I'll be updating all my Oscar predictions over the next couple of days [update: ten categories complete, including the big 8] but before I can even think about what might be what... I figured it might be wise to glance at the intended calendar again. The following releases, should they stay where they are, will determine Oscar discussions and directions even if some of them reveal themselves as red herrings. These are the titles and (supposed) timeframes to wait for.
July is all about populist pull.
Can WALL•E maintain its buzz all summer long? If it does it could turn into something more than merely the animated film lock. Can The Dark Knight do the proper math in its Oscar campaign: The steady ascendance of director Chris Nolan + public grief over Heath Ledger + the complete pop cultural dominance of the superhero genre + Batman's history as the most Oscar respected superhero franchise to = multiple Oscar nominations? I think it's more possible than we think... especially if the more traditional players are underwhelming. There's eventually a first time for everything including a superhero picture up for Best Picture and Best Director. Finally, can Meryl Streep have another Prada sized hit with Mamma Mia! and if so, will she have another go at a third Oscar by way of a comedic role?
August is all about Woody Allen. Match Point didn't pan out with Oscar in the way some expected, though it was a financial success. Can Vicky Christina Barcelona deliver that long expected Oscar comeback?
September is all about the longshots/wildcards. The Coen Bros return with the comedy Burn After Reading but given the genre the best it could probably hope for is a screenplay or supporting nod (if anyone is widely considered to be best in show). There's also the costume drama The Duchess, the western Appaloosa, the Spike Lee WW II joint Miracle at St. Anna and the sudsy reteam of Unfaithful lovers Richard Gere and Diane Lane in Nights in Rodanthe. September isn't really prime gold man real estate but if something breaks out and gets people talking a nomination here or there is always possible (think the last two David Cronenberg pictures)
October is a mixed bag o' maybe. Can Ridley Scott's CIA drama House of Lies (formerly titled "Body of Lies") sustain awards buzz more successfully than American Gangster did? Can Oliver Stone regain his creative mojo on W. --and if he does are the actors heading for biopic-centered acting nominations? -- or is the whole project doomed by timing and taste level problems? Will Angelina Jolie's turn in Changeling be as big of a deal for her and Clint Eastwood as it was in Cannes? Will Mike Leigh's Happy-Go-Lucky be more of a Career Girls situation (no Oscar interest) a Vera Drake situation (some Oscar interest) or a Secrets & Lies deal (major attention paid). Time will tell.
November is all about BIG Oscar Bait. Australia is the closest thing we're getting to an Old Hollywood epic. Will they be in the mood for it? It'll surely stand out. Will the Harvey Milk biopic Milk give them an odd indirect chance to apologize for that Brokeback Mountain fumble? And even if it doesn't... it could still play strictly on their love of biopics (AMPAS' absolute favorite genre, bar none. Even WWII dramas aren't as reliable at chatching their fancy) Is The Soloist any good? Synopses read like a parody of Oscar Bait projects... like it's covering all bases to win gold.
December is all about the GLUT. Same as it ever was. Expected big ticket Oscar hopefuls include: Ron Howard's adaptation of the TONY winning Frost/Nixon, Edward Zwick's WW II drama Defiance, John Patrick Shanley's Pulitzer prize winning Doubt, David Fincher's epic The Curious Case of Benjamin Button, Sam Mendes reuniting the Titanic lovers in Revolutionary Road and Clint Eastwood's Gran Turino. TBA. As per usual there are a lot of films that are playing it very quiet OR they don't have distribution OR they don't have set in stone release plans OR nobody knows what to do with them OR they'll get dropped into the December glut with little chance or registering OR they'll get shoved into 2009 at the last second OR some combination of the above. I'm so helpful I know. They are: WW II literary adaptation The Reader, Steven Soderbergh's Che Guevara Project, Charlie Kauffman's Synechdoche New York, Richard Eyre's The Other Man, Jim Sheridan's Brothers and actressy projects like Grey Gardens, The Young Victoria and Rod Lurie's Nothing but the Truth (with Vera Farmiga and Kate Beckinsale)
How are you feeling about this calendar of movies? Are you even in that headspace yet?
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How are you feeling about this calendar of movies? Are you even in that headspace yet?
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Posts
39 comments:
"Will the Harvey Milk biopic Milk give them an odd indirect chance to apologize for that Brokeback Mountain fumble?"
