... regarding the Oscar nominations? I think I need to update my predictions. Although there's always a danger in taking late breaking buzz too seriously given how many ballots have long since been filled out.
P.S. I will be live blogging the BFCA Awards on Friday night. Be here if you can for the virtual party.
Tuesday, January 12, 2010
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Nine out of the Best Picture lineup for, perhaps, District 9. Also, what I would like, Sam Rockwell for best actor. But that's not happening.
I don't think Clooney, Firth, Bridges, Freeman and Renner will be the final 5. Something will happen.
10 best film mayhem! some semi important film is going to be snubbed, and a big deal is going to be made about it. I just know that this 10 best films thing is a big mistake!
I think the top 8 (your top 8) are pretty much set for the big show, but what to get the next two? I think "District 9" is now more likely than not. And my guess for last is either "Crazy Heart" or "500 Days." The latter has been on slow burn the entire season, and "Crazy Heart" reminds me of "The Queen" or "Frost/Nixon"-- the sort of thing Oscar voters like more than us, and have certainly been hearing about.
Sucks that the top 5 is better than the second 5, which I would have guessed would be unlikely when the ten thing was announced.
Also, I think you're way overestimating Eastwood's chances. I'd say he's done. If there's a surprise director, I'd say Scherfig or Blomkamp
well nine is entirely out (best pic, actress, supporting actress), isn't it? With the bad reviews and the bad numbers, there's no chance.
invictus is about to fall out, kruger will take a suporting nod, nine out except cinematography and costumes, star trek for best picture, a serious man in the 1o
Also, I would like to wake up Academy morning and have a TOTALLY RANDOM supporting actor morning. The faves so far, except Waltz, are a from a bunch of total randos from movies that are either unseen or unliked. The votes are probably really spread thin already, and a few movies just hitting their stride could really get performance nods there out of nowhere.
I mean, how cool would a Mackie/Bruhl/Law/Geraghty lineup be? Okay, that's pushing it, but still, that category's ripe for an upset or two.
I feel like Samantha Morton and Diane Kruger are now in for Supporting...Julianne Moore is out along with someone from Nine.
Surprise Best Actor? Brad Pitt
My latest hunch is to be steadfast in my resolve that AMPAS's taste hasn't improved. No District 9, no Star Trek, no (500) Days.
Let's not overestimate the Academy here. I still think Invictus is in. But that 10th spot is still a mystery. I haven't seen it yet but I don't get why A Single Man isn't a stronger contender? Especially with 2 potential acting nominations and a lot of positive reaction.
Forseeing an out-of-nowhere Actress nomination for Melanie Laurent.
Also think that (500) Days of Summer will be a Picture nominee
Crazy Heart and/or Julie and Julia are Adapted possibilities
Don't think Avatar is the film to beat for Best Picture. I don't think there is a film to beat
Nine falls out of Picture
Lots more, but those are the ones that stick out to me right now
- Shohreh Aghshladoo is nominated for The Stoning of Soraya M
- The Last Station is completely snubbed
- Abbie Cornish surprises (instead of Aghshladoo)
- Bright Star recieves a Best Picture Nomination
- Crazy Heart recieves Best Picture Nomination
- Up snubbed for Picture
- Hal Holbrook surprises
- Mary and Max gets Best Animated Feature
- Diane Kruger and Samantha Morton make Supporting Actress
- Nine recieves Best Picture nomination
Crazy Heart seems likely to get a Best Pic nominee of the buzz keeps building.
Jason Reitman, Quentin Tarantino, Kathryn Bigelow, and James Cameron will all win Oscars, but in different categories.
Reitman for Adapted Screenplay.
Tarantino for Original Screenplay.
Bigelow for Best Director.
Avatar for Best Picture (Producer).
Peter Capaldi for BSA.
One can dream.
District 9 can easily be in the top 10... or not. But the fact it's in the conversation AT ALL makes me very happy. And I'll either be really pleased or really disappointed come nomination morning.
Matt Damon getting an Actor nod for THE INFORMANT instead of a Supporting Actor nod for INVICTUS would be fun.
Tilda Swinton surprising in that utterly boring Best Actress line-up (presumably taking Mirren's preordained spot).
