Following Oscar's crazy 'more best pictures! less best songs and old people!' news I've been updating the Oscar predictions very slowly. C'est finis! Discuss.[please note: I'm aware that there might be a few errors in formatting -- I'm hearing there are problems with the Best Actress page and I'll comb over the html soon. Not sure what's wrong. The Foreign film pages will also arrive later this week]
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84 comments:
I have a feeling that very few academy members would list Up as their 1, 2, or 3 choice, so i think it misses the top 10. I actually hope it gets left out becuase I think it pales in comparisson to other pixar films.
It still seems wrong somehow you know. The Academy Board of Governors must have been huffing something strong the last few days. And isn't that Sid Ganis-guy retiring? He apparently wants to push through some last regulations before getting the boot. Someone else did that too. His name was George W. Bush.
I think (and hope) Shutter Island will be nominated.
For some reason I think I will hate Bright Star. I have a feeling it will be something we've seen 100 times. I hope I'm wrong.
And please. Mr Jackson... I need a trailer. Not just another teaser poster.
On the Oscar Buzz board on IMDB, I do a predictions thread (I started it last year), and our collective Oscar predictions for the month of June (done just this week) are...
Nine***
Invictus
The Lovely Bones
Shutter Island
Precious
---
Up
Bright Star
An Education
Avatar
Public Enemies
So instead of The Road we have Shutter Island. Neat!
is the academy really that sexist? For some of the movies a con is its female driven or something to do with women. I kinda believe also that it has a stronger chance when its more male oriented which is sad and sort of disgusting of the academy. I think there's kind of a lot of female heavy movies this year that'll be good so that's exciting since most best picture winners always have bitch/weak/worthless female main characters if there's any main female characters.
Heck, now I am even more excited about the possibility that "Avatar" could shortlist (or can we use that term any more in the ten-wide world?) If Cameron delivers the goods, then the film is a cinch bet for at least six technical nominations, so it should get enough top-3 placements overall from that slice of AMPAS. Let's get an unapologetically science-fiction genre film on the final ballot, for a change.
I agree with Dean..."Up" is not the movie Pixar should be breaking trumps with. I'd be okay with "Wall-E", "The Incredibles", or either "Toy Story", but not a movie with a second-tier script.
Part of my reasoning for the Up snub is that it came across to me as being very silly which is fine for a kid's film (lest we forget that's what it *supposedly* is) but it's not fine to gain academy members' ballot votes.
um.......just thought about it. Does pixar or dreamworks have any female main characters in their movies? I'm talking about the absolute most important character not the second or third but the first character that the story mostly revolves around. I can't remember any.
Monsters vs. Aliens
I'm betting on a huge let down from Avatar. Really, we don't know anything about that. And the last time I heard about revolutionary technology, it was Beowulf.
Yeah but Beowulf was directed by Robert Zemeckis, who doesn't compare at all to the genius of James Cameron IMO.
I didnt see monsters vs aliens but that movie is kinda new. It took that long for them to make a movie mainly surrounding a female? I don't know, I shouldn't care.
Didn't 2002 shove away even a little gender bias? Both the Golden Globe Best Picture winners, "The Hours" and "Chicago" (which won the Oscar), were movies about women directed by gay men. I'm sure that says something about where the Academy is headed.
I also have a feeling that the Academy might feel obligated to find room for a comedy in their Top 10. Aside from an animated film ("Up") and a musical ("Nine"), I do think there will be a comedy in there. I'm kind of pulling for "Away We Go" right now but I'm very guarded about that. Any thoughts?
Ms. B. --Pixar has none. MvA is a Dreamworks endeavor, and not a great one anyway. I'm fairly certain that this issue is brought up every now again right before a Pixar release and to me it seems that Pixar (unofficially) shrugs it off by citing a female supporting player or by telling us that little boys won't watch a film with a girl as the hero because they can't identify with her or something moronic like that.
I think we should all care because in the end that's the same reasoning that leads to the lack of good female roles in live action films.
On the Female Pixar movie thing: Wasn't the Holly Hunter role in "The Incredibles" at least a co-lead? I sorta think it was...
