@ 9:00 AM EST Angela Bassett announced the nominees for the SAG awards with her unparalleled powers of e•nun'c•ia'tion. I listen to her punctuated "t"s on the telly. Loving her all the while. Unfortunately it was all downhill from there.Best Ensemble: The Curious Case of Benjamin Button, Doubt, Frost/Nixon, Milk, Slumdog Millionaire
Does Doubt really need all four of its actors nominated and an Ensemble nomination? What's that for -- the background nuns and the children? Can you say overkill? And Slumdog Millionaire... I can't even go there. Even if I loved the movie I would and could recognize that the acting was nothing special. Certainly not as compared with the casts of Revolutionary Road, Synecdoche New York, Happy-Go-Lucky, Rachel Getting Married, The Wrestler, The Visitor or even unrewarded not Oscar bound movies like Miss Pettigrew Lives for a Day, Stop-Loss or Blindness. I mean... this is a ridiculous nomination. But SAG has never been known for "taste" exactly. Their enthusiasms always take over. They gave Philip Seymour Hoffman a nomination for his worst most mannered performance ever (Flawless) over acting as exquisite as Richard Farnsworth in The Straight Story and Jim Broadbent in Topsy Turvy... and that's just off the top of my head. All of this means that Slumdog is easily going to win the Oscar for Best Picture if actors love it this much, without any reservations or qualifiers at all.
Lead Actor -Jenkins (yay), Langella (biopic), Penn (yay), Pitt (yum) and Rourke (yay)- Lead Actress -Hathaway (yay), Jolie (yawn), Leo (wow), Streep & Winslet (of course x 2)
- Supporting Actor -Brolin (yay), Downey Jr (hee), Hoffman (wrong category), Ledger (yay), Patel (huh?)
- Supporting Actress -Adams (er, I guess), Cruz (yay), Davis (yay), Henson (yay), Winslet (wrong category)
More elaborate / less monosyllabic thoughts on all categories right here.
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I was reading the nominations of recent SAGS and it got me quite interested in this year's crop. This is my favourite awards show. Let's see what they say. I'd rather stay up late for this than for the Oscar nom-cast.
No Sally! I think it's gonna go to Kate. Anne Hathaway's a bit tooooo ingenue, I think to take it away from a soon 7-time nominee.
Dev Patel? Really? That's about the biggest upset of the bunch. I think this sort of cements Jolie and Downey, Jr. And, with this, I think the Oscar lineup is going to be:
Actor: Penn, Rourke, Langella, Pitt, DiCaprio (in that order-I just don't think they'll skip Leo again)
Actress: Streep, Winslet, Hathaway, Hawkins, Jolie (in that order-poor Kristin Scott)
S. Actor: Ledger, Hoffman, Brolin, Downey, Patel (in that order-poor James Franco)
S. Actress: Cruz, Davis, Winslet, Adams, Tomei (in that order)
I'm straying from the SAG list only twice (subbing Leo for Jenkins, in hopes of Red Carpet glory, and Hansen for Tomei, subbing in the bigger name)
If Hathaway wins the SAG, I would think Oscar would go for her performance. I didnt get snubbbing TDK for Slumdog Millionaire. I don't really agree.
Even helped by this i don't consider Jolie a lock yet... Boost for Leo and Patel. If Ledger wins this, he has the Oscar statuette.
Is Michael Sheen really getting NO attention again? This is becoming his calling card, the subtle yet devastating dramatic actor who plays second fiddle to someone who just mimes the best-known physicalities of a more recognizable figure.
As for Patel, I think he'll get on the Oscar list but it's not a given. Something tells me the SAGs are friendlier to young performers than AMPAS is. I'm not sure if that's backed up by fact, but I seem to remember discussing it back when everyone thought that Ellen Page was a SAG-only nominee before Juno caught on big.
jake that is backed up by fact. Dakota Fanning and all...
fenix hathaway is not going to win. I mean they passed over THAT fucking ensemble for Frost/Nixon and Slumdog. I could weep.
actors can be sooooo tedious (and poor judges of their own craft) I mean who in their right mind would consider SLUMDOG to hold better performances than SYNECDOCHE NEW YORK!? And I like Slumdog better than that movie. But come on: it's no contest.
and rachel getting married... it's just craziness.
The Slumdog nod seems like the actors saying "Well, we are Oscar precursors after all, and this movie is going to win, so let's be on the right side of history." Stupid, stupid, stupid, but we accept that about awards season going in I guess.
I'll stick up for the Frost/Nixon nod. I think the acting ensemble was better than the movie itself, really.
So Winslet is 99% locked for both categories.
But Jolie instead of Thomas and Hawkins???
