This wasn't a good morning for: Rachel Getting Married, The Dark Knight and Milk which each managed only one acting nod despite real opportunities for at least 4 nominations
Great morning for: Queen of Hollywood Meryl Streep (23 Globe nominations in her lifetime now) & Queen-In-Waiting Kate Winslet who both double dipped for their actressing...
For brief spur of the moment thoughts on each and every category go here now. Return and discuss if the awards spirit moves you.
What does it all mean for the Oscar race? Or even this: What does it all mean for the televised ceremony? If you put Brad & Angie, Leo & Kate, and Tom & Katie all on the same red carpet (along with 40 other household names) do gossip blogs spontaneously combust from overheating?
Posts
91 comments:
No Clint in actor!
Tom Cruise/Robert Downey Jr. get in for supporting!
Blanchett gets snubbed as well.
they loved Tropic Thunder, mamma Mia! and Vicky cristina Barcelona, but Milk snubbed.
The snubs of Cate Blanchett and Taraij P. Henson, both from "The Curious Case of Benjamin Button", are terribly strange.
1) The Class us not Best Foreign Language Film nominee??
2) Kate did it!! 2 nominations.
3) Meryl did it as well!
4) Shannon not nominated?
5) Nate, bravo for predicting Amy Adams. I did not expect that!
Jim
REBECCA HALL. REBECCA HALL!!!!!
Serious snubs! Brolin, TDK, ...
pablete... it's really not weird if you see the movie. It's not really an actor's movie. It's a director's movie in a lot of ways.
I just noticed. No Sarah Jessica??? :(
Jim
As for Taraji, you know that they were going to go for Amy Adams (the bigger star) so someone had to get left out and Viola reviews were just too darn good.
I'm not surprised that the GG wasted four spots on "The Reader." I expect this will go the same route as "Charlie Wilson's War" last year. Aside from an acting nomination, it's DOA.
I saw "The Curious Case of Benjamin Button" on December 2. It is a movie endowed with beautiful, perfect performances. This situation reminds me of "Gigi." I still hope "Benjamin Button" gets three acting nominations.
All I can say is go Rebecca Hall.
It is also very strange they nominated six dramatic movies when they could have done something similar with some acting categories, leading actress in a drama most particularly.
They obviously had to starf**k somebody, but I had no idea it would be Tom Cruise.
And I just can't believe that they have made so boooooring choices for best drama and best director while their best comedy nominations are terrific (Happy-Go-Lucky! In Bruges!).
I hope this doesn't ruin "The Dark Knight" Oscar chances.
I'm loving it
who said again that Jolie had no chance in hell for an Oscar nom
but that Blanchett will win easily
(cough kris tapley and sasha stone cough)
I now think DeWitt will take Adams' place at the Oscars so Winslet will be in!
I like it that both Kate's movies are Best Drama nominees but I think The Reader should have been replaced by Milk.
I also think Hawkins will take Jolie's place at the Oscars and nothing else will be different.
Jim
CNN's coverage of the nominations is pure Ledger love. His nomination can really shape up to be the story of the Oscars, with people watching only to know that category's results.
Rebecca Hall for VCB or Kristen Bell for Forgetting Sarah Marshall?? IMDB is saying Bell not Hall.
All those who thought Kate would be snubbed LMAO.
Michael Shannon will get in and either Taraji or DeWitt instead of Adams.
Well it's 100% Rebecca Hall.
The comedy nominations could have been crappy but they're excellent avoiding Sex and The City and Cadillac Records. Love that Rebecca Hall and James Franco were singled out. And most exciting: In Bruges - Best Pic and TWO actors. It would have been great for Ralph Fiennes' nod to be for In Bruges to add to the tally but he was singled out for the better performance in The Duchess. So NICE.
Sad for lack of Dark Knight and Milk love but they will rebound at the Oscars. The Dark Knight will be like The Sixth Sense and The Green Mile - big blockbusters will be show up bigger at the Academy Awards.
Tom Cruise is one of my favorite nominations. Hilarious. Love it.
On the TV side...Yay True Blood. And January Jones' lead actress nomination on Mad Men!
