This year's supporting actress contest (new predictions!), if you believe early hype, is down to Mo'Nique vs. ummmm? She's way out front for her abusive mother role in Precious. But with Julianne Moore's supposedly vivid contribution to Tom Ford's A Single Man newly exciting festival auds, we could see the redhead goddess nab her 5th career nomination. That's quite an honor, even if she never wins that elusive statue.
The Man That A couple of years ago I asked readers who the next Deborah Kerr would be. Which modern important actress will be forever appreciated but never fully embraced by the Academy of Motion Picture Arts and Sciences? Back then Kate Winslet was sort of gunning for the honor. Now that the English Rose has noisily moved into the winner's circle, the imaginary competition is back on. Although maybe it's no competition at all. The honor (?), at this point, thoroughly belongs to Glenn Close. She's much further away from winning an Oscar now than she ever was before, having abandoned anything like a substantial movie career.
Julianne may have another golden opportunity in the near future as the lead of the western drama Boone's Lick (previous post) but by the time the next next Oscars roll around she'll be 50. And we all know how unlikely it is for women over 50 to win Best Actress. It's only ever happened 8 times in 81 years and 3 of those times the woman's name was Katharine Hepburn, furthering lowering the statistical odds for women of a certain age. Since Julianne so often toggles between supporting roles and lead parts, maybe we should call her the next Deborah Kerr (6 Lead Actress noms / 0 wins) AND Thelma Ritter (6 Supporting Actress noms / 0 wins) combined.
Either way, it's just an honor to be nominated. And a pretty substantial honor to be nominated so many times. Even if you should, like Julie Ann, already have 2 gold boys on the shelf. If Moore pulls off this fifth nomination on February 2nd, 2010 she'll be in the very elite club of actresses to have been honored 5 times or more.
The Top 27 Oscar Women
- Meryl Streep (15 noms, 2 wins)
- Katherine Hepburn (12 noms, 4 wins) deceased
- Bette Davis (10 noms, 2 wins) deceased
- Geraldine Page (8 noms, 1 win) deceased
- Ingrid Bergman (7 noms, 3 wins) deceased
- Jane Fonda (7 noms, 2 wins) out of retirement - yay! Now where are the Big Drama roles?
- Greer Garson (7 noms, 1 win) deceased
- (tie) Jessica Lange and Maggie Smith (6 noms, 2 wins)
- (5 way tie and all of them are still working regularly -- someone will break this tie) Sissy Spacek, Vanessa Redgrave, Judi Dench, Kate Winslet and Ellen Burstyn (6 noms, 1 win)
- (Oscarless tie) Deborah Kerr & Thelma Ritter (6 noms, 0 wins) both deceased
- (tie) Elizabeth Taylor and Olivia de Havilland (5 noms, 2 wins) both retired
- (7 way tie) Cate Blanchett, Audrey Hepburn deceased, Shirley Maclaine*, Anne Bancroft deceased, Jennifer Jones retired, Susan Sarandon Norma Shearer** deceased (5 noms, 1 win)
- (Oscarless tie) Glenn Close & Irene Dunne deceased (5 noms, 0 wins)
**Norma Shearer could also be considered tied for 9th depending on how you count her double nomination.
Actresses with fewer nominations are too plentiful to list... but Julianne Moore, Emma Thompson and Frances McDormand are looking like the current (only?) threats to the esteemed company above. That should give you a clue as to how rare 5^ nominations truly is in Oscar's 81 years.
Think Julie will pull it off on February 2nd?
*
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101 comments:
I love it when you put brilliant actresses and Oscar possibilities and statistics in one post!!
I am kind of afraid Julianne won't get the nod this year. She'll have to beat all the Nine girls. Not easy.
I think everybody forgets about Academy's unfairness towards Kidman just because she has an Oscar. To me, number of nominations is more important and Nicole only has 2.
I also want to ask (perhaps a silly question) about An Education. It will be considered a drama in the Globes right? I mean, thhere is a lot of humour but it's not really a comedy.
God, I hope Julianne gets in! Maybe Oscar will feel guilty for not awarding her yet and give it to her, like they did with Kate Winslet last year (I was Team Hathaway).
Is it sad that my life dream is for Julianne Moore to win an Oscar? sigh
If you would have told me 5 years ago, heck 2 years ago, the Mo'nique would one day make a film that's very well received by critics and she becomes an Oscar buzz favorite, my reaction would have been one of the following:
1) Punch you in the face.
2) Dying of laughter
3) Putting you in a mental institution
To be honest I really have to see Precious at some point, because I just can't see Mo'Nique as doing anything good.
Nicole Kidman will get 4 nominations by 2011 because she'll be nominated for both "Rabbit Hole" and "The Danish Girl".
Yes i do about time she was back in play and firth is a real contender.i think you are close with your noms but take out kendrick and put in dench for gods sake oscar and bafta love her.
