Friday, February 25, 2005

Final Predictions

It's a bitch this year. I could score as low as 50% I feel like a ton of the races are just teetering on a knife's edge between two or even three candidates. So, I just tossed up my hands. You can read the final predictions at the link above.

Or, you can give up on reality altogether and join me in my fantasy lineup of winners... And the "imaginery -making Nathaniel happy-winners are..." Picture -Sideways * Director -Mike Leigh * Actress -Annette Bening or Imelda Staunton * Actor -(no preference really. not into their nominees... maybe Cheadle?) * Supporting Actor -Clive Owen * Supporting Actress -Virginia Madsen * Screenplay -Eternal Sunshine * Adaptation -Sideways * Costumes, Cinematography, Editing, Art Direction, Sound -The Aviator or Spider-Man 2 * Score -(no preference) * Song -The Chorus or Motorcycle Diaries (no real preference) * Animated Film -The Incredibles * Visual Effects -Spider-Man 2 * Foreign (no preference have only seen one :(

26 comments:

Anonymous said...

Oh how much better your list reads than the anticipated recipients. Although I'm sticking with The Aviator as my fantasy film winner (of the 5 that they've shortlisted).

My head tells me that Annette Bening should win (I've raved about her performance since I saw it several months back), but in my heart I'm actually rooting for Imelda Staunton. Her BAFTA banter suggests she'd give the classiest speech we've heard in a while.

I have serious doubts that ALL FOUR front runners in the acting categories are going to win. I know that happened in 2004 (with the possible exception of Sean Penn who was in with as much of a chance as Bill Murray), but after the distinct absence of shock last year, I'm hopeful that the Academy will shake things up a bit. And if "something's gotta give", then I hope and pray it's the Hilary win.

Meantime, I've also decided to go out on a limb and predict Vera Drake for screenplay. I just don't think ESOTSM is safe, and the last time an "independent auteur" got nominated for the director AND screenplay award, it was Pedro... and he picked up the screenplay gong. So I reckon Leigh is in with a real chance there.

Rob

Anonymous said...

I can't remember a year in wherein so many of the top categories' winners were anyone's guess. I entered a bunch of online Oscar contests, and I was all over the map with my guesses, hoping I might come up aces in one contest.
I definitely think a "spread the wealth" mentality might prevail on Sunday night, with "The Avitator" dominating a lot of the prizes presented earlier in the ceremony. I don't think Foxx or (probably) Freeman will be upset, but the outcomes of the other top races could provide some entertaining moments.
I too have been a stanch Bening supporter, and liken her chances of winning to Jessica Lange's for "Blue Sky": Lange was in a small, little-seen film but, due to a superb performance (possibly mixed with a "she's due for a Best Actress Oscar" mentality upheld by voters) she managed to snag the prize from her younger, chief competitor- Jodie Foster in "Nell." The idea of a Bening win might be wishful thinking, as Swank's character has a lot of traits which appeal to voters, but I'm really hoping Bening can finally come through for yet another Oscar-worthy performance, as she was remarkable in "Being Julia."

Shawn

adam k. said...

I also think Vera Drake is going to win screenplay. It will be reminiscent of the Pedro win. Also, like with Before Sunset, the screenplay is a way to sort of reward everyone due to its collaborative nature. Don't really see Hilary being upset, though... Annette and Imelda are going to cancel each other out.

Cliff said...

I am also hoping for a Bening upset - Swank does not deserve a second Oscar. I like the Jessica Lange reference - the Academy did not want to give Foster a 3rd Oscar, just like they are at pains to give Swank a 2nd one. Staunton may pull an upset but it's been a while since Oscar gave something in a lead acting category to a relative unknown (in Hollywood).
In any event, Oscar voters should be seeing all the movies (probably the reason why Swank won 5 years ago when she won for a great performance). Therefore, the fact that Being Julia is such a 'small movie' does not really hold much weight.
The other category one can loose sleep over is supporting actress - it could go either way and the fact that Natalie Portman wasn't even nominated for an SAG doesn't mean much in the end, if one looks at past history. Personally I think Blanchett (who has been accused by voters of mimicry and they want to only give away one Oscar for that) overacted. I prefer the more subtle performance of Virginia Madsen, who in my opinion was the main reason to see Sideways. Blanchett has been far better (how could she not have been nominated for Veronica Guerrin?!)

Anonymous said...

I can't imagine Million Dollar Baby leaving with just 3 Oscars. I have a feeling it's taking home 4 or 5. There hasn't been a Best Picture taking home less than 4 Oscars since... Rocky... wait a second, another boxing movie that's not really about boxing! Uh oh!

right said...

