Giggly Rosario Dawson & Angie Harmon announced the SAG nominations at 9:00 AM EST after being introduced by JoBeth Williams.
Though this is the last major clue as to where Oscar acting nominations will go, it is not the "this is it!" twin that many like to claim.
Important Differences From SAG to Oscar: Contrary to what you often read on the internet there is not significant overlap in the voting pools between SAG and Oscar. Unless they've recently changed their rules, SAG randomly chooses a sliver of its membership each year to do the nominations. Some miniscule percentage of them might be Academy members but the numbers don't add up to a big percentage. SAG is a mammoth union, representing 200,000 film, tv and background performers and all dues paying members can vote on the winners. Oscar's acting branch is infinitely harder to join; it's a final club on steroids to use The Social Network as handy 2010 reference. There are 1,205 voting actors in the Academy who all get nominating ballots. All of the Academy's 1,000+ actors are or were SAG members (having acted in films for years) but the other 198,795 SAG members are definitely not members of the Academy of Motion Picture Arts and Sciences.
Other key differences: SAG nominators are (statistically) fonder of child and very young adult actors than Oscar. They're also arguably more populist in their choices overall having given the big prizes to people from smash comedies like Renée Zellweger in Chicago (2002) or Johnny Depp in Pirates of the Caribbean (2003) and arguably more influenced by your place in the Hollywood food chain, choosing legends over newbies for wins in hotly contested contests like Bening beating Swank in 99/00, Day-Lewis over Brody in 02/03 or Christie beating Cotillard in 07/08. They are also not allowed to vote their own mind when it comes to "lead" versus "supporting" issues. Oscar voters may vote for you in whichever category they personally feel is correct. SAG voters may only vote for you in the category that your studio submits you in (which explains Keisha Castle Hughes' bizarre "supporting" citation at SAG for Whale Rider).
Nominations with commentary after the jump
2010 NOMINATIONS TELEVISION
Best Female Actor (Drama Series)
- Glenn Close (Damages)
- Mariska Hargitay (L&O: SVU is a Comedy)
- Julianna Marguiles (The Good Wife)
- Elisabeth Moss (Mad Men)
- Kyra Sedgwick (The Closer)
- Steve Buscemi (Boardwalk Empire)
- Bryan Cranston (Breaking Bad)
- Michael C Hall (Dexter)
- Jon Hamm (Mad Men)
- Hugh Laurie (House)
- Edie Falco (Nurse Jackie)
- Tina Fey (30 Rock)
- Jane Lynch (Glee)
- Sofia Vergara (Modern Family)
- Betty White (Hot in Cleveland)
Best Male Actor (Comedy Series)
- Alec Baldwin (30 Rock)
- Ty Burrell (Modern Family)
- Steve Carell (The Office)
- Chris Colfer (Glee)
- O'Neill (Modern Family)
Another terrific lineup. Well chosen.
Best Female Actor (Miniseries/Movie)
- Claire Danes (Temple Grandin)
- Catherine O'Hara (Temple Grandin)
- Julia Ormond (Temple Grandin)
- Winona Ryder (When Love is Not Enough)
- Susan Sarandon (You Don't Know Jack)
- John Goodman (You Don't Know Jack)
- Al Pacino (You Don't Know Jack)
- Dennis Quaid (That Special Relationship)
- Edgar Ramirez (Carlos)
- Patrick Stewart (Macbeth)
- Boardwalk Empire
- The Closer
- Dexter
- Teh Good Wife
- Mad Men
- 30 Rock
- Glee
- Hot in Cleveland
- Modern Family
- The Office
It wasn't enough to give Betty White one nomination when you can give her two. As much as I continue to love 30 Rock and admire Glee for casting actors who can actually sing... Modern Family deserves this ten-fold. Such a seamless cast, no weak spots; everyone is hilarious.
Stunt Ensemble (Series)
- Burn Notice
- CSI New York
- Dexter
- Southland
- True Blood
I'm confused how five series get nominated for stunts but only three movies? Last I checked movies had lots of stunts, too.
