Which do you find most surprising? Really at least a handful of these people should have surfaced by now if they were going to surface at all, don't you think? But perhaps it's too early to worry. A Globe, BFCA and SAG nomination can be quite a match for lighting Oscar fire. Stay tuned.
Key red = scheduled big deals * gray = last year's announcement was on this date.
- Sun 12/12 New York Film Critics Online
- Sun 12/12 Los Angeles Film Critics Association
- Mon 12/13 New York Film Critics Circle
- Mon 12/13 BFCA Nominations
- Tues 12/14: GOLDEN GLOBE Nominations
- Thurs 12/16: Dallas / Ft Worth Critics
- Thurs 12/16: Chicago Film Critics Association
- Thurs 12/16: Detroit Film Critics Society
- Thurs 12/16: SAG Nominations
- Sat 12/18: Utah Film Critics
- Fri 12/27: Online Film Critics Society
- Mon 1/3: National Society of Film Critics
- Tues 1/4: Producers Guild & Writers Guild Feature Nominations
- Mon 1/10: Director's Guild Nominations (Feature Films)
- Sat 1/15: BFCA Awards Ceremony
- Sun 1/16: Golden Globe Awards Ceremony
- Sun 1/23: Cesar Nominations (France)
- Tues 1/25 OSCAR NOMINATIONS
- Sun 1/30: SAG Awards Ceremony
Posts
24 comments:
The one that surprises me most is Helena Bonham Carter. She's the current front-runner to win Supporting Actress (even though I don't think she'll win in the end). I'd think that the Satellites would throw her nod, especially given the mentions for both Firth and Rush.
Also shocked that Barbara Hershey was ignored by both the Indie Spirits and Satellites.
As far as dates go: not that OFCS is the most important group on your list, but this year our nominees are coming out 12/27, with the actual winners announced 1/3. I'm pretty sure that I won't get in trouble for announcing that.
Tim -- thanks. updated with info.
Julian -- yeah HBC seems like a coaster nom (no offense to Helena who deserves more Oscar attention than she's gotten in the past) but maybe it'll take mainstream nominations for her.
as for Hershey... i just watched it again. I think she's very good in the film, but it's SO focused on Natalie... that i just think that's what everyone takes away.
Are you going to add Matt Damon in the top 10 potential Best Supporting Actor candidates? I guess I'd put him between 6th-10th right now, but I think he's definitely popped up now as a potential nominee.
Just saw Frankie and Alice. Halle Berry should be an easy Globe candidate, but I don't see her getting an Oscar nod for this. Baity as it is, it mostly made me wanna watch The Three Faces of Eve again.
Oh, sorry I also noticed that you didn't list Rosamund Pike's Satellite nomination. I don't think it really makes a difference, but I thought it was interesting that was another award that nominated Pike over costar Richardson.
I find it surprising that Neither gals from THE KIDS ARE ALRIGHT are on this list. Both did great work.
I've been kind of worried about Jacki Weaver. I liked Animal Kingdom a lot when I saw it a couple of months ago, but her performance is what burns brightest in my memory about that movie and I was all but certain she'd be forgotten.
The NBRs don't have the greatest track record in matching up with AMPAS for supporting actress, which is fine. The more left field choices these voting bodies make, the more they justify their existence other than for Oscar prognostication. At any rate, good for Weaver, because she REALLY needed this kind of early citation to remind people. Hopefully this will make more Academy members pop in that Animal Kingdom screener.
Nathaniel, re: best picture...can you conceivably see anything besides The Social Network or The King's Speech winning at this point? If so, what? I'm beginning to think that with a good enough campaign, The Fighter could surprise.
ahh thanks for the dates and info! i'm so excited for sag/golden globe nomination week I really can't wait! it's so close! ahh! so far I think your predictions are spot on for Oscar. (I only care about the actresses race really ;p
Lead
Portman For the Win!
Bening ugh
Lawrence
Manville
Kidman yay post win nom finally!
Supporting
Weaver
Adams For the Win!
Leo
Weist
Carter
I loved Marion Cotillard in Inception, but I doubt she will get a nod.
People aren't betting on Weaver and Manville just because they aren't 'names' and are older but
they are so good in their roles they will get a nom and be the
'foreign' names this year yay Aussie/British peeps!
Not a fan of Made in Dagenham, lots of people telling me to bet on Miranda Richardson for supporting, eh. pass
Sissy Spacek could sneak in if Get Low does good if Robert Duvall mentions her alot ala Jeff Bridges and Maggie Gyllenhaal last year. lol!
I've said before I actually prefer Julianne Moore's character in 'Kids' instead of Bening but eh...
Bening is 52 and giving her an 'overdue' Oscar at this point is pointless because she doesn't even work that frequently, she can have deal with Warren's Oscar and if she needs more maybe her sister in law SHIRLEY MACLAINE will let her hold her's. lol!
Kids' is the only one I've seen so far, going to get 'Winters Bone' soon and check out Lawrence, she's had buzz for that movie FOREVER so I'm excited to see it.
and I don't really see anyone else from "Black Swan' being nominated...it's Natalie's movie..and my favorite of the year CANNOT WAIT to see it.
wish I could say the same for 'The Fighter'...I've been so excited for Amy's role in this hoping she could get the gold...not a fan of Leo, but if HBC wins, I'll live because I love her to.
