MOTION PICTURE DRAMA
Avatar The Hurt Locker Inglourious Basterds Precious: Based on the Novel Push By Sapphire Up in the Air
- I nearly called this category in my predictions which is very hard to do. That's not bragging but bewilderment. There are so many ways the Globe might go each year so getting 4/5 is a sweet surprise. Especially since I really like all of these movies. Yay.
ACTRESS IN A DRAMA
Emily Blunt, The Young Victoria Sandra Bullock, The Blind Side Helen Mirren, The Last Station Carey Mulligan, An Education Gabourey Sidibe, Precious
- The sudden rush of support for Blunt (by both the BFCA and the HFPA) who, as far as I can recall, never received strong consensus reviews for a movie that has very slowly made its way to release is an oddity. I scored 4/5 predictions here... missing Blunt obviously. Usually that type of picture would require critical support, unless the star is as Oscar / red carpet regular as a Blanchett. But awards season is like that. It's full of inexplicable sudden memes. Like deciding it's Bullock's time. Why everyone is ignoring Abbie Cornish is the oddest considering how much she's doing for Bright Star and how well received the movie was critically speaking.
ACTOR IN A DRAMA
Jeff Bridges, Crazy Heart George Clooney Up in the Air Colin Firth A Single Man Morgan Freeman Invictus Tobey Maguire Brothers
- I didn't actually expect to be correct when I called Tobey for a nomination but there it is. Whaddya know? 5/5 predictions
MOTION PICTURE, COMEDY OR MUSICAL
(500) Days of Summer The Hangover It's Complicated Julie & Julia Nine
- Missed only The Hangover thinking they'd go for A Serious Man instead.
ACTRESS IN A COMEDY OR MUSICAL
Sandra Bullock, The Proposal Marion Cotillard Nine Julia Roberts Duplicity Meryl Streep It's Complicated Meryl Streep Julie & Julia
- Julia is as surprised as you are. A touch more delighted than you are probably. She loves her life. I messed up here going for Deschanel and Pfeiffer which was both sort of possible if not for both at once and far fetched. Aren't you super curious as to who came in sixth though? Especially given Julia's spot. Coulda been anyone I guess.
Matt Damon, The Informant Daniel Day-Lewis, Nine Robert Downey Jr Sherlock Holmes Joseph Gordon-Levitt, (500) Days of Summer Michael Stuhlbarg, A Serious Man
- Only 4/5 predicted here. I'm still surprised that Stuhlbarg made it... particularly because A Serious Man did not score in Screenplay or Motion Picture. Very happy about Gordon-Levitt! And super excited that I have no idea who will win. (I don't think Day-Lewis is an obvious slam dunk in case you're wondering)
ANIMATED FILM
Cloudy With a Chance of Meatballs (Columbia) Coraline (Focus) Fantastic Mr Fox (20th Century Fox) The Princess and the Frog (Disney) Up (Pixar)
FOREIGN FILM
Baaria (Italy) Broken Embraces (Spain) The Maid (Chile) A Prophet (France) The White Ribbon (Germany)
- Scored only 4/5 with animation (thought Ponyo might show up) but i completely forgot to make my call in foreign film. I'm happy for The Maid and still confused that Chile didn't use it as their Oscar submission. Not that it'd be an Oscar darling.
SUPPORTING ACTRESS
Penelope Cruz, Nine Vera Farmiga, Up in the Air Anna Kendrick Up in the Air Mo'Nique Precious Julianne Moore, A Single Man
- Is this your Oscar lineup? Or will the BFCA's refusal to put Marion Cotillard in lead foresee AMPAS's feelings about her? If so one of these ladies is out. But which? I missed only Farmiga doubting she was a big enough star for the HFPA and thinking they might want to be populist and throw Mariah Carey in.
SUPPORTING ACTOR
Matt Damon, Invictus Woody Harrelson, The Messenger Christopher Plummer, The Last Station Stanley Tucci, The Lovely Bones Christoph Waltz, Inglourious Basterds
- 3/5 predicted here. I thought they had ruled that Harrelson was a lead actor. I guess the publicists talked them out of that decision. I'm glad to see that Alec Baldwin's buzz is fading for It's Complicated because I think it would be tacky to have the host of the Oscars as a nominee.