Here's a prediction for you, Nat: Mo'Nique gets nominated but she kills her chances to win with her new talk debuting October 5 on BET. Bad idea, Mo'Nique. Her loss, however, is Gabourey Sidibe's gain. Precious is going to take home one and one only statue on Oscar night. Best Actress, Best Picture, Best Director, Best Adapted Screenplay? I say Sidibe for the win...
...today, anyway. ;-)
My main concern from A Single Man is whether or not Colin Firth will FINALLY get a nomination, but Julianne Moore is criminally overdue as well.
I'm rooting for both to get nods.
Boone's Lick is not happening I think, but she might have a shot at The Golden Man with The Kids Are All Right, whose subject is very timely.
No joke, I dreamed I met her at the post-Oscar party after she won. She was still wearing her 60s clothes/'do. Because in dreamland, Oscar nominees come dressed as their characters.
I loved Julianne Moore in "Far From Heaven." She should have won for that.
Damn you Nicky Kidman and your fake nose!
I love her more than she hasn't won. If you does win, would be like Susan Lucci?
1. Moore won't get that fifth oscar nod with A Single Man. The reviews are so consistently singling out Firth and I think the Weinsteins will back him to the exclusion of all else. It might get a costume design nod, though.
2. I do think Moore will be one of those "nodded-but-never-wins type actresses." Especially more so now. Look at her nominations. Four nominations in films that combined for eighteen nominations (in a six year stretch). Now, look at the six years since. Only two of her films cracked the oscar line-up: I'm Not There and Children of Men. Moore's films, simply speaking, aren't aimed at the academy any more. She's made so many bad/mediocre films that she's thoroughly off the radar, in my mind.
3. The upside, this year? She has three films coming out (two have releases for sure) AND, according to imdb, she has an Alice Munro adaptation of her plate (the legendary short story writer who's work was adapted in Away from Her).
I love Julianne Moore, but I don't think she'll be nominated for this. Firth is getting all the love. For my predictions, I think Weisz is in before Sarandon, and Marion Cotillard is in instead of Moore. And if they decide to go with two Nine ladies instead of two Up in the Air ladies, it will be Cruz in the place of.....?
It's gonna be so depressing. Oscar winner Mo'Nique of Phat Girlz fame... vs. Oscar NOMINEE Julianne Moore of so-many-classics-fame.
When it comes to Julianne Moore's Oscar chances I "hope for the best but prepare for the worst." You never know, Geraldine Page went through decades of critical love and snubs before her Oscar win finally came. Maybe it'll be the same for Ms. Moore. :)
Paul Outlaw - Hey now, Oprah got a nomination when she had a talk show. Why not Mo'Nique?
@Wayne B..."The Color Purple" came out before The Oprah Winfrey show first aired.
Get Low got moved to 2010 so Spacek should be removed.
Whoops, my bad, thanks Know-It-All. Oprah's been on TV since before I was born, so I just assumed. Should never assume because it just makes an... never mind. :)
Get Low already moved to 2010? It just barely got announced for 2009?
how quickly the distribution winds change.
@ Wayne B:
I actually said that Mo'Nique would be nominated. She's a shoo-in. But the talk show will kill her chances of winning IMO.
Can I just say that I hate how Mo'Nique says "axe" instead of "ask". I HATE THAT!
I think she has a good shot and some other people do to like Anne Thompson. She has gotten good notice, and the supporting actress category is thinning out (but at the same time still feels crowded) with Shutter Island moving, Patricia Clarkson will no way get in for Whatever Works, The Lovely Bones is a big question mark and Saoirse has been (rightly) confirmed to be campaigned in leading. So I guess at this point it seems to boil down to the Nine and Up in the Air ladies.
But hopefully this isn't all wishful thinking so I can see Julianne back in the race again finally.
Remember the reviews for The Wrestler? They were all about Rourke, but Tomei got in.
There's been a few times that a film with strong best actor buzz pulled in a supporting actress nomination.
Rourke and Tomei, as mentioned above (and you could argue that she was not as buzzed about for 'In the Bedroom' as Spacek and Wilkinson); Don Cheadle got all the buzz for 'Hotel Rwanda', but Sophie Okonedo got a nom too; and Shoreh Agdashloo for 'House of Sand and Fog', and Marcia Gay Harden for 'Pollock' could fall into this category, too. Samantha Morton for 'Sweet and Lowdown' also comes to mind. Moore could get in if they like the movie enough.
well plus: they like Moore.
it's not like not-winning indicates they don't like you. it's that they're never quite "gushing with love"... their love is steady and unfeverish with some performers. but that's enough for nominations.
I hope you forgive my saying so, but I think you missed dear Audrey Hepburn (5 nominations, 1 win).