I would LOVE IT if Peter Capaldi snuck into the Supporting Actor lineup for IN THE LOOP.
I'm kind of feeling that the Best Picture slave is going to be a little more across-the-board boring than we're all hoping/predicting. I would love to see District 9 get a nod but I just can't see it happening. I would like to think, for example, that Invictus is out, but I think I'm being overly optimistic about that...
The Last Station is completely snubbed and Anthony Mackie slips in to the Best Supporting Actor nominees.
I don't think it's too likely, but Sewinton would be so cool!
Freeman and Damon get left out for 'Invictus'.
Saw "Avatar" with the missus (my third, her first...she was taking care of her convalescing mother), and I still think it has a chance at ten nominations. That would be the eight that Nathaniel has on his predictions, plus wild cards for Original Screenplay (hey, with a WGA nomination, it has a chance) and, possibly, Best Actress for Zoe Saldana. I watched this time particularly for her performance, and I agree that all motion capture did was capture the non-verbal nuances any performer would use to express emotion and meaning. And the performance is worthy of recognition. I also do not think that Cinematography is out of reach.
I love the variablility of the acting races due to the time gap between precursors and Oscar nods.
Best Actress seems pretty set.
Best Actor - Renner could be toppled, and so could Freeman, but for who?
Supporting Actress - apart from Mo'Nique, everyone is in danger, and there's Kendrick, Farmiga, Morton, Moore, Kruger, Laurent, Cruz or Cotillard available. Something weird could happen with that much open space. Dench? And the only reason it's so volatile is Kruger's SAG nomination and the Weinstein's girls' category confusion.
Supporting Actor is even weirder - Damon, Harrelson, Plummer, Tucci and Waltz are the main names, but Damon, Plummer and Tucci still feel like longshots. McKay, Mackie and Molina don't seem any likelier. There could be a big surprise in this category. (Baldwin? Paul Schneider a la Michael Shannon last year?)
for now, all i know is i'm going crazy with all the talk about 'avatar' being the one to beat.
i liked the film and i have it in my top ten and it's an enjoyable film, but best picture of the year? really?
i totally want to see the messenger in the best picture lineup (not happenning, right?) and even moreso, samantha morton in supp. actress (maybe?)
also, i'm still hoping somehow stanley tucci's work in 'the lovely bones' and sandra bullock get snubbed. but i guess that won't happen.
I forgot to mention Damon for The Informant. With Renner and Freeman volatile, it could happen. Lately, the surprise Best Actor nom has come from someone who was on the supporting bubble but totally underestimated in lead (see Tommy Lee Jones, Terrence Howard.)
Stanley Tucci for Julie & Julia instead. That'd be interesting.
I think we will see a lot of categories that will be completely different. Especially the supporting categories. They will be all jumbled up with a few surprises here and there.
Hoping for a Star Trek nom. I thought it was just as fun (if not funner) than Avatar. Sure, Avatar has all those 3D visuals, but I thought it lagged and was overlong; a bit been-there-done-that. If anything, I hope Avatar doesn't get a screenplay nod. But yeah, of the sci-fi trifecta, Star Trek all the way for me. There's a distinct possibility.
And who knows, wouldn't it be majorly exciting if more than one animated picture makes the BP lineup? It would certainly make history. Sci-fi trio and two animated features up for Best Picture... that could be pretty cool.
~Steven
Nine out for Picture with District 9 in. And possibly Invictus out for Star Trek.
The Last Station snubbed - seriously, was that film even released anywhere? Melanie Laurent sneaks into Supporting and hopefully Julianne Moore, too. I can even see An Education slipping out for Best Picture.
Could Freeman fall out of the Best Actor race? The buzz is as silent as Nine's box-office pull.
"Fantastic Mr Fox" to get three nominations (Animated Feature, Score and Adapted Screenplay) in a rare case of the Academy embracing a movie that flopped.
"Inglourious Basterds" getting two supporting actress noms... over "Up in the Air"? Wouldn't that be a hoot! I don't think it'll happen, but I can dream.
I'm not talking about nominations, but of wins. How cool would it be if the main 8 Oscars go to different films?