2010 NOMINATIONS FILM
 |
| Mother & Son (The Fighter). Can they both take home SAG & Oscar? |
Best Female Actor (Supporting Role)
- Amy Adams (The Fighter)
- Helena Bonham-Carter (The King's Speech)
- Mila Kunis (Black Swan)
- Melissa Leo (The Fighter)
- Hailee Steinfeld (True Grit)
- Christian Bale (The Fighter)
- John Hawkes (Winter's Bone)
- Jeremy Renner (The Town)
- Mark Ruffalo (The Kids Are All Right)
- Geoffrey Rush (The King's Speech
- Annette Bening (The Kids Are All Right)
- Nicole Kidman (Rabbit Hole)
- Jennifer Lawrence (Winter's Bone)
- Natalie Portman (Black Swan)
- Hilary Swank (Conviction)
Hilary Swank's surprise appearance here is noteworthy in that it shows how (still) hotly contested the Best Actress race is. The way I see it there are 3 locks (Bening, Portman, Lawrence) due to support for both the performances and the films which house them and then there is 1 probable but vulnerable (Kidman) due to support for performance but not the film and then there are still 6 women (Williams, Rapace, Moore, Swank, Swinton, Manville) trying to nab 1 remaining spot. Theoretically, any of them might for various reasons and 1, at least, will.
Best Male Actor (Leading Role)
- Jeff Bridges
- Robert Duvall
- Jesse Eisenberg
- Colin Firth
- James Franco
- Black Swan
- The Fighter
- The Kids Are All Rigth
- The King's Speech
- The Social Network
Stunt Ensemble
- Green Zone
- Inception
- Robin Hood
Your turn. Share opinions in the comments. Particularly about those crazy tight fifth spots in all four acting categories.
Related Post: SAG injustice (the ensemble category) BFCA & Globe nominations (good comparison points. In an unholy union of the three, you basically have your Oscar list)
Posts
74 comments:
I know very little about SAG so - they don't do supporting catagories? I'm seeing Danes, O'Hara and Ormond all in one catagory for Temple Gradin - and Ormond and O'Hara did fine work in that one, so I'm glad to see them recognized, but shouldn't they be in a supporting catagory?
I should probably shut up until Nat is finished typing.
hilary swank??? WTF!!! i thought she was already out of race by now... and no jacki weaver? no blue valentine? sounds crazy, but I hated even more than the GG nominations!
Bening vs. Swank. Round Three lol
And Noni is a double nominee!
I know it's a movies blog, but wth isn't Laura Linney nominated for The Big C?
And how in the world Jacki Weaver menages to be nominated for a GG and not for a SAG?
I'm surprised that only Kidman is getting any love for Rabbit Hole.
Swank nominated made my day.
If I counted correctly, 8 out of the 10 lead nominees were in the hollywood reporter roundtables.
never Thought Swank would make it this time...yayyyyy
Swank's surprise appearance is the only twisted/amusing thing in a very very boring list... but they voted for Bullock last year so what can you expect?!!
Well, some of these "surprises" were to be expected considering that the SAG always throws a few curve balls (I doubt we'll see Swank actually nominated by the Academy -- not in THIS strong a best-actress year). However, some "maybes" seem to have been solidified (who ever thought the voice of Meg Griffin would score an Oscar nod?).
There are a few "surprising" omissions, for sure. Some people I'd previously considered locks, like Andrew Garfield/Jacki Weaver. And no Gosling-Williams nominations! Boo.
Hillary Swank.....whoa.
Happy they nominated John Hawkes, though.
Wow....Swank!!! NO Ryan and Michelle that sucks...
I don't think they have given two lead actress to the same person, and they love awarding big stars... could Kidman win this ? Her reviews are strong enough.
If you bet on "not Topher Grace" at really long Vegas odds for "Which 'That 70's Show' Cast Member Gets an Oscar Nomination First"...I'd say you're getting ready to buy a brand new car.
Am I the only person on planet Earth who thinks Glee is awful? Terrible? Ridiculous? That it sucks?
