Saturday, March 28, 2009
"Actress Psychic" ~ 3 Days Left to Enter
If you've already entered the contest you should have received notification this morning that your entry has been processed. If you haven't yet, join us. There's already a clear collective prediction for the Academy's 5-wide Best Actress shortlist... funny how that happens, even in a year with as many potentially viable candidates as this one. Another 40 women have been mentioned on anywhere from a single ballot to a good 20% of them.
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38 comments:
Am still stewing over my predictions. "Nine" is such a big question mark. One or two of these three ladies: Marion Cotillard, Nicole Kidman or Penelope Cruz, will get pushed into the lead category if only to clear up the supporting campaigns. Can't wait to see the movie now!
Am I the only one who thinks NINE won't get nominated for any acting categories?
I think that Nicole Kidman or Marion Cotillard might get pushed into lead.
Marion could be Supporting for Public Enemies, and they won't want Penelope Cruz to split her votes [a la Kate Winslet this year, being campaigned in Supporting for Reader] and not be nominated for Nine or Broken Embraces. Then again, if Kate Winslet couldn't pull off the double nom this year, I doubt Penelope Cruz will pull it off, especially a year after winning.
I'm still figuring out my shortlist. It's so difficult to pick, I found it easier choosing which colleges to apply to last year.
Catherine: Haha... I know what you mean... For actressexuals this is like a LIFE-SIZE important decision to make.
I was going to say... you know this decision is as important as those college applications! ;) CHOOSE WISELY
um, I thought Nicole had a very small part in Nine?? So how would she be pushed to lead??? Sorry, I would join, but I vowed not to get into the Oscar race/oscar watching this year.I think I'll enjoy the movies and performances much better without hearing someone is a lock or something is overrated or any advanced buzz.
I didn't put Streep in my predictions, and I think that may have been a mistake. I was counting on her going supporting with Amy Adams going lead. :/
I found it really hard to pick and ended up going with the general formula of previous nominees + the young starlet nomination + a surprising child nominee.
-DJ
Well, mine's done.
I wonder how close mine will be to the overall consensus. Fairly close, I'm guessing.
This is exciting! Thanks, Nathaniel, for putting in all the work every year.
Nat, I would be very surprised if my picks match the consensus. The earlier the prediction is made, the more eccentric (and wrong) I am. I usually get more mainstream (and accurate) in the stretch.
I'm taking a lot more risks this year, which may not be such a good idea considering last year I didn't win because of taking a single risk.
I had Winslet (Reader), Hawkins, Streep and Jolie.
For my last spot I was between Portman (Brothers) and Hathaway. Thought Portman was an original choice...
Haha! Hope we get a weird no-Streep season!
I just did all of my Best Actress lineups from 2001 on (I still have more to see from 2000) and I've decided that's the quickest way to determine someone's personality. It was interesting to break down the individual totals because only six actresses appeared more than once, and it kinda surprised me to see who they were: La Kidman (with an unparalelled 4 nominations - she truly is the most productive leading actress of this decade), La Blanchett (3), and Julianne, Penelope, Gwyneth, and Audrey Tautou with 2 Best Actress nominations each.
Some other fun statistics: Meryl Streep hasn't received a single (leading) nomination from me all decade long, 20% of my nominees from this decade have been for non-English roles, and I've agreed with the Academy on slightly less than 33% of its Best Actress nominees.
ok nay who r the top 5 and who is the 1 person you r surprised is left out.
mrripley... i can't reveal yet. not fair to influence people's choices since some of you have already entered blind.
2009 is the year for Meryl Streep. This woman can play any role! What a class act and a hard act to follow...go Meryl!
Michelle Pfeiffer for "Cheri" I'm convinced.
Nothing on Vera Farmiga in the Niki Caro movie? I'm not sure I'll predict her, but Caro is 2/2 as far as Best Actress nominees go.
Hey,Cheri!
So you left Lea for Meryl.hehe
Pfiffer,
Streep,
Adams,
Tattou,
and probably some unexpected new shining star that will come about sometime in lat november. but, for now I will say...
Portman
I'm guessing that the Collective Prediction is...
Mulligan
Pfeiffer
Streep for Julie & Julia
Swank
The last spot is weird, though...
Connelly, Cornish, Cruz, Mirren (The Tempest), Portman (either) or Tatou?
Maybe Cornish?
Cornish, Mulligan, Pfeiffer, Streep and Swank
2 Previous Winners
1 Previous Nominee
2 New Faces
3 Americans
2 Brits
3 Real Life Characters
1 Original Character
1 Literary Character
Sounds strangely likely...