Hey nat even though u didnt post a review for My Sister Keeper i was wondering what your thoughts about Joan Cusack in it? Cause i thought she outdid the whole cast!
I really think (500) Days of Summer will be able to nab a nomination for Best Picture! It's been charming audiences from festival-to-festival, and numerous reviews have called it Fox Searchlight's "Oscar-gem," and I think we know how Fox Searchlight's films have fared at the Oscars recently! Also, you may want to consider Joseph Gordon-Levitt's chances for Best Actor! So just sayin, I think you should highly consider putting (500) Days of Summer in the Top 10!
When I look at the debates and readjustments for the potential nominess so far for the 10 slots, i realize that i really hate this change.
Alex... i view 2002's slightly female roster as an anomaly because in Oscar history it is. There are other years like it here and there where the Best Picture lineup tilts female (1977 pops into mind) but overall, at least in modern times, it's a detriment in the Oscar race to be a "woman's picture"
sad but statistically true.
a lot of that probably has to do with their being more men in AMPAS than women. the acting branch might be 50/50 with the sexes, but we know for example that the directorial branch is over 90% male and many technical branches are also mostly male
The Pixar/female debate was had weeks ago.
Just a thought though... if An Education, Bright Star, Amelia and The Hurt Locker get nominated for best picture (or even three of the four) and not one female director gets nominated? That's gonna sting the Academy more than The Dark Knight being snubbed.
I can't help but wonder if "Inglorious Basterds" will play a larger role in the Best Picture than has been foreseen so far. It's a WWII film with a largely male cast. It's directed by Quentin Tarantino, a popular contemporary director, with a screenplay speculated to be his best. Also the plot about Jewish soldiers/civilians taking revenge on Nazis might strike a chord with audiences and voters.
It also has the combined support of Universal and the Weinstein Company behind it. Even though each studio has their prospects with "Public Enemies" and "Nine", respectively, the August release date might give enough time for a solid campaign to emerge. Other points that could help its BP chances: Brad Pitt and his performance, Tarantino's relationship with Harvey Weinstein and the fact that they haven't honored one of his films (except Robert Forster's performance) in 15 years. All speculation of course :)
I don't think it would sting them at all. Even those of us who think about their own awards rarely think about women as "best directors" the same way we don't really think of men as "best costume designers" and I wouldn't blame Academy for this - just look at your "best" lists. What's more, women don't often get to direct films that catch Academy's eye.
At least we should be happy they didn't f*** up with Jane Campion in 1993. Hadn't it been for Spielberg, who was also deserving, she would have won.
I think Mira Nair will get in IF "Amelia" is one of their top choices, but the trailer looks awful to me, and not because of Hillary.
wayne... i meant to put that in the top 25 oops -fixing it now.
And I can't see QT getting awards' traction if Cannes didn't love his film. Yup, it is WWII, but it's not serious and it never actually seems serious, which ruins it's chances.
Hey Nat, you haven't pushed Meryl into lead yet?
I didn't think I could dislike Swank more then I already did , but seeing Pfeiffer pushed out by her does it;-) I have to agree with it thou, it's a too baity role not to get a nomination for.
It's a shame though, I think Pfeiffer was really good in Chéri and even the movie wasn't as bad as all that.
I thought Emily Watson had a good chance at a nomination, but I'm not thinking Within the Whirlwind will be released in theaters this year, if at all. I wonder if there's been any effort to get it American distribution...
Regarding Pfeiffer, "I find your lack of faith disturbing." :) (Is it too early for a Vader reference?) Just kidding of course but I am more confident in Pfeiffer's nomination than either Cornish, Sibide or Watson. The buzz might be quiet now but give a few months and a DVD release around consideration time might give her that boost.
Nat, don't censor HILARY'S photo in the predictions page!!!!! we can't see her!!!!!
:( :( :( :(
:( :( :( :(
:mad:
So are we still counting on Streep going Supporting for Julia and Julia?