It is. certified by the Golden Globes web page.
I feel so sad for Dark Knight. If someone was going to award it, i thought it was going to be the globes.
Anyway Oscar is a different thing.
I am dancing around inside my heart because of the love for In Bruges and Rebecca Hall. Yay!
Actually, "The Dark Knight" was always going to have trouble at the Golden Globes (in my opinion). I expect that the guild awards will give it the boost it needs for Best Picture. It also helps that "The Reader" (and probably "Revolutionary Road") will not be showing up for Best Picture at the Oscars.
I just noticed Australia is completely out of the picture. Not very unexpected since there are no art direction and special effects at the Globes but still, Baz must be really sad.
Jim
No Milk, I'm seriously pissed.
I am very sad for "Australia" too. It will become a classic when we grow much, much older.
Is "Milk" this year's "Capote", Globe/Oscar wise?
Pardon my frankness but, this shit is kind of retarded.
I mean, hardly any Milk love?
Tom Cruise and RDJ for supporting is indeed brilliant. Meryl nominated for both categories in leading actress is also very nice.
I'm only a wee bit surprised that the other "female" blockbusters this summer SATC (apart from Mama mia) got no nomination at all, but frankly it just wasn't good, so there (I didn't see MM, so I can't comment on the quality of this one).
But I'm also very surprised about the lack of real Milk love.
Regarding the predictions of the Oscar line-up, I'm guessing Streep (for Doubt, of course), Winslet, Hathaway, Hawkins and the fifth spot is either up to Jolie or Scott Thomas. I'm hoping Scott Thomas.
What do you guys think who will take the Globe home Best actress drama category?
Three for Mad Men! Series, Hamm, Jones. Mama happy.
i hadn't even noticed that. wow. that is a big deal for January Jones
I'm loving it
who said again that Jolie had no chance in hell for an Oscar nom
but that Blanchett will win easily
(cough kris tapley and sasha stone cough)
Well, I agree that Blanchett is probably out now since if the Globes won't even nominate her even though she's one of their favorites, then her chances aren't very good now. However, Jolie still isn't making it into the Oscar line-up. Remember they love Jolie, and they need Brangelina to show up to their show after the disaster that was last year's reading the awards off a list ceremony. The SAG's won't be such starfuckers, and M'Leo will get in.
Further, I'm all for awards picking some out there nominees or winners to shake things up, but did they really have to nominate Cruise of all people?!? He was funny at first, but by the end, I wouldn't say that he was the funniest part of the movie because he became boring to watch after awhile. People like Eddie Marsan, Michael Shannon, or Emile Hirsch could have used the nomination so much more than this throw away nomination just because they want to kiss ass to as many celebrities as possible because of the disaster that was last year's ceremony.
I am mostly satisfied about the Comedy categories though which is surprising because usually the Globes suck in those categories just nominating the big names and big movies without really putting much effort into like it seems they do with their Dramatic categories.
I'm happy for January Jones, but Elisabeth Moss got *robbed*.
Very sad day for Dustin Lance Black. Well, for 'Milk' in general....
trey I think you meant to type Christina Hendricks ?
;)
rich aunt if it turns out I was right about Blanchett (it might still happen of course in which case i'll be wrong) do you think i'll get any credit from the people who wanted my head when i expressed skepticism towards that weird flashfire of "she will win" from Kris and Sasha?
Nah. didn't think so.
rahul b it is kind of unfortunate. I mean i love out of nowhere nominations (which is why i love the globes who are guaranteed to give you at least one each year --this year more) but couldn't they be at the expense of some category frauders or boring performances instead of some fine ones?
joseph but isn't the no S&tC weird though? given how much the Globes always loved that show?
rich aunt if it turns out I was right about Blanchett (it might still happen of course in which case i'll be wrong) do you think i'll get any credit from the people who wanted my head when i expressed skepticism towards that weird flashfire of "she will win" from Kris and Sasha?
Nah. didn't think so.
lol, I don't think so either. Of course, I'm happy that they didn't nominate her because she's one of their favorites or other favorites like they could have like Nicole Kidman, Keira Knightley, or Clint Eastwood in actor, but if they got over their star fucking tendecies altogether, they would get more respect.
