As In Contention recently reported, the Detroit Film Critics have given another Supporting Actress prize to my girlfriend Marisa Tomei. I couldn't let this pass as, despite my critical fatigue I am a Detroit boy. I grew up dreaming about being the film critic for the Detroit Free Press. Which means of course that I wouldn't have a job anymore.Pic & Dir: Slumdog Actor & Supporting Actress: Mickey Rourke & Marisa in The Wrestler Actress: Kate Winslet in Revolutionary Road Supporting Actor: Heath Ledger in The Dark Knight
This is great fun since Tomei's character in The Wrestler , "Cassidy/Pam", could so easily have been imagined as a Motor City transplant (the movie takes place in New Jersey). Apparently this puts Marisa at a tie with Penélope Cruz in most supporting actress precursors (I wasn't aware... pile enough critics awards on me and my brain goes as slushy as Detroit roads this time of year) though of course teensy critical notices are not as powerful as a SAG nomination in drawing Oscar's attention. Still, I think she'll be nominated. I spoke with Marisa again last week and I'll share some of that conversation with you after Christmas. But I'll drop this little tidbit for now: I was pleased to hear that she's a big fan of Milk --"it blew me away" she said. Here's hoping it blows other movie-loving Academy members like her away since Slumdog, Frost/Nixon and Doubt seem to hogging the media attention (at least this week).
Two other critical awards I haven't yet discussed in case you're less insatiable than I: The Women's Critics Circle which have rather unique awards no Best Picture just "Best Film About Women" which went to Changeling (how anyone can think that's a better film about women than Rachel Getting Married or Frozen River I will never in a million years understa--oh, right Clint Eastwood. Got it) and The African American Film Critics Association which went like so...Picture & Supporting: The Dark Knight & Heath Ledger Dir: Danny Boyle, Slumdog Millionaire Actress: Angelina Jolie, Changeling (her only critics award this year (no the Satellites aren't "critics" prizes) Actor: Frank Langella, Frost/Nixon Supporting Actress: Viola Davis, Doubt
I am making a vow for next year right here and right now. No critics organization that doesn't keep an updated webpage will be included in my awards coverage. I'll just ignore them entirely. It'll make things more professional and easier on me. The AAFCA and the WFCC are yet two more that haven't updated their websites in several months.
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Kate has been winning some things recently hasn't she ? Detroit, Vegas, St. Louis, ... I'm really thinking she'll get it for Revolutionary Road.
Sally Hawkins - No Sag nom.
Angelina Jolie - Doesn't have the momentum anymore.
Anne Hathaway - Too ingenue to take it from someone who is as overdue as they get.
Melissa Leo - No GG nom and film is way too small.
Cate Blanchett - Not getting in :-)
The only one who might spoil the party is ... La Streep. I love her and in a perfect world she has a gazillion oscars, but she better make some kinda public statement a la Jude Law: GIVE KATE THE OSCAR! And she better start a whole campaign for Kate to win. I can't handle my Katie losing again, when (especially in the last decade) so many tart starlets have won it with ease.
the bafta will tell us if kate is in for the win,and why is clint being talked up as best actor for playing clint like he has done for the past 30 years.
This year's oscar has always been Streep v. Winslet, even before the films were done.
I don't think Streep will be starting a Kate campaign, though... she may be starting to want another statue herself by now, at least to the point of not actively campaigning for the opposition. But I'm sure that if Kate wins, she'll be up out of her seat and cheering, like she always is.
I think Kate will win. The globes will want to give RR something, and so the globe will be hers. Then, SAG will reward Streep with the ensemble prize, which is good for Kate, cause then the SAG will be hers. And oscar will follow. At least that's the scenario I see in my mind as of now.
Also, when did Marisa rack up 6 critics' wins?? Like, whoa. I doubt it means much, though, since none of them are major. She could still easily be snubbed. But The Wrestler seems to be picking up steam, so I think she'll nab the 5th slot.
Actor: Marion Cotillard gives it to Sean Penn
Actress: DDL gives it to Kate Winslet
Supporting Actor: Tilda Swinton gives it to someone accepting on behalf of Heath Ledger
Supporting Actress: Bardem gives it to Cruz
It will be beautiful.