DIRECTOR
Kathryn Bigelow, The Hurt Locker James Cameron, Avatar Clint Eastwood, Invictus Jason Reitman, Up in the Air Quentin Tarantino, Inglourious Basterds
- A month or two ago we were looking at quite possibly the most diverse lineup of directors ever to compete for the golden boy. But the BFCA and the Globes have both decided they'd like to keep Oscar thinking about the older white men that they always think of. So no Scherfig, no Campion and no Daniels on either list. Thank god Bigelow is still in play. Otherwise it'd be the same old, same old. I scored 4/5 on predictions missing Cameron for Rob Marshall.
SCREENPLAY
District 9 The Hurt Locker Inglourious Basterds It's Complicated Up in the Air
- Whoa. Terrible predictive power here, correctly forseeing only the Tarantino and the Up in the Air movie. This category is pretty surprising actually. No Precious? The HFPA voters really didn't go for An Education did they?
ORIGINAL SCORE MOTION PICTURE
Michael Giacchino, Up Marvin Hamlisch, The Informant! James Horner Avatar Abel Korzeniowski, A Single Man Karen O, Carter Burwell, Where the Wild Things Are
- 3/5 predicted here... but quite a good category don't you think?
ORIGINAL SONG MOTION PICTURE
“CINEMA ITALIANO” Nine “I WANT TO COME HOME” Everybody's Fine “I WILL SEE YOU” — Avatar “THE WEARY KIND" -Crazy Heart “WINTER” Brothers
- I am so grossed out that people like that "Cinema Italiano" song. Maybe I'm too much of a purist for Nine. But it has such good songs and they chucked two of the best and added... this? Ewwww. 2/5 predicted only. Oops. Don't you think it's weird that the Globes try so hard to nominated stars even in the song category (like Paul McCartney and U2 here). It's not like they have musical performances on the show to sell the broadcast with.
complete list including television nominations is here (so happy for GLEE)
Posts
128 comments:
Julia Roberts for Duplicity!!! Wow!
Best Picture (Drama)
Avatar
The Hurt Locker
Inglourious Basterds
Precious
Up in the Air
Double Meryl Streep nomination! Love her. Go for 3rd Oscar!
Best Picture (Comedy/Musical)
(500) Days Of Summer
The Hangover
It’s Complicated
Julie & JUlia
Nine
Best Director
Kathryn Bigelow - The Hurt Locker
James Cameron - Avatar
Clint Eastwood - Invictus
Jason Reitman - Up In The Air
Quentin Tarantino - Inglourious Basterds
Meryl's head has to be transformed into a golden globe!!
Gleeeeeee,Mad Men, Dexter. Two for Merryl it's complicated
Glee has FOUR nominations!!!!! GO GLEE!
-BEST TV SERIES COMEDY
-BEST ACTRESS COMEDY SERIES
-BEST ACTOR COMEDY SERIES
-BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS MINISERIES/SERIES/TV MOVIE
Emily Blunt becomes this year's Bjork/Tilda Swinton/Maggie Gyllenhaal: the fifth Best Actress in a Drama that has no shot of getting a nomination because the eventual Best Actress in a Comedy will get in.
Way to go on calling that Best Picture drama line-up!
Best Actor (Drama)
Jeff Bridges - Crazy Heart
George Clooney - Up In The Air
Colin Firth - A Single Man
Morgan Freeman - Invictus
Tobey Maguire - Brothers
I didn't see any lovely bones.
Nathaniel, bravo for Best Actor, Drama! You did pretty good everywhere.
YAY SANDRA BULLOCK!!!!! 2 NOMS ALSO!!! You Go Sandy :)
Best Actress (Drama)
Emily Blunt - The Young Victoria
Sandra Bullock - The Blind Side
Helen Mirren - The Last Station
Carey Mulligan - An Education
Gabourey Sidibe - Precious
Why we don't know anything about supporting?
Best Actor (Comedy/Musical)
Matt Damon - The Informant
Daniel Day-Lewis - Nine
Robert Downey Jr. - Sherlock Holmes
Joseph Gordon Levitt - (500) Days Of Summer
Michael Stuhlbarg - A Serious Man
Sandra Bullock and Meryl Streep totally deserve their double noms!! 2 of the most humble well-liked actresses around. I'm beside myself for them!!
why is Emily Blunt in the mix? and how is Sandra Bullock in the Proposal better than Michelle Pfeiffer in Cheri?
Blunt instead of Swinton....
Best Actress (Comedy/Musical)
Sandra Bullock - The Proposal
Marion Cotillard - Nine
Julia Roberts - Duplicity
Meryl Streep - It’s Complicated
Meryl Streep - Julie & Julia
Supporting Actor
Damon
Harrelson
Plummer
Tucci
Waltz
*I'm not sure on the Damon nod. Molina is clearly missing in this list.