I like to watch them because the stars look like they have the most fun their, and it is nice when they do nominate something out there, but their celebrity love is really irritating sometimes.
I'll probably be alone in this, but I don't think In Bruges is fully a comedy. I thought that it was precisely the ability to turn something comic into something else one of the main strenghts of the movie. Also, I think Farrell is the weakest part of the cast.
I haven't seen SATC, but as Nathaniel said some days ago (I think) anything that has Mamma Mia! and Best in the same sentence... is, at least, a sign of a weak year (for comedies).
Is it too soon to be talking winners-because I'm dying to see which of those five ends up taking Best Actor in a Comedy. Hoffman's in a film no one's seen, Farrell/Gleeson cancel each other out, Bardem won last year, and Franco's in a pot comedy. My guess would still be Hoffman, but he's already won 5 Globes & the DeMille, so they might want to spread the wealth-to whom, though?
I am surprised about the SJP snub in particular, seeing as it was a massive film and they do love her and I actually thought she was quiet good in it too. Milk shut out is very surprising, but does anyone expect the Oscars to follow the Globes in the Supporting Actor category ? I would think Heath and RDJ are the only ones to transfer over.
The most disappointing thing with these nomination were the conservative choices in Best Director. They literally just named the five directors from the five Best Drama films. No Demme, No Nolan, and No Van Sant. Very annoying.
Other than that, I too am peeved with there complete ignorance of MILK and RACHEL GETTING MARRIED. It's like I've said before, the Globes have moments where they seem completely out of their minds.
P.S. As for MILK and RACHEL GETTING MARRIED, I really don't think this hurts their chances at more Oscar noms.
yes but they're always a little weird in director and Globe Directors aren't generally a great sign of Oscar nods. just like Globe Scores have not that much correlation.
Okay, I know that I may be strung up for this, but I really thought that the SATC movie would get more nominations. At least a nod for SJP. No, it wasn't a great movie, but it is on a very similar level to Mamma Mia.
And the Tom Cruise nomination is ridiculous.
That said, the nods for James Franco, January Jones, Amy Adams and Penelope Cruz will keep me tuned into the show.
Milk and The Dark Knight will rebound at the Oscars.
And, I'm calling it: Anne Hathaway will win the Globe for Best Actress. Get ready for entertaining faux-evil looks from Meryl Streep!
Oh and Nate, back to the SATC snubs, I am really dumbfounded. I kind of wonder if maybe this is backlash for talking about a sequel too early.
As in, perhaps the HFP is sending the message that, "yes, on premium cable we will support the show endlessly but now that you want to create a mediocre film franchise for stories we thought were done we're going to ignore you."
Or is that just my feeling?? LOL
Tom Cruise? What a joke. He was Tom Cruise in character make-up. Was the bit funny? Yes...mainly because it was Tom Cruise doing it...not because the acting was so great. I would rather have seen Jack Black get a nom for TT then Cruise. Yes, that is a starf**k to put TomKat on the carpet with Brangelina. Ugh.
Also, I love Cate Blanchett better then the next guy, but, I don't think she' getting nominated and here's why. I am southern, and I was a dancer and she doesn't convince as either in my opinion. Blanchett never disappears in the role.
Happy Rebecca Hall went in over Johansson...who I find over rated...and I am unhappy about Rosemary Dewitt's snub.
I hope the Actor's will shake this whole snow globe up again when the SAG noms come around!
Yeah, the Tom Cruise thing annoyed me.
It's still tough to know where we stand, although I'd say the day's biggest loser was The Dark Knight. Milk needs no help to get AMPAS's love. But The Dark Knight does.
Yeah, I'm not feeling the Richard Jenkins thing anymore. Small great indie performances can sneak in in weak years (ie: Gosling) but this isn't a weak year (especially if he'll have to knock out Clint).
And speaking of Clint, not only did he write a song for Gran Tornio...... he sings it!