Sure it's on the tv side, not the film side, and this is a film site - but Hot in Cleveland? Really?
jeff - If they don't give it to Bening, I think it will be Portman, not Kidman.
Oh who are we kidding? Of course Swank will win. :p
arkaan -- it is hilarious.
julia -- i don't know. i only hear great things.
janice -- yeah, sag does the same thing as the gLobes with TV splits for drama/comedy but not for supporting. it's weird.
Nat mentioned this in the article: Statistically more fond of younger people. Jacki Weaver will likely get the Oscar nom, but this showing means she will NOT get the win. Of the 8 people that missed a Globe, only 4 can be counted toward the "can you miss the Globe, hit the SAG and win" theory. Coburn, Arkin, Benigni and Gay Harden. Of those 3, only 1 managed to get a win without a SAG nom at the very least. (So, the winner would, most likely, be either Leo or HBC. (You can miss the SAG and be nommed. You can't miss the SAG and win.)
Christmas wish: If Kunis gets an Oscar nod, they'll feel guilty for snubbing the older Weaver and give the award to Bening to make it up to women over 45.
But maybe Kunis instead of HBC? She IS over 40, at least, right?
Garfield/Weaver snub saddens me.
Swank nom surprises and amuses me. They really want Bening/Swank Round 3, don't they?
Laura Linney snub (The Big C) disappoints me.
I'm sure we won't be seeing some of these names on the Oscar nominations list next year, though.
@James T: Considering Kunis has been a consistent presence on the supporting actress shortlist, I don't think she's the one knocking off Weaver.
Swank scoring a shocker Best Actress nomination at the Oscars is the only way I see Bening getting the trophy. That "rivalry" is well-known in the media, and suddenly that could become the angle, and it's difficult to win if you aren't part of the media pony race.
I think the Hawkes thing is a fluke for the Oscars, but would be exciting if he could make it (he's from near my hometown and I saw him in a play when I was little and before he had done anything of any note). Kunis, on the other hand, seems to have her nomination locked up.
troyhopper - Wasn't Kunis less frequently mentioned than the others except for Steinfeld? But Steinfeld is a more obvious nod since she has recieved more praise from critics (not critics awards) and she is lead.
@Volvagia Not true, it's more likely that Hailee Steinfeld won't make the cut.
Mila Kunis was ranked very low on most pundit's list a couple months ago. Even after winning that award at Venice, she flew under the radar. So, her rise is pretty amazing.
But Hilary? Oh lawd...please tell me there is no third Oscar for her! Anette Bening might cut her!
J: It was really between 4 people to get serious careers: Kunis, Grace, Kutcher and Valderama. Valderama has fallen into a role as character actor. Kutcher is about to appear in an Ivan Reitman movie. (Ivan hasn't done anything good since Ghostbusters. Hope his son doesn't end up the same way.) Grace is an annoying performer. His Traffic turn was Razzie worthy. So...Kunis.
I DID not mention who was going to be cut from the nomination ballot. All I said was "Weaver's not WINNING" because she missed the SAG. If I were to say "who's being cut from that ballot", I'd say Steinfeld.
Julia Ormond and Catherine O'hara over Judi Dench? No way! They wouldn't have been nominated if there were best ensemble in a miniserie or tv movie.
I cannot believe the best TV ensemble is actually on CBS right now. Good luck, Good Wife
BTW, can anyone explain what happened with Marcia Gay Harden back in 2001? I didn't follow the circuit back then (I'm afraid I am a convert from The Return of the King sweep in '03), but I'd love to understand what went on so that she could win without a SAG or a GG nomination...
@ Nat, why is Kidman vulnerable?
She's been nominated for every possible notable award out there AND this time even the SAGs nominated her, and they've only nominated her once before and it was for The Hours, which is when she won the Oscar too.
Kidman is locked for a nomination at the Oscars, in my opinion.
Duvall's a veteran, a legend, he's old and he's not a woman, so he'll get nominated too.
Also mentioned elsewhere: Josh Pence, one of the Winkleveiss (the body, not the face) was nominated as part of the ensemble. None of the women were (though only two really noteworthy in this sense: Ronney Mara, and the female lawyer who had the stupid film ending line, don't know her name).
