My own excitement for Darren Aronofsky's freaked-out ballerinas picture Black Swan is all intermingled with my fears that no matter how good it is (assuming that it's good), Oscar voters have notorious trouble embracing the visionaries until they really do something middlebrow (case in point: David Fincher and The Curious Case of Benjamin Button). Black Swan sounds way too weird to be middlebrow... but, then, so did Button come to think of it.
I decided to throw caution to the wind and predict Natalie Portman for Best Actress anyway. Oscar has embraced histrionic ballet stars before (The Turning Point, anyone?) And even if voters are still wary of Aronofsky (how has he not been nominated yet? Argh!) they do recognize his enviable skill with actors, as evidenced by the nominations from Requiem for a Dream and The Wrestler.
In the end, these are the dozen performances I (currently) feel we should most keep an eye on for Oscar play
- Hiam Abbas in Miral (though I could also see this as supporting)
- Annette Bening for Mother and Child or The Kids Are All Right
- Anne Hathaway for Love and Other Drugs
- Nicole Kidman down the Rabbit Hole
- Diane Lane for Secretariat
- Jennifer Lawrence for Winter's Bone
- Lesley Manville has Another Year
- Julianne Moore thinks The Kids Are All Right
- Natalie Portman in Black Swan
- Julia Roberts for Eat Pray Love
- Robin Wright Penn as The Conspirator
I've also posted the Supporting Actress hunches -- which includes Helena Bonham-Carter in The King's Speech -- though in truth I didn't really have any hunches. Ha! That's the way it goes sometimes.I'd love to hear your feelings on these two actress categories. Next week, after I've had time to examine and build spreadsheets, I'll share your communal prediction for Best Actress from the "Actress Psychic" contest. It's always interesting to note what Consensus imagines about something so intangible.
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No mention of Tilda Swinton for "I am Love"? and I will just DIE if the academy nominates Julia Roberts for "Eat, Pray, Love". she looks like she's doing the same thing that she, Tom Hanks, and Denzel Washington do in almost every movie they're in - PLAY A VERSION OF THEMSELVES! Ugh!
I can't put my finger on it, why I think she won't be nominated but from all I've read so far I don't see Hathaway as a contender for Best Actress for Love and Other Drugs. It reads too much of a romantic comedy with Gyllenhaal in its centre.
But I do think that Bening and Kidman are in. And with Kidman changing her publicist last year (finally), there is slight progress, e.g, her turning a redhead again and the gushing that followed ("That's the Nicole we loved, so much better with re").
And yes, if Betty Ann Waters delivers Swank is in, that sort of movie is her forte.
Well, one thing is sure, your best supporting actress predictions totally surprised me. Early consensus in best actress seems pretty strong to me. And you're so right, they really didn't like Jennifer Jason Leigh at all! She was definitely one of my favourites in the 90s. I almost feel the same about Oscar and Gary Oldman. I haven't really ever felt that Robin Wright Penn was overdue, but she also feels like a very convincing "never nominated" candidate in the best actress slot to me right now.
How many times does Nicole Kidman have to fail until people finally start losing the non-sensible faith in her? Ever since her undeserved Oscar win, people predicted her to be nominated every year. Year after year, fail after fail, people still won't stop predicting her.
I really don't think this year's gonna be any different than the past seven years. So what if Cynthia Nixon won a Tony for the same role. Ask Gwyneth Paltrow, who totally surpassed the original in a even jucier Tony winning role. Still, she got snubbed.
As it's meant to be an Oscar bait, Nicole Kidman picked the wrong director. John Cameron Marshall is a critical darling, not an Oscar fave.
Let me tell you, the year when people finally stop predicting Nicole Kidman will be her comeback year.
James T... maybe it's my lack of enthusiasm for Get Low. But I didn't see anything all that special about its three performances. I could see people getting excited about Murray because they always dig his dry wit (see ANON'S comment "playing a version of themselves!"). Duvall is good but the movie has... uh... issues. More on that closer to its release time.
Your Actress nominees: I hunch that three of your nominees will get in and the others will at least get a minor award nomination and be in play.
When will Night Train with Sigourney be done? sigh.
@LARA -- i'm trying not to think about it!