This assumes that they think they made a fumble . . .
EVERYONE KNOWS they made a fumble. That includes them. Even if they don't think it, they KNOW it deep down.
Are you saying, Nat, that you think there's some chance Meryl could get noticed for Mamma and not for Doubt? Um, no. But it will be a nice golden globe profile booster.
Actually, it begs the question of whether, if Prada had come out in the year of Doubt or some other high octane drama, her Miranda Priestly might've been sidelined for more traditional bait. Hard to say. Her Prada perf was a big deal. I don't think Mamma Mia! will be in the same league. But it will be fun, and hopefully reinforce her new reputation as a box office draw.
And I worry for WALL*E's box office total. I worried at first, then realized it's opening weekend was actually quite good, but am now worrying again. The other, crappier blockbusters are blunting its total. I doubt it can get into the best pic race unless it's considered a resounding commercial success. And right now, that's in doubt, is it not?
Can't wait to see how The Dark Knight does.
I just want Margaret from Lonergan to get a fucking release date
Just checked in IMDB and they pushed it to 2009, still no exact date!
Wasn't it originally supposed to be out in '06 or something? Christ.
The Other Man will be released this year.
Adam, Wall-E won't be considered a box office disappointment, I'm sure of it. But the only way I can see it making Best Picture is if it exceeds expectations and becomes much bigger than it appears it will at the moment (around a Cars level gross). You're right though about the other blockbusters blocking it. If they had, perhaps, released it in November then it wouldn't have a new blockbuster to face week after week and the attention would be all on Wall-E (er, and Harry Potter).
And what if Doubt becomes another Rendition for Meryl? We haven't seen anything yet and Shanley is pretty much untested when it comes to feature direction so who knows...
I have seen more 5/5 reviews for Mamma Mia! than I every expected (it's out here in a few days).
Can The Dark Knight do the proper math in its Oscar campaign: The steady ascendance of director Chris Nolan + public grief over Heath Ledger + the complete pop cultural dominance of the superhero genre + Batman's history as the most Oscar respected superhero franchise to = multiple Oscar nominations? I think it's more possible than we think...
Actually, I've been considering The Dark Knight as a possible dark horse at major categories since late 2007. The bigggest obstacle I see now is all the critical love WALL•E gets. Assuming TDK is worthy, would the voters have what it takes to nominate two films from "immature" genres? This happened in 1992 (and one of those even managed to win), but that seems so long ago.
Finally, can Meryl Streep have another Prada sized hit with Mamma Mia! and if so, will she have another go at a third Oscar by way of a comedic role?
It's possible, but I predict it will be promoted as a supporting role if so, so as not to interfere with her Doubt prospects.
The Coen Bros return with the comedy Burn After Reading but given the genre the best it could probably hope for is a screenplay or supporting nod (if anyone is widely considered to be best in show).
Does anyone else think Pitt looks great in the trailer? While it's not the type of comedy Academy is known to admire, if I had to make a bet on a double-nominated performer today, it'd be either Meryl or him.
Can Oliver Stone regain his creative mojo on W. --and if he does are the actors heading for biopic-centered acting nominations?
Even if the movie sucks (very probable), I wouldn't count out Josh Brolin. Of course, if 1992 comparison holds any water, then W=JFK, and thus must be a major player. ;)
Australia is the closest thing we're getting to an Old Hollywood epic.
Despite that, I believe Australia's chances are overestimated at this point (outside of Cinematography and Art Direction). One past Baz's film scored many nominations - that doesn't yet make him quite the Oscar darling everybody makes him out to be.
IMDb has Brothers' release date as 4 December 2008...
Isn't August also about the Comedy longshots.
Looking for potential nods in original song, screenplays and supporting cast are:
Pineapple Express
Bottle Shock
Tropic Thunder
Hamlet 2
I'm thinking that there may be something out there for this bunch.
Wouldn't it be delicious if Meryl was nominated in lead for Doubt, supporting for Mamma Mia!....and won BOTH?
Unlikely, I know, but still delicious.
I don't think it'll be possible to sell Meryl in Mamma in supporting. She's headlining the film. And I don't think they're going for oscars at all. Besides, the globes will surely nominate her in lead. I just don't see a supporting nod out of that. At all.