Supporting Actress
Cruz
Farmiga
Kendrick
Monique
Moore
*This looks like the list.
Best Actor in a Supporting Role
Matt Damon - Invictus
Woody Harrelson - The Messenger
Christopher Plummer - The Last Station
Stanley Tucci - The Lovely Bones
Christoph Waltz - Inglourious Basterds
2 nods for Bullock, Damon and Streep
No Zooey
It's Complicated and District 9 for secreenplay.
Courteney Cox gets het first major award nod for Cougar Town
No Lovely Bones
No Education besides Mulligan
Cheri might as well been a straight-to-dvd release... no one seems to remember it... its oscar prospects are dead now... I'm gonna have to see the Blind Side to see what all the Bullock Buzz is about!
Actor Drama:
Bridges, Clooney, Firth, Freeman, Maguire.
Actress Drama:
Blunt, Bullock, Mirren, Mulligan, Sidibe
Actor C/M:
Damon, Day Lewis, Downey Jr, Gordon Levitt, Stuhlbarg
Actress C/M:
Bullock, Cotillard, Roberts, Streep, Streep.
Supp. Actor:
Damon, Harrelson, Plummer, Tucci (TLB), Waltz
Supp. Actress:
Cruz, Farmiga, Kendrick, Mo'Nique, Moore.
Foreign:
Baaria (Italy), Broken Embraces (Spain), The Maid (Chile), A Prophet (France), The White Ribbon (Germany)
Best Actress in a Supporting Role
Penelope Cruz - Nine
Vera Farminga - Up In The Air
Anna Kendrick - Up In The Air
Julianne Moore - A Single Man
Monique - Precious
Robert Downey Jr for Sherlock !?!
Has any one see that coming?
Or double Bullock nomination?
Or double Damon nomination?
Or am I started to see double?
No Lovely Bones; no Bright Star (sigh!)
I'm dissapointed with the very lazy Julia Roberts nomination. They could have given it to Zooey Deschanel, Ellen Page, Amy Adams or even Michelle Pfeiffer if they wanted a star fucking good time.
yeah I bet even Jukia Roberts herself was in shock at this nom lol
pasifauna, Nathaniel had predicted Downey Jr
Pasifauna- Tucci's got a Supporting Actor nod for TLB
And I'd predicted Downey Jr. for Actor (Comedy).
http://satyamshot.wordpress.com/2009/12/12/abzees-golden-globe-predictions/
Is anyone bummed that Maguire got in instead of Jeremy Renner?
I don't feel the Roberts nom as lazy... I think the lazy things in that category are Meryl x2 and Bullock and if you include the category fraud to that equation = Michelle Pfeiffer snubbed...
Abbie Cornish was robbed! She deserved a nod for Bright Star. I've got to see what the big deal about Emily Blunt in The Young Victoria is.
That Emily Blunt nomination is so freakin' lazy of them! Maybe they fell asleep and just assumed "hey, it's Emily Blunt! I'm sure she was good, right?" Because she wasn't.
Julia Roberts is my favourite surprise. She's on my best actress '09 shortlist so I'm glad others were paying attention.
Loving the citation for The Informant! in best actor and, even more so, original score.
Really good Best Picture Drama lineup, actually. Glad they didn't go with Invictus despite the Eastwood best director nod.
Harrelson is still alive and kicking. I'm sensing a stolen march on Christoph Waltz here.
Emily Blunt deserves her nomination. I saw "The Young Victoria" on April, and she was very special playing the legendary Queen Victoria. No other contemporary actress would have played the role the way she did.
Is Rob Marshall going to be the Baz Luhrmann of 2009? "Moulin Rouge" was nominated for 8 Oscars, not including Best Director. I find this very unfair.
If the SaBu Blind Side crapfest love wasn't enough, she's also in comedy/musical for another crapfest. I'm surprised she wasn't nominated for All About Steve too! Amy Adams deserved that spot so much more for Julie & Julia. She was also snupped last year for her wonderful performance in Miss Pettigrew Lives for a Day.
Until now I didn't want to believe it, but now I actually fear that Bullock will get nominated for an Oscar for that terrible film and unforgettable performance. Oh well, I guess someone sees something there that I don't. She was much better in A Time to Kill and 28 Days, just to mention two potentially "award films". They just didn't make 150-200 million dollars at the box office...
poor Michelle
that stinks - oh well
Karen O has been nominated for Best Original Score (with Carter Burwell) for Where the Wild Things Are. And that's all the film is nominated for. Now I'm really waiting for when the Academy deems it ineligible for some impossible reason to prevent a film scoring newcomer from winning. I can't let myself be crushed ala There Will Be Blood all over again. I just can't.