Is it just me or are the months of speculating what and who is getting nominated more exciting then actually finding out what and who is getting nominated? Its just so...underwhelming.
p.s. I can see Anne having a good chance of taking the Globe.
Nathaniel, I noticed your grade for I'VE LOVED YOU SO LONG. What of Kristin Scott Thomas? Are you not falling hard for her the way reviewers were?
I see Anne as more this year's Ellen Page-yes, she could sneak into a three-way race with Streep and Winslet, but it just ain't gonna happen.
And am I the only one bummed that the Globes didn't take the chance to say "screw you" to ABC by giving Pushing Daisies some citations-last year, they nominated both Friel and Pace, why not this year too?
I'm not at all surprised by four nominations for "The Reader" and I don't think it means much to Oscar beyond Kate Winslet's rising chances of getting two nominations (she is Oscar-nominated for every film for which Golden Globes reward her). Golden Globes don't shy away from sex in movies. They nominated "Mulholland Drive" and "Little Children".
I'm getting a bit nervous about "Milk" snub. Academy members are WAY more homophobic.
The Globes are not homophobic. "Brokeback Mountain" won 4 Globes out of 7 nominations. It is one of movies more rewarded by the Hollywood Foreign Press ever. "Capote" and "Milk" are more similar. They have a lot of politics involved, and they lack the theatrical style of "Frost/Nixon" and "Charlie Wilson's War."
God help me for standing in front of the Academy, but I wouldn't call them "WAY more homophobic." I do think homophobia contributed to the loss of Brokeback Mountain (though as close as it was, it could have come down to 10 homophobic votes).
But it's not like the shunned Brokeback Mountain. I think whoever suggested that Milk is such an American-based movie, that it wouldn't appeal to the HFPA (as say, the Reader would) is correct. I'm not worried at all for Milk
"The Hours" won best picture and best leading actress for Nicole Kidman as well. Do not forget (lesbian) ladies when referring to gayness.
the acting races my thoughts
actor
dicaprio - revolutionary rd
penn - milk
langella - frost/nixom
rourke - the wrestler
jenkins - the visitor
actress
streep - doubt
winslet - revolutionary rd
jolie - changeling
hawkins - happy go lucky
hathaway - rachel getting married
s/actor
downey jnr - trpoic thunder
ledger - the dark knoght
hoffman - doubt
brolin - milk
fiennes - the reader
s/actress
davis- doubt
tomei - the wrestler
dewitt - rachel getting married
winslet -the reader
cruz -wicky christina barcelona
I think most people has been deceiving themselves, thinking there was any competition at all for the movie that is obviously going to win Best Picture: strong in technicals, artistic enough, with overdue names, with prestige source... The Curious Case of Benjamin Buttom has it all, and it's a kind of consensus film, relatively safe pick. To pick "Milk" the year Proposition 8 won would be a "taking sides" from Hollywood, and Hollywood doesn't like to seem to have a politichal agenda. Slumdog Millionaire is probably too small. The rest are no brainers. They MAY give it to The Dark Knight just to prove something, but are we really seeing anything apart from those 4 titles actually winning? Wall-E would be a lovely suprise at the noms but with Animated would be enoughly rewarded in the eyes of everyone. I think "Buttom" has 75% chances of winning, specially after the GG going for it and ignoring Milk. Slumdog ain't winning and we all know that, don't we? Lack of star power is normally definitive.
by the way, am I the only one that thought it was Cruise rather than Downey Jr who stole the whole fun in Tropic Thunder? Not award worthy but heck, love to see him here.
I'm not worried for Milk nor for the dark knight. They have everything a good movie has to have to please experts and moviegoers as well. I think that at this time, the big eight nominees are starting to be clearer.
Yeah, I think Milk and Dark Knight are still in, with the last spot being somewhat hard to call. Frost/Nixon has the edge, but I wouldn't be shocked to see it lose out to Revolutionary Road, Doubt or even The Wrestler (which did well enough with the globes to raise its profile a bit, despite the lack of picture/director love).
Ultimately I think it's...