-Avatar for picture
-Hurt Locker for director
-Up in the Air for A.Screenplay
-Inglorious Basterds for -O.Screenplay (This film would repeat for Supporting actor, though)
-Precious for Supporting Actress
-An Education or Julie&Julia for Best Actress
-and Crazy Heart for Best Actor.
That would be interesting. Highly unlikely, but interesting. It would be nice that a film is not considered the "best" in everything. I think we all got tired of that last year.
Someone mentioned a Last Station snub. You beat me to it!
I'm actually predicting snubs for both this and Nine in the major categories.
The Last Station really f**ed up (pardon my French). Virtually NO release, hardly a campaign? I think too many are taking the Helen Mirren nod as a given. Who is talking about this performance? The same can be said about "The Young Victoria," arguably, but Blunt is young and up and coming. I can see some with a push to vote for her. What's the motivation to vote for Mirren, who just won, in a film that not a lot of people saw? I think Plummer's out. I know he's overdue, but they've never respected him. Why start now? And (again) for a film no one saw? I'm not feeling this.
I think that Moore is out for supporting actress, as are any of the nine girls. The top three spots are locked up with Mo'Nique, Farmiga and Kendrick. I predict that Melanie Laurent and Samantha Morton round off that category.
And for all of those teasing me with talk of "Invictus" snubs, please don't get my hopes up. Please. I've resigned myself to the fact that Eastwood is getting in over Lee Daniels. I've made peace with it. That way, when it happens, the blow is not so hard. If it doesn't, hey...nice surprise on nomination morning. Damn it. Hopes officially up.
Up seems solid and there's nothing too compelling biting at its heels (District 9 and Star Trek replacing Up and Nine is tantalizing but ultimately probably not gonna happen), but I still am not sure if Up is going to get those 1's and 2's. Actually- I'm pretty sure it won't. If there's a big surprise, I say Pixar stays in the animated ghetto for one of District 9 or Star Trek.
Picture: Nine, An Education and Invictus replaced by 500 Days of Summer, Star Trek and District 9.
Director: Cohen Brothers replace Lee Daniels.
Actor and Actress: The top 5 are set in stone.
Supporting Actor: Watlz, Harrelson, Tucci, Plumber and Mackie.
Supporting Actress: Laurent, Morton, Farminga, Kendrick, Monique
Actor: Pitt replaces Freedman.
Actress: Saldana replaces Mirren.
Supporting Actor: Mackie replaces Plumber.
Supporting Actress: Morton replaces Cotillard.
Crazy Heart and 500 Days of Summer crack the top 10, but Invictus stays in due to Mandela/Eastwood love.
Or Star Trek gets in instead of one of them. District 9 a much better film, but too out there for Academy voters. Trek more conventional, and more in line with previous sci-fi/blockbuster nominees.
Melanie Laurent gets a nod. Cruz goes out, but Cotillard stays in. Tucci gets a nod for Julie & Julia instead of Bones.
My hunch is that Stanley Tucci gets nominated for Julie and Julia instead of the Lovely Bones. By all accounts its the better performance and the Streep factor will help
BEST ACTOR
Bridges
Clooney
Damon
Firth
Freeman
BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR
Harrleson
Mackie
Scheider
Tucci
Waltz
ACTRESS
Bullock
Cotillard
Mulligan
Sidibe
Streep
SUPPORTING ACTRESS
Farmiga
Kendrick
Kruger
Mo'Nique
Morton
The three categories with upset potential seem to be Best Actress, Best Picture, and Best Supporting Actor.
I'm still thinking something weird happens in Best Actress-Mirren seems like such a backfiller of a nomination, I suspect that it will be Blunt, but a nomination for Aghdashloo or Swinton in a shocker (they've proven that they like them in the past), wouldn't floor me, especially for the former (who has had a banner year in Hollywood).
Best Picture's going to have one shocker-I think that Nine is out, as well as A Serious Man, and it's going to leave room for District 9, and I'm starting to think something truly shocking, like Star Trek or The White Ribbon.
Best Supporting Actor, as Marsha Mason said, features a bunch of performances that no one is excited about (except Waltz's)-the obvious frontrunners are Damon, Harrelson, Plummer, and Tucci, but a shocker nomination by someone seems possible-perhaps Baldwin if it's not Tucci or Molina if it's not Damon.