Jim
these nominations make no sense. i love amy adams and all but not in this movie and over marisa tomei or rosemarie de witt?!?
i guess i should focus on the positive: kate is a double nominee. there is NO clint for actor (thank god). richard jenkins got some recognition.
oh, i don't like this whole positive thing- where is leo? where is james franco? michael shannon, anyone? dav freaking patel?!? oscar, please take note and learn from these mistakes.
Am I wrong in thinking Jolie was nominated for everything last year for a much better performance (A Mighty Heart) and still got no Oscar love?
michael parsons you are correct. The difference this time is that it's a much Oscar friendlier film and role.
A Mighty Heart was a much better film but it just wasn't very mainstream prestige-like.
Just wondering if perhaps they just do not like Jolie that much anymore.
Will people really put her as a number 1? I can see number 1's for Streep, Hawkins, Hathaway, Winslet and even Leo, but Jolie? Really?
Then again who really thought Blanchett would get enough number 1's for Elizabeth: The Blah Di Blah.
I don't think this cements Jolie at all. KST and Blanchett are certainly falling, but the fact that Melissa Leo made it here AND at BFCA means she has some serious support. And I just can't see Hawkins missing with all those critics' awards and a likely globe win. So I think we could see a repeat of the last-miniute sub last year, and it could be Hathaway/Hawkins/Leo/Streep/Winslet. But maybe that's just me thinking with my heart.
And yeah, I'm really flummoxed as to how all these people could be watching Anne Hathaway in Rachel Getting Married, loving her, and then not noticing the greatness of the ensemble around her. I mean, they're clearly watching the movie. Aren't they? (or are they just voting for her cause she's a star, he asks woefully).
And yeah, all the DiCaprio snubs are kind of disheartening. It's hard to see him making the oscar list now, but it's also hard to see him being left off. Weird.
I'm excited for Winslet, though.
I like Pitt (and for the record, I still haven't seen BENJAMIN BUTTON), but something just tells me that he's going to fall out once the Oscar nominations come out, and that Eastwood will take his place. I feel REVOLUTIONARY ROAD, despite its Globe success, has fallen out of favor with most people, and DiCaprio will be the unfortunate fall-boy for that. My ballot:
Clint Eastwood
Richard Jenkins
Frank Langella
Sean Penn
Mickey Rourke
"The Slumdog nod seems like the actors saying "Well, we are Oscar precursors after all, and this movie is going to win, so let's be on the right side of history." Stupid, stupid, stupid, but we accept that about awards season going in I guess."
I think you're overlooking the fact that people just REALLY love this film, to an almost insane, unbelievable degree. I think it's more about insatiable love than trying to be an Oscar predictor.
I loved Slumdog more than the next person, but I can't see how it's nominated for Best Ensemble?
I'm baffled.
I actually am much more okay with the Ensemble nod that the Dev Patel nod, just not over much worthier Ensembles.
*than
Nathaniel, how is A Mighty Heart not an oscar-friendly film? It's a freaking biopic, for chrissakes. About a woman being a supportive wife. Plus Jolie did an accent. It tried to be mainstream, but nobody went to see it. Was that the problem? I personally think they just don't like her.
She's certainly in the thick of it this year, but #1 ballots? Really? And are they gonna nominate her, but not Eastwood himself, when they love him so much more? Is it the Brangelina synergy thing that's driving it, maybe? Do they have more respect for her now that she's adopted yet another kid?
More power to Brad & Angie, I guess, but I'm still not confident that she'll make it.
These nominations aren't doing much to dispel the rumors that actors are morons.
I know SAG always rewards the "kid of the year," but Patel's nomination (and the film's) is simply unacceptable.
adam k have you actually seen a mighty heart? In what way was that mainstream? Winterbottom is clearly not willing to pander to the masses, god bless. Any A list director would've increased the tears and thrown in a more manipulative score and not focused so much on mosaic editing, errant moments and a group of really focused smart people talking about politics.
I mean, FROST / NIXON that was not. There was no efforts made towards "entertainment" so to speak. it didn't strike me as mainstream for a minute.
edot thank you. I knew at least some SLUMDOG fans would understand that a movie being great doesn't mean it's great in every way. This is why there are different categories for things and not just one award: best picture.
katey you might be right... but i guess i missed the SAG of yore who would nominate things like THE BIRDCAGE or BOOGIE NIGHTS for ensemble, knowing full well that best picture nods weren't coming but you gotta respect when a whole cast is working together really well (cough*RACHEL GETTING MARRIED *cough)
ah well, at least their efforts to predict BEST PICTURE did get MILK a nomination and that's a perfect example of an actual worthy ensemble where everyone is contributing to the power of the whole thing.
Yeah, when I looked back and remembered that they nominated Hairspray last year... man. Talk about the good old days. Though if Mamma Mia! had made it through this time I might have dropped dead of shock.