@JAMES T -- i don't see Inception as an acting situation in any category. Even if people love it. Just doesn't seem like the type of movie to generate actorly buzz
@ANON 10:30 -- i totally agree with you in a way (except for the weird bit about Gwyneth Paltrow being better than Mary Louise Parker in Proof. Say...huh???) but i just kept juggling the 5 and finally was like "what the hell?". Do i *expect* Nicole Kidman to be nominated? No. Am I willing to risk predicting it? Yesverymuchthankyou please.
I absolutely agree that JCM is more a critical darling than an Oscar magnet. But i think an important distinction with PROOF (and DOUBT to a lesser extent) is that it the directors didn't really make them very cinematic and that really does cause problems in people thinking these things are "great movies". I have full faith that Rabbit Hole will feel like a movie more than a play given that Mitchell thinks visually.
anyway... I love Nicki Kidman and i do know that eventually the media will turn around. Few people remember this but the media was even unpleasant to Meryl Streep for awhile (late 80s/early 90s... and because she get "uppity" about the disparity in female and male movie star salaries). It's just what happens when you become a household name all over the world. People want to bring you down and they also want to build you back up once they've "humbled" you. it's the way it goes. see just about every A lister since the dawn of time.
If Tom Cruise ever gets his shit together and gives another MAGNOLIA level performance they'll "forgive" him and he'll win an Oscar.
these are the narratives ;)
Zellweger has been listed in two seperate tiers for My Own Love Song. Blanchett, I believe is a lead in Robin Hood, similar to Benjamin Button. Nathaniel, what made you leave out Naomi Watts for the Allen pic??
Lets not forget that at least 2 of the nominees have to be really mediocre!
Anon 10:30 AM - You have a point about predicting someone every year based on the fact that he/she was once successful with the Academy but
1) It's pretty much the best we can do this early
2) The material in this movie seems like Oscar's favorite meal.
And it's not like she FAILS every time. It's ust that her movies were either not good enough or not Oscary enough. She did get a Globe nomination for Birth.
@Nathaniel: Is Spacek leading or suporting in Get Low?
I have a hunch the academy will stick to the big veteran names this year and cut down on hathaway/portman and the like.
What about Kirsten Dunst for "All Good Things"? Supposedly from test screenings, her performance has been highly praised and buzzed for many awards.
Nathaniel, this is the most our predictions have overlapped!
Nathaniel, why couldn't Inception get an acting nomination? Couldn't Ellen Page, JGL, or Marion Cotillard get a nod if they really stand out of Inception like Heath Ledger did with The Dark Knight?
I hope this coming awards season will recognize more people who have not received a lot of awards and nominations previously. I like seeing fresh faces, instead of the same people every year.
Our actress predictions match 4/5. I left out Robin Wright, because I think they're just not that into her.
Love the HBC caption. She was robbed for Wings of the Dove, and deserved nominations for Howards End and Fight Club. I hope she can break through and finally get her 2nd nomination (And perhaps a win...I think I'd die of excitement.)
"When will Night Train with Sigourney be done?"
Who cares? I've lost so much respect for her since she started trashing The Hurt Locker for beating Avatar at the Oscars. What a sore loser!
And before anyone accuses me of hypocrisy, I was pissed at Annie Proulx for doing the same thing to Crash four years ago even when I completely agreed with her. Your pony lost, get over it.
She didn't trash The Hurt Locker. She trashed the Academy for having an agenda. Which it had.
On Kidman - I think most of her "fails" have been from movies that for whatever reason (not her performance) weren't critically acclaimed. Once she's in another movie with good reviews, she's in. Whether it's this one, I dunno, but the "directed play" sort of film often ends up getting most its credit for its actors. And the longer she goes, the more they notice her absence, the more they think they owe her.
On Roberts - This is the sort of movie only Streep is likely to get attention over. Unless it's huge commercially, and it's too big to ignore, I doubt Julia gets anything with this, though "playing oneself" is pretty much inevitable for this kind of film, so I don't begrudge her that. (Ole Marsha may have been nominated once or three times for "playing herself.")
James T, even though her performance wasn't her best, Kidman also got a GG nomination for Cold Mountain, so, technically, she was still in contention that year.
