I always like to imagine that Oscar voters aren't slaves to the whims of Globe, SAG and BFCA voters but they generally prove me wrong. Still, even if it goes down as expected I imagine 10 women are sharing the bulk of all votes. That 5th slot and maybe even that 4th and 5th are a touch unstable if you ask me. I believe that precious Mo'Nique and the Up in the Air girls are the only three contenders here that are truly locked and loaded.
But "Cruz!" you say. "She's been nominated for everything." Yes, yes, good point. Except... will Marion Cotillard really stay out of her perfectly toussled hair in the Nine balloting showdown?
Revised Oscar Pages: Picture, Director Actress, Actor, Supporting Actress and Supporting Actor and Prediction Index
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Well That would be a dream to get both Cotillard and Laurent nominated, if this surprise will happen I think only one of them will be nominated sadly :(
Damn those are my predictions for supporting actress and I thought I was being original. But it makes sense cause Penelope and Diane Kruger got in for SAG since Marion and Melanie weren't eligible even though the latter two are more praised for their roles. I hope it happens but since I would love this lineup, it probably won't.
I'm beginning to think you're right, Nathaniel. You make a good case for that line-up, for switching out Cruz and Kruger for their more-praised co-stars. I just wish there was room for more/Moore. It's a strong year for the category and it makes me sad that Farmiga is hogging one of the locked spots. She was good... but not that good!
I agree that it's down to those 8 in Supporting Actor - but think that McKay and Plummer are more vulnerable than Damon and Tucci. 5th spot will be between the former two. At least it's one of the more exciting line-ups we've seen in this usually quite boring category - with great actors and performances vying for attention.
Oh and HAPPY CHRISTMAAAAS!
That lineup looks like a dream to me. To get Laurent and Cotillard...it would be a dream come true!!! And your points are really sensible.
Sadly, I'm often disappointed by the Supporting Actress nominees when I'm hoping for someone else to sneak in there. A classic example of that was my hope for Catherine O'Hara a couple years ago.
Well, there's no way that UP IN THE AIR and NINE can both have two nominees, right? I mean, if Marion and Penelope both get in, Vera's probably out even if it means someone like Julianne or Melanie are in. I really can't see anyone outside of that 7 making it in.
I'm still hoping that Farmiga and Kendrick cancel each other out, in which case (using Nat's top 10) we would have Mo'Nique, Cotillard, Laurent, Cruz and Morton/Moore.
Fat chance.
Nat, Cruz was actually not nominated for the BFCA award. And Samantha Morton was. So it's totally conceivable that Cruz could be left off.
I actually think the real surprise will be Gyllenhaal. They switched her campaign to supporting, and I think she may find a place. With Nine and Basterds both splitting their votes between two ladies, I think there will be a spot for someone in neither. Crazy Heart is well-loved, and Gyllenhaal is due.
I have this theory that, when Academy members are voting, they pick the first performance alphabetically if there are two performances for the same performer. (See DiCaprio for 'Blood Diamond' over 'The Departed', Winslet for 'The Reader' over 'Revolutionary Road') So I think that Streep will get nominated for 'It's Complicated' and Tucci will get nominated for 'Julie and Julia'.
I'm only half joking.
Cruz really hasn't been nominated for everything. I think Cotillard has more notices than her, and in some cases beats her to the supporting actress slot. I think with Moore's snub, Cotillard is in, but I'm not sure between Laurent and Cruz.
Off-topic but I wanted to say how much I enjoy your blog. It's a real cinema treat and you can quote me on that. hehe. Keep up the good work in the new year!
As for best supporting actresses I agree with you on the ladies of Up in the Air. They're golden bound.
I am not sure if I am the only one who prefers Kruger's performance to Laurent. I also don't think Cruz's performance is oscar-worthy and Cotillard's much better. Perhaps the AMPAS members sees the film and actually vote Cotillard as a supporting and not nominate Cruz as a default nominee (Cruz of all people, although she's very good in her spanish films).
Speaking of Inglourious Basterds I am really happy that Waltz is getting the many attention. I wish they'd have snug Fassbender in their campaign somewhere though.
I really do think Cotillard is in. The BFCA, the first and most follower-inclined of all groups, put her in supporting and snubbed Cruz in the process. The globes didn't, because they always err toward lead, especially with comedy/musical roles (since they have more spots to fill), and SAG didn't, because they can't. But with all the time to mull it over, I really think oscar will follow BFCA's lead.