My new prediction for this year. Sandra Bullock will be nominated again for the SAG and everyone will think she's a lock. But she'll be omitted from the Oscar list and the public will once again be appalled that AMPAS is out of touch.
No Lee Daniels? Dont get it!
BAD SURPRISES:
Was Tobey Maguire really better than Viggo Mortensen or Jeremy Renner?
Is the script of "It's Complicated" really better than that of "(500) Days of Summer" or "Fantastic Mr Fox"?
YAY for John Lithgow for Dexter!
YAY for Joe Gordon Levitt for (500) Days of Summer.
Thankfully Alfred Molina was unrewarded.
Does anybody know the Animated noms?
Ugh, the non-stop snubbing of Abbie Cornish is really getting to me. Please, SAG, do the right thing.
Those stupid double nods! "Most humble well-liked actresses" my ass! What is this, Homecoming in High School or an acting award?
And I really like Meryl, but these Damon/ Bullock/ Streep double nods are beyond boring!
And I'm with Glenn, I really liked Duplicity and Julia Roberts in it (even if the ending could have benefited from one more twist).
where is all the love for emily blunt in THE YOUNG VICTORIA coming from?
"cinema italiano" nominated instead of "take it all" from NINE? why?
i think the best director list is quite good (minus eastwood) and looks like it could be oscar's shortlist.
Geez no Bright Star? FOUR actors have 2 nominations!!! Matt D, Meryl, Sandra, and Anna Paquin. It's ridiculous.
Well, there was cheering/applause when Justin Timberlake read Sandra Bullock's nominationfor The Blind Side, so a lot of people out there really LOVE it as equal to the amount of people out there that are ANNOYED by it, it seems.
Meryl’s Choice:
a) Offend the makers of It’s Complicated (”in theaters now”) by campaigning for Julie & Julia (her better shot at the award);
b) Campaign for neither/both, split the vote and lose to, um, Julia Roberts—wreaking havoc with her Oscar chances…
Cannot believe Cinema Italiano is nominated for Best Original song. It is the stupidest song I have ever heard.
And no Bad Lieutenant. Not surprising, but I'm still bummed. At least no Lee Daniels for Best Director.
Well that's boring. The only nice surprise was Michael Stuhlbarg being nominated.
Michelle Pfeiffer is so completely forgettable right now lol
I'm glad that Gordon-Levitt got in but the voting does seem kind of lazy. Especially with all the doubling. I was hoping the Globes would surprise with a long memory like they did last year (remember IN BRUGES?) but no.
I'm with Robert; Sandra's globe nod leaves the right amount of time for a backlash! We just need steady acclaim for Mirren and Cornish. Otherwise, Bullock's kind of a default.
Even better, Bullock's backlash is "Precious"'s upswing, so maybe we can have an actual best pic race, with two good nominees.
RIP Michelle's Oscar hopes. It was fun while it lasted.
GO 'Precious'!!!!
I think we've got two good nominees right now. It's looking like a Hurt Locker vs Up in the Air race (with Precious as the spoiler).
Hurt Locker is up right now but I think Up in the Air is a little more the the Academy's taste. Should be good, or at least better than last year.
I loved Duplicity!
3 for Mad Men. Life is good.
That picture of Julia is creepy. It also exemplifies how much she bugs and annoys me.
Glad to see a nod to Damon for "The Informant!" He hasn't a hope for an Oscar nomination, but he deserves one.
No real surprises except Julia ... there were much better choices.
i dont even understand, how many people have actually seen Sherlock Holmes yet?
WTF??? re Julia Roberts. Horrible and confusing movie, throwaway performance. why... Why...WHY?
Yay for Nine, 500 Days of Summer, Sandra Bullock, Jon Hamm, Mad Men.
Disappointed no nomination for Jim Parsons from Big Bang Theory.
I'm not gonna complain with this list.
Not only did I do pretty darn well in my predictions (nailed Best Comedy/Musical actor, got 4/5 in many, many others), but these are great nominees, on the whole.
The Globes always choose good Best Drama nominees, but this year was stellar. ALL great films, some of them not very baity/oscary at all. And the double noms were basically deserved, other than SaBu, but what can you do? She's the flavor of the year.
