Since April's predictions, three things have happened concerning this category.1. Mo'Nique's buzz continued to grow for Precious (formerly Push: Based on the Novel by Sapphire... why hasn't the IMDB changed this title? It's been weeks, nay, months)
2. The NINE trailer debuted and surprisingly it hung on Judi Dench's dry humor and Fergie's vocals rather than on Daniel Day-Lewis or his three paramours (Cruz / Kidman / Cotillard)
3. Cannes didn't do much for Imelda Staunton's buzz for Taking Woodstock. Though folks in the know expect reaction outside of Cannes to be more favorable since the film is light and funny. Cannes isn't so big on light and funny.
Dench could still be tripped up should she not win "best in show" reviews or if the film disappoints. But Mo'Nique is good to go. We already know that Precious doesn't disappoint. More and more people are fans. I suspect it will be a major player at the fall festivals (Toronto & New York) before its theatrical launch.
UPDATED PREDIX - Supporting Actress
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26 comments:
Hmm. I don't think Roan will be going supporting. From early test screenings, it sounds as if she's a definite lead.
Could you point me to the link where Spielberg says that about her? Thanks!
I like the rest of the predictions; here's hoping Kidman can sneak in.
((where he says she is going to win the Oscar))
I gotta admit... I was hesitant about Precious when I heard the Sundance buzz, but after seeing the trailer I am pretty excited.
I also like Monique... which reminds me of that excellent banner you made with her and Chris Evans back when Push came out. Bring it back Nathaniel!!!
I never thought Ronan would be leading...because in the book, she just had several flashbacks and walked around in heaven..I thought her sister was the meatier role.
Fox... you'll just have to go back to that page to see it. Just chase the Mo'Nique label ;) and scroll down.
I figured that Meryl would go lead for "J&J". It'd be crazy if she managed two nods for this and the Nancy Meyers project in lead. But if that film's a mess (which sounds like it might), I could see them going lead for her in "J&J" and make Amy Adams go supporting.
Okay, question:
Why did Patty Clarkson fall so far? Her trailer debuted, she looks like the best part of the film, and it's still a Woody Allen movie for which she's already won excellent Best Supporting Actress reviews. What puts someone like Streep (who is looking more and more like a co-lead every minute) ahead of her in this category?
Hayden -- that's just my pessimism. Patty & Woody being two of my all time favorites. But yeah an Oscar competition between Meryl & Patty and Patty loses.
If you move Meryl out of this category see, she'd still be predicted.
Fabrizzio, that's what I thought too, but people who have read the screenplay say that the sister's role isn't that interesting. So I guess it's been changed from the book. No Susan Surandon for supporting actress? I could see her getting in for playing grandma.
~Lily
i think dench is one of the certainties for nine they love her and no nom for the past couple years so the time is right,nine will be big come awrds time its dench doing what she does best 'quips',her scenes are with ddl,i think lock status will be quick once the film released id nom her just from the trailer.
I want to hear Dench sing first and then we talk ;-) the only certainty for me is Mo'Nique - she really gives a great perfomance in Precious, even if I didn't like the film as much as all the critics at Sundance ( or Cannes for that matter ).
Is it too crazy to predict Helena Bonham Carter in Alice in Wonderland? You know, the Red Queen. Juicy juicy role, maybe a pop choice, like Depp in Pirates?
Er, Kathy Bates in Chéri? Please no!
In this as of yet unseen state, I'm rooting for Mo'nique, Dench, Clarkson, Williams, Cruz and Ronan. Because I like them.
I still refuse to believe that la Meryl will be put in supporting. Again, please no!
You find room for most of the Nine ladies but leave out Hudson and Ferguson. Hudson could be a 'return to former glory' type situation while Ferguson could be a 'breakout of the year' type situation.
"12 Mariah Carey Precious (never nominated) NEW
I'm as surprised as you are."
hahaha
I would love to see that happen actually, she looks perfect in the trailer!
I think Ronan will be lead. I thought the studio said that they're campaigning both Ronan and Rachel Weisz in Lead?
