the DGA nominees are:
Michael Bay- Transformers
Dennis Dugan- I Now Pronounce You Chuck and Larry
Gavin Hood- Rendition
Robert Redford- Lions for Lambs
Fred Savage- Daddy Day Camp
I'm not kidding myself that Zodiac is an Oscar-type film, and I don't consider myself the kind of person who lets personal feelings get in the way of predicting, but I honestly think that Zodiac has enough respect, especially in the Director branch, to pull out a surprise nomination.
Anderson
Coens
Lumet
Schnabel
Wright
While these are swayed by my wishful thinking, I honestly think neither Burton (sadly) nor Penn (don't really care) are as surefire candidates as everyone claims. And yes, I wouldn't be too surprised with Fincher (or even Cronenberg?). Well, we'll see in a couple of minutes.
I think the fact that DGA usually tends to predict Best Picture makes PT Anderson really iffy here, right? I'd guess Coens, Penn, Ridley, Burton, and Wright, myself. I think Sweeney is that movie that'll go DGA and PGA but get an Oscar snub.
Just announced.
Anderson
Coens
Gilroy
Penn
Schnabel
(I'm impressed with the list!)
JOE WRIGHT!!!!!!!!!!!!
That sounded enthusiastic. I meant it as a long cry of anguish.
I knew Burton would be snubbed
dammit, why aren't people loving Atonement?
It has major flaws. There were such strong contenders this year, 'Atonement' was just good. Not great.
GOD I wish this was the lineup... (except Into the Wild)
Oh, wishful thinking never gets you anywhere. You just end up doubly disappointed.
Well, I'll do the opposite of wishful thinking and predict two "questionables" that I have a feeling will be included:
Jason Reitman, "Juno
Ridley Scott, "American Gangster"
::shudders::
I think the PGA will be even more likely for these overpraised, dull films, though.
Acually, I'm just happy that Ridley Scott didn't get in.
And it's nice to see Tony Gilroy finally rewarded for his assured direction.
Anderson
Coens
Gilroy
Penn
Schnabel
Of the nominees, Gilroy is at the weakest spot right now. Obviously. Love out P.T. Anderson was nominated and Schnabel!
Ha! I couldn't have been much wronger than I was.
Great list. Best part of MC was the taut direction -- nice to see Gilroy finally getting some love!
Too bad for the brilliant Joe Wright, but I guess Atonement (not as good as P&P, by the way) is not catching fire this year. Precursors and period epics seem to be breaking up.
Ya, everyone hates Atonement now.
But I'm glad PT Anderson got in. If he didn't, that would've been tragic. He's been overlooked so many times and he keeps putting out these amazing films one after the other.
Boogie Nights, Magnolia, Punch-Drunk Love, There Will Be Blood. Who's got a better filmography than that with just five feature films?
I really am hoping that Gilroy doesn't make Oscar's cut. Michael Clayton, despite all these people claiming otherwise, is just a good episode of Law & Order (and Wilkinson is overacting to no end). I also found Schnabel's film a bit pretentious, and Penn's direction was hampered by a bad script.
Kudos on the Coen Bros, though!!!
If "Atonement" doesn't get nominated for Best Picture, I wonder how that will effect the BAFTAs. The British critics and press have been in love with "Atonement" since its release, and over here there hasn't been a backlash or any real criticism on the film at all, which makes it seem like it will be a shoo-in for Best Picture at the BAFTAs.
However, the British Academy haven't given Best Picture to a film that hasn't had any Oscar love in ages (especially since they've started getting respect in the past couple of years). If they don't give "Atonement" the win, it will be clear that BAFTA is just trying to follow in Oscar's lead.
John T I like you lots but WHAT? Michael Clayton and Law & Order in the same system. that pains me. one is a multi-layered psychologicallly astute portrait of indebtedness and self-preservation and one is a generic procedural
...the only similarity is that they're both legal dramas. Within any given genre there are wide wide ranges of quality
Joe Wright should have been nominated here for "Atonement". Tony Gilroy shouldn't be anywhere near this category. Both Wright and Burton for that matter should be pissed off.
Joe Wright not a big fan of Hollywood, anyway. He wants to move in a different direction.
And Burton has always been like that. I doubt if either of them care that much.
A pretty good list for the DGA Awards.
I think they will all be nominated for an Academy Awards, with the exception of Tony Gilroy. I think that there is still hope for Sidney Lumet, Ridley Scott and even Tim Burton on this Oscar race.
I think that both of them will care when they get snubbed for the Oscars this month.
is Atonement suffering the fatigue of being the front runner, everyone likes an underdog and god, is this year full of them
maybe a repeat of what happened to dreamgrirls, even though Atonement is far superior
having recently seen BEFORE THE DEVIL again I have to say that I don't get the fuss over Lumet's work on it. It has its moments but it's kind of sloppy, too.
a lot of the problem with ATONEMENT is the hype. Why didn't they release it earlier when the rest of the world was raving about it. It's kind of like if they waited to release There Will Be Blood about 6 months after all the reviews you're reading now calling it the greatest thing ever. You'd feel bullied into loving it instead of with the curve.