Otherwise, I like the Actress predictions, even though I'm holding out with Swank (you do the reverse psychology, and I will will her not to be nominated.) :)
Kristin -- haven't puyshed meryl into lead because of her other lead role this year. until the studio officially says "lead" i'm leaving it as is.
I work as a critic in Seattle and had a discussion after the recent Public Enemies screening with the other ones in the area. No one loved it as a whole, though we all appreciated the shooting of the gunfights and prison breaks. Narratively though, the film is a dud, with zero character. I would be very surprised to see it nominated, especially since it has months to go until it can be nominated.
i think swanks in and a threat for another win in a weak year could she be one of the first to reach 3 b4 40.
mrripley... who says it's a weak year?
I actually think its gonna be a strong year in many categories. I also think females are gonna have a good year. Good actresses and directors.
i do.none of the supposed top 10 perfs coming our way that nat has on his list insprire or intrigue or get me hot for the performance.
But you haven't seen those performances... so you can't call it a weak year. All could be very, very good.
Everyone's sleeping on "The Hurt Locker" right now. I think that it has a good shot of making the top ten, especially if it can pick up some critics awards at the end of the year. I'd take out "Bright Star" and "An Education" for the top ten list and replace them with some combination of "Amelia," "The Hurt Locker", and "Shutter Island." A comedy needs to be in the mix too. "500 Days of Summer" could be the go to film there.
No way. An education seems like a good, strong movie. It will probably be nominated. It seems deserving. Bright star is probably gonna be like the new atonement. Its a romance movie and I can't think of another good anticipated romance movie. The plot makes it seem ordinary but maybe it'll be good. Amelia seems typical, predictable and nothing special. Hurt locker and shutter island will probably be good.
"500 Days of Summer" is the romance movie.
I think that "An Education" will be considered too small, insular, and British for BP traction. It's best shots are with Carey Mulligan and screenplay. That's why I'm not including it in my BP predictions.
"500 Days of Summer" is the romance movie.
I think that "An Education" will be considered too small, insular, and British for BP traction. It's best shots are with Carey Mulligan and screenplay. That's why I'm not including it in my BP predictions.
Just saw Cheri yesterday... I usually agree with most of your taste in everything... I am glad you readjusted Best Actress... MP should never have been there in the first place. I adore Streep, but I can concur that she can do a bad pic ( "Prime" ) and turn in a mediocre performance .. you, I think, were blinded by your love for Michelle...
There were 3 good things about Cheri: the costuming, the scenery, and mostly, that it was a short movie.. All of the actors were out of their element. The very few people who were at the theater we attended laughed at some of the parts.
I, too, think it is a little early to go too far out on a limb... for example, the Streep movie from Nancy Meyers is still being shot... so let the dust settle ... however, I totally enjoy seeing who you think is worthy, because it gives me a gauge as to look forward to viewing.
well little miss sunshine and Juno started out as small movies but were still nominated and when was being British a bad thing. Anyway, I've heard (500) days of summer being described as anti-romance and if it made the list it would be considered the comedy.
Rick I by no means thinks Chéri is a great movie. And I can admit when Pfeiffer is bad (see: that last scene in The Story of Us or most of her Up Close and Personal performance) but i liked her in Chéri.
that said i know that people will always view any opinion i have of a Pfeiffer movie with suspicion and that's ok. I accept it.
others i enjoyed (500) Days of Summer a lot but it's the type of movie that would require significant sleeper hit status to get into any sort of awards race.
we'll see but i think it probably skews too young for the Oscar crowd.
1. Yeah, small British films are hardly a bad thing - The Queen, The Full Monty. I'd also argue that with the way people in English language films travel back and forth makes the point somewhat moot. Finding Neverland: American money, director, leading man, British money, writer, cast, story as an example.
2. Isn't An Education supposed to be light? It's not frothy or anything, but Gosford Park light? That stated, all you have to do is look at 2005's line-up to realize the academy can go grim.