I think the 5th spot will be a total shocker. My bet's on Gyllenhaal. But Moore could also sneak back in.
i agree with vera farmiga not being good enough. i mean, what DID she do in the movie? Not much.
-billy
"i agree with vera farmiga not being good enough. i mean, what DID she do in the movie?"
She gave the best performance of the year. Christoph Waltz, eat your heart out.*
*haven't seen Crazy Heart or A Single Man
I really dig the font!
I would be thrilled by a Laurent nomination. However, the lead campaign will likely result in category confusion, and I'm sure she'll split some of the precious votes with Kruger (Although I thought Laurent was much stronger).
Fingers crossed!
Yeah, Vera Farmiga = awesome.
I would love to have Marion nominated :) of course I would X_X.
Anyway as I see it, I think the line up would be Monique,Kendrick, Farmiga, Cotillard, and Moore. I don't see Laurent getting in even if she gives a better performance than Moore. Moore, in my opinion, still has that, "Oh my God she hasn't won an Oscar yet, shame on us!" vibe going for her.
Plus, HELLO SHE'S JULIANNE MOORE!!!
I'm really hoping Abbie Cornish pulls a Laura Linney on nomination morning and push aside Sandra or Helen. I think Bright Star is still in talks for a screenplay nod right?
I still think Stanley Tucci will get the nod for Julie and Julia :) If Rebecca is right, he'll get it for J&J and not TLB
Yay, you agree with me about Cotillard. I haven't seen Nine, but if she's as much of a stand-out as people say she is, I'm sure the Academy will do what it can to get her a nomination. Even if it means pushing Cruz off the ballot.
I for one am glad that the silly hype for a Mariah Carey nomination is dead. I never understood where it came from: she had like... 2 1/2 scenes in the movie? And yeah, she's "deglammed" / not wearing any make-up. Whoopty-doo.
As far as I'm concerned, Carey was basically cast for her biracial ethnicity: the scene where Precious ponders over Mrs. Weiss' race wouldn't be quite as amusing if the role was still Helen Mirren's.
Why isn't Natalie Portman getting a mention? I'd definitely say she's in the top 15, and though I'd be surprised if she received a nomination, she's gotten more precursor attention that Dench, Sarandon, Carey, Weaver, Thompson, Pike, and Cotillard (in Public Enemies anyway)..
Nathaniel, it's MortensEn, not MortensOn
I think NOBODY would complain if Sam Rockwell gets nominated instead of Morgan Freeman.
What if Betty White for The Proposal gets in? Just saying. :P
Do you think Nine's bad reviews can kick it out of the Oscar Top 10 or is it simply too weak a year to worry about that?
First of all, I need to acknowledge that I live in LA and that one of my bff's works for an nameless moviesite that has been linked on TFE (and has linked TFE too) so between seeing certain films, not wanting to see certain films (a HUGE factor) and that "inside" info, Helen Mirren is out. The people that have seen the film says it stinks and the other 90 percent aren't interested (sorry Mr. Plummer).
Abbie will take it because the people who've seen that movie LOVE IT!!!!! And matt damon (...maybe Alfred Molina)
ps basterds is very, very, very loved out here.
ps merry x mas
and Lucky, YES!!!!!
I must be the only one who didn't see anything special in Laurent... hers would be a total waste of a nomination IMO, Kruger was much much better in IB
Leo
i think it is moore who gets in.
sag won't line up for 5 for 5 in each category i think their 5 actors and actresses are locked it will be the supoorting categories where things shock and supp actor seems to be it for me i think moore gets in for supp actress and plummer is out for mckay.
What if Betty White for The Proposal gets in? Just saying. :P
No, I think her chances died when she didn't get a SAG nomination. Sometimes they honor their Lifetime Achievement winner with a nomination in the same year that they honor that person (James Garner, Cloris Leachman), so if she couldn't score there, her chances are dead now. Plus, I never thought she had much of a chance anyways because she's primarily known as a television actress, and The Proposal was a summer rom-com.
As for supporting actress, I agree that right now Mo'Nique plus the two UitA ladies are pretty much in much to Harvey's chagrin.