EEK. i fixed it. How did i do that?
thanks Pablete.
Oh, man. It kinda bummed me out to see all those deceaseds.
I like Moore's chances for getting nominated for this, but I don't see any way she wins. And she ONLY gets nominated if (and it's still a big "if") Firth is nominated, too.
Well, I suppose she could pull a Linney in Kinsey, but that's highly unlikely, and that only worked cause Neeson was firmly in the hunt, and a rather surprising snub in a crowded year.
Whoever said best actor buzzed films often pull in supporting actresses is right. And this works even better when the supporting actresses are oscar favorites.
I just see it as a "welcome back, we still love you" type nod... but as she is not the film's standout, that's as far as it will go... Mo'Nique is stampeding everyone for that statue.
I think the noms will be some combo of Mo'Nique, Julianne, the 2 Up in the Air women, and the 3 Nine women. As of now, only Mo'Nique is safe.
Is this post a reaction to my comment in your towleroad article????
"Here's a prediction for you, Nat: Mo'Nique gets nominated but she kills her chances to win with her new talk debuting October 5 on BET. Bad idea, Mo'Nique. Her loss, however, is Gabourey Sidibe's gain. Precious is going to take home one and one only statue on Oscar night. Best Actress, Best Picture, Best Director, Best Adapted Screenplay? I say Sidibe for the win...
...today, anyway. ;-)"
I don't think increased visibility is ever a bad thing, unless she's getting arrested or something.
Yeah I see no problem with the talk show.
Unless it's terrible.
I mean it's not like a Norbit... or a Bride Wars...
To Nathaniel: What do you think of Kim Basinger's performance in L.A Confidential
Well, if the talk show is like Charlie Rose, Dick Cavett or Tavis Smiley, okay.
But if it's like Rosie O'Donnell, Arsenio or Tyra, that's where I see the problem...
Thank you, Nathaniel!
I really cannot imagine a supporting actress category without at least ONE nomination for a Nine lady. Yet, at the same time, I really do see Julianne Moore pulling out a nomination for A Single Man. I agree, it will be a 'yes, we still like you, welcome back' nomination. I'm hesitant about the two ladies from Up in the Air. It depresses me beyond words, but I feel like Vera will be left off. I'm not familiar with Kendrick's work (I've seen her in Twilight--I'm not counting that...and I never saw Camp-I was in musical theatre for 7 years and I couldn't bear to see a film revolved around obnoxious, theatre kids, which is what I have been trying to escape since then).
The women from the Lovely Bones are still the biggest question mark. I have my money on Rachel Weisz. I think if she pulls it off (which she probably will, she's a fine actress), it will be a really gut-wrenching performance that the Academy will honor. The academy likes to honor actors who had they had previously rewarded--a kind of justification like they weren't wrong in the first place (does that make sense...like Charlize Theron in North Country after her Monster win)
Right now, I'm betting on:
Marion Cotillard, Nine
Penelope Cruz, Nine (she's the most vulnerable IMO)
Julianne Moore, A Single Man
Mo'Nique, Precious
Rachel Weisz, The Lovely Bones
And p.s., yes we all know Mo'Nique will be nominated, and yes she's the frontrunner. Does anyone else think, like me, that this undying buzz could backfire? It didn't stop J.Hud for Dreamgirls, but maybe, in a perfect world, the Academy will feel so guilty for eternally ignoring Moore and giving her the statuette instead? sighh...
Okay, done. sorry. long post.
Of course I agree that before last January, no one was thinking "Mo'Nique" and "Oscar" as likely to intersect. But I'm kinda surprised that so many people's surprise comes out like, "HER??????!!!!!!!!" It's not like she isn't talented, or that she hasn't done really well at her other stocks-in-trade in comedy and on TV. It reminds me of when L.A. Confidential came out, and people were like, "The guy who made The River Wild and The Hand that Rocks the Cradle made THIS??" The surprise at seeing a performer raise their game and land unexpectedly on Oscar's radar, I totally understand, and I share it; but the temptation to hold up the other/earlier work as though it wasn't perfectly solid for what it is/was, I'm a little baffled by. What's so wrong with Mo'Nique?
Closer to the thread, I think Glenn Close could easily still win. If she gets Osage, which she could, it's sorta her trophy to lose. In any case, now that Damages and The Shield have brought her so far back into the spotlight, and given that her 80s performances were so iconic (especially FA and DL that no one has ever stopped thinking of her as a bonafide film actor), she'll have a huge wave of "She's owed" behind her if the right role ever gets her close, so to speak, to the race.
Compare: Ellen Burstyn got five nominations and a Tony in less than ten years, was gone from Oscar's radar for 20, and then could easily have won if Erin Brockovich weren't such a tidal wave, and if she didn't already have the Alice trophy in her past. Glenn got five nominations and her first of three Tonys in less than ten years, and has been gone from Oscar's radar for 20 years and counting. If she hits a Requiem for a Dream or an August: Osage or a Long Day's Journey-type project, and she's at least strong in it, she's Burstyn + Owed, which is quite a combo.