3. Glenn's fear is also mine. I think the one advantage that Bigelow has (of the four of them) is that her work seems like an obvious pick for critics as war films contain OBVIOUS direction, and this one is as acclaimed as any in recent history. Wouldn't it be funny if Bigelow got nominated but Cameron didn't? Small biopics tend to be okay as well (Capote, The Queen), but not always. I do wonder how much it'll sting if those films don't make money.
i'm of course heading right over to see your best pic predicts -- i updated mine last night -- it was kind of fun to pick the ten nominees.
Howler, if there are four films directed by women nominated and none of the actual directors are shortlisted too? It's a bit different to when there aren't any movies or there's only one directed by a woman in contention and they snub her (whoever "her" may be).
I didn't say that being a small British film was a bad thing or anything of the sort. But nominating "An Education" for BP would be like nominating "Mrs. Henderson Presents" for BP, and even in a top ten field, I don't see that happening at all.
really, not even in a top ten feild? The acting is really good, the directing is supposedly good. It got good reviews and out of all the films being predicted to be in the top ten right now, this film seems just as good as any if them. If it was still five films to be nominated then I might doubt it but since its ten it seems very possible.
Yeah, really.
Al... i think the big difference is that An Education has the kind of reviews that most movies would kill for. The kind that Mrs. Henderson Presents didn't come anywhere close to getting.
Best Actress GG comedy/musical predix :
Meryl Streep - UNMP
Renee Zellweger - My one and only
Zoe Deschanel - 500 days of summer
Maya Rudolph - Away we go
Uma Thurman - Motherhood
Alt :
Ellen Page - Whip it
Evan Rachel Wood - Whatever Works
Graham, hopefully that GG goes to ellen page. Atleast I hope so, God also agrees.
"hopefully that GG goes to ellen page. Atleast I hope so, God also agrees."
Only because she didn't won for "Juno" in 2008? First: I saw "juno" twice and this is a movie which aged so bad... One of the most overrated films in the History, also Ellen Page performance. Why all the critics in first view aclaimed a simplistic and ordinary performance like this. Second: That GG, in any case, belongs to Laura Linney or Amy Adams
Either way, I'm keeping my BP predictions the way that they are currently.
anonymous,
First: I'm not saying she should win just because she didnt win it for Juno (2007). I want her to win bcuz I'm a fan. I wasn't even serious. Second: why would you bash a movie I obviously like? What's your problem? Is it bcuz a movie you don't like was successful? The movie isn't even two years old and your saying it didnt age well. I've watched it about ten times and I still love it. I notice jokes that I didnt notice before and I learn something new after every veiwing. If you didnt like it the first time chances are you won't like it again. Don't say it didnt age well just bcuz your opinion didnt change. Third: this is definatly not the most
overrated movie in history. Out of all the films this one is at the top? Just bcuz people around you and critics liked it but you didnt doesn't mean its overrated. Don't be ridiculous. What critics called ellen pages performance ordinary? Every review I heard and read about her just praised her performance of Juno. She was Juno. I think she was excellent. I think she was natural and never seemed forced. She handled a very original and stylized script perfectly and portrayed every emotion perfectly. When she had to be serious, heartbroken, humorous, surprised, angry, vulnerable, or in love she was and she was believable. Fourth: I like laura linney. If she gets the GG instead if ellen, fine. I won't be mad or bitter. Amy Adams is also good but why does she have to win? Only bcuz she didnt win before?
If "The Road" gets decent reviews, I'm betting Viggo gets a lot of the credit for the heavy lifting, no? And the second nod should be easier.
I'm kind of surprised that Patty Clarkson fell 14(!) spots down your roster. Every review I've read seems to make a point of expressing that she's the best part of the movie and that can help with a supporting campaign. Her first nomination was for a middling film; "Shutter Island" might give her some extra traction too.
The 10 nominees was bad enough, but what they are doing to the honorary winners is too much. They obviously are more concerned with the Oscars as a TV show than they are with them as an award honoring achievement. I may end up boycotting all film awards this season.
I am surprised that you didn't mention Tilda Swinton in the Best Actress line-up.
(If I missed it .. my apologies!)
i wouldn't rule out Rabbit Hole getting a 2009 release.
Nate, having read Shutter Island, Mortimer's role is really small.