Anon 10:30: "Let me tell you, the year when people finally stop predicting Nicole Kidman will be her comeback year."
That I would like to see. I doubt Kidman will ever get nominated for a project that isn't baity. And, as long as she does baity projects, she will get predicted, as the pope is Catholic.
I think I predicted Renee Zelwigger on my ballot, but I can't remember. I don't even remember if I included Nicole Kidman for what should be an easy nomination based on the source material and director. I just know I screwed up in forgetting Lesley Manville. The Leigh fans in the Academy will not let another Leigh starring lady slip by without a nomination, not after Sally Hawkins was practically sweeping and failed to get nominated.
Rebecca Hall is iffy...especially since she's stuck in the Sam Mendes Winslet Divorce with the rumors...
Other than that, great Actress predics!
I really hope Annette gets the Golden Boy this year! She's sooo overdue... I suppose she would have bigger chances if she competes for "The Kids Are All Right", especially if she's "terrific" in the role (as many people say). Do you think she have good chances for a win this time?
Yeah, I'm starting to second guess writing off Manville too. And, Rebecca Hall ... I had the same thought. She's definitely not courting the favor of the press currently.
"Marsha Mason" is hilarious.
Yeah, I'm starting to second guess writing off Manville too. And, Rebecca Hall ... I had the same thought. She's definitely not courting the favor of the press currently.
"Marsha Mason" is hilarious.
Lara brings up some good points about Kidman.
@ aduletza: That's a nice soundbite, but it doesn't hold up to scrutiny and neither do Weaver's arguments. They're nothing more than tantrums from someone whose film didn't win the big prize.
Do you underestimate Cronenberg bringing A Dangerous Method to screen? He has said he spends very little time in the editing room. Once filming ends in July it may be possible to see the movie by the end of the year. Therefore, Viggo, Michael, Keira and Vincent for acting noms. potential, of course.
Pausner -- i love Cronenberg but in general if something is still filming i always assume NEXT YEAR which isn't failsafe of course but it helps in narrowing down these site unseen things.
I've read the script for Love and Other Drugs, and Hathaway does have a great role... *disease* *funny* *almost overbearing personality*... so this could either be a knockout and lead her to her second Oscar nomination... or I think it may read too romantic comedy -- we'll see.
I've also read the Black Swan script... reeeeally wasn't a fan. I'm sure Aronofsky will be able to save it with his unique visual style, but I don't see Portman getting nominated. But maybe that's also because I think she's one of the most wooden actresses... even that picture makes me cringe.
Totally agree with Bening, Kidman, and Wright Penn. But last decade I think there was only one year where out of the five nominees, one was a newbie. I think you have too many known names in there.
And why is Michelle Williams in tier five?!?!
Good call on West, Bonham-Carter, and Mirren. I can see Hall getting her first nom also, but early word isn't good for her.
I can imagine Elle and Dakota turning into the de Havillands if Elle somehow wins first.
Danielle -- i thought Williams was pretty great in Blue Valentine but the studio stuck it with a Dec 31st release date which is basically just like dumping it. i remember when that happened to Toni Collete in Japanese Story. ugh. nobody cares when movies open on Dec 31st. the conversation is already over.
Hedwig and the Angry Inch was an awesome movie, i don't think kidman chose a wrong director
Nathaniel... so, if Focus Features will promote both Bening and Moore as leads, do you think that only one of them will be in? Moore's performance hasn't convinced you at all? I hoped to find her name at least in the supporting actress predictions...
Anne Hathaway isn't doing the Judy Garland film first? Interesting. Really glad to see Helena Bonham Carter on there. I hope she gets nominated again soon, and this could be the ticket. I'm rooting for Julia Roberts and hope that this can be the start of her big comeback. No Tilda Swinton? Is she speaking Italian in "I Am Love"? Some love for Robin Wright would be nice, and any return to former glories for Nicole Kidman would please me greatly. And like it or not, the Swankster should be in the top five somehow for her baity "Betty Anne Waters" film. Nice predictions.
I think Sam Riley has a more complex role than either Helen Mirren or Adrea Rosenbourgh in Brighton Rock. Simply put, his emotional world is like a Pollock painting. Out of the 2, I see bigger chances for Rosenbourgh.