Since Cate Blanchett has received her 12th nomination as part of Best Ensemble for Benjamin Button, am i correct in thinking she is the actor with the most sag nominations??
john i honestly don't know. it's tough to keep track of sag nominations because the ensemble lists are so weird.
you can be a major part of the ensemble and NOT be among the ensemble nominees as we discovered with THE AVIATOR --it all depends on who the studio lists I think...
obviously cate blanchett would be listed ;) but i don't know if she's "most nominated" but it's a good guess since SAG started only a few years before she came into prominence so she's definitely concurrent with the SAG awards, unlike, say, anybody who was ultra famous and respected in the 80s but didn't work much in the past decade.
I think David Hyde Pierce has the most, but for TV
WHERE IS SALLY HAWKINS?
That's BS SAGs.
I think i might be right Nathaniel, because the only other actor who would be most likely to have more nomnations is Meryl Streep, and she's only received her 10th + 11th noms today ;)
New Line listed Cate as part of best ensembe all 3 'Rings' films, which were all nominated, despite the fact that in the 2nd + 3rd films, she's in them for 0.001 seconds!!!
I think the day after the Oscars they will be billing Kate Winslet as the the youngest actress to receive seven oscar nominations.
Billy sad.
Yeah, expect snubs for Michael Shannon and Leonardo DiCaprio now, just like I've been predicting for months now.
YH --probably but, on the other hand, SAG is never 100% predictive and people forget that every year. They're anywhere from 2/5 to 5/5 in each category. But they're hardly 5/5 with great regularity.
Can we talk television for just a moment?
Three for Mad Men, including Lizzy Moss. YAY!!
These nominations suck. Amy Adams gave a very dissonant, uneven performance. She just looked nervous acting with Hoffman and Streep and opted for lame comedy that condescended and simplified her character instead of digging into the deeper layers like Streep and Davis certainly did. At this point the only film that really stands a chance at getting oscar love that I also found fetching is MILK because people are awarding crap like Slumdog Millionaire over Rachel getting Married, Synecdoche.... even the actual underdogs like Wall-E and Dark Knight are alright but definitely overpraised in my opinion.
- Sean C.
I didn't forget it. I know that these won't be a carbon copy of the Oscars (like Sally Hawkins being unfairly snubbed, or Brad Pitt making it in over THE CLINT). But I never thought that Leonardo DiCaprio or Michael Shannon would make it in their competition, and especially in Shannon's case, the writing was on the wall when he didn't score with any critics or at the Globes. Now the SAGs to add to that.
YH... yeah. so weird that Shannon fall. as soon as i saw the movie i thought "he's in"... i mean i thought he overplayed his hand a little but Oscar usually loves that.
I think this looks a lot like the Oscar line-up. The changes I see are:
Hawkins for Jolie (she won't get #1votes)
Leo or Clint for Pitt (not enough #1's)
Tomei for Adams (again, the preferential ballot)
Franco or Shannon for Patel (Oscars don't love kids like SAG does)
I am the only one that doesn't believe in the preferential ballots?
I mean how in the world did Blanchett got enough #1 placements last year for "The Golden Age"?
on the other hand Laura Linney was clearly benefited by that last year..
anyway I don't like the way this year is shaping.. I love Jolie very much but she was not good in "Changeling" and she'll probably make it...
I am so disappointed in the Screen Actors Guild. I thought if anyone was going to bat for "Rachel Getting Married," it'd be them. Even the BFCA nominated them for Best Ensemble. This awards season has me feeling so...blah. It feels like 2006 and it's making me hate films like "Slumdog Millionaire" which I actually like, even if I didn't respond as strongly as other people. The only thing that makes the race semi-exciting is the possibility of Winslet finally winning, though it might be for "The Reader" in supporting, which would SUCK. Wake me when it's over.
jeff but Blanchett has enough die hard fans to get #1 placements no matter what the role is (think about it) in the same way that Meryl or Kate do.
that said: i'm glad she's essentially out of best actress this particular year because it's already so crowded and these other roles are more interesting.
I get what you're saying about the preferential ballot system --there are years when I am like "how" but then i remember. different strokes for different folks. You can find fans of just about any movie or performance if you look hard enough.
the question is how many of them can you find.
the reason i think amy adams is in danger is that i've yet to meet anyone who thought her performance was better than viola davis's and usually when you get two nominees from the same film you can find camps supporting both notions.
i think this is the same reason that cameron diaz had trouble getting in for being john malkovich. Who would place her above catherine keener when thinking of the film?
I'm very happy with these nominations. Yay for Slumdog Millionaire, Winslet, Streep, Ledger, Penn, and woo!
