Wednesday, January 09, 2008
Oscar Prediction Readjustments
Read them and weep! or rejoice... Depending on how much you like the films in question. Discuss. You know what to do.
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39 comments:
I didn't know where to post this but I was too excited not to post it. KATE WINSLET IS REPLACING NICOLE KIDMAN IN THE READER.
KATE WINSLET IS REPLACING NICOLE KIDMAN IN THE READER.
KATE WINSLET IS REPLACING NICOLE KIDMAN IN THE READER.
Thanks so much! I had been looking forward to this... Interesting predictions so far!Too bad about Atonement,and Joe Wright.And James McAvoy,too,I suppose.
The thing about Burton being "shut out for so long" is...why would they stop snubbing him? Same thing with Sorkin never being nominated for writing: they will pass him over again this year (deservedly, of course). It's partially a "name-brand" thing.
It's too bad that the lovely Amy Adams has really slipped out of the running.
Oh well, I'd still show up for her red carpet any day.
Don't you have to be part of SAG in order to be nominated?
I think I'm most nervous about Atonement's chances. I can remember the last time I was so in love with a movie that was supposed to be the frontrunner (It's my #2 of the year). To see it losing steam is depressing... I'm still hoping that the Oscars will embrace it.
i think in your predictions that you're making a mistake leaving out "walk hard" for best song. it's easy to write it off since the movie has disappointed at the box office, but so has love in the time of cholera. just because it is comedic does not make it quality, and remember they nominated "blame canada" before. but the key reason i think "walk hard" will be nominated- judd apatow co-wrote the song, so it gives them an easy way to honor him for his whole year.
also, sorry to nitpick, but you misspelled jonny greenwood. he has no h in his name. sorry, i'm a diehard radiohead fan.
Visual Effects and Makeup shortlists have been announced, so you might want to take a look at those.
And Casey Affleck is pretty much a lock. Travolta's out.
well i haven't updated those yet. although i thought i had posted the visual f/x shortlists on its page?
i wouldn't say TRAVOLTA is "out" exactly. but he is looking a lot less likely.
it's not like surprises are impossible. ;)
Casey Affleck is Javier Bardem's MAIN competiotion. I've said this all year so he should be much higher and it's not just the critics group. The buzz on him is pretty hard to ignore at this point.
Nickatefan-Nicole chances next year are diminishing, but Kate's chances are rising ,if The Reader comes out next year. They've already started fiming.
I agree with Steve about Atonement. I usually hate the overwrought bloated British high-minded literary adapatation costume drama that seems to be a default Oscar contender every year. Finally when I like one and would be ok with it getting nominated and even winning (I wouldn't place it in my top 5, but it was still really good) it doesn't get nominated.
Casey Affleck in a movie nobody saw is anything but a lock. I'm sure Travolta has a better chance of cracking the shortlist.
You can't spell "The Assassination of Jesse James by the Coward Robert Ford" without S-A-R-S-G-A-A-R-D. Actually, you can...damn the letter G, ruining everything.
Nat - some of your links are randomly sending me to your 2004 Oscar pages, even though the URLs appear to be 2007. Just wanted to let you know.
Re: anon on Affleck
The difference between Affleck and Sarsgaard is that Sarsgaard wasn't nominated for any of the big awards (GG, BFCA, SAG) like Affleck has been. He only picked up the Globe nom. Affleck is in (or maybe he's this year's Quaid... if he misses, that's a better comparison).
I think both Kelly Macdonald and Ruby Dee get in. I am not buying the buzz for Catherine Keener. She doesn't have that much screen time and while she is good I don't think it is that memorable of a performance. I am saying this even though I am a huge Catherine Keener fan. I don't think the academy loves Atonement enough for Saiorse Ronan to get in. She was ignored by SAG and they usually reward child actors. I think people love Ruby Dee and rightly so. She is a legend and it is shocking that she has never been nominated. Plus a lot of people thought she stole that movie in her final scene. Kelly Macdonald's performance is very showy and I think the fact that actors probably appreciate the accent. If you have seen any interviews with her you would know how hard a performance this was because she sounds nothing like Carla Jean in real life. Another plus is that she is the heart of the movie and she actually manages to steal the final scene of the movie with Javier Bardem (something that is very hard to do).