Now that Anne is hosting, it's clear the academy loves her, didn't she announce the nominations last year? maybe they will give her 2nd nom...:) I know she'll get another one eventually though if not for Love &
I would love to see in a perfect world Diane Lane make it in Secretariat, or Naomi Watts (should be an Oscar winner by now) for Mother and Child or Fair Game and Halle Berry (would love for her to get a 2nd nom)' for Frankie and Alice' but ah well...so crowded this year..also wish one of the ladies from 'For Colored Girls' could get a nom...I have Thandie Newton in my predicts, she's overdue from 'Crash' where she WON the Bafta that year and got no recognition elsewhere. It'll be odd to have no woman of color nominated. Sally Hawkins is also a should have been nommed, but personally not a fan.
I also really liked what I saw from Phylicia Rashad in 'For Colored Girls' and she plays Halle Berry's mom in 'Frankie and Alice' she's Mrs.Cosby and a Tony Winner would love to see her get a Oscar nom someday, keep doin' movies girl!
Has Andrew Garfield (or Mark Ruffalo) been nominated for anything yet? I'm really starting to fear for them both - they were by far my favourite turns in Supporting Actor this year - but especially Garfield.
Surely that delivery of "You better lawyer up, asshole!" deserves an Oscar, not to mention his pitch-perfect portrait of naivety and just navigating that supporting girlfriend/wife role so well. (Bonus points: being just gorgeous and heartbreaking in Never Let Me Go.)
Sorry, but the Santa Barbara Awards of Franco, Bening and Kidman are not for their particular performances, are they? btw, Moore got a Gotham ensemble nod as well (not that that matters a lot)...
i think some people didn't understand: the photos are of people who have NOT been honored yet. If you don't see people in the photo spread they have been recognized somewhere.
cinephile -- oh yes, i'm aware of that. But like with the Gotham "career tribute" for Hilary Swank, we all know that when tributes are held in the year of major oscar campaigns for that person's work it functions as a performance honor in terms of buzz and media attention. which is why i include it.
Given that the role seems just the sort of thing lots of people like to honor in Supporting Actress, and given the respect she's generally held in, I'm surprised we haven't seen Miranda Richardson.
I believe Hailee Steinfeld should be more considered, based on what has been said about her performance recently.
How about Jim Carrey?!!
It's nice to see Barbara Hershey's name included favorably among the shining reviews for Black Swan.... she truly was fantastic and terrifying, and her performance (for me) was one of the big takeaways from the film. (side note: I swear you catch a flash of her face during that club scene!) Do you think with all the warm mentioning she has a chance to break through to Oscar? (I'll cross my fingers.) Or is it all up to the Globes and SAG now?
Jim Carrey would be heaven.
He is best of the year great. (no, not really. I am still voting for DiCaprio)
I always think it's still anyones game even now so i wouldn't worry about garfield,hershey,leo,bonham carter,spacek,franco etc just yet,all we have to go off are reviews and buzz,yes some people are more soldified as genuine contenders with nbr announcement but they got to work the circuit & the majors aren't announcing for 10 days to 2 weeks.cale down!!!!.
I saw Black Swan yesterday and while the three supporting players in the movie are great, they seem to total about 20 lines of dialogue each.
In other words, it's all Natalie all the time. Brilliant performance and great movie, despite the utter pan given by the LA Times today, go figure.
The Oscar Race snuck up on me faster this year than it ever has before. I'm staring at your (wonderful) charts and getting a where-do-I-begin headache at all the new information there is to process.
Oops. Something went wrong. I'll post it again.
Nathaniel, Also FYI,
Nomination Announcement
Critics' Choice 12/13
PGA, WGA 1/4
DGA (feature) 1/10
DGA (documentary feature) 1/12
Awards
Critics' Choice 1/15
GG 1/16
PGA 1/22
(Oscar Nomination Announcement 1/25)
DGA 1/29
SAG 1/30
WGA 2/4
Indie Spirit 2/26
I'm really surprised about Bonham Carter too. Seems like she should have been mentioned by now...
But I also saw Black Swan yesterday, and even though I LOVED Hershey, I feel like you're right - it seems like it'd be really hard for any of them to get a nomination since it's so Portman-centric.
I have to say though, I think my favorite of the supporting ladies was Winona Ryder. Even in her teeny tiny screentime, I thought she was absolutely on fire with so much passion and anger - such a thrill to watch her.
Ahh, these bullshit awards leave me cold. Why do people fawn over them so? Think of all the past great performances that were left out and you get the message. It's all about timing, timing, timing, especially now. That and whoever the critic's groups suddenly decide is darling of the year. This year it's Eisenberg and Portman...with Franco running close behind or even and Firth as the veteran everyone likes. Bale is up there because his not unprecedented weight loss regimen and posterboy routine for committed actors everywhere has finally caught up with them. How long does it take these jokers to notice, anyhow? Just my 2 cents.
amir_uk: Garfield is a nominee in both the Washington DC Critics' awards and the Satellite awards. Timberlake is the one who hasn't shown up at all. Frankly, I thought Garfield was the better of the two by far and he deserves a nomination over Timberlake.
The Supporting categories are really unpredictable this year. For Supporting Actor, I am only confident of Rush and Bale. The other three slots are up for grabs. For supporting actress, I'm not confident with anyone, even Bonham Carter.
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