People shouldn't bash Mo'nique. Sure, the buzz around her is surprising but that only means she's improving and talented which isn't a bad thing regardless of her past projects. Its not like she doesn't deserve it, she easily could have been mediocre in this film or not add anything to the role but she did and she did a great job(supposedly, I haven't watched yet). If anything we should be happy about this, if your complaining then that means you prefer her to be a bad actress then a good one which means your probably a pessimistic as_hole.
P.S. I'm not bashing Mo'Nique, I'm bashing talk shows. ;-)
I always like Mo'Nique the dramatic actress, I sometimes like Mo'Nique the comic actress, and I'm not a fan of Mo'Nique the TV host (reality or awards show).
Nathaniel, I totally agree with your reaction to Antichrist. Though I wouldn't give it less than C. Still, pretty confused.
What if Moore pulls off a Tilda-Swinton-move??? Swinton wasn't singled out as the standout of Michael Clayton either.
@Paul: Oh, I know you're not. A few of the comments here (like Mame's, though I'm not picking on you, either, Mame) just reminded me of much more heated or overblown comments I've heard elsewhere -- and from folks who certainly haven't seen the movie, so it's not the aghast "How could THIS performance possibly win?", which we all feel about SOMETHING, but a "How could THIS performer possibly deserve to win?", which feels so churlish and cynical, just like Juno says.
1. Am I the only person here who finds himself asking... Who's MoNique again?
2. I worry that Julianne might be in that bad zone where her noms were too recent for them to feel she's owed a comeback nod, but far enough away that she seems like yesterday's news. And I especially worry about this because A Single Man, with its 60s setting and theme of sexual repression, feels a little too Julianne.
3. Yes, I am too plentiful to be listed, thank you. I'll put that on my business cards post haste.
It'd be interesting to see Julianne Moore pull a Tilda Swinton, as Anonymous stated. But the circumstances would have to be just right. Even though Swinton had the best performance the year she won, she didn't win because she had the best performance. That was compounded by so many factors. Cate Blanchett would have probably been the de-facto frontrunner had she not already won two years earlier. The double-dipping for Elizabeth probably tipped it against her. Amy Ryan's early steamroll in that category stopped with the BFCA and failed to pick up traction after that. Ruby Dee as a fairly late entrant pulled "overdue/sentimentality" votes, especially after the SAG win. I think what happened in that situation was that the votes were very evenly split among Ryan, Dee and Blanchett just enough for Swinton to pull votes from the "Michael Clayton" fans and edge out the competition. I'm fairly confident that if the actual tabulations were available, supp. actress 2007 would emerge as one of the more competitive races in recent memory.
Someone above mentioned Jennifer Hudson and the "They're giving it to HER?!?!?!?" initial surprise with her winning and I wonder if any Academy voters will think twice about voting for Mo'Nique because they'll have two of those in the same category in such a short span of time. A sort of "Well, we already have, of all people, Jennifer Hudson as a winner, do we really want, of all people, Mo'Nique?"
I just think that because the Academy did give a win to someone who isn't normally considered an "actress" (Hudson) that they might use this year to award someone considered long overdue (Moore) instead of awarding another seemingly unlikely "actress" (Mo'Nique).
I could be completely wrong and maybe they don't care at all, but it's just something to think about.
Oh, and as far as the Tilda Swinton factor goes, "Michael Clayton" was a Best Picture nominee without a chance of winning as well as the only film to garner more than one acting nomination that year. Though I consider Swinton's performance the strongest in its category, I think her win was more of a way for the Academy to honor her film.
Alex...
Jennifer was like a fifth runner-up on "American Idol." She's a gifted singer, yes, but she was no actress. She's not an actress who has been working in the business for some 15+ years. Other than the fact that they're both black women, I really feel like comparing her to Mo'nique is forced and reductive.
Let's not get elitist and pretend as if there aren't many Oscar nominees and winners with pre and post nomination careers that leave a lot to be desired. Hilary Swank has 2, after all.
Julianne Moore was robbed for Far From Heaven. I hope she can get nominated again this year, as long as it's a great performance.
Hmmm.....
Obviously, for every example, there's a counterexample. Jamie Foxx couldn't get any of the Ray ladies in despite sweeping his way to an obvious win (which, in retrospect, still seems surprising given the totality of his domination and the unbelievable strength of his category, but that's another argument). Forrest Whitaker didn't help the category frauding of James McAvoy. Nor did Mirren help Sheen, Day Lewis help anyone, etc etc.
