This post goes out to those of you who predicted the Oscars with me wayyyyyy back in April. On December 3rd we totalled the points thus far in the "Actress Psychic" contest. Now, after 3 weeks of precursor madness an update. May the most psychic contestant win it all!Points since December 3rd (and a few I forgot last time)
Anne Hathaway, Rachel Getting Married +35 (NBR Best Actress, 1st time solo SAG nominee, 1st time Golden Globe nominee, BFCA nominee, critics awards -she maxed out on minor prizes, rotten tomatoes score above 85%)
Sally Hawkins, Happy-Go-Lucky +27 (1st time Globe nominee, critics awards -she maxed out on all possible points here, major and minor, rotten tomatoes score above 85%)
Meryl Streep, Doubt + 24 (BFCA, SAG & Globe nominee, two minor critics prizes, film opened)
Kate Winslet, Revolutionary Road +24 (SAG & Globe nominee, critics awards -maxed out on minor prizes, EW cover shared)
Angelina Jolie, Changeling +23 (SAG, BFCA & Globe nominee, one minor critics awards)
Melissa Leo, Frozen River + 23 (AFI top ten list, NBR special award, first time solo SAG nominee, BFCA nominee, two minor critics prizes, rotten tomatoes score over 85%)
Kate Winslet, The Reader +10 (Globe, BFCA & SAG nominee ... only in Supporting, two minor critics. Only lead awards count)
Meryl Streep, Mamma Mia! +9 (Globe nominee, one minor critics prize)
Cate Blanchett, The Curious Case of Benjamin Button +4 (AFI top ten list, BFCA nominee)
Kate Beckinsale, Nothing but the Truth +3 (BFCA nominee, film opened)
Vera Farmiga, Nothing but the Truth +2 (BFCA nominee... only in Supporting, film opened)
Hiam Abbas, The Visitor + 2 (rotten tomatoes scored over 85%)
Rachel McAdams, The Lucky Ones or The Time Traveller's Wife + 1 (NY Times Style cover... I forgot this point last time)
Rachel, Rachel... oh Rachel
Remarkably not one of the Best Actress contestants was listed in the EW "Great Performances 08" section that just came out. In fact, it's been kind of a lame year for Best Actresses in terms of media interest/coverage. Few magazine covers all year have gone to our leading screen actresses. The only point possibilities remaining are last minute magazine covers, box office points, the NSFC prize, The FiLM BiTCH Awards (that's my nominees if you're just joining us), BFCA and Globe wins, rotten tomatoes score for the movies that have just opened or are soon opening (scores still in flux) and of course the OSCAR NOMINATIONS themselves after which the contest ends and we announce the gold, silver and bronze medalist in psychics. Your current leaders, way out front, are KiYe and Rich Aunt Pennybags. Here's that complete chart of contestants and their points. Hayden W, JarJar K, Jaydawg, Rizz, Sasnyder and Matt Noller appear to be battling it out for the bronze... unless of course Jolie or Winslet are snubbed (they're on a lot of the ballots) in which case it could be a number of people's game. The tiebreaker (how many nominations will Revolutionary Road get?) will undoubtedly have to be used this year.
Next year we'll do this Psychic contest differently -- maybe we'll start later in the year and do both Lead and Supporting... I'm still brainstorming.
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35 comments:
I think Daequan deserves some credit as well, for being the only one who predicted the whole Melissa Leo thing. That's pretty impressive.
YES. Totally true. I should've worked in some point boost if you correctly guessed someone who is on very few ballots. I do have a minus points if they're on too many ballots but not a plus points.
if i can't figure out a way to automate this i might not even do it next year. Too much work. I need a system where you can all enter the names yourselves and it tallies things automatically
I don't blame you. Kudos for all the work you put into this contest. I always enjoy it, but can understand if you retired it.
I know this is a semi-unrelated topic, but what do people think of the possibility of Anne Hathaway getting Norbit-ed by Bride Wars in January? I worry.
suburbanidealist
i thought the same,
i think people will think "hmm, she's still too young and too chick-flicky to win a lead Oscar"
which means it's a battle because Grande Dame Streep and Princess Winslet
Winslet FTW
Is it wrong that I found that Rachel WAS superb in The Lucky Ones?
I didn't see it so alas, I can't respond. But I think she's very talented so it wouldn't surprise me.
I fail to understand how so many people with Julianne Moore on their ballots are still up so high. -__-
I doubt Hathaway was gonna win it anyway, so it probably doesn't matter. But maybe that will just seal it.
I love that "Norbited" is now in the cineaste lexicon. Kind of like the "SwiftBoated" of oscar politics.
I hope Jolie is snubbed (even though I picked her) since then no one will be 100% right in this contest and it'll be a little more interesting. Plus I want Melissa Leo nominated instead.
I will respond to Hayden personally, as I am one of those people:
The answer is that my other four picks are Hawkins, Jolie, Streep and Winslet (in RR).
But the Moore pick is what will ultimately make me lose, if that makes you feel better.
Damn you, Blindness, and your not being well-received.
Exactly! As much as I want to do well in this contest, I would be overjoyed if Jolie got another big, fat snub. I hope the BAFTA's throw a curveball with Blanchett to open up the field a bit. That would bode well for any actress on the fringe.