Nathaniel. He still doesn't get the "everything must come out in December" thing.
You should read some of Joe Wright's interview if you think he cares that much, about awards. He's a graduate of Fine Art and looks at his work like an artist. Atonement has launched him as a director of the first rank, and Wright is at the highest point of his career (he opened Venice!).
Burton on the other hand, has never cared. He does what he wants.
FOR YOUR CONSIDERATION:
Helena Bonham-Carter, Sweeney Todd: The Demon Barber of Fleet Street
- Adam
I think the reaction would've been the same for Atonement. Its too classical in its appraoch and that was never going to be embraced completely by US critics. And it still hasnt been released wide yet.
Having said that, it still has a very good metacritic score.
Even with Wright left off the list I'm having a hard time seeing "Atonement" left off the Best Picture list for "Diving Bell". The last time a foreign film garnered that honor was in 2001 for "Crouching Tiger", and that one was a major blockbuster. I just don't see a film that has grossed a mere $2 million at the box office so far making it onto the shortlist, no matter how acclaimed.
Diving Bell is no Best Picture material. I doubt that the grey-haired academy can get into it as much as much as some critics and directors do. It might be the "Best Director" nominee that doesn't have a BP nom, since the nominations for Best Director are done by the directors branch, but that's it.
I just wanna mention how HOT all three members of the Clayton clan look in that picture. Yowza.
If Joe Wright rejected an Oscar nomination, then I'd say he didn't "care" and was above the Oscars. But if he's nominated, I'd bet that he'd fall right in line with the machine and campaign and want to win director. He was into accepting that BAFTA for "Pride & Prejudice". It's bull to say that you know that he 100% doesn't give a flip about being snubbed.
Burton dances to his own drummer for sure, but I wouldn't believe that he would shun the attention if the Oscars ever really embraced his macabre work.
i've liked joe wright since he criticised the Baftas for not nominating Knightly for P&P at the ceremony
I still find it baffling, maybe it is the late oopening. Rising stars, established actors, emerging director, british period piece, beautiful cinematography (the war scene should be winning awards all on its own) and a smart, unpredictable screenplay.
if this were last year, how do people think it would have done at the oscars?
That BAFTA speech was hilarious. His nerve! It was also really sweet. She gets such a bad rep in the UK, and he always sticks up for her. I dont think it was until he spoke out that people finally acknowledged that she's still young and still developing her skills.
I guess the comparison to Law & Order was a bit cruel (case of the Tuesdays), but I still don't see what the fuss is about. I mean, Swinton was terrific, particularly in that knockout of a last scene, but as a whole, I just didn't think the first half was anything worth getting into-Wilkinson's rather loud performance totally took me out of the film, and the ending, while electric, is on paper rather predictable.
I think it's blatantly obvious why Atonement isn't catching on. Just look at the movies that are: No Country for Old Men, There Will Be Blood and Into the Wild.
If there are three other movies this year that are wholeheartedly about America then I'd like you to tell me what they are. Those three films are destinctly American, as a result, resonate more with Americans. Yes, non-Americans love those movies just as much as Americans do, but just like British people are more inclined to love British work and Australians are more inclined to love Australian work and so on, I just think the critics and awards bodies would rather honour very American-styled film that are truly about America too. The most American of the three, Into the Wild, was snubbed by the HFPA! That didn't surprise me in the slightest.
Make sense? And even the big foreign film in the mix Diving Bell and the Butterfly is directed by an American.
Anyway, that's just my theory.
Having said that, the DGA list is nice and all. I wish Wright could've gotten some love, but - as I said - they stuck with five Americans. Good on Gilroy for getting a nod, even though I don't think he'll make the Oscar list (I'm thinking Burton will take his spot). It's disappointing that in such a crazy year Atonement seems to be getting pushed to the wayside, but in a year of so many strong titles a slightly arch British film about the power of fiction just can't compare to a rich man being a prick and going walkabout in the forest.
Truth be told though, only the Coens appear in my top five directors atm made up by Brad Bird, The Coens, Shane Meadows, Florian Henkel von Donnersmarck and Matthew Saville.
Glenn,
thank you for this, truly. The point is obvious but it's also so very easy to miss. and in the rush of year end awardage from group to group I had thought about the american portrait of the top two critical champs but i hadn't stretched the thought further.
N
Wait, you agree with me??
Well that's a relief!
That's still pretty simplistic and xenophobic thinking though.
You're right. They are being very simplistic and xenophobic in their thinking.
Good call!
Nah, it's you. That was a dumb premise to start off with. These groups have embraced plenty of British fare in the past. They might not like "Atonement" simply b/c they don't like it, b/c the film does have numerous problems. It doesn't have to be some big and dumb conspiracy about just liking "good ole American films" better by rote.
let's not reduce the argument. I think there is much validity in the fact that people from anywhere have more of a connection to the work that's about their way of life as opposed to foreign work.
it's natural. great movies tend to make these lines blur and make borders less relevant but there's always going to be the hometown allure (to some extent)
But how many times that they awarded British fare was the competition so destinctly about America.
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