Overall, reasonable predictions.:)
I want to see Helena Bonham Carter nominated for playing a queen...The Red Queen in Alice in Wonderland!
(I'm half-joking.)
Does no one has any faith in FAIR GAME ? It's supposed to be screened at Cannes. After all the Academy loves a serious actor playing a Real Person... and a Bush Enemy at that !
Tilda Swinton for "I Am Love" has no chances I suppose. I've seen the movie in Rome last month and, though she's very intense and the visuals are stunning, I think the movie is too little, risky and arty to enter in any Oscar race.
Ferdi -- i think if they really promote them both as Best Actress (the right thing to do) they could conceivably both get in if the film gains Best Picture heat (which I think it will).
But my suspicion is that they won't dare and things will get really confusing and one or both of them will be left out in the cloud of dust from the scrambling to find something that works which isn't what it should be (two leads).
Bening has less screentime than Moore but she's also the "top" (figuratively speaking of course) in this relationship and you know the Film Experience Posited Oscar Rule: in same sex couples of sexual or platonic film relationships the top goes "lead" and the bottom goes "supporting" even though they're both lead and even if the bottom is more lead (see also campaigns for: Brokeback Mountain, The Last King of Scotland, Collateral, The Devil Wears Prada, Notes on a Scandal, etcetera...)
Because of this it'll be hard to sell Bening as Supporting even though that's probably what the studios will want given that she's the one with another Lead campaign going on.
Diane my hesitation there was that there was already a film about that very subject recently. But maybe since that didn't gain any Oscar traction they won't remember it at all. You're right that it's REAL PERSON TRUE STORY bait.
Nathaniel, on that topic, did you see Nothing but the Truth? Kate Beckinsale (not to mention Vera Farmiga, Alan Alda, and Matt Dillon) was superb in it and deserved Oscar attention, but unfortunately the studio wen't broke or something.
I keep thinking that either Anne Hathaway OR Natalie Portman will be nominated, not both. I think one will cancel the other out a la Carey Mulligan/Abbie Cornish unless they are both in Best Picture nominees.
I heard about that Blue Valentine release date. Man, the Weinsteins really know how to botch a release! They definitely should be following the Half Nelson blueprint and release it in August. Here's hoping for some last minute changes like they did with Nine, except for the better.
Right now, it feels like Bening (for "Kids"), Hathaway, and Portman are locks in my mind, which is strange as we are so far out. Actually, Portman was my first thought when it came to this category. She gives good crying and good bitch, and I'm sure they'll be a lot of it in this movie. Plus, she's hitting her sweet spot in terms of the window when young actresses are out of adolescence but not yet middle aged when directors can lavish gorgeous closeups on them, muse-style. I hadn't even thought about Robin Wright, but it makes perfect sense. I predicted Kidman on my ballot, but I still feel like we are 2-3 more years out from "Comeback!" territory. She needs to be really likable in a movie again for people to embrace her, and she hasn't really been taht way since Moulin Rouge: scary to think about.
My fear is that there is no Carrie Mulligan/Kiera Knightly bright-young-thing spot here. Wasn't there buzz on Carrie really far out too?
I agree with Jason about Kirsten Dunst in All Good Things. The film itself was good, but her performance is incredible!
^^ I saw the film at a screening a few months ago.
anything that nicole kidman touches nowadays is bound to fail. i wonder if rabbit hole will break this curse.
Matt -- i'm desperate to see that movie and I have no problem believing that Dunst is incredible in it. But it doesn't have distribution yet and who knows what might happen.
Plus Dunst is in kind of the same situation as Kidman. People just hate her far more than she's given them any reason to hate so it'll take something special or some random mood shift for the media to not attempt to torpedo it.
My predictions:
Best Actress:
1. Lesley Manville, Another Year
2. Freida Pinto, Miral (I thought Hiam Abbass is the lead...)
3. Annette Bening, Mother and Child
4. Carey Mulligan, Never Let Me Go
5. Naomi Watts, Fair Game
Alt: Jennifer Connelly, What's Wrong With Virginia?
Surprise: Renee Zellweger, My Own Love Song - I know, the film was critized in France, but she was raved as many. Still she could make it: Sean Penn, Diane Lane, Cate Blanchett, Kate Winslet and Sandra Bullock...