Rather funny, that. Is this the first ensemble nomination that's all male?
Arkaan, that last line was indeed stupid as hell.
I bet it is the first all male lineup. One of my favorite post-SAG Award dissections is Nat looking at the Best Cast snubs-I'd imagine Rooney Mara would probably be on the top of the list, as she's the catalyst for the whole movie.
John Hawkes!
Julia -- i was the only Oscar pundit to call MARCIA & ED's nominations correctly that year. (it was my first year of public punditry). what happened was the film got off to a very late start with super minimal one-week qualifying run (near the peak of when those actually worked -- they don't work as well anymore thank god).
i had seen the picture and there was just no way that Oscar voters weren't going for those performances so I predicted them. it was just too baity and Oscar-wheelhouse. My guess is that people were nervous about awarding Kate Hudson so early in a career and for her first real role of not not knowing what she could or couldn't do (i.e. they weren't FULLY convinced... because sometimes they only care that the young woman is hot) and then this huge amazing lead performance was in the running from an industry veteran so they went for that intead.
I don't think Mila Kunis is a lock, but I'm liking her odds now. The film is peaking at the right time to get a slew of nominations and she very well may ride the wave to a nomination. I'm really thinking Hailee Steinfeld is going to get bumped up to Leading at the Oscars. There will be voters who see the film and go "supporting? No way" just like Keshia Castle-Hughes. Even with the Globe snubbing, True Grit feels like it's also going to hit at the right time for a slew of nominations. That opens up the fifth slot for Jackie Weaver, who I'm tempted to call a lock even without SAG. Is she known enough for such a small nomination pool to award her? Not in America. She's fine.
Maybe Saving Private Ryan was the 1st all male line-up?
The acting races are so exciting this year. There are like seven actors competing in each category. Who the hell is going to win Best Supporting Actress? I actually thought Weaver could make it all the way. Guess it's going to be Leo...
What about the Hurt Locker's cast? Was Evangeline Lily nominated? (her role is even smaller than Mara's in TSN)
OH NATHANIEL,
you are mentioning Swinton and Rapace as possible Best Actress nominees and NOT Lesley Manville??? :P
i know she isn't nominated for Globe/SAG, but she IS the NBR winner. And, I was writing to someone last night, it hasn't happened since 1990 (Mia Farrow) for a NBR Best Actress winner not to turn into an Oscar nominee.
alex -- that was an accident. i shall fix. but the post is now done with pictures. more posts to come later in the day obvs.
Seriously, Hilary Swank?! It might be somewhat funny that she was nominated together with Bening again, but over Michelle Williams ? Not funny anymore.
Halle Berry is in the lead actress race more than Noomi Rapace or Tilda Swinton are. But Hilary Swank? The SAGs wanted their Annette/Hilary round three, and that's what they got! Love it.
No Andrew Garfield? That really upsets me. I think he just lost his chance at an Oscar win.
But then there's John Hawkes! Might be my favorite nod of the film categories. So glad he was remembered. As great as Jennifer Lawrence was, she was greatly aided by both John Hawkes and Dale Dickey.
No Jacki Weaver? Surely all the critics wins/Globes nod balance out this snub, right? I think this is going to one of "The Fighter" ladies. I should't have dismissed it as just another boxing movie. It's definitely on my must-watch list now.
The SAGs usually love to surprise, and they did that today.
You really think Noomi Rapace has a chance to be nominated in a foreign role in the second sequel of a not great series? Isn't that like how you said The Dark Knight wasn't nommed because it was the seventh film in a series. I could see the argument that hollywood wants to reward her and make her a bigger star, but aren't they already doing that?
TV-
Nate, the Best Drama lists are full of actors from procedurals because those are essentially the only dramas made or watched nowadays!
I'm also constantly surprised by the praise heaped onto Chris Colfer. He's very one-note... sad gay or bitchy gay (ok, so two notes, but still one-dimensional).
Film-
I haven't even seen Blue Valentine and already I'm desperately pulling for nominations for Gosling and Williams. I think it's Manville v. Williams for that fifth spot (given to Swank at the SAGs).