Nathaniel: No not 100% but they have been pretty good matching the oscar-lineup in the acting categorys the last few years (missing up to only 1 in each catogory in the last 3 years, except for best actor last year).
BUT the big question is: Is it over for James Franco??? (Pliiis someone say no, to keep my hopes going...)
And here ya'll go backlashing "Slumdog Millionaire" like clockwork. Ugh, people are so damn predictable. The film was great, and it deserved all of its nods today. It deserves to win best Picture too.
Random thoughts on noms:
Glad Hawkins did not make list ... Why Jolie?? What happened to Kristin?
Glad Jenkins made the list ... Glad Clint lost out... Where is Leo?
Think Oscars go to Streep and Rourke ( alt ) Penn
In Supporting actress ... I do not think Adams will make the Oscar cut...
More thoughts later.
Well, in 2006 if I remember 19/20 acting Nominees of the SAGs will became Oscar Nominees... Only leo weren't nominated and Mark Wahlberg takes his spot for The Departed.
I think this will be my predictions:
Best Actor:
1. Sean Penn
2. Mickey Rourke
3. Frank Langella
4. Brad Pitt
5. Between Richard jenkins, Clint Eastwood and Leonardo DiCaprio.
Best Actress:
1. Anne Hathaway
2. Meryl Streep
3. Melissa Leo
4. Angelina Jolie
5. kate Winslet
Alt: Sally Hawkins (For anyone who thinks Sally is still safe for LAFCA and NYFCC wins, three words... Bill Murray, "Rushmore")
Sorry but I think Thomas is out. Only with a GG win could still in the race, but I doubt it...
Best Actor in a Supporting Role:
1. heath Ledger
2. Josh Brolin
3. Robert Downey jr.
4. dev Patel - I prefer him instead Hoffman.
5. Robert Downey Jr.
Alt: Philip Seymour Hoffman
Best Actress in a Supporting Role:
1. Kate Winslet
2. Penelope Cruz
3. Viola Davis
4. Taraji P. Henson
5. Between Rosemarie DeWitt, Marisa Tomei and Amy Adams
Nat, I'd never thought of that, but in retrospect, I'm sure that's precisely why Diaz missed for Malkovich despite doing so well in the precursors. NO ONE in their right mind would think her better than Catherine Keener, even if they did think her one of the best of the year.
In the '00-'02 streak where there were two supporting actress nominees from one film three years in a row, it's easy to see how it happened.
Frances McDormand and Kate Hudson were both so different in the film, never shared scenes, and each did their thing so well that the two-fer was a total gimme. Hudson was the new "it girl" princess/globe winner, and McDormand was the critical favorite and was the funniest part of the film.
Likewise, Smith gave Gosford Park its best moments, and Mirren gave it its soul. Critical favorite vs. academy favorite. If you liked the comedy of Gosford Park best, you preferred Smith, but if you were all about the sadness, you preferred Mirren.
Even in 2002, when CZJ was clearly superior, had the larger role, and ended up winning, the idea of Queen Latifah as an oscar nominee was so novel and fun, and her one showstopper so great, that it's easy to see her at the top of many ballots. She certainly has her fans, plus many people surely considered CZJ a lock and put her lower. But that was the iffiest case.
It's kinda fun to look back on. But yeah, I don't see Amy Adams making it.
And yeah, you got me, I never saw A Mighty Heart.
I'm too poor to see everything.
Slumdog Millionaire over Rachel Getting Married WTF!!!
I mean Tropic Thunder had a better ensemble than Slumdog...seriously!
Atleast Milk got some love
Nathaniel,Does this mean Sally Hawkins or Rev Road may not make it to Oscar or do the Baftas help?
Jason
Part of me truly believes that any combination of Leo, Thomas, Hawkins, and Blanchett still has the power to knock Jolie out of that Oscar lineup. I hated her in both films, but if she couldn't even get a nomination for A Mighty Heart (in a weaker year), I hope Changeling is an equal failure.
Let's just hope the BAFTA's get it right. I'm one of those "vocal detractors" (even though she makes my Actress Psychic ballot).
anon 12:02 you seriously think Slumdog has a better ensemble performance than Rachel Getting Married, The Wrestler, Burn After Reading, The Dark Knight?
I have to believe that these nominations largely come because actors vote on things they haven't seen if they like the actors and things that they love that they have. And having interviewed actors and been friends with actors I can attest that some of them admit to just that.
Any member of SAG who did not vote for Rachel Getting Married shouldn't be considered an actor anymore.
I like Cameron Diaz much better than Catherine Keener in Malkovich. Am I a unicorn?