I think Mulligan will get overlooked. I don't think her film even has a distributor yet.
I refuse to predict Hilary Swank, not only since it seems too obvious on paper, but also because I really think the academy is done with her for quite a while, possibly forever. There's still too much backlash from the two wins. Like Sally Field, she may get some globe noms, but oscar voters just won't be able to muster up quite enough enthusiasm to bring her back. I think she gets the globe drama nod this year, but no corresponding oscar stamp of approval.
I also don't think Cruz can make it in for ANOTHER Pedro adventure. Once was enough of a coup. Two foreign language lead nods for one actress is a very rare thing. And it's not like she's exactly "due" anymore.
So for those reasons, I doubt mine will match up with the generic choices.
What I'm having trouble with is which film to predict Meryl for. Both will get attention... but neither may get enough for a nod. And which category is Julia Child?? I think the quality of the Nancy Meyers film may be what decides the category placement for Julie & Julia. Child will most likely outshine the other perf regardless. So if the romantic comedy doesn't have the "oomph" for oscar heat, then it's lead for Julia.
But when I try to think of which comedy performances will get nommed, I keep coming back to Meryl in the Nancy Meyers movie. If it's great, could she really be nommed twice? Or will it turn into another 2002 almost double nom situation? Or will it get shafted for the biopic no matter how good it is?
GAAAAAAAH
I wouldn't be THAT surprised if Penelope Cruz pulled off a second foreign-language Lead performance nomination. It's happened thrice before: Sophia Loren, Isabelle Adjani and Liv Ullmann. Each beautiful, hypnotic actresses greatly respected in their home countries; much like Cruz now.
my prediction is just gee-nee-us. what would be a better way to reward all nine ladies than this?
PENELOPE CRUZ (Broken Embraces) and KATE HUDSON (Big Eyes) in Best Actress (Lead) and then...
MARION COTILLARD (Public Enemies), JUDI DENCH (Rage), NICOLE KIDMAN (Nine) and SOPHIA LOREN (Nine) in Best Supporting Actress.
Just Mad Genius don't you think?
E But what about Fergie???
She can have another Grammy
Or better yet E... she might compose a song for a film (not necessarily NINE) and be nominated for it. ;)
The Nine bonus question caused me a lot of indecision. I agree that one of the actresses will prob. be pushed into a lead category, and Kidman seems like the obvious choice, even with her small role, but I still voted for her as best supporting. I don't think Cruz will be pushed into lead contention because she has a shot for that with Broken Embraces.
Am I the only one who thought Mirren might get nominated for Love Ranch?
Christine... you are not. There are relatively few women who have only one vote ... though we're now up to 60 actresses on someone's ballot.
tier 1 has 5 women. a clearly defined top 5. How strange.
tier 2 has 4 women who almost have a whole lot of support
tier 3 has 8 more women who are in the double digits of ballots.
and the other 43 women are fighting for the scraps of the ballots...
I've just realised I came at the bottom of last years list (by a huge margin).
I'm beginning to regret my choices for this year already - I doubt any of them will be in the top five predictions. Why don't I try to fit the consensus more - then I'd at least be clos to the rest of the pack when I get them wrong.
Although saying that I also have 3 real people and 2 from literary sources. 2 previous winners, 1 previous nominee and 2 new faces.
Maybe it's not so poor after all.
And 3 American's and 2 Brits.
Curious how alike it is to the colective (as guessed by Bernardo).
Isn't Cornish Australian?
I clasified the categories of Lead Actress contenders:
*The classic veteran actress:
-Brenda Blethyn
-Michelle Pfeiffer
-Helen Mirren (I vote for The "Tempest", but I don't discount "Love Ranch")
-(Again) Meryl Streep
*The romantic (Epic) heroin:
-Abbie Cornish
-Romola Garai
-Rachel McAdams - After Benjamin button sucess...
-Emily Blunt
-Carey Mulligan
-Natalie Portman
*The Real Life Characters:
-Abbie Cornish
-Sophie Okonedo
-audrey Tautou
-Giovanna Mezzogiorno
-Liya Kebede
-Emily Blunt
-Hilary Swank (With two roles: Amelia Earhart and Betty Ann-A la Erin Brockovitz-Waters)
-Emily Watson
-Rachel Weisz
-Renee Zellweger (Again like Swank two roles, Dahan and Loncraine's films)
-Meryl Streep
-Ziyi Zhang
-Kate Hudson
-Claire Danes
-"Halle Berry" (I heard so, but I'm not sure)
-Julie Delpy
Foreign Language Character:
-(Again) Kristin Scott Thomas, in Partir (With Sergi Lopez)
-Giovanna Mezzogiorno
-Ziyi Zhang
-Audrey Tautou
-Birgit Minichmayr
-Sandra Corveloni (Cannes winner's last year)
*The indie and/or surprising actress at the middle of the season: We still don't know...