I really hope you are wrong about Daniel Day-Lewis. He deserves more than 4 nominations. I don't know if what I am about to say is a good argument but, if Richard Gere was able to win the Globe for Chicago, isn't DDL able to get an Oscar nod for Nine?
PS: I recently found out that the record for "youngest to get 2 nominations" is Lansbury and not Winslet. I guess she now holds 2 records (the other one being Tony related). Kate ofcourse has the record for 3, 4 etc
I would to see Emily Blunt getting some recognition this year for "The Young Victoria."
Jim, what does Richard Gere winning the Globe have to do with Day-Lewis getting an Oscar nomination. Gere didn't receive an Oscar nomination after winning the Globe (as well as SAG nom).
I removed Emily Mortimer from my predictions after the trailer debut. She had no scenes (besides the picture they showed) and she wasn't even in the cast billing block (which I believe went DiCaprio, Ruffalo, Clarkson, Kingsley, Williams and von Sydow). Looks she really has a very, very small role.
Morgan... it's a small role but she's the main focus of the plot and when she does appear (supposedly) it's meaty stuff.
i'm not saying she'll be nominated but... i wouldn't entirely rule her out based on the trailer since to show her would be giving away quite a lot in terms of spoilers (or so i hear)
Nathaniel, I'm hoping you can answer a question about the Art Direction category for me. I've been confused for a while. How are the nominees in this category listed in film credits? Are they the Production Designer, or the Art Director or say the Set Decorator? Thanks in advance to you or anyone who can make it a little clearer for me.
kat i always list the production designer on my pages only (it makes it easier and it's usually just one name) but my understanding is that the nomination actually goes to the production designer and to the set decorator, skipping the art director despite the title of the prize since the production designer is in charge.
I think Monsters vs. Aliens is highly rated there. Number 3? I was kind of hoping for it to drop to, at least, number 5. Coraline was very well received, Ponyo is from the master Miyazaki and even 9is getting a lot of interested reactions, generating a lot of buzz. Monsters vs. Aliens on the other hand, it's almost a fact that it's an "ok kiddie movie". Even if box office is big there, I don't see it making the top 5, let alone top 3, in front of Ponyo and Coraline AT LEAST.
Can "Up" be nominated for Best Picture and Best Animated Feature?
Nathaniel - You watched "500 Days of Summer", do you think it's capable of earning enough fervent support to propel it into the race?
Call me a plant call me whatever you want, but I've worked in 'The Last Station' and all I can say is that Christopher Plummer and Helen Mirren will be nominated, same as screenplay, art direction and costumes. Helen Mirren is superb as the SUFFERING WIFE, she cries a lot, she goes mad and she ***************SPOILERS******************
loses 5 babies!!!!
well that wasn't a clear spoiler since it comes in TOLSTOY's biography.
It's really a BAITY FILM. Believe me.
now I'm very excited for the movie "Precious"(or was) but I'm worried.... a lot. Tyler perry? He's involved and so is oprah but I think she's just involved because she supports what this film is about and she knows she can give it a lot of exposure but Tyler perry? What did he do for the film? Dear God I'm worried. I absolutely hate all his overly corny work. Is it a Tyler perry film? I heard on the View he talked about it like it was his. Its lee daniels, isn't it? I'm losing confidence and excitement for the film.
I was going to tell you the same, Nathaniel. Helen Mirren's role in 'The Last Station' is baitier than Meryl's, Sigourney's and Saoirse's roles. We agree that MONIQUE is in, because the raves justify her buzz, but Helen's character (the suffering wife) and every year we have a suffering wife nominated:
2000:
- Marcia Gay Harden in POLLOCK
2001:
- Jennifer Connelly in A BEAUTIFUL MIND
- Marisa Tomei in IN THE BEDROOM
2002:
- Julianne Moore in THE HOURS
2003:
- Shohreh Aghdashloo in HOUSE OF SAND AND FOG
- Marcia Gay Harden in MYSTIC RIVER
2004:
- Laura Linney in KINSEY
- Sophie Okonedo in HOTEL RWANDA
2005:
- Reese Witherspoon in WALK THE LINE
- Michelle Williams in BROKEBACK MOUNTAIN
2006-2007:
- NO
2008:
- Marisa Tomei in THE WRESTLER
Tyler Perry didn't have a single thing to do with the making of "Precious", and neither did Oprah. They are a promotional tool and nothing more. No need to draw fire where there is none.