I'm with The Know Nothing Know It All (with the fabulous James Baldwin avatar!). I just can't get worked up about this crop of contenders. So many okay performances by people who are better than this, rampant category frauds, and the Slumdog madness. And the crazy Decemberism. Open Frost/Nixon in September and we wouldn't be looking at nods, certainly not for the Engsemble, to include Rebecca Hall's bangs and Matthew Macfadyen's bad wig.
At least Anne Hathaway looks to be in the clear. And Sean and Heath. I'm trying to be nice.
Im not suprised to hear that. I mean the Oscars is really just a big and very glamorous "office-party".
Guys...Cameron Diaz didn't get a nomination because she is not a great actor. I mean really? She put on a wig and donned contact lenses. Oooo, so brave, she squelched her beauty. She was still mediocre!
Like wise, Jolie in Mighty Heart...just good. The movie wasn't great, and her performance was not that special. Now she's getting nominated for an overwrought Eastwood directed role. Ha! Maybe some day she'll get back to where she started...she was great in Gia.
I loudly agree with Amy Adams vs Rosemary Dewitt or Tomei. What!
And worst of all, passing over Rachel Getting Married for ensemble is just mind boggling. Mind boggling. One of the best ensembles I've ever seen, actually.
When I posted on my blog this morning, I didn't even mention it because i was sure that it was there in the nominations. I couldn't even see that it wasn't on the list!
I'm growing very apathetic about this awards season.
I mean...I loudly disagree with the choice of Amy Adams over Rosemary Dewitt or Marissa Tomei!
I meant What ?!
Patel nominated in the support category is not only a fraud but an insult to supporting roles for actors. Studios really should be monitored for how they categorize these performances. I think they clearly knew that Patel would not be competitive enough in the Best Actor category, as his performance (although competent)would look green if compared to the likes of Penn and Langella. However, whay made them think it's acceptable to downgrade his category just because his acting isn't up to par with the big guys?! This category is not a junk yard to store performances that are decent but not good enough to contend as lead. This type of mentality is a shameful insult to actors who consistently put in great performances in supporting roles. As for Best Actress, I think Kristin Scott Thomas got snubbed. I actually prefer her performance over all the nominees', including my favorite actress's (Meryl) or the big winners with the critics circles (Hathaway and Leo). Yes the ending of I've Loved You so Long is troublesome, but KST's work in it is more subtle yet more powerful than the performances of those aforementioned frontrunners of this category.
Pitt and Jolie not enough #1 votes. Why?
They will the support of the Afro-American votes (the amazing work they did in NOLA ) they will get many of Clints supporters, and they will have the gay vote. Their support for the gays rigths in California (P.8).
Why people are saying that the AA members dont like her? because she was snubed? maybe they thougth that Laura Linney was better. Being snubed one time doesnt mean that they dont like her. FCS the women is just 33 years old. Streep was snubed for the Hours, Winslet for Quills etc etc.
I don't get how Hawkins can win so many critic awards and Tomei can win several herself and not be on the list?
This sounds like let's put a more famous actor like Jolie and Adams over those who make more independent movies. I'm not saying Adams and Jolie suck, but if Hawkins and Tomei are better in their roles and are receiving awards for it, then they should have been nominated. SAG's suck.
Random, but...
If I were an academy voter, I'd vote for Winslet twice in the lead category (for Reader and Rev Road) and then again in supporting (for Reader) just to make sure I covered my ass and didn't contribute to a split vote (is that allowed?). If she weren't so famous and loved and overdue, it could turn into a total Scarlett Johannson ('03) situation.
1) Winslet (The Reader)
2) Winslet (Revolutionary Road)
3) Hawkins (Happy-Go-Lucky)
4) Leo (Frozen River)
5) Hathaway (Rachel Getting Married)
Streep is a lock.
I actually think, with the way Rev Road's going, that there's a fair chance a lot of people could put Kate in lead for The Reader and she'd end up with just one lead nomination. Then she'd suddenly become a big frontrunner for the win.
The "Slumdog" ensemble nom is just plain laughable. Freida Pinto a SAG nominee? Really?!? She looks and sounds like she was plucked out of a L'oreal commercial. Who's next? Solange Knowles?
Meanwhile, the Jolie love is reeeaallly bothersome. I don't know what everybody else was watching in 'Changeling,' but what I saw was the year's showiest and, perhaps, noisiest performance. This lineup is tainted. I want my Sally Hawkins back!
I honestly don't think anyone (but Streep) is safe in best actress.
it's just too competitive. you've got seven women still standing strong AND cate blanchett undoubtedly siphoning off some votes even though she won't make it in.
it's crazy. we could have a shocking snub
you seriously think Slumdog has a better ensemble performance than Rachel Getting Married, The Wrestler, Burn After Reading, The Dark Knight?