Even Tobey for Brothers doesn't bother me, cause for all the misjudges melodrama in the film, he was actually very good in it, and it was quite a stretch.
And while It's Complicated for screenplay is rather laughable (I assume, since I haven't actually seen it), District 9 for screenplay is pretty cool.
Maybe we should be looking outside the box - Fantastic Mr. Fox and District 9 - in filling out our adapted screenplay nominee predictions? The only 3 that are set are Education, Precious, and the surefire winner, Up in the Air.
Why is Clint nominated for Best Director?? Invictus didn't even get nominated for Best Picture.
I am so happy for Julia Roberts for Duplicity...I really like the movie,very well acted...she has no chance of winning but I guess the globes wanted to say...okay so your movie didnt do so well financially but dammit Julia you're an Icon and we know that...the same thing they were probably saying when they nominated her for Charlie Wilson's War were she was very weird...
diversity is great, but daniels and scherfig don't deserve nominations. hopefully the oscars will follow suit. campion, on the other hand, and bright star in general, wuz robbed.
as was nic cage, who should have gotten a nomination for his bad lieutenant performance.
@Arlo -- because he's Clint obviously.
@AdamK -- the It['s Complicated screenplay drove me crazy because it's a fun topic and the stars really sell it and it has some great moments but it's just not sharp enough. It could've really been something and the direction and screenplay are the culprits i think.
@Robert -- yeah, i'm pretty sure UP IN THE AIR is taking PIC, SCREENPLAY and maybe even DIR or EDITING on the big night (though either of the platter could easily go to one of the action films)
@Hayden -- while it lasted was not very long at all. ha ha. as one of the craziest pfans in the world, I knew it would be a struggle after seeing the movie but what can you do. I just think that it's sad no one thought of her because it's VERY CLEAR that nominations are often based on stardom rather than performance so why not her, you know?
@Marsha -- i haven't seen any Bullock backlash. who has?
I feel so silly bitching about it, but "Cinema Italiano" is goddamn awful, so WTF?
Is there ANYONE who likes it?
Roberts' nom is my favourite, though I'm not a fan of the performance But I'm even less of a fan of Meryl's Julia Child.
It's absolutely obvious Meryl is winning for Julie&Julia and the double nomination was completely unnecessary. I mean if there's anything certain and completely predictable at the Globes this year it's Streep making a home run with J&J.
Talking about Julia, that picture up there right about sums up Julia Roberts' career “I have a big mouth and I'll scream for attention till you gimme gimme”; she always feels the same in all of her movies, what a boring actress, what a shame, how dare they nominate her for that “film” ??? even the movie itself was rather obnoxious.
Emily Blunt deserves her recognition NOW and I'm falling in love with her nomination, I know she's not getting Oscar nominated, so good job Emily!
All in all I'm against double nominations especially in the same category/ the same movie. There is so much talent out there left out.
I still think Lee Daniels will get an Oscar nom, but at whose expense? Bigelow, Eastwood and Reitman look like shoe-ins. Cameron is also likely.
Tarantino is probably the odd-man out, although this movie is obviously well-liked (I personally think it's his worst film other than the Grindhouse twin).
I think Bigelow is definitely the director favorite for the Oscars.
Especially if Up in the Air and the Hurt Locker remain neck and neck. (If Air and Locker split the GG's and SAG's which they may).
Not to mention the temptation of having a female winner will be too much for them to resist.
@Robert -- I hope you're right but I doubt they're that concerned with no females having won.
@Sawyer -- if only the precursors weren't so forever in Eastwood's camp. I mean, honestly, to a one they're even more obsessed with him than Oscar voters are. I don't know if this is genuine love or love combined with Oscar predictive instincts but it wears me out.
AMPAS does like to have their moments, and they know a female winning Best Director would be a great moment (not that it isn't deserved).
I'm sorta seeing this as akin to Halle Berry in 01. No they didn't care in the past, but once they got the taste of history, they couldn't resist.
But lets talk about what it'll take for a good Best Pic race since GG and SAG are really the last two big ones left. I don't see Hurt Locker taking both as much as I do Up in the Air. I'm hoping they split (though I could see Precious taking the SAG).
I still think Air is your Oscar winner, but a little suspense would be nice.
I'm going to put my money on Bigelow winning an actual Oscar, not Reitman. It's simply to tempting and the film is "masculine" anyway.
do you think they r making up to emily blunt since robbing her of a supporting actress nom in 06.
i thought she was solid in the film like keira knightley last year but not nom worthy.
a sad day for Pfeiffer fans!