Meryl had two legitimate chances to get double nods - 2002 and 2006 - and fell short both times. Shame, cause she was mighty deserving both times, and there was no fraud required. But I assume they thought it would be overkill since she was already in the process of breaking her own and other people's records for most nominated performer ever.
I still think Hugh Jackman and Nicole Kidman have bigger chances than you're predicting. First screenings for Australia are very positive (and thats with a 3+ hour runtime and half of the visual fx unfinished.)
I'm skiddish about the stage adaptions as well - though Doubt has huge star power, so it's more likely than Frost/Nixon.
Surprised you took Viggo off the shortlist. His role will probably be very memorable, even if the movie is too dark.
Is anyone else bothered by Pitt's accent in the Benjamin Button trailer? If any movie will this year's disappointment, it's this one. Will the Academy ever recognize Fincher? Will the $150 million movie be a box office bomb? Only time will tell.
adam --as unlikely as Mamma Mia oscar love seemed, have you seen the early reviews. People are ECSTATIC.
ya never know.
that's all i'm saying.
anon --i'm totally on AUSTRALIA's train (given that all four of Baz Luhrmann's movies have been in my top ten of their years) but romantic epics are tricky sells acting wise.
even if the people are great they are not: biopic characters. disabled. deglam. accented. or any of those normal hooks. Think what happened to the ATONEMENT leads last year.
They'd have to REALLY love the movie to recognize the actors (like GONE WITH THE WIND or ENGLISH PATIENT kind of big love)
Touche. It being dubbed as an old hollywood epic and "they don't make them like this anymore" sure helps, though. =) Jackman and Kidman are both overdue - and Australia could provide the right emotions and the right characters to get them [back] into the game. And Jackman's Australian accent sure isn't hard on the ears. ;)
it was a shame what happened to mcavoy pushed out for standard turns by clooney,jones and depp.
best actor should've been
day lewis - there will be blood
mcavoy - atonement
hoffman - before the devil knows you're dead
riley - control
del toro - things we lsot in the fire
knightley's role was underwritten but she did wonders with it.
adam k.: Well, I for one thought presenting Streep as the lead in Prada was a category fraud.
Runs Like A Gay: Heh, for a minute you made me daydream RDJ gets nominated for both Leading Role in Iron Man and Supporting Role
in Tropic Thunder. That would so rule. :)
I'm glad for your consideration for "The Dark Knight". It's true that superhero movie is not exactly at first view an "oscarish" role but it's time to new perspectives. Ten years ago anyone could have good shots to "No Country for Old Men" and "There Will Be Blood" and everyone could be agree with "Atonement" was the Oscarish film... and the opposite happened last year. Or how many would go out "The Departed" because is was a remake of a foreign film?...
1992 is a good example for two perfect dark horses: "The Silence of the Lambs" and "The Beauty and the Beast", so we have the precedent. Nolan is a respect director with three beloved films by critics instead Batman: Memento, Insomnia and The Prestige. So why not a Best director Nomination?
Anon@: It's true that test screeners of Australia are positive but nothing great... It's not like Defiance when the public LOVED the film. I heard that some people HATED the 3+ hour runtime. Most people recall the techical aspects (Cinematography and Art Direction) instead acting and story. And the worst part... Ruymor has it that Jackman is better that Kidman. That's sound another "Atonement" or even a "Cold Mountain"?
You "heard" and "rumor has it"? The three reviews I read were very positive about the film - and what they saw was a really rough cut. Notice they're following the Titantic route. Of course serious changes will be made to the film. All three of the reviews out so far said something on the lines of it having the potential to become Baz's masterpiece. For Australia to get great reviews with it being not nearly finished is a really good sign. From what I've "heard" Kidman and Jackman are at their best - while the story is very "rich."