It's not an either/or situation. I think that "Slumdog" fully deserved its ensemble nomination. It doesn't mean I think that others should have been snubbed. I would have been equally pleased with a nod for "Rachel Getting Married" ("The Wrestler" isn't in my area, I ignored "Burn After Reading" b/c I wasn't interested in it, and I wasn't predicting "The Dark Knight" in my predictions anyway). But they didn't, and "Slumdog" did. I hope they can ride this to a BP nod at the Oscars.
but it is an either/or situation.
there are always a finite amount of nominees for a category.
but i know i need to be more zen about this. it's obvious from all the doubling up they did (all the ensembles nominees also have individual nominations and usually more than one) that this year's nominating committee (the roster changes) didn't see that many movies this year.
they don't take their jobs as seriously as awards fanatics do.
I will say, the Best Supporting Actor lineup is worlds better than the Globes'. This is almost what I've been picturing all along, give or take a nod for James Franco.
YOU KNOW WHAT MADE ME SAD ANGELA ANNOUNCING THE NOMINESS AND NOT BEING AMONG THE NOMINEES.
this srikes me as 2003 all over again streep,hathaway,leo,blanchett,jolie say i.
could kate become lead just like keisha and samantha in 2003 or a big fat scarlett johansson snub.
oh 1 last thing i have noticed tomei and iwnslet are winning more critics wards cruz seems to have slipped i think winselt wins in supp streep wins lead ledger wins supp and penn wins a 2nd time.
I believe there are 7 people still in the running for all 7 categories.
Actor:
Di Caprio, Jenkins , Langella, Penn, Rourke
Alt: Pitt, Eastwood (Somehow I think it will either be him or Di Caprio for slot 5, but Leo will get the edge.)
Actress:
Hathaway, Hawkins,Leo, Streep, Winslet
Alt: Jolie, Scott Thomas
Supporting Actor:
Brolin, Downey Jr. Hoffman, , Ledger, Patel
Alt: Franco, Shannon (little precursor love)
Supporting Actress:
Cruz, Davis, Henson, Tomei Winslet
Alt: Adams, Dewitt (poor Dewitt)
I believe these are the only real players here for this year's awards. Everyone agree? It is crazy to think that actors from Skins and the Division could be Oscar Nominees next year.
Mrripley: On your last blog with wour 4 oredictions... I agree totally..
So, at this point in the Oscar Actress (lead & supporting) race it is Cruz-ial (sorry, I couldn't help it)what happens to Winslet double take. If she gets a lead nod for RR she may become the frontrummer, but if she gets it supporting for The Reader, will she also be the frontrunner? In both categories? So, if she does, Viola Davis and Cruz chances are almost over, but if she misses the nod in lead due to vote split or category confusion, she might also let one spot free for another one. However, I think it will finally be quite standard, and she'll become one of the double nominee club members.
Anyway, this is crazy. And do you say you do this every year?
Damn, I fear for Leonardos Oscar chances now. What lesson will he learn if he's not nominated?
Never work with Kate Winslet again!!! She gets nominated when they work together and he doesn't.
And really, I don't get the slumdog love. I just don't see how the hell it is a best picture winner so I hope it doesn't go all the way.
iggy...
i dunno the heat on Winslet seems to be cooling. To me at least it seems like a fan wish only (i include myself as a fan)...
i think it's down to cruz vs. davis
Rick said: on the blog I sent, I truly do not know what happened to the lettering... I am not drunk... YET!
Nate, I think Hathaway is also a lock. She is in every list I've seen so far. Winslet and Jolie are 99%.
Jim
For the Supporting Actress category I think Adams, Tomei,DeWitt and Henson are all on Shaky grounds.
I love Taraji and would love to see her get a nomination, but she didn't get a Globe nod and she's only won one critic award.
Tomei and DeWitt are Winning Critics awards but they each either didn't get the Globe or SAG nod.
Adams- Haven't won any critics awards, but she has both SAG and Globe nods. But will people vote her #1 on the Oscar list I highly Doubt it.
Viola, Cruz and Winslet (if they don't see fraud) are the only locks in this category.
Tomei, DeWitt, Henson, Adams in that order (of liklihood).
PICTURE
1. Slumdog Millionaire (I wonder if they're still going to try to sell it as the underdog)
2. The Curious Case of Benjamin Button
3. Frost/Nixon
4. Milk
5. This is where it gets interesting... I think it could be The Dark Knight or The Reader... However, currently my #5 predix right now is WALL·E, my favourite movie of the year and I'm guessing it'll have a lot of #1 placements.
ACTOR
1, 2 and 3: Rourke, Penn and Langella...
4. Brad Pitt (returning to my predix after months of absence)
5. Leonardo DiCaprio, Jenkins or Eastwood could all make it. Eaastwood got the Oscar nom for MDB even after SAG and GG snubs. Jenkins could get in just as Gosling got in in 2006. However, I still think DiCaprio is barely holding on...