2007, Marion Cotillard for La Vie En Rose
2006, Helen Mirren for The Queen
2005, Felicity Huffman for Transamerica
The African American film critics were the only critics to give their Best Picture to Crash. So you better pay more attention to them
The kate fanatics are really boring this year. Do you really think that the Academy will give the Best Actress Award to Kate Winslet who was nominated only 2 times as Lead, and not giving it to Streep who was nominated 12 times as Lead and lost 8 10 consecutive times. Winslet may be snubed for RR
Nathaniel, you should put Milk out of your Top 5. AMPAS did not award B.Mountain, they will snub Milk , which is a worst movie and more Gayish. You know, you gays are not well liked in california. (even with that million Brangelina gave to them because of Preposition8)
anon 7:49 you sure you want to use my name "Nathaniel" cuz it sounds like you like to view 'the gays' as one communal entity ;)
there are as many kinds of gay people as there are straight people and i'm sure that californian's aren't monolithic either. It doesn't surprise me to hear that some bigots live in California but i'm sure there's people with gay friends, too. Jeez.
but it's true that MILK might not make the Best Picture race. there are more movies still in play than there usually are it seems. who knows.
i figure BUTTON & SLUMDOG are the only sure things and the other 3 spots are some combo of 4 movies (any one of which might not make it)
MILK, DARK KNIGHT, FROST/NIXON, WALL-E
with an outside shot for DOUBT
and if there's a major shock (based on precursors) it'd have to be either THE WRESTLER & REV RD both of which haven't been doing that well --Oscar buzz wise -- as whole films, just some acting attention.
More conversations with Marisa?!!! Talk about a holiday treat.
Ever since her BEDROOM comeback, I can’t seem to get enough of her- she’s pitch-perfect in THE WRESTLER and I’m glad to see the critics rallying. A third Oscar nom better be headed her way to put it mildly.
And to hear she’s a big MILK fan too… my kind of woman.
PS: As the raves trickle in for THE WRESTLER, I’m thinking it starts gaining momentum. Plus, I can see the National Society of Film Critics- who love going all contrarian- giving it Best Picture and/or Director.
I really belive Aronofsky will snag the lone directors spot. As well he should. Maybe he’ll even edge out Ron Howard as Mike Figgis did back in ‘95.
The image of Marisa Tomei emerging from the Uniroyal tire will not soon leave my mind. Brava!
Yeah, Marisa sure has been growing on me the past couple years... I kinda love her now. I even told an actress in a John Patrick Shanley scene I directed to use her as a reference for the character. Hope she snags oscar nom #3 this year and joins the "not once, not twice, it's REALLY not a fluke" academy club.
1)Nate, Adam K, I love the way you analyze Oscar possibilities! You should make predictions together!
2) Is it me or are Meryl fans very inclined to being also Kate fans and vice versa? (I'm one example) Is it just because they're both great actresses or do they have something more in common?
3) Can people please stop hating each other? If straight people were OK with gay people, things would be so much better for everyone. I mean, hello, homosexuality has been going on for so long. Get used to it. You won't gain anything if we stopped being gay.
PS: Sorry for no3 Nate. I don't want to start an offtopic disscussion. I just needed to say that.
Jim
Yeah I go a little overboard here considering it's not my blog. But more people read here...
I have my own blog where I generally do predictions, but I've been busy this year. Film school and whatnot.
I myself am both a Meryl fan and a Kate fan. But I want Kate to win this year. Meryl loses a few points for subjecting herself to Mamma Mia (even though she was fun).
Can we talk about Mamma Mia's insane international box office. It's outgrossed Titanic in the UK, and only 28 million separates it from The Dark Knight. How the fuck did that happen? Do Americans just not get ABBA like the rest of the world does?
america is too hung up on r n b too notice that is why they recently missed some great pop acts like scissor sisters,mika and girls aloud.
My dream (having only really seen 1 or so contenders for each category)
jenkins/hawkins/ledger/tomei
I am the anonymus for 7.49
Nathaniel, I am so sorry if I hurt the Gays. I was no my intention, because I do not have nothing against gay people. For me there is no gay people and other people. just people. My remarks was only to say that such a beautifull movie like B.Mountain, a movie about love, was snubed by the Academy I think that Milk, which is IMO a worst movie will be left out.
I sincerely apologise to the people who may feel hurt by my words. English is not my mother language, and I migth use the wrong words. sorry
anon 8:12 thanks for clarification. No problem. the more the merrier here.
but i do ask that people type a name with their posts so it's easier to have conversations.
there is an option when you comment called Name/Url.
you only need to type a name (url is optional) and conversations become much easier.
Wow, that image looks like the greatest fever dream ever.
Looking forward to more talk with Marisa!