I think Cotillard will probably take Cruz's spot, since I agree with DJ that Cotillard actually showed up in more places, they were smaller critics groups, but still other than SAG and the Globes where she was still nominated albeit in the wrong category, she's certainly been on the radar. I think voters will do a reverse Winslet which certainly paved the way for Cruz to win last year, but will end up costing her the nomination this year.
The last spot is between everyone else in my opinion, and I could make a case for anyone of them getting in. I hope it's not Cruz because I don't want to see two double nominations in this category at least not with a film that has so many problems like Nine when the IB women should be represented somewhere.
I would be okay with Moore, but knowing that she has no chance to win and might not ever would then remind me of those great actresses from the 80s that will probably always be Oscarless (Close, Weaver, Turner, Pfeiffer) than I would be upset the whole night.
Somehow I am beginning to think Vera Farmiga will get snubbed this year. The way I see it she might be the Cameron Diaz situation with Being John Malkovich. Kendrick will be the Catherine Kenner (the more critically acclaimed) and Farmiga was always in the mix but then come nomination time Farmiga gets snubbed and Kendrick gets in ala Kenner getting in and Diaz out.
I'm still smashing Cotillard in lead just so I can make room for Laurent and Kruger in Supporting Actress with Mo'Nique. Since I didn't like Up in the Air (boo! hiss!), that leaves room for Sigourney Weaver (loved her in Avatar) and Catherine Keener (another subtle supporting performance in Where the Wild Things Are). I'm almost tempted to bump Keener for "Fluorescent Beige" or "Tell me about the abuse" in Precious, but there's just not enough there in either part to do it. Poor Judi: she doesn't even make my line-up and I loved her to pieces in Nine. Perfect comic foil (keyword: foil, as in devoid of actual character; a concept rather than a character; not much to it but great comic timing) to DDL.
I'd replace Laurent and Cotillard with Kruger and Cruz. Still, I'd rather Cruz get the fifth best actress slot for Broken Embraces over Mirren or Blunt.
Am I wrong for saying I can see a Farmiga snub in favor of BOTH Nine ladies?
I don't get the Anna Kendrick love at all...her performance was totally mediocre in a film that really didn't wow me at all.
"Up in the Air" and "The Hurt Locker" are two films that I just didn't get apparently...
Yipee I get to see Nine right about now :) and I find it surprising that at my movie theater Up in the Air is sold out and so is The Road :o and of course Sherlock Holmes and Avatar are sold out til like 10 x_x (ET)
I don't see Cotillard or Laurent being nominated in supporting. Happened that situation before? And no one but two? Can't see it happen. If they were that beloved at least one of the two shoud have been nominated by SAG (remember even Joan Allen and Jennifer Connelly with the wrong category placements made the nominees list of SAG in best Actress) but they were replaced by Helen Mirren and Sandra Bullock, the supposed weak links of that category. The fact that Cotillard and Laurent are the lead female characters of the film doesn't mean that the Academy members love her performances more than other supporting performances of their films, in this case Penélope Cruz and Diane Kruger, both can be perfectly nominated in supporting with or without the competition of Cotillard and Kruger, and in the case of Kruger she also plays an actress, an that's a plus for the nomination. But, of course, the last prove for Cotillard and Laurent will be the Baftas, if they enter in the top 15 list of best actress instead of supporting we can say that without doubt they are dead at Oscars because that can mean that they have more support in lead than in supporting (and almost everybody that votes for the Baftas votes for the Oscars.)
What if both of the "Basterds" ladies get in over the "Nine" ladies? That would be kind of crazy, since no one really knew how the Academy would take to "IG", and "Nine" is much more up their ally. I'm not ballsy enough to predict it (yet), but it's something to think about. I don't think that the top 3 will have a problem (Mo'Nique, Kendrick, & Farmiga), but Julianne Moore seems really vulnerable, and I've had a bad feeling about "Nine" for a long time now (which really sucks, b/c I wanted that film to be a great one, especially with all of that talent involved in it).
The awful Nine reviews are rolling in. Not only is Cotillard called a stand-out by almost everyone, but tons of critics go as far as saying that she's the "only" emotional value the film has.