I think they could have still nominate Cruz for her two turns... and it means they would show some love also for Broken Embraces (kinda like this Damon year with his two turns that probably means a nod in supporting). I think it's Cotillard who's in danger to miss, still in category confusion. And I don't think they nominate two French at the same time. Laurent and Kruger still can split, same as Cruz and Cotillard. AMPAS members probably don't like Nine, but they can surely recognize "their" actresses. Remember: star power... in this case, Cruz has much more support at AMPAS than Cotillard. I'm not sure about that locks for Kendrick and Farmiga, and I don't know if they actually like Morton more than "their" Moore.
So, I'm predicting: Mo'Nique, Farmiga, Kendrick, Cruz and Laurent.
I have a feeling they would go with Inglorious Basterds in Best Picture and Directing. Just for one reason: Quentin Tarantino. And if you think that's also a Weinsteins' bet... then bingo!
Honestly I don't see three sci-fi movies make the cut. Probably only Avatar, and District 9 is a longshot. But Star Trek? Nope.
This might be crazy enough to work
Brad Pitt is in for supporting!
I know the campaign is for lead but if people see it for the clear ensemble piece that it is he could find himself with another nomination. And the more you watch the movie the stronger his performance becomes.
To everybody who actually see Nine as dead... do you remember the sense of the "studio vote"? or Weinstein influence (aka The Reader nom last year over the überfamous The Dark Knight)? Folks, it's AMPAS, not a critics group.
Laurent and Cotillard nods in 'best supporting' would be good and Swinton instead of Mirren in 'lead'.
'Best Actor' line up seems set but it would be great to see Mortensen or Rockwell acknowledged with a nomination.
I think 'Star Trek' and 'District 9' deserve 'best picture' nods.
Faux -- i agree. I won't be at all surprised to see NINE nominated. But that said, it won't be surprising if it falls either. I still say, as I've said all year despite the chaos elsewhere, that their tastes won't fundamentally change. And their tastes would have to fundamentally change in order to have 3 sci-fi films nominated.
It's their least favorite film genre... and that would almost double the number of sci-fi films that have EVER been nominated. And all in one year ;)
I think people are letting box office popularity and that Producers Guild thing throw them. No way all three of those movies get in. I don't even think 2 of them will... though a nomination for District 9 isn't as unlikely as it once seemed.
I'm wondering about Crazy Heart a lot. I have to remove my own opinion from the issue because almost everyone on the planet seems to love it more than me. So maybe it's in, a little film that could.
What are the Saldana predictions actually based on? She doesn't have a single precursor and didn't make BAFTA's giant list even.
"Surprise" acting nominations have always gone to performances in small films (Laura Linney, Melissa Leo, Samantha Morton types). Actors in big films need precursors.
I hope you all remember that I was the first one to call Melanie Laurent's best actress nomination, back in March. Thank you.
Three women (Julianne Moore/ Diane Kruger/ Samantha Morton) now fighting it out for those last three Supporting Actress slots...
My hunch tells me that Cornish will get the silver medal in 209 film bitch awards.
Um, 2009.
Is Saldana even eligible? Andy Serkis wasn't...
Carey Mulligan > Abbie Cornish
out of nowhere zoe saldana has been thrown into the internet discussion. i loved her in AVATAR but i highly doubt the academy would nominate her. still, i love the hype.
i still feel that marion cotillard is in for best supporting actress. anyone who's seen and dislike NINE ends up loving her performance.
it would be excellent to see either melanie laurent (more likely) or diane kruger nominated, but i just don't think the academy would go for them since other well loved actresses are in the running (julianne moore, penelope cruz and samantha morton).
samantha morton just might sneak just as she did in previous times. she's great in the film and they do like her. she could be the why not vote.
i doubt DISTRICT 9 and, or STAR TREK will get nominated. AVATAR seems enough of a populist vote. like you said, nat, the academy has never really warmed up to the sci-fi genre.
I have a strong feeling of a surprise in both supporting categories. More than 6 contenders fighting for a spot in each category.
For some reason, I also think a surprise will pop up in Actress, not sure what though. Despite her excellent track record so far I'm still not sold on her betting in (or Mirren).