I think Patricia Clarkson has a good chance unless the Academy needs a break from Woody Allen after Cruz's win. If that happens, I'm pulling for a nom for CAIRO TIME, where she is lead.
I guess my point is, why would the Academy suddenly decide to downgrade Meryl Streep in the case of a borderline-lead performance? I don't dispute her status as a contender, but in Supporting Actress? The AMPAS had the chance to do that for The Devil Wears Prada if they really wanted to.
And as much as I adore SigWeavy and love that you're keeping her around, I still think Patty Clarkson deserves a spot in the top 5.
I'm kind of surprised that people are hesitating on predicting Patty because of the Penelope Cruz win, mostly because of the 94/95 winners.
Patty = Dianne Wiest
Penelope = Mira Sorvino
That equation works out, doesn't it?
Based on the screenplay anyway...Ronan definately is the clear lead imo...i think it'd be kinda unacceptable if the academy labeled her a supporting performance. Yes...she's a teen, but she's already been nomianted before...so i think that barrier's broken. We'll see though.
Oh Em Gee! Sigourney! That would be freaking amazing if that happened! I'm geeking out hardcore I know...
There is no doubt that Dench can sing, adelutza. She has proven that on Broadway and in London many a time.
Obviously the film could stink but if it doesn't, she strikes me as its one surefire nomination in the big categories.
BTW, imBd is listing Don Roos' film as "Love and Other Impossible Pursuits" (instead of 17 Photos of Isabel). Not a title that runs trippingly off the tongue.
Did You see a clip on Youtube where it shows a Mariah Carey scene in the Move Precious? It's pretty interesting. Although Idk why the person titled it "Precious film trailer spanish subbed" considering it wasn't even a trailer but a scene from the film <.<
I must be the only person who has not been catching Precious fever. My boyfriend is really excited about it. I just watched the trailer and all I could think was... well, excuse me for this: "funny drama." I have no better way to phrase it.
For example:
You know the part in Monster's Ball when Halle Berry's kid gets hit by a truck in the rain and dies? I laughed. Because I was so uncomfortable. It was just drama overload, and so much drama heaped up and dredged through in such a short amount of time, so much victimhood and sadness and grief that I thought it was unrealistic and... well, funny. This doesn't happen to anyone. It's the stuff of negative fantasy as seen through the victim of American culture of victimhood, tragedy adapted stylistically to jibe with what's popular, to pander to the right people.
I get the same vibe out of Precious. It's the kind of movie I see myself watching and quietly shaking my head at the dramatic tension and growing bored and emotionally detached from. Especially based on what I seem to know about it (and correct me if I'm wrong):
-The protagonist is HIV Positive, has a kid, is pregnant with another kid, is a teenager, is morbidly obese, is abused by her father, having her father's baby, and abused by her mother, all whilst living in destitute poverty. Sorry, but WHOA. That sounds like a 5 minute movie to me wherein the heroine kills herself in the opening scene.
-Lenny Kravitz, Mariah Carey, Mo'Nique, and some unremarkable lady who plays a social worker (The one that says, "I love you.") are all in it and apparently I'm supposed to take them all serious as actors. Now I'm not a snob, and I don't go on names alone, but that does seem to steer me away immediately. Add in the Tyler Perry/Oprah Winfrey tags and I'm spent on patience.
-The lighting and film quality looks horrendous and apparently they are just going to shroud Mo'Nique in smoke and orange light the entire movie. This is supposed to be a gritty movie taking place in some perceived dramatic real world, yet the entire movie looks like it take place inside a toaster (or inside a room with closed venetian blinds on an overcast day).
-There's an inspiring teacher character. (gag)
I can't think of anything else to say except that I will try to give this movie a chance and I'll probably see it. And all the above said, I haven't seen it, so I guess I don't know whether its good or not, just as those who have been heaping adulation on it don't know. The trailer, though, makes me want to blind myself.
Janice... hmmm. as far as i recall that's the title of the book it's based on so they're moviing back to that? so many movies changin' their names.
i still think Meryl's inevitable 3rd Oscar will be in lead.
it's the inevitable 4th :) that'll likely be for supporting
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