It's odd that no one's talking about Judi Dench anymore. She is Judi freakin' Dench after all. It seems like all the "Nine" talk either centers around Cruz or Cotillard. I wasn't all that impressed with Vera Farmiga either, and I loved Anna Kendrick. Not sure about Julianne anymore. In the Kruger vs. Laurent debate, I preferred Laurent easily and would rather see her nominated. But what about some of the others? Sigourney Weaver would be a great nominee, and so would Paula Patton. Kinda sad that they seem to have no shot in this field. I'd love to see at least one surprise in this category. Not at the expense of Mo'Nique (no chance of that) or Anna Kendrick, but something. I'd actually want to see Mariah nominated just to fuck with people's heads. But there has to be someone though. Maggie Gyllenhaal's interesting. She could Tomei herself right to her first nomination.
Just saw Precious today and even though I have problems with the movie, I think Mo'nique is simply stunning and I'm surprised no one talked about her for the win here. I also think Sidibe is equally amazing. I hope she will win the Oscar, maybe sneaking past Meryl and Mulligan.
I LOVE that "Tomei" was just used as a verb. To Tomei something. Thank you, Tyson.
Three of those ladies would be on my own ballot. (Haven't seen Nine, Kendrick is WAY overpraised). If only...
I think Cotillard has better support for an Oscar nomination than even Cruz:
1. Well anon@ 6:16, Kate Winslet was nominated and won as a supporting actress around the entire season, only Satellites and Bafta nominated her as lead. So I can see easily more support for Cotillard and have the same situation
2. Like Hayden said, she received the BEST reviews, even haters of the film said she was the saving grace: Emothional, empathic and best singer of all the women.
3. Raves for "Public Enemies". 4. She has Harvey Weinstein, Michael Mann, DDL, Johnny Depp, Cate Blanchett, Kate Winslet, Leo DiCaprio as conections.
5. She starred the third grossing french language film in USA and one of the most succesful DVD european films in all history. That means something.
6. If Marion and Diane Kruger are nominated, we have a gossip link: Guillaume Canet. Both are stars in Europe.
I think the Oscars would be:
Lead Actor:
Bridges, Clooney, Firth, Freeman, Renner
Lead Actress: Blunt,
Bullock, Mulligan, Sidibe, Streep.
Supporting actor:
Damon, Harrelson, McKay, Tucci, Waltz
Supporting actress:
Cotillard, Farmiga, Kendrick, Kruger, Mo'Nique
I think the two actresses involved in the category confusion (Laurent and Cotillard) are the most vulnerable. Precisely because it takes "A Winslet" to overcome it. That is, a big and overdue name. And last year, it wasn't sure that even Winslet could do it. None of the four ladies Laurent-Kruger/Cotillard-Cruz are as big as Winslet and none of them is considered due, specially the Nine ladies, both recent winners.
Laurent and Cotillard would need either tons and tons of love to make it, or that their pictures would be nominated for everyhing so their names would be ticked alongside everything else. It seems that that won't be the case of Nine and I doubt it will happen with Basterds. But if one of the movies is to be nominated for everything I can only see it happening with IB. So, Laurent has a slighter chance than Cotillard, imo.
But a line-up with Mo´nique, Kendrick, Farmiga, Laurent and Kruger would only make Mo'nique's win more predictable.
Maybe another factor AMPAS might take into account is the "too many foreign recent acting winners". But, as long as that one ruins my whole point :) I won't take it.
Happy Holidays to everyone.
Oscar 2007: Best Supporting Actress=> both Jennifer Hudson (Dreamgirls) and Cate Blanchett (Notes on a Scandal) were nominated in the category despite they were both the colead (at best...) in their movies. Hudson, as everybody would remember, won...
So if it happened that in a year we had two fraud categories, I wondered why we couldn't have two actresses nominated in the right category, despite their campaign?
mirko
Thank you, Alex. I do what I can.
And I don't think that Anna Kendrick is overpraised at all. She hasn't been given enough credit in my book, but she's in the unfortunate position of having the attention split between her co-star (Farmiga) and almost obliterated by a strong frontrunner (Mo'Nique). And I say all of this adoring Mo'Nique and what she did in "Precious."
I'm thinking supporting actress could be crazier than people think. Remember, Morton has gotten in twice with minimal precursor support and with Woody's buzz, people WILL see the Messenger. I think she's in. But personally, I don't think Farmiga is a lock yet. Could well get in, but remember, the preferential voting does matter and how many #1s do you think she's getting over her costar? I doubt very many. My guess:
Monique-Precious
Anna Kendrick-Up in the Air
Samantha Morton-The Messenger
Melanie Laurent-Inglourious Basterds
One of Cruz/Cotillard/Farmiga... any of them really.