Liz-The studios are still releasing The Reader in 08. They were filming, but had to stall because of Nicole ( Source:Roger Deakins interview). The studios say that filming will go along as planned.
So 2008 REVOLUTIONARY ROAD & THE READER for WINSLET WOOOHOOO.
DEAD POET'S SOCIETY is more of a high school film than BREAKING AWAY, and more recent too.
I'm still not quite seeing JUNO as a Best Picture nominee. Roger Ebert and Andrew Sarris don't have THAT much weight with the Academy do they?
I think you are underestimating the old-school love for Atonement. I do not see Into the Wild getting in for some reason, although I think you are wise to push Juno up into the final 5. Just out of curiosity--do you think Penn's divorce hurts or helps his chances (for the film, not as director)?
Ellen Page over Marion Cotillard and Julie Christie? "Into the Wild" over "There Will Be Blood"? Both of those sound way off. The DGA's proven that "Blood" is something to be reckoned with despite its late release date. I think they'll like but not go super-crazy over "Into the Wild" and "Michael Clayton". I still haven't given up on "Atonement" getting into best picture or Joe Wright making the director cut still.
"Ellen Page over Marion Cotillard and Julie Christie? "Into the Wild" over "There Will Be Blood"? "
These will all get in, so no need to rant about the placements.
That's not "ranting" over anything. If it's meant to be a ranking of likelihood to win as opposed to just being nominated, then the rankings do matter, if accuracy is the goal.
I refuse to believe that Atonement won't crack the top five. It's definitely going to be a big presence in the technical categories. It may have lost some steam, but it hasn't been over-hyped to Dreamgirls proportions. While Joe Wright may be shut out of directing, it seems implausible for the film itself to not make it in. When do they announce the PGA noms?
"Just out of curiosity--do you think Penn's divorce hurts or helps his chances?"
Neither, quite honestly. Penn is already an Oscar-winner with a much bigger profile and name than Robin Wright-Penn (who is a lovely, talented actress who has been working way too little, says I); their break-up has not been particularly high-profile (unlike the Cruise-Kidman divorce) and there have been no inexplicable hijinks on Penn's part a la Cruise.
Also, I don't think such things hurt (or help) men as much as women. Women are generally viewed within the framework of their relationships; men are viewed as individuals. It sucks, but there it is.
RedSatinDoll
"If it's meant to be a ranking of likelihood to win as opposed to just being nominated"--
It's not. That's why they're NOMINATION predictions.
i know you were up late last night, but "weap?" :)
Is there anyway to gauge the Academy's reactions regarding the foreign language films screening. I know a link was posted here a couple of years ago to a blogging site run by a member who was a voter. Does anyone know that link or any other site that may give insight on what to expect to be on the long list?
- Adam
Am I the only one confused about the relatively high placements of Lars and the Real Girl in several categories? I didn't think this film had any traction at all, particularly as compared to some others. Just curious what you see as evidence that will put it over the top. :)
well Lars has been doing fairly well in precursors with the screenplay and Ryan Gosling hanging on the whole season.
as for the "weap" thing. yeah. it's been getting sloppy. my apologies. yikes. in my defence i have been sleeping the weirdest times you can imagine and juggling two jobs and blah blah blah whine whine.
A WORD OF WARNING TO THE WINSLET BRIGADE: should we be excited or not? isn't this two lead roles in which case. we have potential trouble ahead.
FOREIGN FILMS:
I will update that with more info soon if i can manage
Anonymous is right. No H in Jonny Greenwood (he gave the H to Thom Yorke). Also, Silvestri wasn't nominated for a Golden Globe (in fact, the Beowulf score hasn't been nominated for anything at all). Might want to change your prediction there? And Marianelli *was* nominated by the BFCA. And Alan Menken's Enchanted score is ineligible.
