Tuesday, January 25, 2005
Dirty Harry Vs. Ray Charles
So does Clint's semi-surprise acting nod make him the main challenger to Jamie Foxx's wide frontrunner margin. Or is that still LEO the 'King of the World'? Curious minds wonder how the larger media will react to this new development.
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Possibly, but with a margin like that, who's counting?
It does seem like something of a three-way race now with Clint, Leo, and Foxx. I actually wouldn't be shocked if Clint managed to win this (consolation for losing director to Marty), but I guess Foxx is still way out front. Whatever. It's hard to care now anymore. The noms are so strange and ridiculous. I think the only category I care about is original screenplay, where Kaufmann must win. It looks now like Eternal Sunshine, Aviator, Hotel Rwanda and Vera Drake could all concievably take the prize... though Incredibles won't win... it's actually a pretty good category. I guess I'd also like anyone but Swank to win best actress, too. I think with the underwhelming response to Sideways and Closer, Blanchett and Freeman are still pretty good to go for their oscar wins.
Ultimately deciding between Clint and Leo is like deciding whether Ellen Burstyn or Laura Linney received second place to Julia Roberts-there's no way around it anymore, Jamie Foxx is going to win this.
Haha. OK, good point. It is a lot like that. (any guesses as to which lady did end up second? we still don't know.)
I feel vindicated about Clint's nod - I picked it way back when Million Dollar Baby started getting precursor attention, and I said he'd win it too... and I still do.
Yeah, I'm nuts.
For my own sanity, I need to believe that Ellen Burstyn was the runner-up. To me, that was one of the top three female performances this decade.
I think Foxx should be nervous. Though I don't know to what extent people will be satisfied for having given Clint the nomination.
Who knows how they think? The Clint nomination really threw things into chaos, though.
Don't be surprised if Clint pulls off an Adrien Brody shocker in Best Actor ... especially if the Academy feels like they're being EXPECTED to give it to Jamie Foxx. Chris Rock saying things like this doesn't help Jamie's cause ...
"I am rooting for Jamie, and if he doesn't win, I'm
going to talk about it on the show," Mr. Rock
promised, a sly grin tiptoeing across his face. And if
Mr. Foxx comes up empty? "I'll take an Oscar from one
of the sound or light people that win and give it to
him," Mr. Rock said. "Jamie Foxx is not going to walk
out of that place without an Oscar."
Sorta like the Robert Wise/Martin Scorsese fiasco.
That's why I'm thinking that Million Dollar Baby
should win the Best Picture award ( not to mention
that it actually IS the best in the group ). Perhaps
they'll split and throw Scorsese his beloved directing
Oscar, so he can (finally) get back to making great
films again!
Historically there is an Oscar trend to reward an
intimate character study the year after a sweeping
epic wins Best Picture.
1959 - Ben Hur
1960 - The Apartment
1962 - Lawrence of Arabia
1963 - Tom Jones
1978 - The Deer Hunter
1979 - Kramer vs. Kramer
1982 - Gandhi
1983 - Terms of Endearment
1987 - The Last Emporer
1988 - Rain Man
1990 - Dances with Wolves
1991 - Silence of the Lambs
1995 - Braveheart
1996 - The English Patient
1997 - Titanic
1998 - Shakespeare in Love
2003 - Return of the King
2004 - ???
So, according to this trend , I'd have to say the
momentum is with Million Dollar Baby ( the bloom's off
Sideways ). Since the 70's, this follow-up character
drama winner has been notable for its acting
performances - winning one or (usually) two acting
Oscars also. Normally that follow-up winner has the
most Acting nominations of that year - Tom Jones had 5
!! ( Another bad sign for Sideways ).Million Dollar
Baby and Aviator each have 3 acting noms. Aviator's
most likely acting win is Cate Blanchett. Million
Dollar Baby should be considered the favorite for
Actress and Supporting Actor wins. And then there's Clint ...
I'm Steve ... guess I should register, huh?!
Mark my words, if anyone isn't leaving the Kodak theater without an Oscar it's Clint Eastwood. The only question is whether it is for Best Picture, Best Director, Best Actor, or some combination of those three. Of the three, the best chance he has is Best Picture because of the formidable threats of Scorsese and Jamie Foxx although there is going to be the inevitable Jamie Foxx backlash (I personally started getting annoyed with him after his Golden Globes speech which I thought--even if no one else did--was the worst speech of the night, even worse than Annette Bening's).
Well... I was just thinking. Jamie Foxx got not one, but TWO nods. What if they decide to give him the Best Supporting Actor award to compensate for awarding Clint Best Actor? It would be a nice opportunity to reward both of them, right?
But anyway, I still think Foxx is a great contender. Simply because I can't imagine (given the relevance of the role and of the movie, and given statements such as Rock's) the African-Americans in the academy voting for any other actor this year. And it's a lot of people united for one commom cause, I think.
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