ACTRESS
1. Meryl Streep
2. Anne Hathaway
3. Kate Winslet
4. Angelina Jolie (when I think of it this performance is a lot more awards-friendly than her tour de force in A Mighty Heart)
5. Hawkins, Leo or Scott-Thomas. It's the Independent Slot! Remember Emily Watson got in in 2006 which could mean Scott-Thomas. However, I still think Hawkins is number 5.
NOTE: I knew the Blanchett stories would never materialize!
S. Actor
1. The Joker :P
2. PSH
3. Josh Brolin
4. Robert Downey, Jr.
5. Franco or Patel... I'm leaning towards Franco... SAG LOVES THEIR CHILDREN!!!!
S. Actress
1. Penélope
2. Viola
3. Kate
4 and 5 could go to either Tomei, Henson or Adams. I am currently leaning towards Adams and Henson.
jim how could there be 4 locks for best actress when there's still 7 candidates who keep showing up in lineups? 7 people in play indicates a broad spread of opinion (like in 2003... only not as severe since this year doesn't have two clear leaders like 2003 did in Theron & Keaton) which means almost anyone might be vulnerable to a shocking snub.
But Nate, These 4 women are nominated for both a Globe and a SAG. They have also been nominated for almost everything. Leo has a SAG nod but not a Globe nod. Thomas the other way around. Hawkins, the same as Thomas. I don't agree that there are 7 that trade places each time. There are 4 steady choices and there are 3 (4 with Blanchett but she is not an issue anymore I think) who trade places.
Jim
I think that this SAG nomination was all that Dev Patel needed to jump to that fifth slot for supporting actor that one of the "Milk" guys (Franco or Hirsch) could never seem to really materialize. It wasn't going to Michael Shannon, or to Bill Irwin either (dammit), and I don't buy that it's blatant category fraud for Patel (the supporting placement can be justified -- I think it's fine and similar to the three Brionys in "Atonement") or that it's only a "SAG LOVES CHILDREN!" reduction. If voters love "Slumdog Millionaire" (which it seems they do), Patel could easily get thrown in there for the ride, and I'd be happy to see that happen. It's one of my favorite films of the year, and I'm glad that it's being received in this way. And like it or not, the Academy's trying to diversify their roster with some new and foreign names now. That helps him greatly too. I'm not saying he has any chance of winning (that Oscar has Heath Ledger's name on it now, regardless of if "TDK" gets into BP, which I'm starting to think sadly won't make it in now), but a nomination's happening, and a SAG nod was all I needed to pencil him in over James Franco. The rest (Brolin, RDJ, Hoffman, and Ledger) seems locked and loaded now.
I would consider Streep and Hathaway locks, honestly. Streep because she's Streep and Hathaway because of precursors. That NBR win is really significant. Oscar hasn't snubbed an NBR winner since Mia Farrow in "Alice."
Nathaniel is right in that among the other three spot, it's a free for all among six actresses (Blanchet, Jolie, Leo, Hawkins Scott Thomas and Winslet). It's so volatile. I absolutely love it.
I'm seriously afraid we're going to have a Keisha Castle Hughes situation with Dev Patel. His supporting nod at the SAGs may translate as a surprise lead actor nod come Oscar time. And best actor is so crowded, he'll likely rob someone more deserving of a nomination. Especially if he AND Eastwood get in. Yikes.
Like everyone else has mentioned, this race seems so much more volatile than previous years. I don't know if it's b/c of the crowded fields or the constant surprises/snubs, but it's getting more and more interesting.
I have to agree with Nathaniel on a lot. First off, is there really a need to nominate the cast of Doubt when basically all of them already got a nod? That spot could have gone to a plethora of other equally deserving casts. Also, I really didn't anticipate Brad getting in over Leo, seeing as that the role of the latter's seems so much more demanding and up SAG's alley than the former's. That's just my feeling; I could be wrong. On the plus side, I like the Jenkins mention, although it did come at Leo's expense.
Best Actress is a complete tossup. The Sally snub was slightly surprising when considering she's won about 75% of the critics' awards. Melissa Leo is definitely picking up steam, so she could very well hear her name on Oscar nomination morning.
Lastly, I know the SAGs have only existed for a little more than a decade, but from a historical standpoint, they usually match up with AMPAS pretty closely, don't they?