Glad to see Eisenberg and Lawrence's campaigns strengthening. I wouldn't call Lawrence's a sure-bet yet (close), but think Eisenberg is definitely in.
What are the chances it's The Social Network v. Black Swan, not The King's Speech? I still think 'Social' will win.
I don't see the point in keeping an ensemble category in movies when they leave half of the cast out like they do with Kids and Network.
I thought Swank getting in would bode well for Bening but no actress has every repeated a win at SAG in the Lead Actress category. See Streep last year. It’s Portman’s Actor (that’s what they call their statuette) to lose. Melissa Leo wins SAG (character actresses are so beloved here). Kunis getting in, I see it, I joked here before that she was this year’s Marisa Tomei, and now I suspect I’m more spot-on than I realized.
God I hate Duvall’s nomination, his shutout from critics groups and the Globes gave me hope that old man wasn’t going to get sentimental votes. The Cuddly Bear got in and you have nothing special to add Nathaniel?
Nominations give me crazy thoughts - like 'John Hawkes could actually win the Oscar!' which is probably not going to happen.
Ok, Hot in Cleveland might be an even more insane nomination than The Tourist. If I am not mistaken the whole recent Betty White craze really got underway at the SAG Awards last year when she won the lifetime achievement award. I think they just want to acknowledge that.
HOW DO THEY LEAVE OFF ROONEY MARA AND RASHIDA JONES WHILE INCLUDING ARMIE HAMMER'S BODDY DOUBLE???
Heh, what a comeback for Noni! She made a really short appearance in Black Swan but in no way did she make me feel that way. My initial thought was The Kids Are Alright could be a possible win for best ensemble because although as much as I liked the ensemble case in Black Swan, like you said it was essentially Portman's one man show. And as for lead actress I'd replace Swank with Moore.
Dean -- i discuss this very thing in the new SAG INJUSTICE post.
Anyone who thinks that Kunis is better than Hershey in Black Swan shouldn't be allowed to give out awards or.. breathe.
Weaver gets nominated for a GG but not the SAG because the HFPA is a critics group (kinda) whose job is more or less to watch all films as they're released and SAG is made up of actor's who clearly didn't watch their screeners.
Weaver will always have the same problem... If you've seen the film, you'll nominate her, but if enough people don't watch their screener, she's not making it in.
(Frustrating for me, though I've seen the film, I was hoping to revist it on screener... Unfortunately it seems that Sony only shipped it to actors, and I'm but a lowly producer.
Drama television actress is more than just a bunch of procedural shows. You'd know that if you actually watched those shows. There's more character development on "The Good Wife" and "The Closer" than a lot of the crap that's out there in movie theaters right now. It's a strong field this year and shouldn't be so easily ridiculed.
1) I still think Wahlberg is going to get in with AMPAS. Sight unseen, it would be bizarre to nominate the hell out of The Fighter without nominating the man himself.
2) So psyched for Betty White and Hot in Cleveland. It doesn't reinvent the wheel, but all the actresses have great chemistry together, it's consistent and it's hilarious. Now, Wendie Malick is the best part, but I understand and support the White nom.
3) Can I say, selfishly, that I was excited about Swank's nom because it meant 4/5 of my Actress Psychic predix made it to SAG? I haven't even seen Conviction, I just want to win.
RT -- it's true that i don't watch those shows regularly so I shouldn't be so glib. BUT i have watched them all in the past and was not the least bit impressed. I just think the very format of procedurals does not allow for the types of writing and roles that would give actors enough to do.
but i could be wrong. Christina Hendricks on MAD MEN is a perfect example of someone giving me an entire human being while only actually allowed to say "office" type of business lines (in first season) so i suppose it's possible that stand-alone episodic procedurals might have some of this in their better episodes.
Swank in the actress line-up reminds me of what Amanda was saying in a conversation yesterday (?) about Michelle Williams not being as much as a "game player" - in Amanda's instance she was comparing Williams to Anne Hathaway, but the point is still the same. (And, Joachim Phoenix's rant about the Oscars a couple of years back.) I suspect what they both say is very true - that Swank is willing to promote, promote, promote, and Williams isn't. But that's just a guess.