1) Benjamin Button
2) Slumdog Millionaire
3) Milk
4) Dark Knight
5) Frost/Nixon
...with someone replacing Ron Howard for the "lone director" spot (probably Aronofsky). For all their weirdness, I think the globes mostly just reinforced the conventional wisdom that was setting in before the critics' awards (and BFCA) jerked people around.
I think the GG Drama is between CCBB and Slumdog, I see the three period pieces cancelling eachother out.
Adam, I actually think that "The Wrestler" has a great shot at a spot on the Oscars' Best Pic List. I think that Aronofsky has built up the clout and respect needed to push "The Wrestler" into the circle.
Additionally, I think Wall-E has a better chance at slipping in than anyone recognizes. I think that not getting a globe nod for Best Comedy/Musical may have hurt it a bit, but I still see it making it.
My predictions for AMPAS Best Pic Noms are:
The Curious Case of Benjamin Button
The Dark Knight
Milk
Wall-E
The Wrestler
And that is a very assorted bunch, isn't it!?
They shouldn't have done that to "The Dark Knight" and especially "Milk." And for what? "The Reader?" Sigh. At least the comedy/musical side is decent. "In Bruges"? Really? Was that film supposed to be good? I thought that was just some more star f'ing for Colin Farrell.
TOM CRUISE in supporting actor? Seriously? They need to stop silly nominations like that that go nowhere.
Really happy for Rebecca Hall, James Franco ("Pineapple Express"!), Sally Hawkins, Amy Adams (I think she's going all the way to an Oscar nod and get that rare quartet of acting nominees at the Oscars), and for Kate Winslet rebounding with double nods.
Glad that they nominated Angelina for "Changeling", haters be dammed. I don't even mind Brad Pitt's nomination, though I know that this nod cost Richard Jenkins his nomination. But no Clint? I didn't think they've ever miss a prime opportunity to honor him. Those song/score nods are pretty low-rent in comparison.
No Sarah Jessica Parker or "Sex and the City"? That sucks, they deserved to be there. Nothing for Tina Fey or Amy Poehler in "Baby Mama" either? Odd. I hoped that Frances McDormand could have gotten in for "Miss Pettigrew" instead of "Burn After Reading".
I thought that Woody Allen could have made it into screenplay since they seemed to love "Vicky Cristina Barcelona."
WALL•E was ineligible for best pic comedy/musical, it's only allowed to compete in the animated category. Were it eligible in the big race, it would win.
That said, there's no way Slumdog Millionaire isn't getting nodded. I'm hoping for a lineup of tCCoBB, Slumdog, Milk, Dark Knight, and either WALL•E or Wrestler. Frost/Nixon just seems like such a boring choice. Plus, I never want a Ron Howard movie ever to be nominated again.
Also, I have a sneaking feeling that Button will end up getting the most nods (something like 11) but will not win. It just seems to be one of those tech giants that ultimately ends up losing for being too "cold", not baity enough, or just plain weird. Like The Aviator, Fellowship, or Dreamgirls (which of course wasn't even nommed).
I think it may eventually be upset by either Milk (less likely now, sadly) or Slumdog... yes, I said "upset" because everyone knows Slumdog is the underdog ; )
that'd be cool but unfortunately FROST/NIXON definitely appeals to older audiences who remember the event and so it's safe to say that it aint budging from the best picture field since it's pretty entertaining despite being a "safe" choice
The snubs of Milk, Dark Knight, Pushing Daisies, and Lost make me very very sad.
was LOST eligible? it seems like eligiblity for tv shows is always confusing given all theri long hiatuses and such.
I'm glad that Milk and The Dark Knight got "snubbed" because I don't think either one of them is an award-worthy film. That's all.
Yeah, Frost/Nixon's 5 globe nods probably lock it in. There's really no rational reason to expect it to miss. Also, it has many competitors for the 5th slot, not just one, so they'll all be splitting votes. WALL•E, The Wrestler, Rachel, Rev Road and The Reader will mostly likely cancel each other out. I think the best one can hope for is that Howard will go down to a lone director, most likely Aronofsky.
The nominees for supporting actor are truly disgusting. That's all I have to say.
i wouldn't necessarily expect Aronofsky to be the one.
