Oscar: Where We Stand Now (Supporting Actress)

Part 2 of 4
Last time on "Where We Stand Now" we documented the only current supporting actors who might survive through the fall season to an Oscar nod.

Here's a quick look at the 5 likeliest nominees (according to my idea of AMPAS tastes) if the year ended on August 31st. What are the chances for these candidates going into 2005's final four-month stretch?

Supporting Actress
Dakota FanningWar of the Worlds
Taraji P Henson Hustle & Flow
Thandie Newton Crash
Renee Zellweger Cinderella Man
Zhang Ziyi 2046

I wanted to throw in Mary Lynn Rajskub for Mysterious Skin just for the helluva it. She'd be lucky to even be considered for the Indie Spirits though. (I thought she was terrific in Punch Drunk Love too.) As for the gorgeous collection of acclaimed ladies in Broken Flowers ...I haven't yet seen it --but we're talking buzz here and that is all about Bill Murray. Not a one of the women have been singled out to any substantial degree.

But back to the imaginary August year-end roundup. If you accept my premise that those five are the leaders... will they hold up through the Fall? Taraji P Henson won't be in play. Her leading man Terrance Howard, who is having a great year, may be able to make a bid for lead actor for Hustle & Flow. That is IF the critics give him a boost at year's end. But he would have to be a slam dunk to help pull someone else in. And he isn't. Neither of them are well-known enough for easy balloting from the fame-loving Oscar voters. Ziyi Zhang is also dead in the water. Well, for this film at least. Her performance in 2046 is sensational. In fact, it's my favorite in this category so far and I'm not even a "fan" of the budding superstar. But how many voters will see this Hong Kong gem? They didn't even nominate Wong Kar-Wai's masterpiece In the Mood for Love for Best Foreign Film in its year. He and his films are apparently too cool for the Academy's school.



So that leaves us with a frightened little girl, a Crash victim, and Oscar's numero uno favorite type "The Supportive Spouse". None of these contenders will survive until nomination day but we'll complete the exercize anyway because we love talking about Oscar.

Pros & Cons
In Crash's acclaimed ensemble Thandie Newton has the meatiest female role (+) she's gorgeous (+) and the Academy loves victims (+). Unfortunately her performance is uneven (-) she has internal competition (big -) and she's not "due" (-). Speaking of "due" ---how's that for an unlikely segueway into conversations about an 11-year-old??? Who'da thunk that Dakota Fanning would have such a career already? Given her work to date and her 'it' status as thechild star right now, it's easy to imagine her as a future nominee --or at least as the next Drew Barrymore. She's an unusually gifted child star in a category that does, in fact, reward child stars (+) she steals the movie from a big star (+) Too bad her character is missing an arc (big -) and it's a summer blockbuster (-). Finally there's the desperate Oscar-lust of Renee Zellweger to consider. She plays Oscars unarguable favorite supporting role in Cinderella Man (enormous +) and they like her (+). But, after a four year dominance of the red carpet and a recent win they really owe her zilch (-) her film wasn't a hit (-) and the press doesn't fawn over her anymore (big -).

Most Likely to Survive?
All five of Oscar's eventual nominees in this category have yet to surface. But of those we've covered I'll say Thandie Newton in Crash is the only one that any upcoming performer should consider fearing. But even then, she'll need the film to win its marathon run to the Best Picture shortlist in order to pull it off. Thandie's a conceivable nominee but a total longshot.