Your predictions would represent a serious deviation from history. Do you know how long it's been since another movie won more Oscars than the Best Picture winner? Since 1977: Star Wars over Annie Hall.

If Million Dollar Baby will indeed beat The Aviator, I think it will have to win two out of Editing, Screenplay, and Director. I think, however, (and hope) that the Aviator is going to end up winning, Scorsese will win, and Sideways will take the Screenplay award.

Anonymous said...

Actually, Raiders of the Lost Ark got five wins and eventual best picture winner only scored four (in 1981).

Javier said...

Nathaniel, great list but I just don't get this Virginia Madsen hype. My argument is that an actress of the caliber of Cate Blanchett could have played that role so easily. And not only that, but both Cate and Natalie are brilliant in their roles. Is Virginia Madsen brilliant in Sideways? If she is, then I just don't get what's so great other than it's a comeback and we love you're back!

But yeah, the rest of your pics are fine, though I want Xiaoding or Delbonnel to take Cinematography, and John Debney has to win for a mind-blowing score. (Yeah, I love big, epic scores, especially if it's Arabian or Egyptian. Gosh, I love all kinds of music except American).

Oh, and did you know Antonio banderas is replacing Jorge Drexler in Best Song? What a travesty!

adam k. said...

I'm kinda with Javier on Madsen... she was really good and deserves a nom, I think, but it just wasn't all that challenging. I hadn't thought about it this way before, but yeah, Blanchett could easily have played that role. Sure, Madsen was more "right" for it but I don't think it's better than Blanchett... except wait a minute, I haven't seen Blanchett's performance yet... I'm finally seeing the Aviator tomorrow. But from the trailer she seems great, and I think this would be partially a career win, which is actually fine with me. Madsen I think is like the supporting actress equivalent of all those best actress winners who prove themselves in one role and then are never truly spectacular again. She's good here but I think it's more that it's "her big role" that that she's a great actress. And Blanchett is the type who always misses out because she's always good, and I'd be happy to see her win.

adam k. said...

Also, in response to the person who says they haven't given relative unknowns lead acting oscars recently, I offer two names: Adrien Brody, and Hilary Swank.
However it HAS been awhile since they've given a lead oscar to a brit. They seem to like Hollywood based Aussies better.

NATHANIEL R said...

reminder that I reserve the right to change my mind before Oscar night. ;)

I don't think ESotSM is safe at all. BUT I think the overall strength of the other nominees could help it win by splitting the non ES support. Just the same way that the amazing best actress category is actually helping Swank, damnit!

Anonymous said...

Just some thoughts on things been said throughout here.

1. Vera Drake is actually my alternate to Eternal Sunshine in Screenplay. I'm not brave enough to actually place it but I have a hunch... but I am hoping for a Kaufmann win!

2. I'm still backing Aviator/Scorcese/Foxx/Staunton/Freeman/Blanchett

I don't know why, i just am. I feel as if I would be boring even myself if I went with the usual patern (which Nathaniel has deviated from himself).

3. I really would not care who won out of Best Supporting Actress. The only one I have not seen is Linney (well, I'm seeing Hotel Rwanda tonight but I doubt Okenedo will be horrible) and I loved Blanchett and really liked Portman and Madsen. So... yay for me

4. How come it's always Bening and Staunton who will cancel each other out? Cause they're older? I would think that Swank and Bening would cancel each other out due to their whole backstory (some want Bening this time, others want Swank again) leaving a nice little passage for Imelda Staunton...

5. I too want Delbonnel or Xaioding for cinematography. Then The Aviator.

-Glenn

Anonymous said...

This is off topic, but I can't help but notice in your Film Bith Awards. I think you meant Bush to be in the HERO category. At long last we're saved from you gays and your atrocious damage to the word "marriage".

Oh, and for Cruise, you said that he chose a cabbie to help him out "this time".... well, not sure if you paid attention to the movie, but its not the first time Vincent had done this. There's a mentioning of a cabbie with a perfect phsyical and mental health record who up and killed people, then took his own life. Its then mentioned that the cabbie might not've been alone.

Ha! Missin' kind of an important detail there, smart guy.

Anonymous said...

That last post was extremely rude. I almost feel like I have to apologize to Nathaniel for even reading the same site as someone who would post a comment like that. Whoever posted that should be ashamed of themselves, and quite frankly, that post made me ashamed to be an American and quite frankly, to be a human. I know this is off topic as well, but unless that was a joke (pretty sick joke, if it was) I hope that person never reads this wonderful site ever again.

Anonymous said...

Just Remember:Director and Picture have split every odd year since '99, and while that may be no more than a coincidence, it may also be reason to hope that MDB cannot win both. Either Marty will win, or he will be in company with Alfred Hitchcock.
I'm getting the feeling the latter's going to happen.