Oh - and they are shooting for a 2.30 runtime.
would we really be seriously be talking about heath as a supp actor contender if he had lived,i really do not think so i feel sentiment is driving this band wagon,although my opinion may change when i see the film
1. from what I've heard "Nthing but the truth" was moved to 2009. So Beckinsale, Farmiga and Alda are out of the game this year
2.rumour has it that Guillermo Arriaga's directorial debut "Burning Plain" will premiere at this years' Venice Film Festival. I would expect a lot of buzz for Theron, Basinger and newcomer Jennifer Lawrence and , of course for Arriaga in directing and writing cathegories
3. another movie that seems pretty baity to me is "secret lives of bees": November release, great cast, hefully Paul Bettany will get some recognition.... alicia Keys's on board as well
4. from the synopsis I've read "gran Torino" looks like witten especially to win Mr. Eastwood oscar in Best Actor cathegory.... It' s something she still needs to his collection... and they will be very eager to give it to him (Million dollar Baby, anyone?)... so, he looks like a strong contender to me
5. and, hey, don't forget about Melissa Leo and Misty Upham in 'Frozen River"....if this Sundance winner become a critical darling, they might get in as well
Nothing But the Truth comes out in 2009, not 2008. So Vera is out this year. According to IMDB
~M~
I don't really trust IMDB on release dates. They change all the time. Let's wait until there's a definite date either way...
oh and Blaise. The Burning Plains I'd totally consider but like NOTHING BUT THE TRUTH nothing seems set in stone in terms of when it's going to be released.
Expect several of the smaller movies to keep changing their minds. It's what happens every year.
I mean they're still playing shell games with THE READER. argh.
To make up for the "arthouse Oscars" last year, I wouldn't be surprised if we could see the "pop Oscars" this year, with a line-up something like this for Best Picture:
The Dark Knight
Wall-E
Benjamin Button (or Australia, somehow I see one succeeding and the other not)
Changeling (obligatory Eastwood slot)
Milk (indie slot can be more serious this year since Wall-E is a comedy)
If both The Dark Knight and Wall-E are too much simply replace one with something more standard (Revolutionary Road, Doubt, etc.) and you have a pretty good-looking line-up.
1. I think the Ledger thing is being overstated to the point of tastelessness, to be honest. I recall Nathaniel getting a little bit annoyed at the instant valediction Ledger had, and while I was mixed at the time (for it truly was a sucker punch), I'm getting sorta irritated at the oscar talk for his performance.
2. The reason I would side with WALL.E over THE DARK KNIGHT is fairly simple. The critics. As nice as it is to see them champion a film, it seems to me that when it comes down to the awardage (which in turn gives momentum to films that operate outside the academy's viewpoint), they generally become very narrow when actually giving the awards, rubber stamping category fraud (Casey Affleck), sweeps (Helen Mirren), or annointing one film as the critical favourite despite evidence to the contrary (Sideways vs Eternal Sunshine, Scorsese vs Cuaron). So which mainstream success do they side with? WALL.E, from the most consistently acclaimed commercial producer of films in the English speaking world, or THE DARK KNIGHT, a highly buzzed entrant into the superhero genre. I'm with the former right now, especially as many of the buzzier entrants are the type that could collapse when we get closer.
3. I'd be worried about Doubt as well (or more accurately, I don't think it's headed towards oscar glory as much as Oscar golf claps). After Streep.... I doubt it'll get anything. Why? Stage adaptations don't do as well as they used to (flashback to 1966 where the two big contenders were adaptations of plays, or 1984 when an adaptation swept the awards, or 1989..). What was the last best picture play adaptation? A Few Good Men. I'm not sure why they don't do as well. Hollywood doesn't view them like they used too (Broadway's no longer the cultural mecca), most seem to go straight to HBO (Dinner with Friends, The Laramie Project, Wit, Angels in America) if they ever make it in front of a camera.
But I should also add that in my mind, Doubt is the single most overrated American play of the past decade. Call me when the Weinsteins (yes, it'll be them) make August: Osage County.
4. re: Milk as apology for Brokeback. I doubt it. That said, I'm very curious as to what it'll take for Focus to actually win the big oscar. Miramax had The Crying Game, The Piano and Pulp Fiction, but won with... The English Patient (a world war II epic). The problem for Focus seems to be they have the genre right (say, Holocaust Drama, Romantic Epic) but there's always an additional qualifier that makes it "nuh-uh" (like a restrained Holocaust drama or a GAY romantic epic). They were clearly gunning for Atonement as their English Patient, but that faltered (I'm not really sure why, yet - and I don't think they know yet either). But they're trying new things with release dates, are still fairly daring (come on, Focus, grab Che... for me), so I'm sure it'll happen. I just don't know when.