Right now my lineup:
1. Anne Hathaway
2. Melissa Leo
3. Michelle Williams
4. Julianne Moore (Savage Grace)
5. Nicole Kidman, Australia
Honestly, this year is turning out to be stronger than I'd hoped. This isn't a bad lineup considering how much (Streep, Winslet, Thomas, Hawkins, Blanchett) I still need to see. I'm also expecting Emma Thompson to have a great shot at cracking my top-whatever for Last Chance Harvey.
And as for the contest it's no big deal. Like I said, I actually hope I lose on the Jolie front. I'm just waiting to see if Cate Blanchett's press picks up a bit--I'm pretty sure I'm almost alone in the current pool.
BAFTAs will probably be:
Cate Blanchett (Benjamin Button)
Sally Hawkins (Happy-Go-Lucky)
Meryl Streep (Doubt)
Kate Winslet (Revolutionary Road)
Kate Winslet (The Reader)
But Anne, Angelina, Kristin, or even Kate (Beckinsale) could make it in... I don't see them nominating Melissa Leo (too small and American).
I'd kinda like to see Hawkins take the BAFTA, if Kate cancels herself out. Otherwise, a Kate in The Reader win would be interesting.
I like to think the BAFTA's will be above Jolie (a la 2007) and above Eastwood (a la 2004).
On paper two lead nominations for Winslet almost sounds like a sure thing, the more I think about it.
Or, wow...I just noticed that the BAFTA's have never nominated Jolie for anything. Why the hell would they start now?
I think if Winslet goes supporting for Reader, she steals it from Cruz, and Hawkins probably wins lead. If she goes lead, Cruz wins supporting and Winslet either wins lead or cancels herself out and it still goes to Hawkins.
Anne Hathaway - Rachel Getting Married
Sally Hawkins - Happy-Go-Lucky
Angelina Jolie - Changeling
Meryl Streep - Doubt
Kate Winslet - Revolutionary Road
I think this is the lineup and here's why. Sally Hawkins has New York Film Critics Circle and LAFCA. No actress in the past who has garnered BOTH of these honors in the past has ever failed to get a best actress nomination. True, yes.
Angelina Jolie has nailed every precursor, like she did last year. To miss twice in a row under these circumstances would also be unprecedented. But stranger things have happened. Either Hawkins or Jolie could be shoved aside for Leo or Scott-Thomas, in that order. This is an insanely competitive race. And don't expect the Golden Globes to clear things up. Meryl is going to win drama, with Winslet and Hathaway as possible spoilers. Hawkins is going to win Comedy, but that doesn't mean anything. Crazy crazy competitive. And then there's Aniston, who could totally turn the race on its ear :)
what about minus points for popular guesses which don't pan out? . . . (it penalizes people for going with group think)
how it it that we didn't see Kirstin Scott-Thomas coming?
I was just thinking that Penelope Cruz might not win this year, but because she might be nominated next year for "Nine"
I agree with the TKN ... Aniston could turn this whole year on its year. No, really, I agree with the prediction and the rest in the post.
I assume that any points a particular actress might have accumulated over the year will be totally nullified if she doesn't get nominated for the Oscar, right?
No, I don't think that's how it works. You just get a massive bonus for someone who IS nominated.
Maybe there should be like double points for someone who >5 people put on ballots or something?
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But that's a totally arbitrary number.
"Is it wrong that I found that Rachel WAS superb in The Lucky Ones?"
She was definitely the best part . . . but she wasn't well directed.
the jack if you chase the psychic link all the numbers explanataion is there (scroll down)
you don't lose points if she isn't nominated...so basically having 3 nominees right plus a 4th who almost makes it will scored you much higher than having only 3 right.
I still feel chuffed about, surely, being the first person to predict Hawkins way back on February 27. And considering I also predicted Hathaway, Streep and Winslet I feel I'm doing pretty darn well despite that Australia thing not panning out at all.
Yeah part of the reason I picked her was cause I was copying Glenn ; ) I so wish I'd caught that performance when it was playing in London when I was there this summer. But then it disappeared before I got a chance. And now it's disappeared here too! And I still haven't seen it.
Anyway, Glenn, if Jolie is snubbed for, say, Melissa Leo, you'll be in pretty good shape. You must've gotten some points for Kidman, after all... she was at least on a magazine cover or something ; )
Yeah. Her movie opened!
I'm pretty sure a lot of people took note of Hawkins as an Oscar possibility, independently from one another, the moment she won Berlin. I know I did.
Hey, top 20 placement for me and I even have a completely useless spot in Emily Blunt, whose film didn't even open!
I should be feeling more confident...but I have a crazy feeling they're going to leave out Jolie
Don't get me started. I'm temtped to petition Nathaniel as I did predict Melissa Leo, just for a film that didn't open. And really, I only predicted that performance because I thought it would be cool to be the only one to predict it.
I didn't think Hathaway would be good, didn't think BLINDNESS would be bad, and I didn't think that The Young Victoria would languish without a distributor. What's up with that? Nathaniel, I think Anna Paquin should have an honorary slot in this game until Margaret is released. She can be like Jessica Lange. Without the bad facial surgeries.
My life is such a whirlwind of work that I haven't really paid attention to the Film Experience (sorry!) but it looks like I wasn't too shabby...for now. For some reason, I have a feeling that I will not win.
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