The ladies of The Social Network weren't on their own title cards in the opening credits sequence. That's why they weren't included in ensemble. That was probably the case with all of those other snubs too.
Gah! How did Parenthood not get nominated for Ensemble? It's probably my second favorite drama series cast, after Mad Men of course, and it just seems to be something the guild would go for - a combo of veteran players, semi-famous personalities, and talented child actors.
I also find it odd how they decide who does or does not get included in the ensemble category for film, considering recurring guest stars are allowed to be included in the television ensemble categories. i.e. Iqbal Theba winning last year as part of the Glee ensemble
I'm appalled that the Screen Actors Guild has failed to nominate any gay male or bisexual male roles. It's a homophobic organization.
I really don't have anything against Hilary Swank but I AM SO PISSED at her nomination...SERIOUSLY??? I'm hoping that the SAG committee just didn't watch Blue Valentine, because both Michelle Williams and Ryan Gosling deserve lead acting noms...
...with prominent actors such as Kate Winslet, Ben Kingsley, and Robert DeNiro showing some public support for Blue Valentine, I'm hoping that the actors in the Academy will give it some notice...
Jason -
To start with, SAG did nominate Chris Colfer (cast member from Glee) as an individual. Both Colfer and his character are gay.
Secondly, since I'm assuming you're meaning films and not TV, can you name a male gay or bisexual role that's been a part of the awards conversation at all? I'm racking my brain to think if there were any notable gay characters in major films (outside of I Love You Phillip Morris and the lesbians of The Kids are All Right).
If you're pointing out that there aren't many gay or bi male characters in major Hollywood pictures, that's one argument... But on the premise that SAG is homophobic: you do know that like 99% of actors are gay, right? ;)
So happy for Sofia Vergara and Chris Colfer. Interesting that they're not in supporting, though.
ACTRESS: Rather odd that Swank made the cut... I fully expect Williams to take this spot. Manville has had a bad week.
ACTOR: I am completely underwhelmed by Bridges and Duvall. Here's hoping that Gosling gets in.
SUPP. ACTRESS: This Kunis thing is really going to happen, isn't it? I'd argue that both Hershey and Ryder are better. More and more, this is looking like a race between Adams and Leo, with Leo the front-runner.
SUPP. ACTOR: Very happy for Renner, but that movie has been entirely forgotten. Garfield has that spot in the bag.
Now it’s getting really exciting. I totally feel like doing some Oscar predicting myself, and rant a little about why.
DISCLAIMER 1: I have only seen six 2010 movies so far, so practically nothing, not even my “would like to see on this list but won’t”s is based on what movies/performances I have actually seen, but just on what looks good on paper to me.
Those six were, from which I liked the most to the least (though I really liked them all): Kick-Ass – The Runaways – Shutter Island – Harry Potter 7.1 – Inception – The Social Network. The only remotely award worthy performances I’ve seen would be (I’ll list them because I also want to have a chance to talk about something with a some more solid base than “looks good on paper to me”):
Lead Actor
Leonardo DiCaprio – Shutter Island
Jesse Eisenberg – The Social Network
Winner: DiCaprio, I never really liked him, but he’s really very good in this
Lead Actress
Dakota Fanning – The Runaways
Kristen Stewart – The Runaways
Winner: K-Stew, while Dakota is good but tries a little too hard (as usual), she seems to be born for the role
Supporting Actor
Andrew Garfield – The Social Network
Armie Hammer – The Social Network
Ben Kingsley – Shutter Island
Michael Shannon – The Runaways
Mark Strong – Kick-Ass
Justin Timberlake – The Social Network
Winner: Michael Shannon, no doubt
Supporting Actress
Marion Cotillard – Inception
Chloe Moretz – Kick-Ass
Emily Mortimer – Shutter Island
Brenda Song – The Social Network
Winner: Chloe – don’t get me wrong, I would consider the Oscars nuts and having lost every credibility if they’d nominate her (or the movie), but she’s great in a totally not oscary way, and so is the whole movie
Director
I quite frankly don’t really feel able to judge that at all
DISCLAIMER 2: I hate it, when the Oscars feel like an almost exact copy of the Golden Globes (or some other less prominent award), like last year. There has to be some distinction, some element of surprise, some prove that they have an opinion of their own, and that is why I would hate to predict exactly what everybody else predicts. But to some degree of course it’s inevitable, especially at this point of the race.