5. Right now, I'm thinking of solid things for Brideshead Revisited, keeping my fingers crossed for Che, and rooting for Vicky Christy Barcelona (if only because Rebecca Hall, the girl who isn't Scarlett Johansson or Penelope Cruz, is just as engaging an actress as those two). Oh, and if The Road is anywhere near as good as the book, I'd better see double nods for it's leading men and John Hillcoat.
arkaan --you always give me so much to respond to ;)
1. I totally agree. BUT Oscar momentum is built on things happening to the point of overkill. I personally may get sick of it but that doesn't mean the buzz isn't real.
2. good point. But The Dark Knight doesn't have its own category where WALL-E does and I still think that might be a problem.
3. good point.
4. i don't mean apology in the literal sense. I mean apology in the vague psychological sense.
5. I like Rebecca Hall too. at least in what tiny portions i've been exposed to her.
I'm pretty sure Doubt will get more than just Meryl. But I agree that Best Picture is no sure thing, and maybe not even likely. I just think that with Hoffman in the cast, overdue Viola Davis in an awards-magnet role, past winner Shanley with the screenplay, etc. there's a lot of prestige there to award. I think Viola Davis and the screenplay are good bets, unless something goes seriously wrong. And Hoffman will most likely get at least some precursor love.
And re: Heath Ledger... I think there might've been this kind of buzz even if he were alive. Or if not, then cries of "he deserves it! but it's a superhero movie, so it won't happen". I think the posthumous factor just neutralizes the genre factor. People don't care that it's a comic book film because they know this is their one chance to honor Ledger.
The difference between this and, say, Catwoman or Jack's Joker is that while those were essentially comedic roles, or at most, quirky/stylized theatrical drama, Heath as the Joker is a truly balls-to-the-wall, chilling and scary dramatic role. It seems more along the lines of Hannibal Lecter than anything out of other Batman films. Pfeiffer, for example, was hard to take seriously for awards because the perf itself was not serious. Totally great, but not "serious"... and "serious" is how they roll.
I don't think there's ever been a comic book perf like this before. And when you combine that with the wild card of sentiment, anything can happen.
1. Good points on Ledger. And yeah, the buzz is real, but I wish it were a bit less "honor him because he's dead" and more "honor him because he's good."
2. Definitely true with WALL.E, and it probably hurt PERSEPOLIS last year.
3. I'll believe Doubt when it happens. Maybe I'll wait a few months afterwards. I just wonder about the perception that Viola Davis is overdue (she's great, but overdue? Overdue suggests she was snubbed before. Unless you mean overdue for a great role, but I don't think that means anything here).
4. Oh, I know you meant more psychologically. But since then, they've honored long overdue Scorsese and had No Country for Old Men (as non-baity as it gets) win best picture. Seems to me they've been forgiven a bit, and I think the GAY factor could hurt for actual wins and nominations.
"The Secret Life of Bees" is due in October. Dakota Fanning, Queen Latifah, Sophie Okonedo, Paul Bettany and Jennifer Hudson are in it. It should be looked out for. The book is fab.
I personally think "honor him cause he's dead" merely cancels out "don't honor him cause it's Batman"... leaving "honor him cause he's good" to carry the day.
I think Milk is highly probably for nominations, but wins are a different story. It seems more a Capote than a Brokeback.
By the way, in Rotten tomatoes and metacritic, "The Dark Knight" has almost 100% of good reviews (Many of them great and terrific).
So I put right now "The Dark Knight" could be the first comic adaptation could get an Oscar Nomination in Picture, directing and even not only a nomination, an Oscar to heath ledger.
Yes, maybe I'm crazy and this is a wishful thinking, but this is possible and I have a lot of faith
Anon 1:48, I don't know what reviews or rumours of "Australia" you've read but the three reviews that have been out and a talkbalk comment from another person who has seen the movie have been far from just "good", the word out from those reviews are absolutely great. "Special", "a winner", "emotional", etc., have been used. And the performances have been praised as well with both Kidman and Jackman getting great praise and the same applies to young Brandon Walters and this is a movie still in post-production.
I am not going to underestimate this movie.
it's weird but i'm trying really hard not to think about AUSTRALIA at all (the movie not the country) because I just love Baz & Nic & Hugh so much and I just want to love it so much that i worry.
ack!
I had a dream last night that Australia swept the Oscars but only after I had seen it and hated it. Now the Academy's deranged sensibilities are clouding my dreams (NIGHTMARES!!!)
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