Supporting Actress:
1. Anne Hathaway, Love and Other Drugs - I think she'll go as supporting
2. Hiam Abbass, Miral
3. Helen Mirren, Brighton Rock
4. Saoirse Ronan, The Way Back
5. Barbara Hershey, Black Swan
Alt: Elle Fanning, Somewhere
Surprise: Andrea Risenbourgh, Brighton Rock
Oh man, I forgot Marion Cotillard (For Inception). I really hope she'll good, she's AWFULLY snubbed by her performances in "Public Enemies" and "Nine"
NATHANIEL, I do hope people are given the chance to see All Good Things in theaters. The Weinstein Company truly fucked up the chances this film had to really shine. I hope Andrew Jarecki is able to find a distributor very soon. The film isn't perfect, but definitely worth a watch and will most likely satisfy the majority of people who are fans of mystery/thrillers. I just hope Dunst gets a chance to show the audience what she's capable of, she really does prove she has what it takes.
I also realized they had to cut some of the film because Jeffrey Dean Morgan was apparently in the film, but wasn't in the cut I saw. Don't know the whole story behind that though.
I'm keeping an eye out for future news regarding the film so we'll just have to wait and see.
Honestly, if Swank/Bening both make it in, I think the Bening takes it. The media will not allow it to be anyone other than a Swank vs. Bening fight (again), and I think the media will get behind Bening FINALLY taking this.
Kidman picking John Cameron Mitchell for director (I think) was one of the best choices she made (as well as hiring Abaire to adapt his play).
Anon 10:30 says Mitchell is a critical darling...That's EXACTLY what this movie needs. Didn't we all see that with the Hurt Locker? The early critic wins pushed it over the edge at the Oscars!
I wouldn't be surprised if Anne Hathaway is nominated in the Best Supporting Actress category because of the fierce competition. It would be an easier win for her.
"Love And Other Drugs" was just completed in January of this year, and Fox already rushed two very successful test screenings. The enthusiastic screeners praised the film & Hathaway's wonderful performance. The twitter reviews for these screenings were incredible as well. It is very unusual for early test screenings to occur so soon after a film just completed. So, the 20th Century Fox executives are very confident they have a critically -acclaimed box office winner( and Oscar caliber performance ) in their hands. They are releasing the movie in November 2010 for major Oscar attention. Hathaway's Oscar Buzz is so loud & sensational , I would be surprised she doesn't win a nomination.
An actor's reputation accounts for a lot when nominations ( and wins) are involved. That is why Tom Hanks won back-to back Oscars, and recently Sandra Bullock won an undeserved Academy Award. Hathaway is already well-regarded for her intelligence, professionalism, dilligence, generosity, and likablity.
P.S., Fox has a great marketing machine when it comes to promoting & supporting Oscar nominations. Look at Reese Witherspoon, Russell Crowe, Avatar, etc...
I hear Jennifer Lawrence's raw performance in "Winter's Bone" is on the similar level of Melissa Leo's incredible work in "Frozen River". So, I will be looking out for "Winter's Bone".
Nathaniel,
Do you know what happened to the rumored Streep project ICE AT THE BOTTOM OF THE WORLD? It was announced as in production starring Charlize Theron and rumored co-stars Streep and Jennifer Connelly.
Nat-
Do you know what happened to the Streep vehicle THE ICE AT THE BOTTOM OF THE WORLD. Her bio lists this movie as in production with Streep rumored to co-star with Charlize Theron & Jennifer Connelly?
How long will it take for you to answer the question: is Bening better in The Kids Are Alright or Mother and Child?
One more thing: no foreign contenders?
Sometimes we see a Catalina Moreno or Marion Cotillard or a Penélope Cruz...
Anyone?
I was burnt badly by the Sally Hawkins' snub (I believe I may have just been the first person to predict a nomination for her back in January of that year) and didn't go with Manville in the Psychic contest. I did, however, go with Kidman, Hathaway and Bening (but for Mother & Child) so we're kinda similar.