Oh and some very plesant surprises in Best Picture. 3 or even 4 unexpected calls, among them (500) Days of Summer.
Viiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiggo.
Having Flashbacks to 2003 and Morton's strange nomination for In America. It's such a baity role.
Also, 500 Days of Summer to get a BP nom. Doesn't have the prestige but it has a lot of fans, and if Juno managed it in stingier times....?
marion cotillard best supp actress.
I'm definitely feeling a Samantha Morton nom. She didn't have precursors the other times either. It seems very likely to happen, especially now that the category's become so confused, with the 4th and 5th slots being anyone's guess.
I also think Mirren is not safe. Maybe I'm biased for not having seen the film and loving Swinton and Cornish more, but I think someone will surprise here. Blunt, though, feels like a Ryan Gosling in Lars and the Real Girl or Emile Hirsch in Into the Wild type thing that was never destined to pan out. Come to think of it, wasn't it that very year when Tommy Lee Jones popped up literally out of nowhere for a perf that had been assumed would be nommed and then was ignored all season long? I still think Swinton or Cornish (or perhaps Laurent) could surface.
Lead actor, however, is solid. Renner is the only one who seemed vulnerable, but his buzz has only been building. I think it's now him in 4th and Freeman in 5th, but Freeman is just too baity to let go. Viggo and Sam Rockwell will just have to deal.
Supporting actor seems a bit crazy. Wouldn't be shocked to see Mackie get in there. I think Molina in done, though.
Tarantino's not getting in for Director. Karen O might have a chance at a score nomination. Cotillard is out of Leading and Supporting. Kruger over Cruz in Supporting.
And total shot in the dark: Coptley has a chance at a Leading nomination for District 9 solely because the film seems to be peaking at just the right time. I could see it being the "where did that come from" nomination to leave people scratching their heads.
Adam-I agree that we could see a surprise in Best Actress, but I don't feel Cornish at all. Surprise nominees are usually for previous nominees (Linney, Jones, Eastwood in 2004), not for newcomers. Also, I can't imagine she has a lot of goodwill in the pro-Reese Academy. Swinton would be a possibility if there's a left field nominee, but I think Cornish has her shot.
Morton, on the other hand, fits that bill rather nicely-she could certainly score (though with three nominations at that point, she really should get her agent to get a BAITier role-this is a woman whom the Academy wants to give an Oscar).
And one thing to consider with Supporting Actor is the personal factor for Tucci-his wife of fourteen years died in April of cancer, and he's now a single father in Hollywood. He seems likeable enough-I'm guessing all of these extra factors (which really do matter with a community this tight-knit) will likely mean his first Oscar nomination, and that Damon is the most vulnerable of the frontrunner five.
I guess I sort of agree - the closer we get it is difficult to imagine 3 Sci Fi films getting nominated but if one does get in besides AVATAR, STAR TREK seems the more likely to me rather than DISTRICT 9. STAR TREK was a big movie with lots of slick technical achievements AND a story and heart.
But I'm not entirely convinced NINE is down for the count either. It is not nearly the excruciating experience people seem to want to make it out to be and it does have fantastic technical support and a lot of big stars with shining moments and it is all about the movie business. I'm just not sure it won't show up after all.
I also can't imagine INVICTUS not getting nominated. If it doesn't, I will see that as a real indication that things are shifting in the old AMPAS institution.
(500) DAYS is sort of ringing bells for me but I can't quite see what it would replace.
Again, it is very difficult for me to imagine Freeman won't get nominated. He is very well liked in a bio role in a big film - it just reeks of Oscar!
I'm afraid I could see Renner not making it before Freeman. His role in HURT LOCKER is not your typical Oscar role.
I agree - it just seems like Mirren has disappeared. Maybe she's doing stuff in L.A. but I haven't heard about it. I wouldn't mind if someone else slipped in - certainly Cornish would be great(!) but Swinton would be nice too.
But I'm really torn about Plummer in S. Actor. It does seems like such a perfect opportunity to acknowledge this actor after all these years. I mean, it is a bit of category fraud and he is a commanding presence on screen. Did he really piss off the Hollywood elite at some time?
