No online prognosticator can wait for Toronto to arrive. Can we get this Oscar season going already? Summer is so so dull for Oscarwatchers.
Who do you think has their finger on the future Academy voters pulse right now? (You don't have to say me). Online pundits think the Best Actor Category is going to pan out like this:
Kris Tapley @ 'In Contention', a new blog (but not a newbie Oscar expert don'cha know), says it'll be Phoenix, Jones, Penn, Straithairn, & Murphy good bets all. Andy @ Everything Oscar counters with Phoenix, Bana, Fiennes, Lane, & Mortenson. Russ @ "And the Oscar Goes To..." thinks Phoenix, Fiennes, Crowe, Mortensen, & Clooney David Poland thinks highly of the chances of Phoenix, Penn, Lane, Bana & Jones. and me? I'm currently going with Phoenix, Fiennes, Jones, Penn, & Straithairn though I do, like Kris, feel that Murphy is a substantial threat just waiting to see if the film is strong enough to support his breakout bid. Had I made my list today I probably woulda bumped him up.
You may notice these are all one-man vanity sites. The two biggest awards sites GoldDerby and Oscarwatch don't really stick their necks out with guesswork just yet. Is it too avoid embarrassment later on or just to wait until there's actually a field of competitors? GoldDerby lists 33 (!!!) contenders in this category. Oscarwatch's practice is to only list those candidates who've already arrived. (Not a bad practice in a way) They see only Russell Crowe Cinderella Man Bill Murray Broken Flowers and Terrance Howard Hustle and Flow as real possibilities so far.
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11 comments:
Feinnes and Phoenix seem pretty definite. Witherspoon can't really be nommed without Phoenix (barring a true shocker) and people are saying Witherspoon's a lock. And Feinnes has a lot of films coming, with one of them probably standing out. I see the NBR embracing him.
Actresswise, I also still think Joan Allen will make it. She just seems like too big a story to go unnoticed. And they like her a lot. Although there was the bizarre Pleasantville snub... but I think the NBR and globes will prop her up and then take credit when she gets a nom. I'm betting on her.
Even though I'm part of the chorus expecting a Phoenix nod I do feel it takes all the fun out of Oscar guesswork if the role automatically warrants a nomination. it's so weird how that happens.
because really, why else was everyone so sure of his dominance? I personally still don't feel like he'll be a leading candidate for the win though. I think it's one of those automatic nominees and nothing else. I still feel like Fiennes is the one to watch as I have all year.
As long as he doesn't implode, Joaquin Phoenix is probably going to turn out to be the greatest actor of his generation, but I think the 2005 Oscar will go to Ralph Fiennes.
Fiennes is also a great actor and he could be viewed as due for a career Oscar. And more importantly, there likely won't be another British contender to split the vote among that wing of the Academy this year. Unless Phoenix or some other American starts a landslide, Fiennes is golden.
I don't much rate Phoenix to be perfectly honest but sadly, I think this role almost guarantees a nomination. Not sure about the win yet. As for Murphy and Strathairn, I'm predicting both of them, though the films are question marks. Also predicting Fiennes for White Countess and also Wilkinson. I've got Lane and Jones close behind.
Am I the only one that doesn't think Munich is a frontrunner here? Spielberg may have done Schindlers List well, but I'm quite uncertain as to how he's gonna handle something like this. It's also quite controversial.
Schindler's List was a B+ film at best. Spielberg is a talented showman, but not a very sophisticated one.
But the Oscars don't usually reward sophisication, so he's a good fit with their middlebrow tastes.
I think we're gonna get a great race once the nods are announced. I;m betting on Jones vs. Phoenix when all is said and done.
Gold Derby gets way too overbearing. Hammond throws out a list of ninety contenders in a category, never truly committing. but that's my take.
I'm really crossing my fingers for Strathairn, and I've been anticipating his nod as the surprise bet to watch all summer.
Fiennes is the real question mark, though. If only because the release pattern for The Constant gardener is so questionable. I don't know what sort of campaign Focus might have in store, but for the time being they're obviously just interested in the money the film can generate.
Crowe I think could survive if the film doesn't, along with Giamatti.
And what I've heard of the Munich script makes it seem entirely grounded and severely "human," which obviously equals acting potential, but I can't go with Bana just yet.
Philip Seymour Hoffman as Truman Capote; now there's a nomination I'd love to see happen.
To Kris,
Fiennes' Oscar nomination will be for The White Countess not The Constant Gardener. I think that also partly explains the Focus release strategy.
Focus must think it's smarter going with Ledger or McFayden than pitting Fiennes in Gardener against Fiennes in Countess.
FWIW the only reason I'm looking forward to a new Pride and Prejudice is for McFayden. The guy can be very moving.
I'm not high on The White Countess at all. Ivory needs to show me something after stuff like The Golden Bowl. And Sony Pictures Classics isn't exactly an Oscar-generating behemoth.
I considered Murphy for a Best Actor nomination awhile ago but held out because of his age. I wonder if that was a mistake.
Anyway, pending the film's any good, it'd be nice to see Murphy get this type of high level attention. He's been good in everything I've seen him in thus far---even "Red-Eye"---, and I can't wait to see what he does with Patrick "Kitten" Brady.
---Andy.
(I really need to get a blog...)
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