I'm not sure if i want Kate to win. Here in the UK the papers keep on writing about her EVERY single day, which is starting to get so boring. And if she does win they will be talking about her till eternity, like they're doing with Helen Mirren, especially after her oscar win.
um...
haven't they been talking about Kate for 14 years now? why would it end even if she doesn't win?
I don't think "Curious Case" is a lock like Slumdog. It only has 83% on rotten tomatoes.com and doesn't seem to have as passionate a fanbase as Milk, Slumdog etc.
I agree on the newfound buzz for "The Wrestler" and wouldn't be surprised at all if it sneaked in over Wall-E or The Dark Knight. I will die of happiness if Rachel Getting Married is nominated for Best Pic because its such a gem.
- Sean C.
How awesome and exciting (novel, I know) would it be for Tomei to take another "surprise" Oscar? I'm a huge fan of Cruz's performance, but she is still a rising star who really only became a huge star because of Cruise and who will have plenty of chances to wow us in the future with her talent. Tomei has paid her dues for coming on 20 years, and I love to see shock on presenter's faces. I still revel in Julia Roberts' when she had to force a smile through "Ang Lee!"
But Tomei already has an Oscar? Wouldn't it be nicer to see somebody else get one? Not to sure I follow your thinking on that one Billy. But, then, I just saw Vicky Cristina Barcelona yesterday and loooved Cruz plus I would've given her the statue for Volver.
I still say Milk - if it gets the nomination - could be the sneak attack for the win. Especially if voters can't decide between the relatively obscure (Danny Boyle is the only recognisable name) Slumdog and the apparently coldish Benjamin Button. It's the most typical AND the most topical and while I'm not one to think many Academy members are steaming about Brokeback Mountain's loss, I imagine many could mark it down as their winner because that won didn't win.
Well I'm tempted to say Slumdog is already a lock for the win, what with the orgy of critics' awards, globe nods, SAG nods, fanbase, etc. And I really don't understand it, after finally seeing the film. It's just not that great. Plus the "Millionaire" game gives it the same distinctively "TV" feel that Crash had. And that really sours it in my mind.
I guess I can see why academy type groups, and the NBR, for example, would like it, but why is it winning all the critics' awards??? I mean, really. The only explanation I can think of is that it's the Obama year, and this is the Obama movie. Everyone's feeling all multicultural and uplifting, and like you can make it no matter where you come from. Between this movie and the Rick Warren thing, I'm actually starting to get annoyed with the Obama legend. Damn.
But let's wait and see how many nods it gets. If it only gets like 6 (pic, director, screenplay, cinematography, editing, score), which is totally plausible, then it won't look much like a frontrunner. If Dev Patel and that "Jai-Ho" song are onboard, then we'll know it's on the way to a win.
Then again, Crash had 6. Grrrr...
Changeling got greak reviews by UK critics, so Jolie is in.
The Departed had only five nods, so I don't think that really holds any water. But then I'm the opposite - having just seen the film I think it's wonderful and if I can't have WALL.E or RACHEL GETTING MARRIED fighting for the top spot, I have no qualms with Boyle's flick taking it.
I'm a Michigander and long time Marisa Tomei fan (since she was in A Different World). I'm glad to see The Dark Knight and Heath Ledger got a best pic choice because that movie was wicked awesome! And now that you mention it, it is pretty strange that Changeling beat out Rachel Getting Married in the Womens Critics Awards. I haven't seen Changeling yet but I'm guessing Angelina Jolie must play a really strong willed woman to convince them to choose her over the remarkable display of sisterhood in Rachel.
OMG, that was Marisa Tomei in A Different World! I totally didn't realize! How crazy that certain actors' careers will really take off after TV things, and others' just... won't. You never know.
Adam, if Slumdog wins SAG then, yeah, I can't see it losing. But if it doesn't... Brokeback won basically every single best picture prize out there worth winning until SAG's ensemble prize and then Crash went on to win Best Picture. So if something topples it for the Ensemble prize at SAG then I think there's a race on our hands.
hello... marisa and i totally discussed A DIFFERENT WORLD on the podcast. You didn't listen?
MARISA TOMEI IS IT !!! sorry, penelope cruz is totally overrated and one dimensional in that movie. imo the best performance was given by rebecca hall and not her. anyways, back to tomei, she's proven herself to be a force to be reckon with time and time again. roger ebert even picked her to win the oscar a few years ago for in the bedroom and in the wrestler, she's phenomenal! and wtf that she wasn't nominated for the SAG and spirit???!!! OMFG, travesty. think, she's the dark horse come oscar time. anyone shares this with me?
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