I also think that Nine bombing with critics and looking now to be bombing at the box office really hurts its chances. Oscar voters are nothing if not sheep but this is really their type of film. But if the critics saying it sucks AND the public saying we don't care? Might be too much even with 10. Could still make it but I'm thinking about something with some love like Crazy Heart or 500 Days of Summer could grab that spot...
Here's hoping that Christian McKay pulls a Michael Shannon this year and gets nominated. Matt Damon could go the way of Cameron Diaz and get nominated for everything except Oscar.
I would LOVE LOVE LOVE if Cottilard and Laurent made the category.
Nathaniel, check your Supp Actor chart for some grave typos. The characters of the actors have female names.
Anyway, compared to your list:
Actor: Take out Freeman put in DDL
Actress: Perfect, unfortunately because of Bullock. I wish Cornish was there.
Supp Actor: Perfect, but I wish Mackie was there.
Supp Actress: Mo'Nique, Farmiga, Kendrick, Moore, Kruger. Haven't seen Nine yet but Diane Kruger's performance and SAG nomination got me excited!
Supporting Actress is such a full field and an awesome category this year! Just reading everyone's comments makes me realise this even more acutely...
From Precious:
Mo'Nique
Carey
Patton
From Up in the Air:
Kendrick
Farmiga
From Basterds:
Laurent
Kruger
From Nine:
Cotillard (who was also superb in her other film, Public Enemies)
Cruz
Dench
And you have Moore on fine fine form and with the chance of a career-capping 5th nomination.
And one of our finest younger actress who's not yet been recognised: Gyllenhaal.
And a brilliant Brit beloved by the Academy: Morton.
Am I forgetting anyone?
---
Also, Anonymous 6.16pm makes a really great point: that if Laurent and/or Cotillard had enough support they would've Connelly'd/Allen'd their way past Bullock and/or Mirren onto SAG's Best Actress list in spite of category confusion. Hmm... Exciting race!...
That's a really interesting category:
LOCKS:
1. Mo'Nique - the eventual winner
2. Anna Kendrick
So leave us:
Sure Things:
3. Vera Farmiga: But if she missed the Bafta nod, she's in troubles. Another Angelina Jolie case...
And finally the last two spots:
1. Marion Cotillard: OK she missed the SAG but she got the BFCA and she's the sole nominee for critics groups (Even runner up in St. Louis)
2. Penelope Cruz: I'm still iffy of her (The SAG nod was for DiCaprio and still Wahlberg was nominated, even when Nicholson was the departed guys fave in this category)
3. Samantha Morton: the Brit fave for the Oscars?
4. Diane Kruger: IB love and stardom. Plus: anon@ 1:44 has a good point: gossip with Cotillard
5. Julianne Moore: she's in weak situation right now
6. Maggie Gyllenhaal: Overdue for a nomination
Unfortunally for Laurent she's a newcomer and her buzz is overshadowed by Waltz and Kruger.
So the NSFC, BAFTA and OFCS will tell us.
I don't know why many people said Mirren and Plummer are locks for nomination because:
-no growing buzz
-mixed reviews for the film
-Any publicity
-Lack for critics mentions
...I did forget someone: Portman with - what I keep hearing - a career-best performance in Brothers.
Ah! Such a great field of players in this category this year!
while i understand the move towards under representing julianne moore's chances in supp. actress, i think it is an undermining her odds to get nominated. break down the competition: monique and kendrick are solid locks.
i still put farmiga as a sure thing, but splitting the votes is particularly dangerous this year. there are several films bringing two very viable options to the table: up in the air, nine (cruz and cotillard, not including dench), inglorious basterds (laurent and kruger), precious (mostly just monique, but throwin in carey's name).
this is the greatest reason why moore remains a sure thing. she is very good and represents the veteran contingency amongst newcomers, being the sole representative from her film.
i put farmiga, monique, kendrick and moore as in, and the last spot i say goes to cotillard. she has two great performances of the year and i think academy will see through the studio's attempt to push her to lead to open up supporting for more of their women from nine. if this strategy backfires and cotillard gets shafted from supporting and lead, i see cruz taking her space in this category.
i think it is very unlikely anyone beyond these six will get nominated, but i put laurent and kruger in as loveable longshots.
ps. i am personally thrilled kruger has gotten the kudos she deserves because she was my favorite performance of the film, moreso that laurent and waltz.