*Comedy Roles:
-Renee Zellweger, My one and Only
-Sally hawkins (A make-up nomination?)
-Evan Rachel Wood (Another make-up possible nomination)
-Maya Rudolph (She could be the seventh comediant from SNL nominated to the Oscars, but I think the first when she's still in the show)
-Jessica Biel
-Michelle Pfeiffer (according to the trailer)
-Ellen Page
*Suffering Heroin, Wife and/or Mother:
-Brenda Blethyn
-Natalie Portman
-Giovanna Mezzogiorno
-Hilary Swank (BAW)
-Cameron Diaz
-Romola Garai
-sophie Okonedo
-Emily Watson
I must be nuts:
- 5 Brits
- 1 in a language other than English
- 1 black actress
- 1 in her 20s
- 2 in their late 30s/early 40s
- 1 in her late 40s
- 1 in her mid-60s
- 1 real person
- 2 literary characters
- 3 previous nominees
- 1 previous winner
So my predictions will be:
Best Lead Actress:
1. Helen Mirren, The Tempest:
She has two juicy roles (With Love Ranch) but I think her Prospera will get the recognition. The only thing she won't have it will be split votes.
2. Sophie Okonedo, Skin:
With Kedalla, Berry, Sidibe and her, it's time for return to a black actress (Not necessary american)... I think Okonedo has the most Oscarish role. She plays a real character (Victim for Apartheid) and she gets two spots (diversity and british).
3. American star:
Difficult, I heard AWFUL things of Amelia at test screeners, so -if the tendency is correct- maybe Swank chances will be for Betty Ann Waters- but I'm agree with Adam K., if Vivian Leigh didn't make it, Why Hilary Swank will do it?. I also don't think Meryl Streep will make it (she will win but for August: osage County or The Glass Menagerie adaptation). Hollywood loves mini comebacks so I say:
Renee Zellweger, With any of her two films
4. The IT girl:
Mulligan films was acclaimed at Sundance, but she could be another "Frozen River" or another "Quinceañera" or worse, suffering the Kristin Scott Thomas's curse. Abbie Cornish's film is still too unknow. Saorsie Ronan could be nominated for supporting actress and Ellen page's film is too indie and "relax" for AMPAS. So I think she will be:
Natalie Portman, Brothers:
-Sheridan has excellent record at acting nominees.
-Her role is a perfect suffering mother and wife.
-She could be the first Asian actress nominated for a Lead Oscar (Portman was born in Jerusalem and she has dual nationality)
-She has a NAME in Hollywood and she was nominated before.
5. Giovanna Mezzogiorno, Vincere:
If Hollywood wants another foreign-language performance, Mezzogiorno is the biggest possibility (Especially if the film won at Cannes-according with rumors).
Alternative: A surprising contender.
About NINE James Colon, I don't think this Marshall's film will be empty for acting category. I think this would be AT LEAST one nomination (A veteran actress in supproting: Dench or Loren). The cast is TOO big and important too ignore, even if the film is mixed. I also think if the film is very likely, even beloved, would broke the Tom Jones's record and we'll have three actress nominated in suporting category with Day-Lewis in leading category (i wouldn't be surprising if the film is the most nominated of the year). Plus: The sentimental factor... Harvey Weinstein is back and Anthony Minghella behind the strategy.
Nathaniel:
I am still sticking with my "no more than two of five" from the consensus to the eventual shortlist, but I am becoming intrigued by your earlier suggestion that the current totals show a relatively solid break between the top nine and what you have characterized in the past as 'vote siphoners'. While the consensus five have shown the tendency to have only two survivors, I believe that the top nine or so have had four of the eventual nominees the last two years. So on the original question from the first contest, which asks whether the consensus does a credible job, I'd have to say yes.
And I am truly surprised.
Oops - I goofed. Laura Linney was 14th in the Actress Psychic balloting that first year. For some reason I thought she was in the top nine. The age thing is creeping up on my memory with no-longer-glacial speed...
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