The Wrestler is an actor's film. So even though he's obviously a great director... they tend to like things that are more... i don't know. less actorly there. Although i suppose it could be a leaving las vegas type of directors nod for directing jawdropper of a performance.
Yeah, we can pretty much assume Frost/Nixon is a lock. It was actually a really good film. I don't think The Wrestler is much of a contender anymore. In fact, if it comes down to Benji Button, Slumdog, Frost/Nixon, and Milk (which I think is still a strong contender), I'm sure AMPAS would want to put a huge and credible sci-fi blockbuster in the Top 5 for good measure.
The Dark Knight or Wall-E...
Doubt, The Reader, and Revolutionary Road (in my opinion) won't make the line-up.
And The Dark Knight is a total Directors film. If the movie doesn't make the top 5, rest-assured Nolan will.
"Lost" was definitely eligible. They snubbed quite a bit of tentpole shows -- "Desperate Housewives", "Lost", "Grey's Anatomy", "Pushing Daisies" (RIP), "CSI" (though they've never really dug this show), "The New Adventures of Old Christine", etc.
I don't mind Christina Hendricks being snubbed, since she didn't have much to do this season, and if they're going to lump everything into one category like they do, she wouldn't have made it in there. But Elizabeth Moss being snubbed is bad, especially when January Jones is up there nominated.
See? My own comment above is completely deletion material.
Apart from that, one may agree with their choices or not but I just know they're part of my upbringing. They're they only precursor that hits the news every year around here. So, you when you see them on TV you know the Oscars are close. I don't know, I guess it's like when Christmas lighting is turned on.
I'm not happy about The Dark Knight and Rachel Getting Married snubs. And High School Musical should have got nominated for at least one best song. Preferably "I Want It All".
Miley Cyrus received a Best Song nomination, huh ?
The mere thought of Cyrus possibly being nominated for an Oscar makes the bile rise in my throat.
But isn't Aronofsky getting a lot of credit for his "comeback" after the Fountain "debacle"? Returning to humility and such? And he's still never been nommed, despite this string of great/ambitious/visionary films. I think if anyone's gonna be a lone director (assuming Nolan's film is a best pic nominee), that it'll be Aronofsky and not, say, Demme (who most would agree has gotten his due, and whose films seems to be catching on even less than Aronofsky's).
Vera Drake was all about the central perf, and they nominated Leigh... come to think of it, might they do that again this year? Hmmm...
I think a lot could depend on what the NSFC decides to do. I have a feeling they'll go big for The Wrestler, which really hasn't been getting enough love. They tend to lift up those would-be critical faves that have been neglected earlier in the season. Could be something like:
The Wrestler
Aronofsky
Kristin Scott Thomas
Mickey Rourke
Rosemarie DeWitt
Bill Irwin
Jenny Lumet (for screenplay)
Whichever film they really behind (presumably either Wrestler or Rachel... or both?) could get a big boost.
I meant to say "rally behind"... or "really get behind"... take your pick.
One more comment:
Everyone go read my SAG/oscar post on my blog, and leave me comments! Thanks.
I have a completely weir question :p
I've read great things about The Secret Life of Bees and Fanning's perf. Why wasn't her name ever mentioned in anyone's predictions?
And I just notices Eastwood is a nominee for Grand Torino's score!?? Maybe it has been known and disscussed but.. That's impressive. A decent actor, a good director and now a nominated composer? He has a lot more than just Dirty Harry in him after all!
Jim
He's actually been nominated for composing before.
I personally am more impressed by how he actually SINGS the Gran Torino song.
"The Reader" is this years "Bobby" and "Great Debaters"... fairly mediocre reviews, but it'll look good on the posters and dvds.
The Reader got nominated over something like Milk for - I presume - one major reason. The Hollywood FOREIGN Press are mostly European and Milk perhaps just didn't register with them as much as the European set and made Reader.
I always think back to when All That Jazz - a bonafide Oscar-winning classic - was only nominated for Best Actor at the Globes. Strange in retrospect, and I'm sure at the time too, but no great harbinger for troubled waters.