drew7, thanks for telling me. I don't mind oprah since more people will probably go see the movie because of her but Tyler perry is a monster that should be hung. But I read that he's a executive producer and if this movie wins a oscar for best picture they get the oscars. If thats true I wont know what to think.
A few random notes:
Do we know that there are any original songs in the film version of "Nine?"
Re "Chéri," I think the big problem with the film was that Chéri himself was miscast; he had zero chemistry with the rest of the cast, particularly with Michelle Pfeiffer.
Speaking of "Chéri," I'd like to see Alexandre Desplat get a best score nomination for this. I think he's the best film composer who's been nominated and who's never won, though IMHO he should have won for both "The Queen" and "Benjamin Button."
Finally, any chance that "Two Lovers" can get some sort of major nomination, especially Joaquin Phoenix as best actor? He was amazing in this!
The Milkman you don't have to tell me about the longsuffering wife rule. I'm the one that popularized that rule in Oscar prognostication (round about 2000 when i told everyone Marcia Gay Harden would be nominated though many questioned it since the precursors had not been kind)
but it's good to hear more people coming out and saying The Last Station will be something. I've been getting some heat all year for having it in my charts (you'll notice it's absent elsewhere)
Bill yes NINE has an original song (confirmed) at least one. But i can't remember if there's two.
wayne b there's no rule against being nominated in both animated and best picture. it just hasn't happened yet is all.
as for (500) Days it will have crazed fans for sure but i think it skews a little young for mucho Oscar love. On the other hand if it really catches on with the public I could see it getting some traction. There's always the Comedy Globe race.
Just saw "Public Enemies"... neither the movie or Johnny Depp will get an Oscar nod.
The movie is tiresome... no writing to speak of ... and we care nothing for the characters, because we learn very little about them. I am a huge Depp fan and was disappointed i this one.
I have to say that...
the winners will be...
PICTURE: The Road
DIRECTOR: John Hillcoat, THE ROAD
ACTOR: Morgan Freeman, INVICTUS
ACTRESS: Carey Mulligan, AN EDUCATION
SUPPORTING ACTOR: Kodi Smit-McPhee, THE ROAD
SUPPORTING ACTRESS: Mo'Nique, PRECIOUS
ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY: Up
ADAPTED SCREENPLAY: An Education
CINEMATOGRAPHY: The Road
FILM EDITING: The Lovely Bones
SOUND: The Road
SOUND EDITING: Avatar
VISUAL FX: Avatar
ART DIRECTION: Nine
COSTUMES: The Last Station
MAKEUP: Star Trek
SCORE: Up
SONG: Nine
ANIMATED: Up
DOCUMENTARY: The September Issue
FOREIGN: Broken Embraces (SPAIN)
rick i wouldn't count out Public Enemies just yet. It has very ardent fans already and you need those to make it through awards season. I do feel i overestimated it at first but you never know. Especially since we haven't seen any of its competitors yet (other than UP of course)
On the "original song" and "original score" category - what do you think of the possibility that, after A.R.Rahman's wins, all Bollywood films are going to be entered into these categories? Even with the strike there'll probably still be about 25 Bollywood films released in the U.S. this year. I for myself really love the soundtrack to Luck By Chance. And Rahman himself scored Delhi 6, which was released earlier this year.
Ah-Ha! Now I understand. Thanks for that information Nathaniel.
patrick i think people will try surely but i suspect Hollywood's interest in real Bollywood or Bollywood influenced cinema will last as long as there interest in wuxia after Crouching Tiger Hidden Dragon, i.e. not too damn long.
I've got one thing to say to Stanley Tucci: now that his Prada co-stars are now Academy members, he's sure to get at least three votes.
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