Strange the gg loved roberts in 2 throwaway movies like duplicity and cwwwar yet no love for her 04 closer turn!!!
If Abbie Cornish was nominated instead of SaBu this would be a really deserving list of nominees.
Maybe in some delusional fantasy I have, the Globes would have nominated Take It All instead of Cinema Italiano @_@
Julia was awesome in "Duplicity"! I'm glad that she was remembered. Rather her than Zooey Deschanel any day in my book.
They didn't like "An Education" it seems. Poor Alfred Molina. Can't buy himself a nomination anywhere. That brings down Carey Mulligan's chances too with no film or directing nods.
Stick a fork in Abbie Cornish. Emily Blunt's back in the race!
The double nods were a bit outrageous -- Meryl, Sandra, Matt Damon, and Anna Paquin. Nothing against any of them, but I see why I prefer the Oscars way of doing things with no actor double-dipping per category instead of this.
Love that "Inglourious Basterds" scored those big nods! Really hope that Quentin can make the director cut at the Oscars.
Cameron vs. Bigelow all season long? That could be classic.
"District 9" in screenplay! WOW!!!!
Tobey Maguire? Really? Over Jeremy Renner? Didn't Brad Pitt go lead for "IB"? That would have been such a go-to nod for the Globes, and it would have gotten Brangelina there too.
Strong set of nominations this year!
@mrripley - hmm, you mean robbing Emily Blunt of a Globe nomination back in 2006 for "The Devil Wears Prada" or?
She was nominated then, at the Globes, for supporting, for Devil ;)
Here's the thing. I love Blunt, and the work she did in The Young Victoria was good, and the Globe nod won't have bothered me if, well, I personal believe its the nod that's keeping Cornish out.
@Styx -- It does seem like overkill. I mean, do you think SANDRA is not going to show up if she only has one nomination? It seems silly because they thrive on having big stars there and they cut out 4 or 5 opportunities to have even more stars there ... and deserving ones too!
@mrripley -- i doubt that's whats going on with Blunt. 2006 is way too long for them to be sorry about passing her over. i doubt anyone even remembers that besides awards obsessives. Although I have no counter theory ;)
I'll ask this then the 5th spot mirren,cotillard or blunt? if bullock,streep,mulligan and sidibe r locks.
But Blunt did get a nom for "Devil" from HFPA, right?
My countertheory is she worked a recent party real good.
I am so grossed out that people like that "Cinema Italiano" song.
It's a fun scene that stands out in a mostly darkly lit film. It's easy to remember the song because it's so far removed from the rest of the film. That's why it's being nominated (and probably winning at the Oscars, too).
I'm just excited to predict something that far in advance. My ponies don't normally make it to the starting line, let alone place or win.
There was no need for Meryl to receive two nods.. she will win certainly for Julie & Julia. And why Bullock for The Proposal? Incredible, and so sad for Michelle Pfeiffer, who was far more deserving. I think critics think she's over. But she is great, and she was fabolous... She was in need of being recognized this year! Hope she will find other great roles.
Very happy for Julia Roberts and the sublime Julianne Moore. Can't wait to see Marion Cotillard in Nine.
Where is Tilda Swinton?
so are mariah carey's chances dashed? if she was going to get noticed, the populist globes seemed like the place to start...
so happy for gordon-levitt! and thankful that they remembered a performance from the summer!
also, i'm really happy for the original score nom for a single man.
i'm happy that sandra is getting some recognition, but abbie... i'm not mourning as much for swinton, because they were never going to give her a chance anyway. but cornish seemed like a such a possibility...
mr ripley -- i really don't think Blunt has a shot at Oscar. At all. I think this is kind of a fluke thing. Nobody is talking about that performance. Nobody has ever talked abotu that performance. I have no idea what's going on ;)
Plus, she's no Helen Mirren to Oscar types. I'd say Cotillard has a way better shot as the possible spoiler.
unless SAG throws us for a real loop i'd be very surprised if the nominees weren't BULLOCK, CAREY, MIRREN, SIDIBE and STREEP
Bryan -- yeah. if it was going to happen it was going to happen here (Carey) and it probably didn't come that close to happening here. I was just taking a prediction risk based on their previous love of pop stars.
I think it is cotillard not mirren who gets in just a hunch.