Lock:
monique
kendrick
Put Your Money on:
Moore
Farmiga
Highly likely:
Cotillard (nine)
cruz
Suprise?
laurent
kruger
morton???
Oh Tyson! The Tomei use is awesome. I'm going to use it very often with your permission...
Actress in a Supporting Role is one of my favourite categories but not so much this year.
I totally agree with Rich Aunt Pennybags about the Moore nom: I don't really need to see my adored Julianne defeated again
Peggy... i feel the same way. When they nominate Moore again, I really want her to win. Or I want it to be for a killer performance. I liked her in A SINGLE MAN but it's kind of... well, if it hadnt been her i'm not sure people would be nominating it.
That said. Putting her at 5 does move her up the hierarchy and if she has to go down in history as Oscarless it seems fitting that she should be as respected as Thelma Ritter and Deborah Kerr who have six nominations and losses each.
Another thing to realize, if they nominate Moore, is the momentum that it could bring. If she can follow up that role with something killer next year (big if, but if anyone can...), she'll have received six nominations without a win, and the recent loss could still sting. She has to have worked with half of the Academy by now, so the woman has connections.
Nathaniel,
I feel the same way with Moore I still need to see A Single Man but I feel if the next time she gets nominated I want it to be winable for her. That whole ceremony when Julianne lost twice (not so much for THE HOURS but I ached when she lost for FAR FROM HEAVEN).
It's the same I way I feel about Meryl Streep, I wished they would stop nominating her all the time unless she is a real contender this time around. I almost have the feeling if she wins this time around they might cool down on her.
You guys! This is akin to blasphemy! What are you on about?! Moore's is a wonderful, aching, invested, subtle, beautifully plotted SUPPORTING performance and deserves to be nominated. It's as meaty as Carey or Kruger or Cruz or Dench or Cotillard's roles - and no-one's been questioning their screentime. (On that note, having finally seen Nine, that lead campaign for Cotillard seems like such a big joke. It would be the shortest lead-placed performance that I have seen - Hopkins in Lambs included.)
So what if Moore has no chance of winning this year. To have 5 career nominations is a MUCH bigger deal than 4. It's like going up one league. Moore deserves this.
(And we know those great roles haven't been coming as thick and fast for her, so the Academy should grab this opportunity this year.)
Well I finally saw UITA and I am now officially confused why Anna is #2...Vera outshines her and delivers more of a punch. This is one of those head-scratching moments...A GG nod is understandable because they love young talent but an Oscar nomination with the SAG is bizarre. Give her spot to Diane Kruger, Paula Patton or Melanie Laurent instead.
I'm really surprised that so many films that are "rotten" on rottentomatoes still seem viable for the big six categories:
Baldwin in "It's Complicated," Tucci in "Lovely Bones," and picture, Cruz, Cotillard, and Day-Lewis for "Nine"
The Academy likes what it likes, and they aren't critics. They nominated "The Reader" for best picture with a 58 score on Metacritic, so they aren't against nominating rotten stinkers when it suits them. They have to nominate something, they only watch so many flims, and all bets are off this year with the opened up field.
anon 9:27 that's true to a degree. But part of the problem is that they are very influenced by the precursors and the precursors are ever more influenced by trying to predict the oscars rather than "influence" them so you end up with this circular f***over loop wherein all sorts of movies that are not well received getting nominations from the very same people who probably don't even love them all that much (if the consensus spills over at all)
it's all kinds of messed up.
there are lots of ways to fix this but no one takes it seriously enough.
you're so brave!
Can i say in 1 scene Mulligan stole brothers from Portman who was so weak why was she cast in that film and she was so good in closer too.
You're exactly right, Nathaniel. It's like the stock market; speculators aren't looking at what's worth the most, but looking at what they think people will think is worth the most at some point in the future, which is why valuations can end up w/ little relation to current reality.
So we're basically left wondering if the "Nine" bubble will pop before or after the Oscars nom morning.
Marion Cotillard is going to get the nomination for lead I believe.
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