(to be continued)
PREDICTIONS
Best Actor
Robert Duvall – Get Low
Jesse Eisenberg – The Social Network
James Franco – 127 Hours
Colin Firth – The King’s Speech
Ryan Gosling – Blue Valentine
Winner:
Firth, because of “A Single Man”, having been predicted all year by everybody, and winning everything
Best Actress
Annette Bening – The Kids Are All Right
Halle Berry – Frankie and Alice
Jennifer Lawrence – Winter’s Bone
Lesley Manville – Another Year
Natalie Portman – Black Swan
Winner:
Bening, because: due
Best Supporting Actor
Christian Bale – The Fighter
Ed Harris – The Way Back
Sam Rockwell – Conviction
Mark Ruffalo – The Kids Are All Right
Geoffrey Rush – The King’s Speech
Winner:
Harris, because: overdue
Winner (if Harris is not nominated):
Bale, because it’s reportedly a brilliant performance
Best Supporting Actress
Amy Adams – The Fighter
Helena Bonham Carter – The King’s Speech
Melissa Leo – The Fighter
Julianne Moore – The Kids Are All Right
Jacki Weaver – Animal Kingdom
Winner:
Leo, because she just sounds by far most deserving except maybe for Weaver, who’s too unknown and too not universally embraced to win, plus the Academy probably still loves her because of “Frozen River”…
except that makes every winning actor I predicted at least 50 years old, which seems wrong… therefore I could also see Amy Adams winning. She’s kind of their sweetheart after all, isn’t she? Or is she just a has-been sweetheart?
Best Director
Mike Leigh – Another Year
Darren Aronofsky – Black Swan
David O. Russell – The Fighter
Christopher Nolan – Inception
David Fincher – The Social Network
Winner:
Fincher, because: making up for previous snubs (I’m of course not talking about Benjamin Button)
Best Picture
127 Hours
Another Year
Black Swan
The Fighter
Inception
The Kids Are All Right
The King’s Speech
The Social Network
Toy Story 3
Winter’s Bone
Winner:
The Social Network, because Fincher will win best director, and it just seems like the absolute frontrunner, if only by a nose’s length
(to be continued)
ADDITIONAL NOTES
Actor
Weakest link: Robert Duvall – no Golden Globe nod, no love for the movie anywhere – but without him this extremely young line-up would be even younger, and he is a real Oscar regular
Also vulnerable: James Franco & Ryan Gosling – they are so young… older than Eisenberg, but he’s safe!
Filling in: Mark Wahlberg… who else? I don’t think Jeff Bridges, I never bought that True Grit will win much Academy love… is there anybody else really?
Would like to see on this list but won’t:
no one, actually
Actress
Weakest link: Lesley Manville – it read to me like she was the closest to being locked after Bening all year, but with no Golden Globe nod and no SAG nod?
Also vulnerable: Halle Berry – but I’m pretty sure about her, because after 2000/2001 the Oscars were called racist because the total lack of black nominees in the acting categories, and since then this never happened again. And she happens to be the only black performer who has been in the talks at all in any category.
Filling in: 6th Nicole Kidman – Rabbit Hole never sounded like a big player to me, and it has a late release, so I don’t really think she’s in, but with Globe and SAG nod in her big I see her as a clear sixth
7th Julianne Moore – but I don’t really believe in two lead nods for the same film
8th Anne Hathaway – everybody has predicted her since April… though lately everyone seems cooled down about her…
Would like to see on this list but won’t:
Anne Hathaway and(/or) Michelle Williams –
both not impossible, but the competition is probably too strong. I would like to see them get their second Oscar nods both in the same year, because they somehow belong together for me. United by the mutual fate of having a gay cowboy husband ;-) , similar age and similar careers. Though Hathaway seems always a step ahead of Williams, who I personally prefer much though.