And in defense of the Supporting Actor category. That is always the weakest category year in year out and Ralph Fiennes was legitimately praised for his work in The Duchess as were the other men. Even Cruise got his fair share of good reviews.
I think the strangest occurrence is that Doubt got four acting noms and a screenplay nod yet not Best Picture nomination. it's the only screenplay nominee to not be nominated for Best Picture, actually.
Some thoughts about oscars and gg in light of new nominations:
best pictures:
-locks: curious case, slumdog
-most likely: frost/nixon, milk (i am still saying that this one pulls through although gg snubs was harsh.)
-revolutionary road really needed this validation, and i think it will help it a lot.
-i think the reader has an increased cred now. this might be a well kept bombshell of buzz that will release upon release.
-gg snub for dark knight also really hurts. this looks like a far 7th place.
-wrestler, doubt, rachel getting, walle, only outside viable chances.(ok, gran torino still a huge question mark)
-gg comedy nominations= irrelevant
ACTOR
still very difficult to distinguish the chances between the top 7.
-sean penn and mickey rourke, still the only locks in my book.
-langella and dicaprio looking good to fill out the spots, but neither are necessarily out of harms way.
-pitt is my guess to complete the category. jenkins has a chance. and then im putting eastwood. not his year, maybe a lil backlash since changeling wasnt that good and million dollar baby overpraised.
-nobody else has a chance in hell
ACTRESS
-stiff competition. streep is in. im also feeling very confident for hathaway. and thomas.
-winslet seems like she should be a lock and the first one to get snubbed. i think shell make it.
-i think melissa leo will make it in. shes tight with the actors, and early standout came through for lee jones, and an actress might get the love this time. jolie is a solid bet too, but also on the border of getting bumped.
-cate blanchett could make it. sally hawkins could too, but im doubting it. kate beckinsale is a viable longshot, im thinking not distinguished enough.
SUPP ACTRESS
-davis, cruz, winslet, you are in. seeming to be the most locked up category.
-i think tomei has a solid shot.
-fifth is where the battle is. i have been loyal with henson for a long time, but just now doubt a bit. i think she will make the list by a hair.
-dewitt is my next bet. seems a classic supporting actress nom role
-i was betting on adams earlier, and she has come back in the race. i consider her a long shot.
-kathy bates= next replacement, but very long shot. debra winger= just had to mention her but pretty much no chance
SUPP ACTOR
-lock ledger. lock robert dj. the race to win is between these two.
-nearly locks= phillip seymour hoff. and im also saying (despite gg snub) michael shannon is a click away from a lock.
-the fifth place is very hard to tell. i say brolin. (i think that dan white was the only other compelling character other than milk, franco and hirsh gave fine performances and gave vibrance to their characters, but left a lesser impression)
-ralph fiennes has a good chance of getting in, im honestly clueless about whether to pick dutchess or reader. lets say reader
-franco has a shot, i guess.
-dev patel is a looong shot, right? he wasnt that good.
-i liked emilie hirsch a lot. if any of the big players were snubbed, i would like to see him make a sneak attack, although i still think he might not be the most deserving.
-can we make something clear: tom cruise has no f'ing chance. if he does, please disregard everything i just said.
predictions:
Best Picture:
Curious Case of Benj. Button
Slumdog Millionaire
Frost/Nixon
Milk
Revolutionary Road
Confidence level: 7, if reader replaces one= 9
Best Actor:
Sean Penn
Mickey Rourke
Frank Langella
Leonardo DiCaprio
Brad Pitt
Confidence Level: 5 (only 2 others in the mix, so low level)
Best Actress:
Meryl Streep
Kristin Scott Thomas
Anne Hathaway
Kate Winslet
Melissa Leo
Confidence Level: 6
Supporting Actress:
Viola Davis
Kate Winslet
Penelope Cruz
Marisa Tomei
Taraji P. Henson
Confidence Level: 7, top 4 staying there= 9
Supporting Actor:
Heath Ledger
Robert Downey Jr.
Phillip Seymour Hoffman
Michael Shannon
Josh Brolin
Confidence Level: 9 (the race for 6th place is very weak in my eyes)
Humm.. The globes have an history of confusing things up before the Oscar... I don't think this will do any harm to my predictions...