I would be dissapointed if "Atonement" didn't at least crack the top 5. It's brilliant.
ok ok... i will sleep for a couple of days and then get back to everything ;)
Nathaniel R- Since I was expecting Revolutionary Road to be okay, then no. Plus she could easily be pushed in supporting in one cuz her charatcer is not the main character in either. Plus one of the films could bomb (All the King's Men anyone).
Yeah So excited.
I think you're underestimating Keener again ;)
i read somewhere that Kate was originally cast in The Reader then had to bow out due to Revolutionary Road's shoot. and now she is back on. so she is apossibility for lead and supporting next year. i have a feeling that if she is going to win an Oscar, 2009 is her year.
"Finally when I like one and would be ok with it getting nominated and even winning (I wouldn't place it in my top 5, but it was still really good) it doesn't get nominated."
I know, right! I wasn't annoyed when Dreamgirls or Cold Mountain missed, but I'd actually be disappointed for Atonement. It doesn't deserve the hand it's been dealt.
""Into the Wild" over "There Will Be Blood"? Both of those sound way off. The DGA's proven that "Blood" is something to be reckoned with despite its late release date."
But the DGA also nominated Into the Wild. I don't understand your thinking. It's like saying Ellen Page is more likely to be nominated than Cate Blanchett because Page has a Golden Globe and SAG nomination, forgetting that Blanchett has them too. There's other factors at work there.
yeah i don't know how you can look at best actress and NOT know that the most vulnerable is cate blanchett (from the precursor approved lineup of...
blanchett, christie, cotillard, jolie, page) because hers is the film with the least support --best picture heat helps alot in any race: see PAGE.
my hesitation about THERE WILL BE BLOOD (which is leading in my predicted nominees but it's a 5th spot in many areas so the count may be predictively misleading) is that I've seen it and I know that it's a tough movie. sometimes they chicken out of those even if they love them. we've seen that year after year my favorite examples to cite (I've done so before) being Hud and They Shoot Horses Don't They because they're the easiest for me to remember for whatever reason. But I'm sure there's more: high nomination counts including best director. --no best picture citation. I hope it doesn't happen to this movie but if ATONEMENT or SWEENEY TODD or DIVING BELL makes it, something will have to give.
Based on all the previous comments, here's kind of a blast out of left field -- what did you guys think of Benicio del Toro's seemingly overlooked performance in "Things We Lost in the Fire?" I thought it was a really fine, vulnerable interpretation of a hurting, confused man . . . in an uneven but moving film that was a love story on multiple levels.
""Into the Wild" over "There Will Be Blood"? Both of those sound way off. The DGA's proven that "Blood" is something to be reckoned with despite its late release date."
But the DGA also nominated Into the Wild. I don't understand your thinking. It's like saying Ellen Page is more likely to be nominated than Cate Blanchett because Page has a Golden Globe and SAG nomination, forgetting that Blanchett has them too. There's other factors at work there.
Yes, I think I realize that there are "other factors" at work. What I meant was that "Into the Wild" has had a lot of time to build traction, and it's been a bumpy road with no Globes nods and being shut out at the Critics Choice awards after leading the field. For "Blood" to come on as strong at the DGA like it did with its late screenings shows that the heat is there. It should be higher than fifth slot.
And I know that these are just "nominations" predictions. They should still work to be as accurate as possible, and some of these rankings are off.
The replacement role for Kidman to Winslet in "The Reader" is supposedly supporting, so before the tired category confusion argument plays into it, that's where she'll likely be placed for awards consideration.
Some excellent predix Nat, but I have to disagree about putting MacDonald in place of Dee-I think Ruby's going to be taking this one. She's a legend, is beloved by actors, and has never been nominated. All-in-all, that's usually enough even if the perf isn't.
That said, I'd love to see MacDonald show up-she's terrific in No Country.
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