On the Emily Blunt theory, she won a Golden Globe for a TV movie in 2006 (Gideon's Daughter, Bill Nighy won for that as well), so why would they want to make it up to her? She already won a Globe. Maybe they just really liked the performance in The Young Victoria (I haven't seen it, but it's possible). We'll see what happens. Also, if Renner should have taken anyone's place, it's Morgan Freeman (Invictus is a very bland film in my opinion, except for a few of the earlier scenes). I haven't seen Brothers, but every review I've read singles out Tobey Maguire, so I'm going to see it in the next few days.
By the way, I just purchased Inglorious Basterds, and I'm really glad it got into Picture-Drama. I also love the District 9 nomination, as well as Woody Harrelson, but I really think A Serious Man should have gotten more love (although I loved Michael Stuhlbarg's nomination) and unlike last year, Drama seems to be a lot stronger than Comedy/Musical. I've yet to see Avatar (I will at the end of the week hopefully) but every other film on that list is amazing, while the ones in comedy, out of the three I saw I was only impressed with (500) Days of Summer (even though I had some problems with it). You probably have a more informed opinion than I do, Nat.
I've been thinking all day about abbie cornish. It´s bad and good for her. Why good? In the next decade, she might be again in oscar race. Whith this snubed of 2009 it´s a "good reason" for her.
"Emily Blunt deserves her nomination. I saw "The Young Victoria" on April, and she was very special playing the legendary Queen Victoria. No other contemporary actress would have played the role the way she did."
I disagree. Plenty of actresses would have been just as dull in that movie because it was so flatly directed. Besides, just because no one else would have played the role the way Blunt did, doesn't make it good. Nobody could have played "Nomi Malone" in Showgirls the way Elizabeth Berkeley did, either!
I've seen The Young Victoria and while it didn't knock my socks off I thoroughly enjoyed it. Blunt is excellent as always, and Rupert Friend is delightful. If you don't like costumed romances about royal dynasties, this is not the film for you.
I personally wouldn't have picked Blunt for a Best Actress nomination, but then again I'm not a member of HFPA.
I can't get to terms with the Sandra Bullock double. I put up with a lot, but this takes the cherry.
Oh, and I've seen The Young Victoria. If Emily Blunt deserves an acting nom for that performance then I myself have as chance of winning an Oscar. If I decide to start acting, that is ;-)
So far, It's Complicated and Nine are getting panned. They need better reviews, fast. My picks:
Best Drama: Precious (Up in the Air is a comedy!)
Best Comedy/Musical: 500 Days... (Nine is out unless things improve)
Best Actor: Freeman for Drama, Stulhbarg for Comedy (DDL is out unless Nine gets better)
Best Actress: Mulligan for Drama, Streep for Comedy (she'll win for J&J)
Director: Reitman
Screenplay: Inglourious Basterds
Supporting: Waltz and Mo'nique
Score: Where the Wild Things Are
Song: Cinema Italiano (why not?)
Animated: Up (where is Ponyo?)
Foreign: White Ribbon
I don't care about TV noms.
I'm soooo happy Julia Roberts made it in! If Meryl splits and the Julia die-hards come out of the woodwork, that would such an exciting night! But it won't happen...
I'm sorta sad that Bullock is in Comedy at the expense of Maya Rudolph. I loved Rudolph in that and really hoped she had a shot at that nom.
I think its weird that the Globes gave a Best Actress Drama to Emily Blunt. Where did that come from??? I'm surprised that Abbie didn't get that slot since the performances are fairly similar (ON PAPER).
Also, side note, is this our first genuinely good batch of Iraq movies? The Hurt Locker, The Messenger, Brothers, etc.
I've seen many negative opinions on Sandra Bullock's double, but in fact nobody says anything about her actual performances.
Is it really that bad in "The Blind Side"? Or is it just "I'd rather see Abbie Cornish or Tilda Swinton nominated"?
Well, I'd rather see Abbie Cornish AND Tilda Swinton nominated, but not necessarily instead of Bullock.
What about Meryl-must-get-her-third attitude of critics' organizations? I kind of get why, but as far as I'm concerned it deserves Oscar as much as "Cinema Italiano" and it seems to me like people have been somehow tricked into believing it's actually great.
@Howler - I assume you haven't seen The Proposal and The Blind Side or you wouldn't ask the question.
This is about the time of year that I start getting jaded. So many of the groups seem to be in lock-step with each other, nominating the same things, over and over. Did they only see 10 movies this year?