Supporting Actor
This line-up is very optimistic of me, but it looks so cool. Except for Rush, I refused to believe that he and HBC are locked for nods for as long as I could, but now I just can’t do it anymore. Maybe the bitching about the movie on this blog made me underestimate the awards bodies’ love for something like it.
Weakest link: Ed Harris – no Globe or SAG nod, no love for the movie, late release
Also vulnerable: Sam Rockwell – no Globe or SAG nod, no love for the movie
Filling in: 6th Andrew Garfield – because of love for the movie
7th Jeremy Renner – because of Globe and SAG nod, but really… why? Does anyone know what that movie is about, when it came out, who else is in it besides director Ben Affleck? Anything?
Justin Timberlake seems now impossible, he would have needed a Globe nod I think.
Would like to see on this list but won’t:
Michael Shannon!!!
(to be continued)
(to be continued)
Supporting Actress
Weakest link: Julianne Moore – reportedly she’s actually co-lead with even more screen time than Bening, but I don’t really believe in two lead nods for the same film, but I want to believe she’ll be in anyway. And there seems to be no way Bening will be nominated as supporting.
Also vulnerable: no one really, as far as I can see
Filling in: 6th Mila Kunis – if they want to suck and do the exact same line-up as the Globes, but I don’t really see it happening. Despite the line-up above somehow seems too old just as the Best Actor line-up seems too young.
7th Kimberly Elise – see Halle Berry: there has been some talk about someone from “For Coloured Girls” slipping in, and she seems to be the most widely praised of them.
8th Barbara Hershey – but… no Globe nod? No SAG nod? Is there still a chance?
9th Lesley Manville – if she doesn’t get nominated in Lead, maybe she has a shot here?
I don’t think Hailee Steinfeld, as mentioned before, I never bought that True Grit will win much Academy love … why? This is probably not an argument, but…: it’s a remake!
Would (have) like(d) to see on this list but won’t:
Barbara Hershey –
true, I would have almost predicted her, but with no Globe and no SAG nod, I just didn’t dare. I don’t have to see Black Swan to know she should be in. Evil moms rock (on screen, not in real life of course), and Hershey has always been really good and one hasn’t really heard anything of her for just too long…
Elle Fanning –
I’ve wanted to predict her all year, just because I find it so funny to imagine Dakota freaking out over it, plus I find her much more sympathetic than Dakota. But: no Globe nod, no SAG nod, late release…
Michelle Williams (Shutter Island) –
see Michelle Williams under additional notes on Best Actress, but: early release, no love for the movie, very limited not really worthy role
Winona Ryder (Black Swan) –
time for her to come back, but: reportedly very limited role, no awards love for her so far (and the Golden Globes used to love her more than the Oscars did back in her day…)
Director
Weakest link: Mike Leigh – no love for the movie at all, but I think there should be a veteran director/Oscar regular in the line-up, and he seems not impossible
Also vulnerable: no one, not really as far as I can see
Filling in: 6th Danny Boyle – “127 Hours” is none of the front running movies, but he has some sort of cool factor – doesn’t he? – and he is an Oscar winner who could become a regular
7th Tom Hooper – overall love for the movie aside, I’ve never heard of him, and with “The King’s Speech” not really being the front running movie, I think more prominent names are more likely
Would like to see on this list but won’t:
Martin Scorsese –
just because he’s Martin Scorsese, and also because I liked “Shutter Island”
Picture
Weakest link: Another Year
Also vulnerable: 127 Hours, Winter’s Bone, The Fighter
Filling in: don’t really care
Would like to see on this list but won’t:
No one, not really
Quote "L&O: SVU is a Comedy" - what the... *lol* I actually like to watch it occasionally, and some episodes are really good imho.
The Brits are a very strong voting block, so I think that there will be a surprise nominee in Lesley Manville, at this point. Although I hope not at the expense of Nichole Kidman.
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