If A Single Man proves to be a player beyond Firth (say, adapted screenplay and a couple of techs - costume/cinematography/score etc), than yeah - we can't ignore Moore as a possibility.
But I don't think she's an actress the academy's chomping on the bit to embrace. With someone like Kate Winslet (to use a recent example), you see her doing the oscar derby every year or two. Her longest break between nominations was four years, but she was still being recognized by critics and/or guilds (SAG nod for Quills, prize at Venice for Holy Smoke). She was still visible. Moore, again, is more associated with high profile flops (Blindness), mediocre comedies (too many to name), or small films that hardly make a blip (Savage Grace), or great films where she barely registers.
That stated, in odd years, anything can happen.
Now, I like to pretend Moore won for Boogie Nights (I would've voted for McTeer, Kidman and the Zeta in the other years), and I think she needs at least one more nomination to her credit. I'm hoping for the best re: A Single Man. I'm hoping that the Weinsteins don't fuck it up.
Now that some time has passed since I saw A Single Man in Toronto, I am convinced that Julianne Moore will be nominated for the film, and that Colin Firth will be nominated and might even win. Everyone love Colin Firth and he's just so good in the film. And I won't be shocked if the film makes the Best Picture cut. It really is that good.
i reaaaally hope you're right, and she gets nominated, she deserves it so much
and it would be great if she could pull an Alan Arkin
Thanks for this piece, Nat (I think). You just reminded me of how disgusting Kim Basinger's win was, especially considering Moore's performance in Boogie Nights. Basinger should iron and fold Moore's laundry for life as punishment for this idiotic outcome.
As far as an overdue Oscar, I think that should easily go to Sigourney Weaver (nominated 3 times). I think she should have won for Gorillas in the Mist or nominated and won for Death and the Maiden or even A Map of the World (where Julianne Moore co-starred). I love Jodie Foster, but I think she should have won for Nell and not for The Accused even though her performance in The Accused was great. The problem today is that if a film or performance isn't campaigned enough, it can sadly be overlooked. It shouldn't be about the 'best campaigning.'
unclevanya...
the thing is Moore didn't even come in second place that year. It was obviously between Gloria Stuart and Kim Basinger.
I happen to think Basinger deserved her nomination (GASP) but that win was a slam dunk for Moore in a sane world since it might even be the best supporting actress performance of the decade, give or take Judy Davis in Husbands and Wives.
Are you trying to kill me Nat? Judy Davis is who I was thinking of when she lost for Husbands and Wives when i was responding to your topic on Moore. Not to star-fuck, but, I met Davis on a film set with whom I was involved, and all I can say (besides her being one of the unrewarded greats), is that I finally met someone who smoked and drank more than myself (and still was able to work in the morning).
Great post, Nathaniel.
By the way, just a minor correction: Shirley McLaine was nominated 6 times (not 5 times) and won once. Her noms were in the following years: 1959, 1961, 1964, 1976, 1978, 1984.
I also agree that Glenn Close is overdue but I hope she won't win because she is owed an Oscar, but rather for a stellar performance. But politics of popularity, campaigning, publicity and a pedigreed film is as much a factor than the actual performance itself. I thought her most brilliant screen creation was the manipulative Marquise in 'Dangerous Liaisons'. But it was a combination of being too subtle and a rather nihilistic role that did her in. She should have been nominated in 'Reversal of Fortune', 'House of the Spirits', 'Cookie's Fortune' and that very underrated turn in 'Heights'.
Loved to see Julianne win. I admit I was not her biggest fan before. I didn't like her in 'Assassins' and she was uneven in 'Magnolia' but her penchant fro taking artistically challenging roles won me over in recent years. Maybe this year's not her year.
One more thing, Anne Bancroft has 5 nominations and has one win.
I also thought of the Wrestler when considering her chances. She'd get in only if Firth does too.
But actually I'm thinkin this will go like Debra Winger in RGM last year. Big name, kind of overdue, small film, overshadowed by the lead, etc. I see her getting some traction but not getting the nod in the end.
Love that you put Roxane Duran (one 'n') on the list. She has pretty much no chance, but she's fantastic in the film and she deserves some exposure.
Would like to see Rosamund Pike on that list, too. I think she has a chance if An Education really gets the Academy's bush burning.
Shirley MacLaine was nominated five times for acting and once for her documentary.
I find that so weird :-).
I actually like Mo'Nique. It's true it'll be weird to see her proclaimed an oscar winner before so many greats are, but hey it's the oscars, no one should take them as an indicator of talent.
They love actors that come out of nowhere. If you're consistent, however, you're screwed.
I love Nicole Kidman's win for The Hours, absolutely fascinating performance.
Julianne Morre needs to select her projects properly and with extra care, she needs to pull off a good, not even great performances (Kate Winslet in The Reader being a fine example) and she'll win :)
Rachel Weisz is barely seen in The Lovely Bones trailer, something tells me she's out of the race for this one...