Jim/Anon - I wrote this entry last year that lists all the acts who were nominated for SAG and for Golden Globes and then failed to get an Oscar nom. Names include Zhang Ziyi, Russell Crowe, Richard Gere, Dennis Quaid, Hayden Christensen, Maria Bello, Cate Blanchett, Jim Carrey, Jane Horrocks and Anjelica Houston. Plus, add Ryan Gosling from last year and that's a very good argument for "SAG + GG doesn't necessarily = Oscar"
Wouldn't it scary if Dev Patel pulled a Keisha Castle-Hughes and wound up in Best Actor?!? LOL. And Nat, you keep saying Slumdog has no way of losing. Well, neither did Brokeback Mountain and people always point to SAG for giving their ensemble prize to something else as a bellwether to a possible Oscar upset. If something like Milk or Button can pull off the ensemble prize (very likely, no?) then who's to say it can't pull off the surprise at the Oscars?
And, seriously, I keep getting a feeling that Kate Winslet is going to get an Oscar nod for Best Actress, but for The Reader instead of Rev. Road. Crazy, I know...
Anyway, the SAG nominees this year are lame. Last year Michael Clayton got three acting noms and no ensemble so why not this year with Doubt?
the "fact sheet" that came with the SAG nominations listed ralph fiennes previous nominations - including best male lead and motion picture cast for shakespeare in love
how seriously are we meant to take an awards body that can't even tell the fiennes brothers apart?
I'm so happy for Kate... she can turn any role into magic.
par good point.
it's also frustrating that so many media pundits write it up in such a way that it gives SAG more credence than it deserves.
i keep reading significant overlapwith Oscar voters. But, unless they changed the rules (which they might have) SAG has a random drawing for the nominating committee and SAG has, what, 90,000 members (?) whereas AMPAS only has 1,000ish actors.
I've had friends that have been on SAG's nominating committee who have basically only done bit parts. They aren't AMPAS members. All the actors in AMPAS are SAG members yes. But 1000 out of 90000 is not significant overlap. Especially when you consider that the other 89000 are eligible to be on the nominating committee ;)
but i'm bad at math. I'm just theorizing here.
Glenn's right that a lot of GG + SAG have not won awards.
styx this argument "i love the film so i'm glad it's happening" is the whole frustration though. You can love a film and realize that the lead performance (Dev Patel) is not great acting. If you love the film and you're an AMPAS actor, why not just nominate it for Best Picture? Why bless totally standard performances with "best of the year" citations that become history when that means you have to ignore actually amazing work by long time professionals with great careers AND have the film you love competing for best picture.
I don't get the all or nothing approach to nominations. I say look at the category name and nominate accordingly.
I'm not "ignoring" anything. Can't I like Dev Patel's acting without having my tastes called into question? If that knocks out someone else in the process, that's just the way it goes. There's only five slots, and I wouldn't call supporting actor such a deep category this year that Patel's nomination is keeping so many out of a possible nomination. Yeah, I would have liked Bill Irwin or James Franco to gain more traction, but they aren't. I'm also not saying that "Slumdog Millionaire" should be nominated for 20 Oscars, but I thought the film was excellent, and I like seeing it being received in this way. You didn't like it. Got it. But that doesn't mean that everyone that likes it is simply going on autopilot with the love. The love could actually be genuine and its awards prospects earned.
styx --believe me when i say I know that that's "the way it goes"
but i'm kind of an idealist. It's masochistic of me sure but the more idealist loud mouths like me ;) awards people hear from the more they MIGHT actually think about what they're voting on rather than scribbling their favorite film down in every category.
but yes... that's the way it goes. It's like AMY ADAMS getting all these nominations. 100 actresses could have done that part just as well --I love Amy Adams but that is hardly "best of the year" work . It's not even her best work... so why not nominate someone who is really stretching or breaking through or doing something unique than going "ooh, DOUBT has such good acting I'll just put it in every category"
ARGH
as for liking dev patel's acting without your taste being in question... i really am not trying to insult anybody (i apologize if that's the way it comes off) i'm just asking: do you think that's one of the FIVE best performances of the year? And the follow up question... particularly for SAG voters is how many movies did you see?
I just wish they would all take their jobs more seriously. (all 25 nominations come from only 15 movies with literally HALF of the individual performance nominees also enjoying double nominations? it's SO stingy. IT MAKES ME CRAZY. So many fine actors they could honor...
Yes, I think that Dev Patel's performance is one of the best of the year and should be recognized, even in light of what's being snubbed. I wouldn't be going through this exchange with you if I thought otherwise.
Predictions:
Ensemble: Doubt
Actor: Langella
Actress: Streep
Supp Actor: Downey, Jr.
Supp Actress: Cruz
Stunts: Dark Knight
Wanted to ask a rather delayed question Nathaniel, though i'm not sure it will be answered since this topic is now further down the FE homepage.
I know you said that Benjamin Button is not really an actors film, but i'm curious (no pun intended)as to why you think it will win the SAG for Best Ensemble.
Cheers
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