NOTE 1: Miley Cyrus nominated for «Bolt» song? Oh, I'm going to throw up!
NOTE 2: Clint Eastwood singing: Now I've got a reason to watch that film!
NOTE 3: Revolutionary Road's salvation at the Globes seems like it was planned, intentional... Hmm... Only thing I'm sure about RR is Di Caprio and Winslet... Mendes and the pic itself won't have that luck...
So my predictions currently sit like this:
BEST PIC:
The Dark Knight
Milk
Curious Case of Benjamin Button
Slumdog Millionaire
Revolutionary Road
I think Milk and Curious Case will split votes and TDK, being the most mass-attractive film of recent years, will end up winning - the Academy needs many TV viewers...
So I feel secure about these 3. I have a belief that Slumdog will definitely be in the list, which leaves last spot for either Doubt/RR/Frost-Nixon/Rachel Getting Married... And I believe RR (unfortunately I may add) will be the last of the top 5.
If the Academy decides to sit out TDK, I believe Doubt will have a very good chance of stepping in.
BEST ACTOR:
This race is about to be over. We have 6 people for 5 spots.
Langella, Rourke, Di Caprio and Penn are in. Jenkins or Eastwood, here's the dilemma. I bet Eastwood is in. Oh mercy, Score, Song, Director (I hope not), Best Actress nominated and himself nominated for Best Actor... Ravishing year for old ClintBling!
BEST SUP ACTOR:
Race is almost finished as well. Shannon is in, so is Seymour Hoffmann. I've always believed Sheen to be here in the top 5 but as they decided to run a two-lead campaign, his spot goes to Downey Jr. Josh Brolin is more than in. He'll fight hard with Ledger (I don't even need to say he's in) for the win.
BEST ACTRESS:
Love this category. Love all the performances. Streep frontrunner with Anne Hathaway. Hawkins too joyful and happy and well at her role to be denied the honor (critics awards may help). Two spots left. Academy Award overdue Kate Winslet is obviously in (as apparently she needs an Oscar - I don't like her, I don't know why - I loved her in Eternal Sunshine though) Which leaves our final spot for... I am not sure but Jolie gets it in my opinion. The race for 5th is between Jolie/Blanchett/Leo. Leo is too unknown, Blanchett's performance is good but not great (that didn't stop them last year... but Elizabeth was a mighty role, hard to pass out the opportunity to nominate beloved Cate), Jolie was snubbed last year, has a good performance, is in the Clint train, won at Cannes (I don't think we should minimize that) and we all know how stunning she would look out there in the red carpet... ;)
BEST SUP ACTRESS
Frontrunner: Penelope Cruz (winner I would say) Big chances for Viola Davis and Marisa Tomei. Giving that Winslet needs the freakin' Oscar and the category-swap, she will be here (AS WELL!) for this ridicule supporting role in The Reader (very well-played indeed) - believe me, if the Best Actress Oscar does not go to her, this one will... :( Last spot to be filled with the most deserving of them all. De Witt's year I believe. If they go with Amy Adams as well I will jump off a cliff :S
BEST DIRECTOR
Nolan (Assured even if TDK is not best pic)
Boyle (Slumdog - I'm beginning to hate the damn movie)
Fincher (directed the most probable nominated film of the evening)
Van Sant (well-deserved)
Last spot is to Aronofsky or Leigh. No Demme here. My money is on Aronofsky.
The Revolutionary Road scenario is quite identical to Atonement last year, isn't it? Absent from pre-globes awards and then voila it springs up everywhere and people have faith in it again albeit briefly.
I'd have more faith in RR if it'd done even better at the globes... like Atonement-level, 7 noms. It could easily have happened, with Michael Shannon, the screenplay, and the score all in (in fact, all of those are still likely to get oscar nods, according to most people).
I think the mini-resurrection will get Leo and Kate in, along with a slew of techs, but I think RR will be another Road to Perdition-type situation, where the whole is less than the sum of the parts, nomination-wise.
Post a Comment