The thought of Mo'nique wrapping her hands around an Oscar makes me ill.
but she will!!!!
I like this actress so much. I love to watch her shows.
I wish I could be like her. I love to be famous and would be put on internet so that people in all the world knows about me. :-)
what actress are you guys talking about?
Megan Fox.
Roman Polanski was arrested in Switzerland on the outstanding warrant. The USA now needs to file a formal extradition request.
Let's get one thing correct Nathaniel, Deborah Kerr will always be "The English Rose." :)
I have a feeling that Julianne can get nominated for this. I'm not her biggest fan and, frankly, I've only liked one or two of her performances (that I've seen). However, I think marketing this as a two-hander will get her name out there in a big way, and when there's really no competition for Mo'Nique right now, I'm thinking a name such as Julianne's (who, as for the Winger comparison, is at this point a bigger name than Debra and also has a larger role and has been uniformly praised by critics in trades reviews when Debra wasn't) could fill a spot quite nicely.
I'm not at all convinced that anyone from Nine will be nominated. The entire project smells like an accident waiting to happen, and even if it does get off the ground I think only Cruz is likely for a nod (I consider Cotillard to be a likelier bet for Public Enemies, hoping the Academy will spread things out a little).
Susan Sarandon looks like her role has been beefed up a bit from what it was in the book, but her role on paper is incredibly one-note and she doesn't have a character arc to speak of. Rose McIver and Carolyn Dando - playing Susie's sister and Susie's friend - play much bigger roles and have much meatier, baitier, story arcs. I'd consider both of them more likely than Sarandon (despite not being big names like her). Of course, it remains to be seen whether Ronan and Weisz will campaign Supporting or Lead. From the trailer I'm thinking Ronan has had scenes added and Weisz has had scenes cut, but it could always be the other way around or something else entirely.
My current predictions:
1. Mo'Nique
2. Julianne Moore
3. Vera Farmiga
4. Melanie Laurent
5. Anna Kendrick
6. Marion Cotillard - Public Enemies
7. Penelope Cruz - Nine
8. Marion Cotillard - Nine
9. Judi Dench - Nine
10. Rose McIver, Susan Sarandon or Carolyn Dando OR Rosamund Pike
There's three actresses I am chocked not appearing on your supporting actress prediction
Rosamund Pike - An Education
Emma Thompson - An Education
Betty White - The Proposal (I've read some places that she's a contender)
Kudos, Slayton, for predicting Laurent. I think she's gonna sneak through as well.
anon 1:38. I thought both Pike and Thompson were terrific in AN EDUCATION but Pike's isn't really an Oscar type role (and it's easy to not notice how expertly she's playing something very specific) and Emma is barely in it. hence my doubts...
This is shaping up to be an interesting field. I'm iffy on Sarandon's chances of a nomination, big name notwithstanding. Her character doesn't seem terribly interesting, and if the Academy embraces The Lovely Bones (and I'm not sure it will) I think Weisz is a likelier candidate.
I don't think the Nine women will be completely ignored. I'm predicting Marion Cotillard to occupy a spot, and if there's much love for the film, Penelope Cruz as well (although I'm hesitant to predict her because she just won for a similar role. It might be time to give someone else a chance.)
It's unlikely for a myriad of reasons, but I'd love to see Melanie Laurent make it in for Inglorious Basterds. Hers is the best actressing at the edges I've seen this year.
I think it'll ultimately come down to the five following women: Mo'Nique, Cotillard, Kendrick, Farmiga, and Moore.
How is Laurent a supporting player in Basterds? Doesn't she have as much screen time as anyone else? She and Pitt and Waltz all seem like leads to me... No one has a majority of screen time in the film, but they've all got beefy chunks of it, in that Marge Gunderson / Hannibal Lecter way...
NicksFlickPicks, I suppose I'm more liberal in my ideas of what constitutes a supporting performance, but with Basterds being such an ensemble film, I have difficulty labeling anyone as lead.
Michelle Pfeiffer is overdue as well (3 nominations) not including some other great performances in Batman Returns and A Thousand Acres. She could possibly get nominated for Cheri. I think Sigourney or Michelle should receive an Oscar over Julianne Moore.
I don't think there are any leads in Inglorious Basterds. And I don't see how Pitt is more of a lead than Bruhl (who, frankly, has more to do with the thematic concerns of the film, as trite as they are), if you believe that there are leads.
Nick, do you feel Benico del Toro is a lead in Traffic? I think that might clarify things, for me.
I think Julianne could only squeak by if people find MoNique too crude to vote for. The young girl in Precious has a better chance of winning, but MoNique's actual personality may ruin it for her.
@Arkaan: I absolutely think Del Toro is a lead in Traffic.