Anonymous said...

Who let Anita Bryant in this discussion? I thought she was dead.

Anonymous said...

Yeah, can I also back up the person who defended Nat. I don't know about you guys, but I feel privileged to read his gems of wisdom on this site, and that cowardly anonymous rudeness was unacceptable.

Might I humbly suggest that the person originally responsible for it creates their own meaning and values for the word "marriage"? There are no two that are alike, and that's a good thing.

Oh, and in fear of getting chastised for veering WAY off topic (I was irked; forgive me), er... gee, I hope The Aviator takes Art Direction!

Rob

right said...

For the record, Raiders of the Lost Ark won 4 Oscars in '82 (Art/Set Direction, Visual Effects, Editing, and Sound), same as Best Pic winner Chariots of Fire (Picture, Original Screenplay, Score, Costumes).

As for what I hope happens, aside from my previously mentioned Aviator crush, I'm rooting for upsets in the supporting categories by the Closer stars. They're so much better than the competition (with the exception of Madsen) it makes me want to cry.

I love Freeman and Blanchett as much as anyone but these performances... I just don't see it.

NATHANIEL R said...

I think a lot of people are rooting for both of the Closer actors... which is why I keep thinking one of them at least can win. Just can't quite figure out how.

Anonymous said...

I'm crossing my fingers for Bening, but I agree Staunton could wind up on stage due to a Bening/Swank split.
I think the Best Actress prize possibly will come down to how much voters buy into the "Million Dollar Baby" 'buzz' factor. I know most voters will probably see all three performances (unlike the general public, to whom "Baby" has proved to be the only box-office hit), but "Baby's" status as a frontrunner for several top awards-compared to the position Bening and Staunton find themselves in starring in "smaller" films-might help Swank considerably. Hopefully this will be a year wherein the PERFORMANCE decides the outcome, and we'll see a happy Bening (Winslet is probably my second choice) finally capturing Hollywood's top prize.
Obviously, this Best Actress race has grabbed my attention more than any other category; however, I'd like to see Marty and Madsen win, and think a Freeman victory will have at least as much to do with his performance as the "he's due" factor people keep mentioning- although it may not be the most challenging role of his career, Freeman is great in "Baby."

Shawn

Anonymous said...

Well in order to vote in a catagory you have to have seen all 5 nominees so the fact that Vera Drake has grossed $200,000 or whatever to M$B's $60mil shouldn't affect the outcome. It usually does, but it shouldn't.

And I thought Blanchett was fabulous/spectacular/excellent/ILOVEHER in The Aviator so if she wins (which I am hoping she will, slightly before Portman) I will be extremely happy.

One thing we must remember though. Mike Nichols is very good at getting his actors awards, is he not? So... yeah. If either Natalie or Clive win I will not be suprised in the least.

That person up there should vanish plz, you're not wanted thnx!

Oh, and just a happy note for Nat. He'll be happy to know that Australia is on its way to making "Vera Drake" Mike Leight's highest grossing movie of all time. It'll soon beat Topsy Turvy and has a great shot at topping $1million. Specially if it wins an oscar.

That may not sound like a lot but, a) it's more than in the US and b) Figuring in our population and the currency exchange, a $1mil grossing movie here would equate to a $10mil grossing movie in the states.

...man, Australia's awesome. Here is how the movies have grossed in Australia

The Aviator: $3,977,175 ( after 2 weeks at #1)
Ray: 3,282,906 (4 weeks)
Million Dollar Baby: $3,117,989 (3 weeks)
Sideways: $2,921,238 (4 weeks)
Finding Neverland: something... it's already gone from our charts, yay!

-Glenn

John T. said...

This is slightly off-topic, but why no medals for the Best Actress race (or did I miss something)?

Anonymous said...

To the idiot who said Raiders of the Lost Ark only won four Oscars... check your math. You're not counting the Special Achievement Award it won for Sound Effects Editing. Art/Set Direction, Editing, Sound, Visual Effects and Sound Effects Editing.

Anonymous said...

Settle down.

We don't want this to become like Dave Poland's blog. There are some real assholes on THERE!

-Glenn

NATHANIEL R said...

Unfortunately it's NOT true that you have to see all five candidates in order to vote. (It's true only in a few categories --usually ones that have lots of rules and procedures like foreign film) So that does not help the small grossers. However, given their easy access to the nominated films, it's unlikely that Oscar voters don't watch at least a few of the major nominees that they hear so much about.

Any Oscar voter that skipped Bening or Staunton's films were really not paying attention at all and probably are not conscientious about it in any given year. I'm sure there are voters like that as well.

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