And even when they do a few things different, they pick even worse choices. The best actor in "Duplicity" was Clive Owen - he almost made you believe that Julia Roberts was entrancing, but then the camera lingered on her and the spell was broken. If they saw that movie, why not nominate Owen instead of Damon? Or supporting for Giamatti and Wilkinson?
I guess for lists that help me see the best movies of the year, I'll have to wait for the "personal favorites" lists. I did think that the Globes would be a bit more adventurous and ... foreign.
I think Blunt is one of those actresses the HFPA just really, really likes. Like ScarJo circa 2003-2005. And I don't really blame them. I love her too.
Whoever suggested that she'd just charmed their pants off at a party was probably right. I bet that girl kills at parties.
Oh, and is it just me, or does it look like Bullock will win best dramatic actress? These are her 3rd and 4th noms... I think they're gonna for it. It'll be her and Streep for the gold.
They clearly didn't love An Education, and I don't quite see them going for Sidibe. Whereas they're clearly mad for Bullock. I think it's happening.
happy for Meryl Streep, on her way to Oscar #3 hopefully and deservedly. i just can't take Sandra Bullock seriously, in anything, not quite sure why.
Musical/Comedy Actor - I say RDJ takes it
Drama Actress - Bullock could take it... but I'm not sure
Do you think my doppleganger still has a chance? Or is this the line-up at the Oscars but instead of Cruz, Cotillard?
Can anyone explain to me why Kathryn Bigelow is on everyone's lists? What really makes for a good directing job?
As should be obvious, I don't know too much when it comes to the directing category. It seems to me, however, that this is more of a recognition that "Here's a great war movie and *gasp* it was made by a woman. Let reward her."
I'm not saying that Bigelow doesn't deserve it-- I loved the film-- but just wanted some outside perspective.
What really makes for a good directing job?
A good movie = a good director. Simple as that.
Beyond that, how a director wins critics' prizes and award nominations is by making one of a couple dozen films in a given year that resonate with the people who hand out these honors. It doesn't hurt if the director is also liked/respected/admired.
Bigelow is on everyone's list because a) she is a Hollywood director, b) she is a talented director, c) her film was better than many others (not all) released this year, and d) "it's her time."
re: Cruz, Cotillard
I think it's entirely possible that both could make it. Cotillard could squeeze her way back into supporting, but there's no saying who she'd squeeze out. Possibly Cruz, but it could just as easily be, say, Julianne Moore. No one seems to really LOVE the performance; it seems like more of a filler choice. And if they avoid nominating her, they won't have to feel bad about her losing again.
Just sayin'.
I do think it's a 6-woman race: Cotillard, Cruz, Farmiga, Kendrick, Mo'Nique, Moore.
I'm glad Jane Lynch got recognized for Glee, but I was hoping she would get the nod for supporting in Julie and Julia as well.
I think Bullock really does amazing work in the Blind Side, she really does elevate the film from Movie-Of-The-Week status just by her presence. And I thought she deserved a nod for Crash a few years ago, so I'll be happy to see her get an Oscar nod.
I've got my heart set on Emily Blunt winning
anon -- the things i look for in terms of direction are the overall identity of a movie (does the movie know what it is? is it tightly focused on being the best at that?) a certain consistency in the movie (do the actors all feel like they're in the same movie?) and I admit I also look for ambition. I don't think ambition = greatness but an ambitious movie with flaws is a lot easier to take for me than a generic movie that's very competently made.
" Nobody could have played "Nomi Malone" in Showgirls the way Elizabeth Berkeley did, either!" LOL @Glenn. True that.
I really do not understand the love for Chéri. It was such an underwhelming film and Pfifer wasn't that good. Stop the fanboyism!
I am so glad Streep got two and that Joseph Gordon-Levitt got in as well. Fantastic!
It's probably hoping for too much, but I hope this is the year that Dexter finally takes Mad Men...also the John Lithgow nomination was right on point...incredible performance, so hard to fight between him and Michael Emerson.
No Bryan Cranston or Aaron Paul? What the hell is that all about? But there's plenty of room for Simon Baker and Jeremy Piven, isn't it? Whatever Globes.
Nathaniel, I see you've changed your adapted screenplay predictions to include In the Loop. That film, having played Video on Demand simultaneously with it's theatrical release, is ineligible.
So is Antichrist. Summer Hours. Afterschool. Julia (I think. Magnolia said it did VOD, but I can't find it anywhere). And others that could sneak in for nods.
I'm sorry but I don't get all this negative comments on Emily Blunt's nomination.
I honestly believe she's flawless in that movie.
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