@Mike: I am totally sympathetic to thinking of Brühl as a lead, though I hadn't thought of it.
@Everyone: I keep vowing not to drag convo's down this road, over and over. Sorry for continuing to beat this drum. I just feel like the "Supporting" designation too often tilts to scene-propelling, storyline-propelling performances by famous actors who aren't quite as famous and/or don't have quite as big a part as other people in their movies. Which really jinxes a lot of genuine character actors from ever having a prayer of getting noticed. And I'll harp one more time on my "Phone Call to Mom" rule: if I got Mélanie Laurent's part in Basterds, I would call my mom and say, "I got the lead in the movie-theater / 'Jewish revenge' plot in Inglourious Basterds!", not "I got a supporting part in Inglourious Basterds!" Plus, I can't think of anyone Laurent is "supporting" except the larger directorial vision, but that's like calling Gainsbourg and Dafoe "supporting" because they're both (I gather) so obligated to carry out a strongly signed directorial vision that completely encases and exceeds their acting work.
Its not surprising people are surprised Monique can deliver a dramatic performance, but you also have to realize that, like so many other Black actresses, good roles are few and far between for them. She spent so many years reduced to buffoonery like "The Parkers" to pay the bills and get her foot in the door. Given the right role I was not surprised Monique could deliver. I thought I saw some promise in her in "Domino", so when I heard she was cast in "Precious" I had no doubt she would bring it. But don't be surprised if the Academy snubs her. They are famous for that. Look at Paul Giamatti for "Sideways", Eric Roberts in "Star 80", and Kathy Bates in "Dolores Claibourne". J. Moore and especially M. Pfeiffer have been both been robbed in the past and I'm one of those who believes they may wind up receiving Honorary Oscars for the Academy's past negligence. How Pfeiffer was not nominated for What Lies Beneath" (if Kidman can get a nod for "The Others"), "White Oleander", "Batman Returns" (Heath Ledger won for playing the Joker...), and "Age of Innocence" is beyond me.
This doesn't have much to do with this, but why is it now official that Saoirse Ronan is going lead for the Lovely Bones? Who announced this?
Nick, that's interesting.
For me, the type of work being done changes that. What you're saying is that Laurent has the lead in her storyline. But the film has more than one storyline - it has the Basterds, the British dude, Waltz's detection and her own revenge story. Since the film has multiple story strands and really, none predominates over the other three, I'm fine labelling Laurent as supporting. Who's Fassbender supporting in the film? Not Laurent. Nor Pitt. Nor Waltz. Not Krueger. Would you call him a lead, then?
And aren't most people labeling Pitt supporting as well (I would), anyway? I don't see how your "less famous" argument works here. If they're calling Pitt lead, then yeah, Waltz and Laurent should be as well. But I think everyone's supporting.
So, for that reason, del Toro is supporting in Traffic. Kelly MacDonald is supporting in Gosford Park (even if there's even a stronger argument for her being lead, imo).
I don't get your analogy, either.
anon 11:38 -- i heard from the studio on this so it is official. Ronan is lead (as she should be if they're at all faithful to the book)
Another way of saying it. If you're the lead of a storyline and there's only one predominant story line, than you're a lead. If there's two storylines and you're the lead in one of them, then you're still a lead. If there's three storylines.... then I'll likely slot you in supporting.
@Arkaan: So, all the women in The Hours are supporting? Are you cool with Travolta as lead in Pulp Fiction while Jackson and Willis are somehow "supporting"? I wish the Supporting races were saved more for the Tim Roths, the Amanda Plummer, the Eric Stoltzes, the Christopher Walkens, the Harvey Keitels: really compressed character work by actors who have no delusions about their characters pushing huge portions of the film forward, as Travolta's, Jackson's, and Willis's do.
But whatever: it's obviously subjective, and the whole community on this site has gone 'round and 'round about this ad infinitum. I'm not going to able to "prove" this stuff, as are none of us. I think Laurent "leads" the movie as fully and about as often as McDormand does Fargo, and is comparably central to the "heart" of who the story is for, and what it's finally about. She's in a ton of the movie. Her trauma kicks it off, and her scheme/fate is pretty much the climax. Smells like a lead. (By contrast, Fassbender has less screen time than any of those other actors, right?, and his "storyline" arrives fairly late and ends memorably early.)
Actual ensemble films like Gosford Park strike me as few and far between.
I personally consider all the IB actors 'Supporting'. The consensus that Laurent is a lead will have no bearing on the studio's (inevitable) decision to push for a Supporting Actress nomination for her. The role isn't so large that it just reeks of category fraud (i.e. Blanchett in 'Notes', Hawke in 'Training Day', Foxx in 'Collateral' or Affleck in 'Jesse James')
For those who enjoy Rosamund Pike - watch her in "The Libertine". She's freaky good in that film, although her biggest (and best) scene comes near the end. The film itself is very underrated.