Weist and Hall seem like the best bets from where I'm sitting, but... well, we're gonna go soon enough who they're gonna have to beat (even if she's not going to get nominated, shame).
cal roth - I assume you will get your answer from the next film bitch awards :p
Lara- There were rumors from the Love and Other Drugs set that the performance by Anne is a career best. She also plays a woman stricken with Parkinson's who Jake falls in love with. So I think it's pretty good shot that she'll definitely be in the discussion. I think Swank is going to be in there. It's such a good story and she'll get to really act her ass off in the role. Naomi Watts as Valerie Plame opposite Sean Penn in a true story where they will get to chew scenery and provide some fireworks. This will be a hot button film when it comes out, believe me. It will be a liberals vs conservatives response.
I think Imelda Staunton is the lead in Mike Leigh's film and usually his actresses do well during award season.
This is a great year, that is hard to predict. Unlike so many other years. This could go down as one of the best year for films in many years. All categories will be tight. Even in the supporting categories.
What about Paltrow in "Love Don’t Let Me Down" ? It seems very "oscar" role, isnt'it ? May be the picture is simply too small.
I would be very happy if she was in contention again ...
Great predix nat but..
Christ!! The Hope Davis is playing
the real life+living person+betrayed wife+ruthless politician(does these sound oscar baity?) Hilary-freaking-Clinton!!
The movie is definatly out this year(UK at least)and if this is not a supporting actress surefire well, what is?
p.s. loved the top an bottom theory
@PJ.From my understanding that film was going to be a cable feature here in the States (like Grey Gardens last year) rendering it ineligible.
but maybe i'm wrong or they've changed their plans.
My prediction => this is the year of Robin Wright, her role is strong and if the movie is good it should be her year... and I want to see the good Robert Redford again.
Jennifer Lawrence could be the newcomer of the year, her performance in Winter´s Bone is beautiful. I want Annette Bening to be nominated, but I don´t know if it will be as easy as many people believe. More likely I see the nomination for Diane Lane, I believe Secretariat is the kind of movie will appeal to the Academy.
As for Julia Roberts in EPL... it's clear that if the movie is so successful as the book then she will be nominated. But if Larry Crowne is released this year, I wouldn´t know. I have read Larry Crowne screenplay and Julia´s character is very strong, she plays an alcoholic woman with marital problems, in a film with a very "up in the air" tone.
Hathaway for supporting and hopefully win.... and Kidman???? I don´t know if Rabbit Hole will be liked by the Academy. And please no more Hilary Swank, please....
Hilary Swank and Diane Lane will be there, seem the kind of performances/films that Academy members adore and always nominate (like North Country, Erin Brockovich, Changeling, The blind side, etc, etc,).
Also the releases dates of those films are pretty good.
I don't have much faith in Annette Bening, because her two films will be released very soon and will be forgotted by the end of the year.
So, I guess the nominees will be:
01. Robin Wright Penn, The conspirator
02. Diane Lane, Secretariat
03. Hilary Swank, Betty Ann Waters
04. Lesley Manville, Another year
05. Jennifer Lawrence, Winter's bone
06. Helen Mirren, Loven Ranch
07. Renee Zellweger, My own love song
08. Nicole Kidman, Rabbit hole
09. Freida Pinto, Miral
10. Naomi Watts, Fair game
In Supporting I have:
01. Helena Bonham Carter, The king's speech
02. Juliette Lewis, Betty Ann Waters
03. Kristin Scott Thomas, Nowhere boy (great release date)
04. Cécile de France, Hereafter
05. Melissa Leo, The fighter
Are we sposed to be taking Christina Aguilera in "Burlesque", or the movie in general, seriously?
Leading:
Annette Bening
Anne Hathaway
Nicole Kidman
Julia Roberts
Michelle Williams
Supporting:
Amy Adams
Helena Bonham Carter
Jessica Chastain
Julianne Moore
Dianne West
The Wrestler wasn't middlebrow?
Robin Wright Penn truly deserved Oscar nods, but she's never been nominated for Oscar. Next year hopefully she wins that coveted golden statue for her portrayal of Mary Surratt in "The Conspirator"; dare say she could sweep all major acting accolades because that character is full conflicts. To all people who believe in Robin Wright Penn's ability as an actress bend over backward and pray hard so that she could be the best actress Oscar next year. God bless.
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