I'm feeling like Cruz won't make the list and that Morton will. She has such a real presence and look and always seems so grounded - a perfect Supporting Actress based on Oscar history. But the Cruz role did have more emotional weight than I expected so I could be wrong. Dench was pretty gutsy in the movie, didn't you think? I mean, doing that number in that costume - I think people in the business are gonna marvel at her courage and panache.
I actually think the S. Actor nominations are not as in turmoil but, again, that's just my gut. But I do think there is a very real possibility that Tucci will get his nomination for JULIE & JULIA rather than BONES. His part in JULIE was more against "type" for him.
It it wasn't for that first sequence in UP I don't think it would get a BP nom but, since that sequence was so touching, I think it will.
I really have no idea what to expect to win Best Picture. I don't really want it to be AVATAR but it is an amazing accomplishment for Cameron and Hollywood has got to be impressed. I'm just not sure HURT LOCKER or UP IN THE AIR are "big" enough to overpower it yet. But, between the two, my gut tells me UP IN THE AIR is the more likely victor. It is getting a lot of press about being "the" movie for our times and Mr. Clooney is getting a lot of press lately in his inimitable way. That recent article in the LA Times about him and Reitman getting to "know" each other through doing the film is just the sort of thing that helps win Oscars!
It doesn't matter who the 10th picture is. The only thing that matters is The Film Bitch Awards! Where are they?!!!!
I sure hope we have some sort of surprise in Best Picture. Didn't they expand it to 10 so that they could have more universal appeal and get more viewers come Oscar day? All the Academy Members who voted for this change better remember why they did it in the first place and vote accordingly. We better not see the "expected" stale mix of films. If they want to change their image, toss us a bone!
I'd like to see (500) Days of Summer, Where the Wild Things Are, or Distric 9 make the list, but understand this is my own wishful thinking. I have the feeling their idea of mixing things up will be nominating Julie & Julia and The Blind Side.
I'd LOVE to see Anthony Mackie get a nomination in the Waltz dominated Supporting Actor category. My daydream of him winning can't happen without a nod from the Academy.
Also, even if Invictus manages to get a Best Picture nod (please NO), I think it will be snubbed in the acting categories.
Someone WILL bump Daniels of the list of directors, but not sure who.
Plummer is a living legend. Can they really snub him again? This is torture!!!
Am I crazy to think Abbie Cornish will get a nod?
I agree with Glenn-
Now that I've seen both "Inglourious Basterds" and "Up in the Air", I'd dearly love to see the two Supporting Actresses from the same movie be Laurent and Kruger, NOT Farmiga and Kendrick. In the same vein, I'd love it if the whole Supporting Actress category had NONE of the front-runners in it.
I'd also like to see Mirren AND Cornish AND Swinton nominated for Best Actress. I don't care who the other two are.
Best Supporting Actor is my favorite category this year because I actually like and respect the frontrunners. I'd like to see Mackie, Molina, Plummer, Waltz and Tucci (for "Julie and Julia".
sandra bullock does NOT get nominated for best actress. an education does NOT get nominated for best picture. anthony mackie DOES get nominated for best supporting actor. stanley tucci gets nominated for best supporting actor in julie & julia and NOT the lovely bones. nora ephron gets a screenplay nomination.
I can't see Star Trek having a shot. I think the main dark horses are District 9 and (500) Days of Summer.
I predict at least one surprise nom in both the Supporting Actress and Supporting Actor categories. Mo'nique and Waltz have hogged all of the precursors, so all of the other "likely" contenders are just guesses, really.
I honestly can't see Avatar winning. The race is between The Hurt Locker and Up in the Air, I think.
And lastly, The Blind Side isn't going to get a Best Picture nomination, right? RIGHT? Someone, console me, quick!
Despite its absense with the guild and precursors I think Bright Star will show up for Best Cinematography. Remember when the Academy pulled The New World out of its magic hat?
Mirren is out and somebody else gets in. Who, I don't know. Maybe, just maybe, Swinton?
Swinton, Cornish or Blunt are the most likely to replace Mirren. I'd actually give the edge to Swinton even though her movie was the smallest. Her win in 2007 was considered a shocker so it might be that the Academy loves her more than the other award groups.
I would love to see if Suppoting Actress Line up :
Mo'Nique
Kendrick
Farmiga
Krueger
Laurent
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