Nick - also bear in mind that Kelly MacDonald's character is the central character of Gosford Park and the closest thing that film has to a "point-of-view" character.
yeah but point of view characters aren't always the leads. Or don't feel like leads at any rate.
I mean I guess the lead lead of sophie's choice is Stingo but it sure feels like Sophie & Nathan, right?
But i agree with slayton here. If it's not egregious (like the four sorry examples mentioned) it's hard to get riled up about it one way or another. there are gray areas. It's just unfortunate that the academy's tendencies are such that people think things are gray now when they actually are black and white (i.e. cate blanchett in notes)
All three ladies from The Hours are leads - I guess the structure as a discrete tryptich helps. But more importantly to me, they're all the same. If you push one lead, you push all lead. Ditto Pulp Fiction.
MacDonald is also the closest thing Gosford Park has to a character arc. It's not only point of view, but we tend to discover things along with her.
errr. i did not mean to imply that stingo wasn't a lead. sophie's choice has three leads.
but does pulp fiction really? i can see two leads. but i remember bruce willis being much less crucial to it all than travolta/jackson.
maybe i'm remembering it wrong.
I wish that performances in foreign films or unheralded films get to somehow be in the radar of the voters, but ultimately we are back to the studio system that pushes what and who to campaign for.
I just saw "Tetro" last night and I thought Maribel Verdu should be a contender. It is one of those performances that is so even and subtle that you probably won't notice because they depict the ordinariness of the character's life so perfectly. In this regard, let me honor these fine and mostly non-American actresses in films (lead or supporting) that will surely be snubbed:
(1) Maribel Verdu - Tetro
(2) Edie Martin - Bright Star
(3) Delphine Moreau - Seraphine
(4) Arta Dobroshi - Lorna's Silence
(5) Gina McKee - In The Loop
(6) Edith Scob - Summer Hours
(7) Maya Rudolph - Away We Go
(8) Melanie Lynskey - Away We Go
(9) Maria Heiskanen - Everlasting Moments
10) Jeanne Moreau - One Day You'll Understand
To be sure, there are more egregious "category fraud" examples, and I agree that Basterds is a tricky enough case that it's not worth feeling definitive about, but I think it's worth airing these logics out every once in a while so that our views of how the movies are actually propelled and constructed isn't totally defined by the studio's inevitable pragmatism as to how it will campaign for awards. (I understand that Macdonald is as close to a lead as anyone is in GP, though the storytelling is nonetheless so dispersed across the cast that the "everyone is supporting" argument has unusual traction, even to my stingy tastes; and I agree that Sophie's Choice absolutely has three leads, though I can only assume that in the modern era of mercenary Oscar campaigning, MacNicol/Stingo's status as the wispy onlooker would guarantee him a Supporting campaign.)
Julianne´s best performances:
1. The Hours
2. Boogie Nights
3. Far from Heaven
4. Short Cuts
5. The End of the Affair
I haven´t seen "A Single Man" but only because Firth got buzz, she should get a nod. for this? The best performance should win and not an fine actress with movie-history. I would love to see her win an oscar but Pfeiffer, Weaver and Collette are also in that category for me.
My predictions so far:
1. Judi Dench (Nine)
2. Mo'Nique (Precious)
3. Patricia Clarkson (Whatever Works)
4. Mélanie Laurent (Basterds)
5. Vera Farmiga (Up In the Air)
Rachel Weisz (The Lovely Bones), Kathy Bates (Cheri), Sigourney Weaver (Avatar), Julianne Moore (A Single Man), Penelope Cruz (Nine), Marion Cotillard (Nine & PB), Emily Blunt (Sunshine Cleaning)
Speaking about "point of view characters", I've noticed something.
For example, in Annie Hall, Woody Allen's character is telling the story, but it's all about Annie Hall.
In Devil Wears Prada, a lot revolves around Miranda (maybe due to Streep's performance, but still), but the film is seen from Anne Hathaway's character perspective.
The same could be said for Kate Winslet in The Reader.
These are strong characters that carry the story. Are they leads? Yeah, but they're not the only leads in their respective movies IMO.
Still, I have a question How is Naomi Watts lead for 21 Grams and Benicio del Toro is supporting? There were three leads in that movie. Is it some gender issue? Like there's got to be one lead female and one male lead, and 'cause the last one was Sean Penn, del Toro was supporting?
My predictions so far:
Marion Cotillard - Nine
Anna Kendrick - Up In The Air
Helen Mirren - The Last Station
Mo'Nique - Precious
Julianne Moore - A Single Man
Helen Mirren in Last Station is supporting?
I loved Julianne Moore in "Far From Heaven." She should have won for that.
Damn you Nicky Kidman and your fake nose!
Julianne is amazing.
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